Hm...since this IS a thread on the Va. Tech shooting...man, thoughts and prayers. It's really a sad thing. I mean, people die all the time, and in large numbers in parts of the world, but...somehow, at a school and all that...just so sad...
As for the gun control thing...my opinion on that is probably well enough known by now, except that I'm not a well known member around here... ^_^
BUT, I had an interesting thought the other day; something that speaks to the change of time and technology. I'm sure the anti-gun people won't understand it, so you guys may as well skim to the bottom of the paragraph. For those of you that are either pro-Second Amendment or neutral on the issue (and if you think this is a good argument, feel free to pass it around or discuss it with your friends), here goes:
Think about the gap of power between attacker and defender(s)/innocent(s) in the following scenarios.
Oh, and I'll warn you, this IS a little morbit, but I'm not advocating hurting people (PLEASE mods, don't delete this without at least reading it all the way through.) I'm also not trying to be detatched, emotionally, from suffering and harm...but as a scientist, this seems to be the best way to qualitatively measure the power gap invloved in the following scenarios. PLEASE bare with it until the end, and I'm gonna be as non-graphic in my description as I can and this is NOT meant to make light or anything of the Va. Tech tragedy. All that said...
Scenario 1:
There are ten of us in a room, and there is ONE sword there (katana, longsword, claymore, take your pic.) Suppose I take that sword and decide I'm going to try killing you guys. I haven't been trained with swords, but I have about a year's worth of martial arts training, and while not all thatmuscular, I have good muscle tone, moderate strength, and pretty fast speed, agility, and reflexes. Since we're all friends and nice guys, no one's expecting it (kinda like the Va. Tech thing...), so I kill one person with a stab through the chest from the back. One person is now dead. I move to attack a second person. The remain ing 8 of you (including the one I'm moving to attack) either realize now that I'm trying to kill you OR you will after I injure/kill my second victim. Two people are dead/injured now, and there are seven of you to attempt to subdue me. At LEAST two more of you will be injured/killed in the attempt, even if you all rush at once, I'm gonna cut one of you and likely at least nic a second one. The remaining five manage to wrestly the sword from me and bring an end to the tragedy, and possibly some more of you are hurt in the attempt (a sharp sword doesn't need to slash or stab to cause damage, just a casual pull or light force lunge can cut.)
Death toll: 1-4
Injured: 2-8, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter/Swordsman: injured/subdued
Scenario 2:
There are ten of us in a room. ALL ten of us have a gun (each of us has one.) Also, presumably we all have at least 10 bullets, either in the loaded clip/chamber or a combination of the clip/chamber and backup ammo clips we have on our person/pockets/satchel/ect.
Once again, I'll be the bad guy... -_-; So, first thing I shoot one of you. You are either injured or dead. I turn to attack a second. I shoot the second. Again, injured or dead. (I may fire in two to three shot bursts or single shots, either way, at the least those shot are wounded.) The first shot grabs everyone's attention, but I'll get a second person before the other 7 of you can react. It can happen that fast and it also takes MOST Humans a minute to process what's happening, realize those WERE gunshots, not construction equipment or something else, and that this IS a crisis situation.
I turn my aim on a third person. All 7 of you reach for your weapons. I will still get to SHOOT AT at least two of you before the other 5 are able to unload on me. Now I'm injured/dead. Either way, I, as a threat, have been neutralized.
Death toll: 2-4
Injured: 2-8, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter: injured/dead
(I'd like to discuss it here, but as per my near-degreed scientific training, discussion comes AFTER results are completed. I just want to point out that this is similer, though still worse, than the sword case.)
Scenario 3:
Once again, there are ten of us in this hypothetical room. This time, there is only ONE gun. I, as the villian of this tragic tale, am the one in posession of it (just as I was with the sword.) Well, either that or it was "public" (like the sword, which was on display or something...) and I just took it when I decided to go on my rampage.
Just as last time, I have shot and killed/injured two of you before anyone can react. Before you can even GET to me, another TWO to SIX of you are dead/injured. Now that you've got me, you're going to try to subdue me, and I'm going to keep fireing dumfire at you (or maybe, if I'm really skilled and can keep my cool, keep firing aimed shots. AND, with my light martial arts training and quick motions, keep from you guys subdueing me easily. And there's between one and five of you still alive/uninjured at the point you get to me...) So at least one and as many as four of you will be injured in the struggle.
AND, if I'm fast enough and skilled enough to keep out of your collective reach, I will simply continue picking you off, one by one, until you're all dead. And that's if I'm not strong enough to simply fight you hand to hand, step back, and shoot. That would work too.
Death toll: 4-9
Injured: 0-5, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter: Possibly subdued, if skilled/strong, alive and unscathed, ready to LEAVE the room and cause MORE death.
Now then, for the "results" section of this thought experiment. Let's start by looking at the outcomes:
Death toll: 1-4
Injured: 2-8, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter/Swordsman: injured/subdued
Death toll: 2-4
Injured: 2-8, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter: injured/dead
Death toll: 4-9*
Injured: 0-5, not including those already dead
Status of Shooter: Possibly subdued, if skilled/strong, alive and unscathed
*If I survive, I'm ready to LEAVE the room and cause MORE death. If I manage to injure all of you, I will likely finish you all off, killing you, before moving on and killing others in the larger world outside of our little room.
Just looking at the deaths, we see that the case of one person with a sword ranks about even with EVERYONE having a gun. Essentially, the gap in power is about the same. However, when we look at the case of ONE person with a gun, the MINIMUM deathcount is about the same as the upper end death count in the case of ONE sword or EVERYONE having guns.
Looking at the injury count, we see that the first two cases are about the same. At least two people will be hurt, but EVERYONE might be. As they say in martial arts with knife defense, if you're fighting someone with a knife, expect to get cut. You may be fast, your blocks may be perfect, you may be able to deflect the blow from the side and grab the wrist and pin it around their back, but you EXPECT to get cut...and it will probably happen. Much moreso with a sword as the blade is longer and usually sharper. However, we look at the third case and see that EVERYONE is likely going to end up injured. In fact, it's possible for me, the shooter, to have ALL of you shot before anyone can lay a hand on me, at which point I can finish the rest of you off at my leasure.
Finally, let's look at what happens to me, the villian of this story. In the first case, none of you have a way to kill me (unless one of you knows jujitsu...some of those breaks and chokes are pretty nasty, even in practice/sparing...), so at worst, you're going to lightly injure me, but in the end, you will be able to subdue me. There will be at least 5 of you still alive and kicking when you get to me, and if nothing else you could just all close in around to where we were touching cloth to cloth (skin to skin distance, basically) where I couldn't move my arms. You might be able to kill me with my own sword, but by the time you take the sword away from me, I become MUCH less of a threat (I still have my martial arts, but now YOU have a sword. And swords aren't as easy to kill with as guns, but you can still hurt people fairly easily without any training.)
In the second case, I get shot...by at least five people. In either injured or dead. 'Nuf said.
In the last case, it's like the first, but unlike when the second case is like the first, this isn't a good thing. Either you will injure me, or I will kill/injure you all. In the latter case, this scenario becomes EVEN WORSE, as I can now leave the room unimpeeded to kill MORE people in open halways or outside...places which, unlike our little room, people will not be able to easily rush me as you did.
Now, what's the point of all of this?
I agree with Thomas Paine(sp?). He lived in the time of the Founding Fathers and may have been one of them (I don't know how much of a role he played, but he wrote a lot of pamplets, the most famous of which is Common Sense, which were very useful, if not instrumental, in rallying the colonists to Revolution.) I wish I knew the proper quote, but I will paraphrase his words.
I wish that all guns in the world could be destroyed. But as long as one exists, I will take up my own (musket, he said) and thank God that I can.
I was thinking about this and my mind drifted to the samurai of fudal Japan. This is when the thought stuck me: Back then, they, in a way similar to the knights and aristocracy of Europe, were able to walk the streets with weapons the civilian/pesants were not allowed by law to carry, and like the knights, they seldom lived up to a true code of honor and chivalry.
So I started thinking about the "power gap" (if you're a science-y person, think things like Delta E [physics entheusists] or activation energy [for you biology/chemistry people]) between the pesants and the knights/samurai. Then I was thinking about the same thing, but with only one person having a gun (scenario 3). THEN my mind stopped on scenario 2, and I realized something; the power gap is about the same in the case of ONE person having a sword as it is for EVERYONE having a gun. However, the power gap when ONE person has a gun becomes INSANE.
Reading the words of Paine, I realized he had a point. If there are no guns in the world, everyone's on an even plane. If a fight breaks out, we all have roughtly the same chance of getting out uninjured/alive. We can increase this with martial arts training (something I tell people is, specially in this day and age, EVERYONE should learn some martial arts if they can...I truly believe that as a novice martial artist myself...) But, give one person a sword, and there's a power gap, an advantage. Give EVERYONE a gun, and the power gap is STILL there.
You might think, "What are you saying? EVERYONE has one now, we're all on even footing...right?" Wrong. Because evil people ALWAYS have the element of surprise. In tactics (and martial arts, having an aspect of that), the two most powerful forms of attack; the surprise attack (ambush/preemptive SURPRISE attack) being the first, and the counter attack being the second (if the person that made the initial attack is depleated/weakened/exhausted...and in these scenarios, all of this will happen in a matter of under a minute and likely with enough adreneline that weakness/exhaustion hasn't kicked in yet.) This already gives the attacker a major advantage in the surprise attack. The most deadly attack in the martial arts? One the opponent doesn't see coming.
So, even if we're ALL armed, the villian has the element of surprise and can peg 2-3 people before anyone notices and can even react! And another 1-3 after that easily. Guns are simply THAT bad. Not like swords or martial arts, neither honor or fairness at all...which is why I'm with Paine with my first preference being to rid the world of them, I just know that's impossible.
...but it gets worse. If only ONE person has a gun, the power gap is now great enough for them to potentially kill EVERYONE else. And even if we make owning weapons totally illegal in the US, repeal the Second Amendment, stop and think; our border with Mexico is WIDE OPEN! How easy would it be to smuggle guns across? Hell, it seems to work great for smuggling illegal drugs, whould it be that much more difficult to bring in illegal guns? Nope. And metal detectors? Please...
Even if we manage to completely close our borders with both Mexico AND Canada, neither of which is going to happen, we've got a LOT of coastline we'd have to also patrol to keep guns from getting in. Of course, if we could convince all nations of the world to destroy all their guns too...like that's going to happen.
Another conclusion: The interesting thing about guns, and this is somewhat anti-intuitive, the FEWER of them there are, the MORE dangerous they are...the power gap gets greater (change scenario 2 or 3 to where I have a gun and 5 of you have guns and 4 are unarmed...it's still bad, but not AS bad as 3.)
UNLESS you can get the number down to zero. And this means NO guns on cops, NO guns on soldiers, NO tanks, NO armed aircraft, NO armed ships/navy/special forces/intel, AND NO weapons of these sorts being employed by ANY nation ANYWHERE in the world. If this could happen, yay! It can't. No matter how much you believe in the goodness of Humanity, no matter how nieve or innocent you are (and I'm pretty high up that list myself...), you have to realize this simply isn't going to happen.
So, the danger with guns is not how easy it is to kill with them, but rather the power gap they generate. Even if everyone has one, it's just as bad as if only ONE person had a sword and everyone else was unarmed. But give this one person a gun (or let him get it by smuggling or the black market) and it gets bad. Very bad.
I know it was long, for those of you that read it all, good for you. Comments/criticisms are welcome. I mean, I'm sure there are holes, but it's a thought experiment, and I provide for both best cause (the lowest numbers) and worst case (the high end numbers) scenarios. At the very least, I hope some of you found it interesting, and if any of you think it's a useful or interesting way of thinking about it, by all means, let me know. And if any of you think it's a lousy way of quantitatively measuring it...well, I'd like to know that too (and if you have any better ways.) After all, as a scientist, I want to make a quantitative analysis of it, and this seems the best way.
For those of you that just think I'm sick...don't bother replying or PMing me that. If I'm not, then it's pointless to say so. If I am, then I wouldn't care, and it's also pointless to say so. ^_^ I'm the former, but if you think I'm the latter, well, got all the bases covered there. ^_^
Anyway, to be honest, it was just a thought that occured to be the other day during my routene walk to school/class (or on my way home, I forget which, but it doesn't matter... ^_^; ) while I was mulling over Paine's words in my head. I dunno, maybe it's not a useful way of looking at it at all. It's just the first time I've thought that, and I've never heard of any one else presenting that and making that comparison, so maybe I'm the first person that ever has. Either way, I found it interesting...and a little freightening (even if EVERYONE's armed, people still get hurt/die), and when I saw this, wanted to share it. Hope at least someone got something out of it, even if it's against my point (after all, I like getting people to think, even if they disagree with me in the end.)
Again, I don't mean to offend anyone or this to be offensive or anything...I just think it needs to be said. There's no way we can ultimately stop something like Va. Tech from happening again, but we can definately do something to make it less bad the next time. Unfortunately, a lot of people seem to want to do exactly the wrong thing (from my reasoning/point of view), so in the end, who knows...the next one may end up being even worse...