The Winners and the Losers

[NotHardUp1]

As I was reading up on some demographics, I found a table on Wiki that estimated 2023 populations in metropolitan areas vs. the 2020 census. I was looking at metro areas as opposed to cities because political boundaries can be misleading when studying metropolitan areas.

I extracted data and am showing only the areas with net change exceeding 5,000 souls. See the tables below from loses to gains:









Of course, some of the changes are organic, tied to birth rates, while others are truly people moving in or out.

What do the changes mean to you?

Is your area in the data shown and what is the story where you live.

I'm in the Huntsville, Alabama, area, and our boom is due to the automotive industry building plants for Japanese makers, plus the aerospace and defense gravy train. They are building multifamily housing here like we were York.

I texted my young Mormon friend in St. George, Utah, and asked if it was them having babies or Californians invading. He replied "Both!"

 

[peeonme]

I am in S.E. Mich and our population has gone down. People are leaving the area in search of a better life.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I am in S.E. Mich and our population has gone down. People are leaving the area in search of a better life.

Better jobs? Different demographics? Climate?

 

[peeonme]

Better jobs? Different demographics? Climate?

Better jobs.

 

[Norri]

I’m in the Boston area so there was a slight loss and no doubt the reason was housing affordable or otherwise. We need more housing to the point that the state has mandated that towns that have MBTA service must build apartments near the T stations. There are many wealthy towns included and most of them are balking and the state has threatened to take them to court. Evidently they have a thing against people who want to live in apartments.

The putting of parochial interests ahead of the greater whole is becoming endemic in this country.

 

[Peloso]

People are fleeing NYC in search of lower rent and not being stabbed. I've spent 40 years of my life here and never felt the need to watch my back like I do now.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I’m in the Boston area so there was a slight loss and no doubt the reason was housing affordable or otherwise. We need more housing to the point that the state has mandated that towns that have MBTA service must build apartments near the T stations. There are many wealthy towns included and most of them are balking and the state has threatened to take them to court. Evidently they have a thing against people who want to live in apartments.

The putting of parochial interests ahead of the greater whole is becoming endemic in this country.

High housing costs in Boston are not new, so they must be worse indeed. And NIMBY is almost as old as Boston, if not older. Good luck with the state's policy.

I remember Bradlee discussing the high costs when we met in 2004 or so, whenever I was up there. I'm quite partial to Boston, but know I could not afford to live well there.

 

[Rickrock]

It would be interesting if we knew why the areas growing are growing. Cleveland, Ohio and the rust belt had plenty of industry producing autos, and other goods, but those jobs have moved to Alabama and other places. Why? Some of it was lesser start-up and expansion costs and lower wages for the workers there. I wonder if in 30 years after all the old factories are gone in the rust belt if it will be cheaper to move manufacturing back to the old rust belt and away from the south.

 

[Latimer]

By coincidence, I know people who've moved out of each of the cities from New York through New Orleans. With the exception of Detroit-Warren-Dearborn (where the family moved to another Detroit suburb so that their children would be closer to their school), everyone else moved for reasons of taxes, crime, a culture they found had grown inhospitable or all of these reasons. They moved to Florida, Texas, Arizona or--in one case--Oaxaca. While I've read that the Los Angeles area has lost inhabitants, it's not something I've experienced here. The place seems as crowded as ever,

 

[EddMarkStarr]

Growth in the Seattle - Tacoma metro area has slowed as many newcomers are overwhelmed by the high cost of living in the Pacific Northwest. Wages continue to fall behind raising prices and housing rentals are ridiculous, bordering on insane!

 

[belamyi]

Who cares, but I think I already posted that BCN city has reached the registered population level of 1990 (peaked in 1980-1), and not just thanks to the newcomer Russians, Ukrainians or nationalized Italian Argentinians...

 

[NotHardUp1]

It would be interesting if we knew why the areas growing are growing. Cleveland, Ohio and the rust belt had plenty of industry producing autos, and other goods, but those jobs have moved to Alabama and other places. Why? Some of it was lesser start-up and expansion costs and lower wages for the workers there. I wonder if in 30 years after all the old factories are gone in the rust belt if it will be cheaper to move manufacturing back to the old rust belt and away from the south.

Good question, although I foresee a long run in the South, just as there was in Detroit and Ohio. It was certainly longer than 30 years.

The states have literally given the farm away to get the jobs. Of course, trouble is, with Alabama, they have a constitutionally mandate cap on taxes, so the infrastructure beyond the industrial makes it a low standard of living compare to smart cities.

The good ole boys still run this state.

 

[NotHardUp1]

By coincidence, I know people who've moved out of each of the cities from New York through New Orleans. With the exception of Detroit-Warren-Dearborn (where the family moved to another Detroit suburb so that their children would be closer to their school), everyone else moved for reasons of taxes, crime, a culture they found had grown inhospitable or all of these reasons. They moved to Florida, Texas, Arizona or--in one case--Oaxaca. While I've read that the Los Angeles area has lost inhabitants, it's not something I've experienced here. The place seems as crowded as ever,

I know I loved Albuquerque before the crime worsened. And law enforcement shrugging doesn't cut it. Of course, Albuquerque further had annual police lawsuits and settlements from shooting citizens, beating up citizens in parking decks on camera, running through red lights without lights on and not in pursuit, etc.

There's no suggestion that any of the cities will empy out Detroit-style, only that their problems are causing some exodus, and a hint that they might become more slummy as crime prevails and quality of life declines.

If I live another couple of decades, I believe we'll see climate changes drive migration here in the States. I also believe if Trump wins this election, we'll see some departures, and I may be one of them. It was one thing for the disenchanted to elect him as a protest, it's entirely another if a fascist faction uses him to attack the rule of law.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Who cares

Most people care about demographics, but media rarely publish it and civic entities don't ever tell the larger picture.

When our areas are growing, employment increases, there is more tax base, infrastructure problems result, crime may or may not be affected, and the composition of a place make may it actually a different place. Many in Europe are now griping about their imported labor from the Global South, from the Levant, and other poor countries.

My friend in Utah said they are growing fast and it doesn't feel like the small town he knew growing up. Sure enough, I looked at the data and when he was a boy, the city itself only near the 30,000 mark. Today, the metropolitan area exceeds 200,000, a major change in just 30 years. And, it's affected his quality of life dramatically. He's a plumber, married, with kids. Neither family had money, so he's struggled to buy a house. When he did, it's out quite a ways. It's a significant distance from town, and the prices have been driven up by California speculators, so it's not a big house.

I stumbled across an article describing his wife's delivery of a baby in 2022 or so when the midwife had to find an emergency site to deliver, as my friend and his wife were headed to her site to deliver when the baby began to come early. It was delivered in a fire station. That was one complication caused by the housing market pushing them beyond the city for affordability. People in metropolitan areas take access for granted. Rural outliers live with the challenges of being remote.

And, of course, when populations decline, it's usually a signal that the community is not meeting the needs of citizenry, hence the departures.

 

[belamyi]

Most people care about demographics

I meant 'who cares' about BCN.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I meant 'who cares' about BCN.

The comma made it read otherwise.

 

[belamyi]

The comma made it read otherwise.

Ungrammatically so.

I may keep wrongly omitting commas for the posts that only you will show that you are [mis]reading.

"Who cares [about it]" is not connected in any syntactical or "semantic" way to the following, just because it is a very short sequence.

 

[Araucaria]

In Florida at least, growth has been accelerated by people telecommuting from home during Covid, which allowed them to move away from the cold winter cities in the North. Also, many right-wingers suddenly moved down, attracted by DeSantis and company flaunting common-sense Covid safety measures, and the Fascist World they're trying to create down here. That portends many years of bad times politically. A number of LGBTQ+ people have left the state, especially trans people and the professionals who serve them, along with some of the more politically astute gay people who had only recently moved down, though I suspect those numbers are quite small compared to the influx of the MAGA crowd. Also, real estate has gone through the roof down here, with house prices out of reach of most people, and rentals have gone sky-high, which no doubt will keep many people without money away-- those essential workers who are needed to run all the retail shops and restaurants, nursing care facilities, and even EMTs, teachers, and so on.