Was Hurricane Helene's damage inland foreseen and hidden?

[NotHardUp1]

Allegatitons of NOAA and NHC Concealments

The linked article casts the NOAA and NHC in a more nefarious light than may be fair, as ALL hurricanes are inherently difficult to predict specifically, and miles matter between tracks.

But, this is a newsworthy item.

If we have more accurate models, but are not divulging the information, it is a problem.

 

[Alistair]

Every weather report I saw was warning that there was going to be very dangerous conditions inland with flooding and possible landslides in the mountains. They were all predicting it was going to stall over the middle of the east coast.

 

[rareboy]

The deal is scheduled to expire next year, and NOAA reportedly expects to release HCCA model data in time for the 2025 hurricane season.

From February 25, 2019, to January 20, 2021, Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, served as acting Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere at the US Department of Commerce and as NOAA's interim administrator. Jacobs succeeded Timothy Gallaudet, who succeeded Benjamin Friedman. The three served in series as NOAA's interim administrator throughout the Trump Administration. In October 2017, Barry Lee Myers, CEO of AccuWeather, was proposed to be the agency's administrator by the Trump Administration. After two years in the nomination process, on November 21, 2019, Myers withdrew his name from consideration due to health concerns.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[johaninsc]

I lost power about 3 am last Friday morning.
Finally got it back on at 7:30 pm tonight.
It's been a real mess here, but I'm ok.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I lost power about 3 am last Friday morning.
Finally got it back on at 7:30 pm tonight.
It's been a real mess here, but I'm ok.

So sorry your area is so slammed. It looks like plenty of neighbors are doing good things there where they can. Glad you are ok.

 

[unloadonme]

I find it hard to believe that anyone would have played down the potential seriousness of Hurricane Helene. It received plenty of news coverage over here on the BBC which made it abundantly clear how bad it was likely to be.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I didn't read the article to mean severity was downplayed, merely that the software made a more specific model that may have pinpointed things like the 29" of rain in certain places, the need to evacuate areas that had never flooded before, etc.

Of course, since we don't KNOW what was in the most accurate model, as they described it, we don't know what was not shared.

It's definitely not in the realm of intent, only questionable ethics.

 

[Alistair]

I think it’s a matter of hindsight. Now that we know what happen, it’s the most accurate. But you always throw out the odd ball result that is completely different than the others.

 

[smokeshadow]

As our local meterologist explained. . .

1) there was a weather front that stalled along the Appalachian Mountains before Helene crossed land, that dumped 8 inches to 10 inches of rain in the area
2) When Helene crossed inland, she dumped an additional 20 inches to 30 inches of rain onto already saturated soil and flooded waterways
3) the topography of the area; large swaths of low vallelys between the Appalachians and the coastal highlands trying to funnel all that water into already overflowing waterways.

It sounds like it was a confluence of naturally occurring phenomenon that took place in the same general area at the same time. Not sure anyone could have predicted any of this

 

[rareboy]

I think that in a natural disaster, there are always going to be people monetizing it by second guessing.

 

[Araucaria]

Don't look now, but Milton has just formed, and it is expected to become a major hurricane and come right toward Florida.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Don't look now, but Milton has just formed, and it is expected to become a major hurricane and come right toward Florida.

In the age of global warming, the meteorologists warned us of rising seas and likely loss of coastal cities. What many have not grasped is that the low-lying areas may be abandoned decades or centuries before the sea covers them.

Florida may well go from being a resort economy to becoming sparsely populated by the uber wealthy who can afford to have homes there without insurance, as the rest of us will not be paying for the annual rebuilding of the state.

And, with the shifting weather, parts of the Midwest, the Great West, and Canada will become less uninhabited, as populations pull back from the turbulent Southeast and the troubles of California. Farm lands are suddenly looking much preferable to coasts and mountains where torrents spell death.

 

[NotHardUp1]

I think it’s a matter of hindsight. Now that we know what happen, it’s the most accurate. But you always throw out the odd ball result that is completely different than the others.

True, but as the unthinkable continues to happen (e.g., entire towns burn to the ground, NYC gets flooded, Lake Mead and Lake Powell fall to critical levels, the Mississippi reaches record low at Memphis, etc.), treatment of worst case scenarios will change. It IS changing. Insurance companies are out ahead, but governments and communities are waking up to the necessity of reconsidering risk management.

It sounds like it was a confluence of naturally occurring phenomenon that took place in the same general area at the same time. Not sure anyone could have predicted any of this

Not being smarmy, but they can and do have models that predict these exact scenarios. You can simulate in software what would happen if say, there was a massive forest fire following dry season or dought in the Appalachians, followed by a hurricane dumping massive rain months later or a year later. We have the data from just such events that have already happened in other areas.

That's why we have NOAA and FEMA and the US Geological Survey and many other agencies. It is easy to foresee a branch of the federal government with the equivalent of an energy tsar or head of "homeland security" whose principal job is to plan for massive restructuring to mitigate natural disaster risks. It could rival the WPA for its scope.

 

[Araucaria]

In the age of global warming, the meteorologists warned us of rising seas and likely loss of coastal cities. What many have not grasped is that the low-lying areas may be abandoned decades or centuries before the sea covers them.

Florida may well go from being a resort economy to becoming sparsely populated by the uber wealthy who can afford to have homes there without insurance, as the rest of us will not be paying for the annual rebuilding of the state.

And, with the shifting weather, parts of the Midwest, the Great West, and Canada will become less uninhabited, as populations pull back from the turbulent Southeast and the troubles of California. Farm lands are suddenly looking much preferable to coasts and mountains where torrents spell death.

In South Florida we are already having occasional flooding along coastal areas due to king tides that have nothing to do with any storms. From what I've seen, it looks like all the money and effort is being put into "weatherizing" these areas along the waterways to protect all the expensive real estate-- areas that will eventually have to be abandoned. So they're trying to save places like Miami Beach, instead of making sober assessments of what portions of the urban areas can be saved.

Also, over 10 years ago an assessment was made that it would cost an estimated $22 billion to reinforce the spillways on all the canals that separate the saltwater from freshwater. Over 90% of South Florida's drinking water comes from freshwater wells which are recharged by surface water. It's complicated hydrogeology, but the freshwater supply is vulnerable to saltwater intrusion and contamination. Unless the area wants to risk losing its water supply, it needs to protect its fresh water.

 

[Thad1527]

Yet "America's most trusted news source," The Weather Channel, daily promotes the science that climate change is real.

 

[smokeshadow]

Just read the first 2 paragraphs

Helene and another storm dumped a whopping 40 trillion gallons of rain

Meteorologists calculate that more than 40 trillion gallons of rain drenched the Southeast United States in the last week from Hurricane Helene and a run-of-the-mill rainstorm that sloshed in ahead of it. It's an unheard-of amount of water that stunned experts.

www.nbcbayarea.com

 

[62624rd]

it was forseen . I am telling my age. Back in 1969 .Hurricane Camille destoryed my community. 154 people lost their life. They still havent found some the bodies. Some bodies were found 25 miles down river. I remember my parents taking me and my sister up to the high school to see the Nat. Guard helicopters bring in surivers and dead. We tried to drive round looking at the damage but most of the roads and bridges were wipe,. The storm hit the Blue Ridge Mtns and stalled.it dropped about 29 inches of rain .

 

[Alistair]

The path of Helene’s damage is quite clear in this

 

[Araucaria]

From the You Can't Make This Stuff Up Department: On the 5 o'clock NPR News Headlines, which covered stories of the impending landfall of hurricane Milton, and the clean-up from Helene, came the sponsorship clip from the St. Petersburg-- Clearwater tourist promotion board.

 

[johaninsc]

So sorry your area is so slammed. It looks like plenty of neighbors are doing good things there where they can. Glad you are ok.

I'm ok, but things aren't well at the moment.
One of my brothers was found dead Saturday afternoon in his home; neighbor went to check on him.... he still didn't have power, but he did have food and water.
He had been in declining health for a while, but I guess the stress was too much.
We're still waiting on the official cause of death....