The Looming November 23rd Deadline

[rareboy]

Well kids, in order to get a headstart on ramping up the rhetoric and preparing for the next crisis to rock the financial world and scare people fucking stupid before the great Christmas spending season gets underway, thereby ensuring an even bleaker 2012 economic environment.....

Just remember, only 13 more days until the SuperCommittee deadline to trim 1.2 tril out of spending.

And remember...everything is on the table lol. Except defense and taxes I imagine.

The committee is charged with issuing a recommendation by November 23, 2011 for at least $1.5 trillion in additional deficit reduction steps to be undertaken over a ten‐year period.[4][8][16] This would be the second installment of deficit reduction measures. Possible areas to be examined by the committee include: revenue increases, including raising taxes; tax reforms, such as simplifying the tax code and eliminating some tax breaks and loopholes; military spending cuts; and measures to reform and slow the growth of entitlement programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.[15] According to White House economics adviser Gene Sperling, "everything is on the table."[17]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress_Joint_Select_Committee_on_Deficit_Reduction

Interesting that there is almost nothing coming out of the legislature these days on this game being
played.......

I suspect that they are going to deliver a huge

 

[MoltenRock III]

My guess is that Congress will do what it always does, which is: punt the financial football to the next Congress in 2013 to deal with. They will not let the auto-triggered cuts take place. The entire thing will be political theater at it's most ridiculous.

 

[JayHawk]

I actually think they will come to the table with tax code overhaul to remove loopholes, military cuts because we are already taking measures to absorb the cuts, and entitlement program cuts. I think it will be across the board austerity type measures to get government spending under control.

But we will see.

I do not put it past them to punt BUT it seems agreed into law that they will do one or the other. (come up with a plan or take 1.2 trillion in cuts regardless)

I sincerely hope one of those two happens.

 

[MoltenRock III]

Congress over the past 40 years IIRC, has "untrigged" previous "triggers" almost unanimously except for a brief stint (3 years) during Bush Sr and Clinton admins.

 

[JayHawk]

Oh I know but most of those were behind the scenes nobody is looking type ordeals.

I sincerely doubt our bought and paid for news sources can ignore this after the unnecessary political drama that played out this summer. That and the politicians will be looking to gain off the political drama.

If the current feeling towards our leadership doesn't cook all of their gooses next election cycle the drama playing off this failure would do so without a doubt. That and Moody's still downgraded US debt (with no real consequence mind you) but they said they did so because measures failed to take enough affirmative and positive action on our debt. They would be required to downgrade further if the deal they thought was progress but not nearly enough fails to be executed.

So for many factors this will be huge news.

And RB don't get your hope up that this will retard spending. the current climate is already retarding spending. All but three major retailers reported less than predicts earnings a couple days ago. This will be an amazingly shitty year in consumption.

 

[rareboy]

You all know what this means don't you....handmade Christmas gifts....

 

[BostonPirate]

I think its more likely that they will pass a bill ammending the prior one, extending the due date of the agreement.

I expect them to do that until ohhh... novemberish 2012?

There is no law that cannot be amended. Constitutional amendments take forever but they are even possible.

I am of the belief that the simplest answer is the most likely. The idea that they are going to agree is ... not likely.. that is complicated thing. The idea that the dems will alllow medicare to be killed are nonexistent, and the GOP wont go for the Millionaire tax.

What all of them WILL agree on is saving their hides and punting.

And I know that they say this one is non puntable.

Its only non puntable until the law that makes it so is ammended.

I think the turd blossoms in the congress will agree on that and a payraise, with bipartizan support.

 

[rareboy]

[Linked Image: Removed by Moderator]

 

[Kulindahr]

I'm going through a very discouraged period right now, and it's hard to care. The rich are going to fuck the country, the Republicans will enthusiastically help, the Democrats will wring their hands and stand by motionless.

 

[MoltenRock III]

I'm going through a very discouraged period right now, and it's hard to care. The rich are going to fuck the country, the Republicans will enthusiastically help, the Democrats will wring their hands and stand by motionless.

You and I are on the same page, and hence why I stopped watching US politics. You can only care so much while being disabused repeatedly before you just give up. I see many similarities between the US, Thailand, Crotia, Vietnam, and Argentina. Most of the citizens become so distrustful of government, that they end up creating and living off black market goods to get by and running their side businesses that they pay no taxes on.

The new "Republican" world view as seen by outsiders (aka... American Imperialism)

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Column+America+imperialist+adventure/5554333/story.html

 

[evanrick]

I watched the super committee hearing from a couple days ago, because i was curious, and senator Kerry, in prosecutorial fashion probably asked the most poigniant question of mr. bowles, essentially asking him to spell out what would happen to america if the debt commission failed to use its enormous power to stimulate the economy and shrink the debt.

mr bowles essentially said that if the debt commission failed, it would signal the world that we are not serious about the debt situation, that interests rates would rise, and our debt would be again downgraded and we would face the same thing greece is going through. it would likely dampen any chances of the economy recovering, since the same tax structure and same benefits structure would be in place. we would have to continue borrowing more and more money to pay higher and higher interest rates, eventually we would have to cut spending as much as 50% , and we know what that would do to Americans who rely on social security and medicare.

what i find most disgusting about congress is that if they dont get something done here, and the triggers occur, they will likely find a way to get around the defense spending cuts. business as usual.

it became very clear from watching the hearing that the comission can do some important things really fast, ending tax credits for those who dont need them; businesses that pay no taxes, a payroll tax holiday for employees, and reducing tax rates, all would stimulate the economy and bring down the deficit at the same time.

 

[frankfrank]

The new "Republican" world view as seen by outsiders (aka... American Imperialism)

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Column+America+imperialist+adventure/5554333/story.html

Holy HELL, Romney's speech is lock, stock and barrel in sync with the ideology of PROJECT FOR THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY. American imperialism, hubris, and domination REGARDLESS of the cost - America cannot be allowed to surrender its position of most powerful nation on Earth. Not EVER.

If he gets elected, we're truly fucked. If any of the other Republican dirtwads get elected, we're even MORE fucked.

It's because of this American domination, that the economic crisis is going global. And China is just sitting back, and waiting for it to unravel.

 

[Centexfarmer]

Well kids, in order to get a headstart on ramping up the rhetoric and preparing for the next crisis to rock the financial world and scare people fucking stupid before the great Christmas spending season gets underway, thereby ensuring an even bleaker 2012 economic environment.....

Just remember, only 13 more days until the SuperCommittee deadline to trim 1.2 tril out of spending.

And remember...everything is on the table lol. Except defense and taxes I imagine.



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress_Joint_Select_Committee_on_Deficit_Reduction

Interesting that there is almost nothing coming out of the legislature these days on this game being
played.......

I suspect that they are going to deliver a huge

And with any luck, decades from the now, the Chinese or Brazilian version of Andrew Lloyd Webber and Tim Rice will write a Musical about it.

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hFL926bpVYs[/ame]



I'm just oooooozing with optimism, can'tcha tell?

Corporate America will get what they want, and the rest of us will be remembered in the history books, and foreign art pieces.

 

[Centexfarmer]

Can Greece learn the economic lessons Argentina missed?

We already have Americans in the streets protesting.

Ordinary Argentines suffered the consequences of the crisis. The unemployment rate hit 21.5% and did not return to single digits until the end of 2006.

When the World loses confidence in the American Dollar, where does that put the rest of us?

When the world looks at "American Democracy" and we can't even put our own house in order, where does that leave us?

 

[frankfrank]

senator Kerry...essentially asking him to spell out what would happen to america if the debt commission failed to use its enormous power to stimulate the economy and shrink the debt.

mr bowles essentially said that if the debt commission failed, it would signal the world that we are not serious about the debt situation, that interests rates would rise, and our debt would be again downgraded and we would face the same thing greece is going through. it would likely dampen any chances of the economy recovering, since the same tax structure and same benefits structure would be in place. we would have to continue borrowing more and more money to pay higher and higher interest rates, eventually we would have to cut spending as much as 50% , and we know what that would do to Americans who rely on social security and medicare.

The Republican wet dream. After this starts to happen, they can holler all day that indeed Obama failed, and the stupid Electorate will buy it lock, stock and barrel.

 

[MoltenRock III]

Republicans have now started talking about "untriggering" the deal this week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/08/opinion/staring-into-the-budgets-abyss.html?_r=1&hp

 

[BostonPirate]

Republicans have now started talking about "untriggering" the deal this week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/08/opinion/staring-into-the-budgets-abyss.html?_r=1&hp

Of course they are. Either they agree to the tax increase or the military gets cut by something like forty percent.

But some GOP colleagues have already signaled that they are not prepared to preside over what would be more than $1 trillion in defense spending cuts over 10 years – and will call to repeal the mandatory cuts.

“The sequester is an absolute national security disaster,” says Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, who has pledged to replace it. “There will be virtually no support when the new Congress understands what it does.”

In fact, the practice of restoring defense cuts after first claiming them as part of deficit reduction has settled into habit on Capitol Hill. It’s common for lawmakers to vote defense cuts, for example, then restore them in a subsequent “emergency” spending package. Few labels are as fatal in congressional politics as the charge of being weak on defense.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politi...f-deficit-super-committee-fails-Maybe-nothing

this is the GOP version of pulling the offense back and punting america's future.

The truth is that neither side will agree to the others terms so they will fail, and IF they fail, the nation will simply be put in jeopardy.

Its the point where the rubber hits the road. The GOP has to either look weak to a president with huge successes both in war and Diplomacy, or act. These are really the areas that are uniquely presidential, and it shows that when he is unhindered by a filibustering obstructionist party like the GOP, he excels.

 

[Centexfarmer]

Republicans have now started talking about "untriggering" the deal this week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/08/opinion/staring-into-the-budgets-abyss.html?_r=1&hp

Of course they have.

It would mean that they wouldn't have to make any compromises, and kick the can further down the road toward the 2012 POTUS elections.

I suspect that they're gambling that what ever happens that negatively impacts on the Middle Class that they'll be able to blame on Obama.

Simply dismissing the committee and undoing the sequester would be such a vast admission of Congressional failure that it could push down the nation’s credit rating, lead to chaos in financial markets and severely cripple hopes for an economic recovery.

Further proving the Republican and Tea Party claims that "government is the the problem, while taking no responsibility themselves for the failure...

Republicans created the policies that forced up the deficit and then refused to compromise with President Obama. They cannot simply walk away now. Panel members have only a few days to come up with a plan that balances new revenues with spending cuts. That is the only way to wrestle down the deficit without doing huge damage to the economy and the country.

I suspect that they will, the Occupy Wall Street Movement will become even more vocal, and the World Economy will continue to flounder then possibly collapse this time.

America is like one of those really great companies that used to protect their workers, that paid into pension funds, and were responsive to the communities that they started their businesses in, but then experienced a hostile takeover was broken apart, its unions busted, its pensions drained, its local economies devastated and its jobs shipped overseas all in the name of "share holder" profits.

Both political parties have been doing the bidding of the "share holder" while neglecting the needs of the very so called 'free markets" that they extoll the virtues of.

 

[chrisrobin]

Of course they have.

It would mean that they wouldn't have to make any compromises, and kick the can further down the road toward the 2012 POTUS elections.

I suspect that they're gambling that what ever happens that negatively impacts on the Middle Class that they'll be able to blame on Obama.



Further proving the Republican and Tea Party claims that "government is the the problem, while taking no responsibility themselves for the failure...



I suspect that they will, the Occupy Wall Street Movement will become even more vocal, and the World Economy will continue to flounder then possibly collapse this time.

America is like one of those really great companies that used to protect their workers, that paid into pension funds, and were responsive to the communities that they started their businesses in, but then experienced a hostile takeover was broken apart, its unions busted, its pensions drained, its local economies devastated and its jobs shipped overseas all in the name of "share holder" profits.

Both political parties have been doing the bidding of the "share holder" while neglecting the needs of the very so called 'free markets" that they extoll the virtues of.

WARNING: ANECDOTE ALERT!
I used to work for Osco Drug on a part-time basis. During my tenure, I couldn't help but notice that customers were waiting in line way too long, and they appeared to be annoyed by the wait. I asked my manager if he could extend our hours or hire a couple more clerks, he said, "no" - Reason? Too much overhead. It would upset the shareholders. I held it in, but what I wanted to say was, "what about the customers? Without customers, there wouldn't be any shareholders."

 

[BostonPirate]

The interesting thing about the bonds market right now, and why we haven't felt the effects of the reduction in as many ways as we will once europe gets its act together, is because people around the globe still think america's bonds, our IOU's on the national debt, are more sound than whats being peddled in Europe.

Greece may pull down the euro markets and banks,... actually I now think thats a probability.

Merkel can save them but they may turn down the offer... stunning shit.

But the money is going into the US treasury as it leaves europe.

It's an unexpected economic event... A behavior that had not been considered possible or likely.

America will be fine, if we stop with the draconian cuts, get rid of all tax loopholes, and raise the tax rate on the wealthy as we lower it on small businesses.

take a look at this....

Pepperdine University Graziadio School Study Shows Business Confidence Drops 34% over Last Six Months to New Low of 19%
Despite Economic Uncertainty, 44% of Businesses Plan to Hire

small business owners report they will hire in the coming months. Nearly half (44%) of the 10,637 privately-held businesses that responded to the survey report they plan to hire additional staff in the next six months. For those looking to hire, 47.8% said sales and marketing skills are in the greatest demand, 41.6% prioritized skilled labor while 38.8% are looking for employees with service/customer service skills.

what's holding them up? two things to note that I think are really important...

-- Privately-held businesses think there are opportunities for growth in the next twelve months with 39% of respondents saying that opportunities will increase slightly and 20% saying that opportunities will increase significantly.

-- Of those respondents that tried to raise capital in the previous twelve months, 35% applied for bank loans and only 50% of them were successful. Whereas, 16% of respondents looked to friends and family for funding and 79% of them were successful.

The banks need to be smaller. They need to not only BE smaller, they need to THINK smaller. They need to finance main street. That is where the job market has grown the most, not the big corporations with all the tax breaks and gov't handouts.....

The most expansive and robust part of the economy right now that is hiring people, are the local businesses, and THAT is why people need to move their money to a local credit union.

Because Credit unions invest their money in their patrons, and are more likely to give small business loans out to businesses that are doing better and need more workers.

Small business is trying to bounce back and it wants to hire massive amounts of people. Unfortunately the big banks are all playing the market and sitting on capital assets...

Non-financial companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 have a record $837 billion in cash, S&P says. That's enough to pay 2.4 million people $70,000-a-year salaries for five years. For context, 2.2 million to 2.8 million jobs were saved or created by the $862 billion stimulus that President Obama signed into law in February 2009, according to a report released in April from the Council of Economic Advisers.

Rather than investing in their future, companies are piling up cash and collecting practically zero interest on the money, hoping there will be a better time to invest later.

thats how much dead money the "job creators" are sitting on as the people who WANT to hire are not being given the cash.