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The expanding Israel-Hamas war

Norri said:
Since the Ukraine was part of the USSR during WW2 isn’t everything you said about Russia also true of the Ukraine? Their demographics are remarkably similar and the Ukraine still cuts off its draft age at 25 so clearly they are concerned with their future population.
And I doubt Russia is the only country with more women over 40 than under……heck the Ukraine is probably one of them……..and the Chinese too.
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It's something that Ukraine does need to worry about.

  • Ukraine birth rate for 2025 is 8.46, a 0.91% decline from 2024.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2024 was 8.54, a 51.82% increase from 2023.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2023 was 5.63, a 0.95% decline from 2022.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2022 was 5.68, a 18.6% decline from 2021.


en.wikipedia.org

Demographics of Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
In July 2023, Reuters reported that due to refugee outflows, the population of Ukrainian-controlled areas may have decreased to 28 million, a steep decline from Ukraine's 2020 population of almost 42 million.

This drop is in large part due to the ongoing Ukrainian refugee crisis and loss of territory caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which resulted in mass emigration from the Ukrainian people. A low birth rate and a high death rate are also affecting the demographic decline. The most recent (and only) census of post-Soviet Ukraine occurred in 2001, and much of the information presented is potentially inaccurate or outdated.

Since 2021, the Ukrainian fertility rate has fallen below 1.3, and is now one of the lowest in the world.
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China's problem is well documented. Their "one child policy" backfired, as Chinese women chose elective abortion of female fetuses or in some cases, infanticide of female children.

Sex-ratio imbalance in China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
KaraBulut said:
It's something that Ukraine does need to worry about.

  • Ukraine birth rate for 2025 is 8.46, a 0.91% decline from 2024.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2024 was 8.54, a 51.82% increase from 2023.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2023 was 5.63, a 0.95% decline from 2022.
  • Ukraine birth rate for 2022 was 5.68, a 18.6% decline from 2021.
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It’s something most countries need to worry about, in the developed world I believe Israel is the only country at above replacement level and while the US is better off than most the fact that, moving forward, women will dominate every college graduating class and hence dominate the business class it should be expected that our birth rate in going to continue to decrease maybe at a faster rate.

And those demographics have influenced the way this war has been fought, on the Ukraine side the draft age is one sign and on the Russian side any mobilization has seen a backlash possibly because there are no longer families with 6 or 7 children and if you only have 1or 2 losing one to war is devastating.

Demographics will play a major role in any Taiwan China conflict as both are old and aging very fast.
 
Could dockworkers help blockade Israel?

www.politico.eu

Israel on the docks as workers of the Med unite

Presented by Amazon By SARAH WHEATON with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Contact us on X @NicholasVinocur @swheaton @TimRoss_1 | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser HOWDY. …
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu
 
According to a WaPo poll released this weekend, American Jews are turning against Netayahu and his cabinet of far-right extremists over the war in Gaza.

www.jpost.com

Poll finds US Jews critical of Gaza war, Benjamin Netanyahu | The Jerusalem Post

While Jews blame Hamas for the war, many have also waned in their support of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's war tactics, a Washington Post poll found.
www.jpost.com www.jpost.com
Majority of US Jews think Israel committed war crimes, 40% say guilty of genocide in Gaza - poll
While Jews blame Hamas for the war, many have also waned in their support of PM Benjamin Netanyahu's war tactics, a Washington Post poll found.

Many American Jews disapprove of Israel’s conduct of the Gaza war, with 61% saying Israel has committed war crimes and about four in 10 saying it is guilty of genocide, according to a poll.

Poll-takers in The Washington Post survey were found to be especially unhappy with the government in Israel, with 68% giving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a negative rating, including 48% rating his leadership as “poor,” a 20% increase from a Pew Research Center poll five years ago.
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The original article is here (paywalled):
 
Well that is at least something.

But 60% apparently don't and we need to follow the money and the influence.

Too many US Jewish people still support Israel's aims in Gaza and would apparently happily see genocide as vengeance for the kidnapped and killed hostages.

When 90% of US Jewish people are not only against the slaughter and actually influencing US policy in Irsael to make it stop...then we will have something.

By the way...is Trump so desperate to get the Nobel Prize that he forced some kind of unenforceable back room deal on Hamas and Netanyahu.

Expect it to fail the moment the prize is awarded.
 
Alistair said:
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I've been watching the videos from Tel Aviv of people celebrating the ceasefire deal that they believe will get the remaining hostage [bodies] returned to Israel.

Maybe I'm just cynical about Middle Eastern politics but it seems like this is another Netanyahu Charlie-Brown-and-the football moment. Netanyahu knows that when the Gaza slaughter is over, he's likely to lose power. Netanyahu's political survival was the motivation for Netanyahu's combative relationship with Biden and Obama and his sycophantic relationship with Trump. It's likely that the end of the "war on Hamas" will mean that Bibi and Mrs Netanyahu (his 3rd wife) may end up in criminal court and possibly, prison.

Netanyahu went too far with bombing Qatar to kill Hamas members who were meeting to consider the terms of yet another cease fire agreement. This is always the pattern: Netanyahu reaches a point that Arafat reached, where peace was in reach but it would cost him power with his own people. And like Arafat, Netanyahu finds a way to poison the well at the last moment to keep the conflict going and keep himself in power.

Although the other view might be, "Gaza is uninhabitable, will be an IDF-controlled police state and is in a famine... and Netanyahu's popularity ratings soared, so maybe he accomplished what he wanted or needed to accomplish"?

 
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I think Israel got exactly what it hoped for out of this.

Some martyrs. Billions in aid. An excuse for Palestinian genocide. More land and seafront. Revenge for some tribal battle from 3000 years ago.
 
Notably absent from the "bullet point agreement" is a mention of when the free press will be able to get into Gaza and give us the truth about what has happened there. Israel has blocked western press from entering Gaza. The few hundred Palestinian and Al Jazeeran journalists who have been inside Gaza have been "in the wrong place at the wrong time" when the IDF decided to drop a bomb on "Hamas".

The numbers we've been getting out of Gaza on the number people murdered, number of children maimed, number of people suffering from severe malnutrition and disease have been controlled by Hamas and the Netanyahu government.

The estimates are currently that 67,000 Gazans have been killed. What I'm hearing from friends reading press reports countries in the Middle East is that it's likely to be over 100,000. There's so much rubble and so little equipment to clear it that there's likely to be thousands of bodies buried under the multi-story buildings that the IDF has targeted with bunker-buster bombs which leveled entire buildings.

Two US Administrations - one Democratic and one Republican- have sat by and enabled what has happened. It's not only the reputation of Israel that has taken a hit in the global community. This is also another colossal black mark on the United States. If the bungled Iraqi and Afghanistan conflicts weren't bad enough, the US has sat by while Russia pulverized Syria; sat silent while Israel used American weapons to bomb Iran, Qatar, Syria, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Yemen claiming "the war on Hamas" as justification; and while millions of people were starved while Israel blockaded aid shipments from other countries and the UN. The Trump Administration gutted USAID, which would be a major source of getting food, medicine and humanitarian aid into Gaza.

It's a generational change in how the US will be viewed in the middle east.
 
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Like anyone expects Netanyahu to keep the peace.
This whole thing was a hal mary pass to try to get Trump the Nobel Prize
and now that has failed, Gaza will now just be about real estate.

im.jpg​
 
Ms Rachel, real name Rachel Accurso, is a YouTube creator who focuses on music and language development in infants and toddlers. Earlier this year, Ms Rachel made social media posts decrying the suffering of children in Gaza, pointing out that Israels campaign against "Hamas" had killed possibly as many as 20,000 innocent Gazan children. Accurso has done similar content calling attention to the plight of children in Ukraine and and in warn-torn areas of Africa and she has been a fundraiser for the Save the Children charity.

For daring to mention the suffering of Gazan children, she has been accused of supporting Hamas and "spreading Hamas propaganda", with one Israeli activist group sending a letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi suggesting that Ms Rachel should be investigated by the FBI.... the same Pam Bondi that accused the Biden Administration of "weaponizing the government".

nypost.com

Exclusive | YouTube star Ms. Rachel should be investigated for spreading Hamas propaganda over posts about Gaza kids, antisemitism group tells AG Bondi

YouTube’s top toddler whisperer, Ms. Rachel, should be investigated over whether she’s being paid to spread Hamas-aligned propaganda for her posts about the deaths of kids in Gaza, a major antisemi…
nypost.com nypost.com
YouTube star Ms. Rachel should be investigated for spreading Hamas propaganda over posts about Gaza kids, antisemitism group tells AG Bondi

YouTube’s top toddler whisperer, Ms. Rachel, should be investigated over whether she’s being paid to spread Hamas-aligned propaganda for her posts about the deaths of kids in Gaza, a major antisemitism group tells Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Ms. Rachel, real name Rachel Griffin Accurso, has become the modern equivalent of Mister Rogers, educating and entertaining millions of young kids with her “Songs for Littles” streaming shows — which have been viewed more than 10 billion times.

But the Jewish civil rights watchdog group StopAntisemitism said Ms. Rachel is not so sweet.
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Missile strikes and attacks by soldiers are not part of a Cease Fire and their very existence means there is NOT in fact a Cease Fire.
 
Israel's anti-free speech pressure on major media outlets cost Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) $150,000 in fines for firing a journalist for making a personal post about starvation in Gaza.

www.rnz.co.nz

ABC ordered to pay $150,000 fine for unlawfully sacking journalist and presenter Antoinette Lattouf

Lattouf was sacked for reasons including her political opinions.
www.rnz.co.nz www.rnz.co.nz
ABC ordered to pay $150,000 fine for unlawfully sacking journalist and presenter Antoinette Lattouf

The Federal Court previously heard Lattouf's five-day radio presenting contact in Sydney was cut short after she shared a Human Rights Watch post about starvation being used as a tool of war in Gaza to her personal Instagram account.

Justice Rangiah found the decision was made to appease pro-Israel lobbyists behind a campaign of complaints.

He said the ABC had terminated Lattouf's employment for reasons "including that she held a political opinion opposing the Israeli military campaign in Gaza".

The judge previously found the journalist had been given "advice" that it would be best not to post anything controversial about Gaza, as opposed to a direction not to do so.
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This is what happens when you force two parties play nice when neither of them want to. Hamas has been running around Gaza settling scores with anyone they believe is a threat to their continued rule in Gaza.

If you want to force people to make peace you need to use force……ironic ain’t it.
 
Norri said:
...If you want to force people to make peace you need to use force……ironic ain’t it.
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My take on it is a little different. They only get along when they have a third party that they both hate... the Persians, the Romans, the Ottomans, a merciless tyrant dictator...
 
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