Sigh. I'll have to contend myself with the fact that Dan probably cannot win BB10 and that's ok. He'll still likely make it to F2.
Because Dan's best (and possibly only) chance with the jury is against Keesha but for some reason, he is very loyal to Memphis (and vice versa) and would likely take Memphis to F2. Dan must have convinced himself that he can win the jury over to his side even against Memphis. He probably thinks the jury will see that he did more "obvious" moves (Memphis' gameplay was more subtle) -- and it's true that juries often like a winner with a capital WINNER -- but I think Dan has pissed off enough people, and Memphis has performed well enough in challenges (is that 3 POV's already?) to not seem like a Cowboy or anything, that Memphis would easily win as the less controversial candidate.
It's not impossible for Dan, but it's very unlikely, and I think he is miscalculating, and it will cost him $450,000.
Since Dan will likely take Memphis to F2, Dan's only chance for a F2 he actually can win would be for Keesha to win the Final HOH and take Dan. And therein lies the problem...
Keesha is decent at challenges but I think between Dan and Memphis (especially Dan), they cover a wider range of skill sets that could easily prevent Keesha from getting to Part III for the final HOH comp. If Keesha could get to Part III, she would have a shot at winning it because Memphis hasn't socialized with as many houseguests as she has, and she might be able to predict their answers better (Part III is always about guessing how jury members will answer a series of totally random/stupid questions). But the problem is...getting to Part III. Dan is clearly better at endurance (and even Memphis beat Keesha in the last endurance), and Part II is usually a combination of trivia and physical which both boys would probably be better at as well.
This is why for Dan and Keesha's sake (again, even though I like Memphis), it would have been better if Keesha won the POV and booted Memphis because Jerry definitely wasn't winning endurance in the Final HOH, and he likely couldn't win Part II either. He'd likely never even get to Part III, and Dan and Keesha could then easily take each other to the finals.
As it is now, Dan would have to realize that Keesha is his best bet, throw Part I/Part II of the Final HOH to her (thereby ensuring her a spot in Part III) in such a way that he either prevents Memphis from even getting to Part III (and Dan can then throw Part III to Keesha and let her be the bad guy by evicting Memphis) OR, he at least gives Keesha a shot against Memphis in Part III and hope for the best.
Oh and there's one more possibility...Dan wins the Final HOH (which is very possible), comes to his senses, and takes Keesha to F2. Because Memphis is totally the kind of rational/well adjusted/non emotional player who may not blame Dan (i.e. the opposite of Michelle) for taking the person he thought he could beat. I'm saying Dan could probably evict Memphis at F3 and still get his vote (and it's a testament to what a great guy Memphis is that this is possible).
But I don't think Dan is thinking like that and it will be his undoing. He can only win now if Keesha somehow manages to get to Part III.
