The 2026 Midterm Elections, One Year Out, Looks Good for Democrats

[rareboy]

Well, there you go....Marj nails it again...it seems like a really stupid move to tell the people who aren't supporting the person you decide to crown that their vote shouldn't count?

One way to get a whole tranche of voters to stay home in November...although Texas MAGA hardcores are going to turn out and vote lockstep. I do see though that if he picks Paxton, Talarico juat picks up a whole lot of republican 'independent' votes.

 

[rareboy]

​

The question is...are the voters of Starr County so sure of Cornyn or Paxton winning that they just stayed home...or has TrumpCo. lost this border county? And does it matter?

As of the 2020 census, its population was 65,920. According to Wiki, the racial makeup of the county was 33.1% White, 0.1% Black or African American, 0.4% American Indian and Alaska Native, 0.2% Asian, <0.1% Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander, 19.1% from some other race, and 47.1% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino residents of any race comprised 97.7% of the population.

The Dem voters pulled about 10% of the county pop. to the polls or much more significant, about 1/3 of the 19,868 households in the county, although there were likely many instances of more than one adult in the household casting a vote.

And for Talarico

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/texas-senate-results#democratic-primary

 

[NotHardUp1]

A bit of fallout from Jesse Jackson's funeral, with multiple news outlets reporting it: https://www.hindustantimes.com/worl...peeches-they-didn-t-know-101773001580926.html

The discontent within the Democratic Party continues to surface at times like these.

Reading between the lines, I'd guess that Mr. Jackson's son echoed his father's resentment at being passed over on major tickets or cabinets when big Democrats were elected with critical black support. Unfortunately, the whole story is a bit more complex, as his "love child" helped scuttle his market value on the national political scene. Times changed later, but Jackson was then too old.

It is rare to find three US presidents eulogizing anyone in person other than a dead president. That Mr. Jackson's son didn't find that honor to be enough is a pity, both on a personal level and politically.

 

[KaraBulut]

A bit of fallout from Jesse Jackson's funeral, with multiple news outlets reporting it: https://www.hindustantimes.com/worl...peeches-they-didn-t-know-101773001580926.html

The discontent within the Democratic Party continues to surface at times like these.

Reading between the lines, I'd guess that Mr. Jackson's son echoed his father's resentment at being passed over on major tickets or cabinets when big Democrats were elected with critical black support. Unfortunately, the whole story is a bit more complex, as his "love child" helped scuttle his market value on the national political scene. Times changed later, but Jackson was then too old.

It is rare to find three US presidents eulogizing anyone in person other than a dead president. That Mr. Jackson's son didn't find that honor to be enough is a pity, both on a personal level and politically.

I watched most of the major speeches. I chuckled at some of the praise directed toward Rev Jackson Sr's children.

Jesse Jr had a stint in Congress ended when was sent to prison. Jesse Jr is bipolar and has had his share of problems.

Yusuf is the brother who didn't follow in the family business. Instead, he's involved in capitalistic ventures and has been involved in some of the scandals that follow the moneychangers in the temple.

White funerals almost always whitewash over the faults of the deceased. Black funerals are often a little more Calvinistic and frank about the shortcomings of the deceased. Most of what I saw was a political event, with a nice song from Jennifer Hudson (who appeared to have a dead animal draped across her left shoulder).

 

[NotHardUp1]

Jesse Jr had a stint in Congress ended when was sent to prison. Jesse Jr is bipolar and has had his share of problems.

Without looking it up, I thought I remembered him being the one caught with money laundering, having thousands of dollars in his freezer at home when the FBI raided his home, but I wasn't sure I wasn't remembering Representative Ford's son.

 

[KaraBulut]

Without looking it up, I thought I remembered him being the one caught with money laundering, having thousands of dollars in his freezer at home when the FBI raided his home, but I wasn't sure I wasn't remembering Representative Ford's son.

That's likely to be William "Cold Cash" Jefferson [D-LA].

Jefferson's numbers were petty theft compared to Jesse Jr's. Jesse's numbers were closer to a million. I think the Feds got him for embezzling something like $800K but they suspected the amounts were larger. Jesse, like his father, made enemies on both sides of the aisle, so not many people shed a tear when he resigned from Congress.

 

[NotHardUp1]

That's likely to be William "Cold Cash" Jefferson [D-LA].

Jefferson's numbers were petty theft compared to Jesse Jr's. Jesse's numbers were closer to a million. I think the Feds got him for embezzling something like $800K but they suspected the amounts were larger. Jesse, like his father, made enemies on both sides of the aisle, so not many people shed a tear when he resigned from Congress.

Yeah, I did remember it was in Baton Rouge or New Orleans. It's been probably more than 20 years ago, so I'm claiming fair game on forgetting details.

I am truly sorry for Jackson's legacy to be tarnished by the misdirection, just as MLK's name was damaged by his children's lawsuits against each other. Great men do not necessarily have great children.

 

[KaraBulut]

Latest polling results for the US Senate seat currently held by John Cornyn [R-TX]:

Talarico leads both Cornyn and Paxton - Public Policy Polling

Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45. While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are...

www.publicpolicypolling.com

Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds no meaningful difference in electability between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. Cornyn trails James Talarico 44-43 and Paxton trails Talarico 47-45.

While Talarico is seen favorably by Texans (a +6 favorability at 41/35) Paxton and Cornyn are unpopular. Cornyn is more unpopular though. His net favorability is -28 (25/53) while Paxton’s is -24 (30/54).

Ken Paxton, the guy who took bribes, was charged with a felony, is in the process of getting divorced for cheating on his wife and is on his second mistress while still married, is polling +4 in favorability over John Cornyn. Let that sink in.

 

[rareboy]

But texans love their corrupt philandering politicians.....Talarico doesn't have this in the bag by a long shot.

 

[KaraBulut]

But texans love their corrupt philandering politicians.....Talarico doesn't have this in the bag by a long shot.

Talarico might be the right messenger for the "absolute power corrupts absolutely" message.

In the interview that he gave with Colbert, he talked about how Christian nationalists aren't Christians. He talked about how their involvement politics has robbed religion of its ability to be the moral compass of society. The sexual predation going on in the Christian church isn't new but the epidemic level of male pastors being arrested in the south is a sign that they have lost their way.

At 4:20:

Talarico's biggest threat isn't Paxton or Cornyn. It's the men in the boardrooms of oil companies in Houston, in banks in Dallas and in the Petroleum Club in Midland.

 

[KaraBulut]

In an overlooked race, there's an interesting match-up in Mississippi.

In October, 2022, President Joe Biden nominated Scott Colom to an open seat on the District Court in the Northern District of Mississippi. Colum's nomination was supported by Sen Roger Whicker [R-MS], Rep Bennie Thompson [D-MS] and two former Mississippi governors.

The nomination was blocked by the other senator from Mississippi, Sen Cindy Hyde-Smith [R-MS], who claimed that Colom supported trans rights and had accepted money from George Soros.

Because revenge is best served cold, Scott Colom is running as a Democrat to take Cindy Hyde-Smith's seat in the Senate. Turnout for the Democratic primary was unusual high for a off-year election.

 

[KaraBulut]

Another interesting sign.

Sen Rand Paul [R-KY] plans on running for President in 2028. He won't make it far in the primary and it's unlikely he'll be able to raise enough money to make it past the first few states.

But... the Kentucky Republican Party is worried that they might lose the Senate seat, so they're changing State law to allow Sen Paul to run for President without having to resign from the Senate.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article314935719.html

In politics, candidates usually can only run for one office at a time.

But Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and other federal officeholders would, by law, be able to run for reelection and president in 2028 under a bill advancing in the GOP-led state legislature.

 

[rareboy]

Another Paul trying to be the spoiler for the Dems.

He can fuck the fuck off.

 

[CoolBlue71]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2036588602881180137

Special elections were held Tuesday 03.24.2026 in the No. 3 most-populous state Florida.

Republican underperformances.

Democratic overperfomances.

Two Democratic pickups:

Source:

Live Results: March 24 Florida Legislative Special Elections - 270toWin

Vacancies in three GOP-held seats are on the ballot. Of most interest is the Palm Beach district that includes Mar-a-Lago

www.270towin.com

 

[rareboy]

Any pick-up is a good pick-up, but the only ones that will really count are those that flip State houses and Congress. Or at least hamstring the GQP on a state level.

 

[rareboy]

Follow the money.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Now that April has arrived … U.S. president Donald Trump’s job approval numbers are so terrible to a point that any source you can come across—even with some varying numbers—indicate he in a deep hole. That means who are also in a deep hole are the 2026 congressional Republicans.

In early-May, timed six months to the scheduled date of the 2026 United States midterm elections, I will write and post a quick summary of what I am estimating may play out.

I will, in the meantime, recommend and post a link to an interesting piece by Nate Silver.

How popular is Donald Trump?

Silver Bulletin approval ratings for President Trump — and all presidents since Truman.

www.natesilver.net

 

[NotHardUp1]

You can be sure the speech tonight was Trump's "Project Hail Mary" as he desperately is trying to sell his distraction as a noble act.

Even his dense followers understand that Mideast Wars are losers, inherently.

Predators can smell fear. It will be interesting to see what the GOP elite will do as they observe this flailing. If I held policies on Mr. Trump's life, I would be a worried insurer.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Multiple news outlets are reporting Kamala Harris' public signals that she intends to run.

If she does, I do not see her having the standing to win primaries, but if we see anything like 2020 instead of a strong candidate to lead the Democrats, the fracture could easily allow a GOP to win, just as it happened in 2024.

 

[KaraBulut]

Multiple news outlets are reporting Kamala Harris' public signals that she intends to run.

If she does, I do not see her having the standing to win primaries, but if we see anything like 2020 instead of a strong candidate to lead the Democrats, the fracture could easily allow a GOP to win, just as it happened in 2024.

Reminder: Kamala Harris got 75,017,613 votes in 2024 - more than any President, except for Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. And even then, the margin was the 4th closest margin in the past 65 years. Harris got 10,000,000 more votes than Hillary and 13,000,000 more than Trump in 2016. She got more votes than Trump did in 2020.

Harris was not the problem. Biden was the problem. His administration and the national Democratic party managed to turn out 6,000,000 fewer voters in 2024 compared to 2020, against a candidate that anyone should have been able to beat. The fact that Harris ended up the candidate can be squarely blamed on Biden and his advisors who should have set Harris up as the candidate after the 2022 midterms.

Trump has been deeply unpopular for 10 years. The fact that the Democrats can't take him down is on the Democrats.