What to do about North Korea.

[Kulindahr]

I don't know enough about Asia to have a useful opinion, but it seems to me that SOMEONE has been aiding and abetting N.K, and if we want to change anything, we need to know who.

^I'm pretty sure that it has been Russia and China -- both "profitable" -- but for completely different reasons. China's interest lies in a "split" korean peninsula. Russia is just trying to gain credibility as a world power wherever it can find a toe-hold.

China is barely paying lip service to the UN sanctions on N Korea; it's practically an open border for trade.

 

[Kulindahr]

I don't know haw real the EMP weapon is. It has been talked about for some time and the Russians claim they have one. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/33601...electronic-bomb-in-bizarre-propaganda-report/. If they have one we probably also have it, but whether we can contain its effects not to injure South Korea is another question.

Russia is claiming what Boeing and the Air Force have confirmed: effectively an aimed EMP pulse big enough to 'fry' a city block.

North Korea would most likely just use a nuke in the atmosphere and 'fry' the northern half of S Korea.

 

[Kulindahr]

I agree diplomacy has not worked so far and it is the fault of the current and the past several administrations. But that doesn't mean it can't or won't work in the future if we put forth some creative effort and willingness to compromise. We should at least try harder don't you think? Especially now.

But I also understand that may be too idealistic given the particular crop of players both there and here. I definitely don't want a "Munich Agreement" appeasement type situation that makes thing worse down the road. We must remain strong but humble. I don't know the answer but at this time, I'd like to see the U.S. attempt to be the peacemaker before resorting to war.

Diplomacy is what the North loves; they can posture and puff and get everyone excited but never actually have to back down. What's needed is some new factor that destabilizes in the direction of peace. Maybe airdrop marijuana brownies over the whole North? (Silly, yes, but it's the sort of idea that's needed, something to break the pattern.)

 

[Kulindahr]

EMP weapons can devastate civilian and military infrastructure over vast areas but military structures can be hardened against it and quite frankly some of the NK technologies are so old they might not be that sensitive to it. And I suspect most of their artillery would still be able to function. The damage to the more modern electronics on the Southern forces would probably make the overall cost to be greater than the benefit.

I read an article by an electrical engineer recommending that a vapor barrier material for buildings be developed with layers of wire mesh sufficient to render any building using it as an effective Faraday cage, thus protecting all electronics within. The same thing could be done with sheet rock, flooring, insulation, roofing, wallpaper.....

 

[frankfrank]

The problem we've had with "diplomacy" (or lack thereof) is due to China not WANTING a unified Korean peninsula.

this would be another "pre-emptive" war

The last time diplomacy was tried, was toward the end of the prior century (which ended after December 2000, a year out-of-step from the Millemmium). I had the impression that it was starting to work, and the ice was thawing.

There's also nothing requiring a unified Korea if diplomacy works and the North actually acts and plays sensibly.

I don't know haw real the EMP weapon is. It has been talked about for some time and the Russians claim they have one.

OK, whatever happened to the "neutron bomb" that I was hearing about 30 or 40 years ago? Has the science just not worked, and instead shown it not to be something that would work?

 

[Kulindahr]

OK, whatever happened to the "neutron bomb" that I was hearing about 30 or 40 years ago? Has the science just not worked, and instead shown it not to be something that would work?

The European anti-nuke movement was so noisy about them that Reagan stopped developing or making them. We don't have any these days; not sure about anyone else.

 

[Stardreamer]

Given the North Korean propensity for packing their artillery, and given that the location of much of it is either known or can be learned, there is an option that could eliminate well over four-fifths of it in one strike. Militarily it's a fairly simple proposition; the problem is that environmentally it would be catastrophic. The method? A massive fuel-air bomb strike frying the northern side of the border.

Yeah, not gonna happen.

That said, the analyses I've read indicate that Seoul being "flattened" is more northern propaganda than reality. Damage would be massive, and loss of life serious, but the north's artillery is better at awing those watching it than damaging what it shoots at. As for the missiles, conventional warhead ballistics would be turned to scrap/confetti by Phalanx gatlings -- enough so that there's a good chance more damage would be done by broken shreds smashing into buildings and vehicles than by warheads going off.

There is not enough Phalanx systems to do the job and they would not be effective against all types of missiles. They are wonderful system but there is no one system that provides a complete missile defense.

 

[Alnitak]

Really, it's just sabre rattling. The Kim regime is having fun poking at a weak willed United States weary of 16 years of war in the Middle East. Had 9-11 never happened, I'm sure the appetite would be brewing for a second Korean War, but not now, if ever.

 

[andysayshi]

I beg all of our friends from South Korea to preemptively leave (you're welcome here ).

There's 10 million people in Seoul. That's a big invitation you're offering.

Diplomacy is no longer an option.

Diplomacy is almost always an option.

 

[kallipolis]

Really, it's just sabre rattling. The Kim regime is having fun poking at a weak willed United States weary of 16 years of war in the Middle East. Had 9-11 never happened, I'm sure the appetite would be brewing for a second Korean War, but not now, if ever.

On the ball for Kim is taking advantage of the chaos raging at The White House.

China has the means to assassinate Kim should his strategy evolve beyond playing games at the expense of the Japanese.

 

[Benvolio]

Diplomacy has been tried multiple times. NoKorea, i.e. Kim and his father have been determined to have nuclear missiles and we are not going to talk them out of it. Period. They seem to agree to stop developing in return for food etc, but just keep right on. The same with Iran.Diplomacy just does not work with some people.

 

[kallipolis]

Diplomacy should always be ongoing without time limits, or restraints on how best to handle Kim.

 

[Benvolio]

Diplomacy should always be ongoing without time limits, or restraints on how best to handle Kim.

Perhaps, but allowing him to develop nuclear missles is a different question. Since he persists in threatening us and our allies, we are justified in preemption. We are not obligated to wait until he wipes out a city.

 

[Alnitak]

On the ball for Kim is taking advantage of the chaos raging at The White House.

China has the means to assassinate Kim should his strategy evolve beyond playing games at the expense of the Japanese.

Well what would be the point? Would a junta be any better? Maybe the country would transition like Myanmar. I don't know. Also what is the casus belli here? The lack of a peace treaty? I think there would have to be a justification even for resumption of hostilities.

 

[Benvolio]

On the ball for Kim is taking advantage of the chaos raging at The White House.

China has the means to assassinate Kim should his strategy evolve beyond playing games at the expense of the Japanese.

They could insist that Kim stop threatening or stop developing nuclear missles. But clearly they are not doing so but have substantially increased trade with NoK, in effect subsidizing Kim's plans. Does China care if NK attacks the US or Japan or So Korea? No indication that they care. More likely they are hoping that the US will fail, causing our allies to depend upon China rather than us.

 

[MystikWizard]

I think this conflict is getting unnecessarily escalated and to be frank, I think Trump is responsible for a lot of that escalation with his tweets and public remarks.

That said, a bottom line needs to be drawn about whether we can tolerate them having nuclear weapons or not.

If the answer is a reluctant "yes" for the purpose of defending themselves, then it's time to take the tension down some notches and deal with them behind the scenes ... more sanctions, etc.

If the answer is "no", because we are not only concerned that they will attempt to strike the U.S., but they may develop and sell the nukes to terrorists so they can do Kim Jong Un's work on his behalf, then I am sure the CIA will find a way to infiltrate and "take care of the problem" one way or another. They have a recent death of an American citizen on their shoulder, as well, anyway.

If I had to look into the crystal ball, I honestly don't see the U.S. willing to actually start World War 3 over this. At the end of the day, North Korea will continue to have and develop nukes. A pre-emptive strike against North Korea will unquestionably lead to a war.

My guess is sanctions will continue, but sadly, we need China's help on this and I don't think we are going to get it. So the next question is ... does the U.S. want to risk damaging a relationship with another major power like China because of North Korea?

 

[eastofeden]

Ironically...the rest of the world might be asking the same question...what to do about the United States?.....

 

[gsdx]

^ Unfortunately, Trump is completely blind to what is happening as a result of his actions in the United States let alone around the world.

 

[bankside]

So far, Trump has been CORRECT to complain that China needs to do more. So benvolio, to your charge that people are just looking for an excuse to condemn him, you can put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Of course he is quoting me, on here, like a year ago or something, when I was pointing out how the west should deal with the Korean Necrocracy.

 

[Benvolio]

Trump did not cause the No Koreans to develop nuclear weapons or the missles. His talk may have induced Kim to be more vocal and more willing to disclose their progress and plans, but that is a good thing. The problem is not the escalation of rhetoric, but the progress with the missles.