15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Hey Sammie I have a question for you. I saw a poll today from N.H. which had McCain ahead 47-45% but it also said 25% were undecided.

Do you have any info on how many are undecided in states such as Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada?

Guys, a few unrelated topics that I will put in one thread.

1) Rasmussen changes party weighting to lean more toward the Democratic party--big news for a pollster that many allege has a GOP-bent (the leader of Ras. Co. is a Republican).

Results from this past week showed that the number of people considering themselves to Democrats spiked early in the week as the economic problems on Wall Street became visible. Overall, it was the best week for the Democrats since July. It remains to be seen whether this might lead to a lasting adjustment or be more of a bounce like that resulting from a party’s nominating convention.

For polling data released during the week of September 21-27, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.0% Democratic, 33.5% Republican, and 27.5% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, September 14-20, 2008, the targets were 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the first thirteen days of September, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ighting_targets_39_0_democrat_33_5_republican
Of course, they will change the weighting weekly.


2) The new Mason Dixon Poll for NBC in Florida had some statistical peals that I thought I would share. Perhaps a Floridian like Random "No" Access can jump in and expand. Obama leads in the poll 47-45% with a 4% margin of error:
**In regards to race: Whites: McCain 50-42%; Blacks: Obama 88-5%: Hispanics/Cubans: McCain 48-43%. The Hispanic vote looks vital to me here.
**B'back recently asked about McCain and the Senior voter scenario. Florida provides some numbers: People aged 50-64 went McCain 48-43%; People 65+ chose McCain 48-44%. Again, like Hispanics, seniors are the swing vote in FL. McCain is holding his own barely with both groups.
**The FL georgraphy breakdown:

--North Florida-- McCain 55-37% North Florida is South Georgia...many joke that Jacksonville, FL is the capital of S. Ga.

--Central Florida -- McCain 49-42% . Orlando is always one of the two key swing areas in FL, and McCain leads it.

--Tampa Bay-- Obama 49-43%. Now we know why the Suncoast is getting saturated with ads.

--Southeast FL -- Obama 59-34%. Please no hanging chads this time, W. Palm Beach.

--Southwest FL -- McCain 53-39%. There is so money on the SW Coast, and it's cleary very Republcian.

So, Obama leads by 2 pts, but McCain leads in 3 geographies. Folks, this is tight!!

3) N.G. asked about undecided voters. First, the New Hampshire poll is from UNH that has McCain with the 2 pt lead. I think you mis-read or someone mis-reported as there were only 7% undecided in that poll.
Most polls have found the Undecideds to have dwindled down to around 4-7%. For instance, here are some examples from some of the most recent polls that I've mentioned:
2%--Kentucky
4%-- PA, GA
5% -- Ark., Mass., Vermont, S Dakota, WI, IA, CO
6% -- Oregon, NJ
7%-- NC, NH, OH
Notice that the highest undecideds are from 3 of the most fierce battleground states.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I can't believe the McCain campaign can run such "anti-GOP" ads. Who could ever think of a man in Senator Goldwater's seat as a moderate?

To paraphrase Gerald Ford on Lincoln: If Barry Goldwater were alive today, he'd be rolling in his grave.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Pollster has moved Florida and North Carolina back to "Toss Up" status.

The "Toss Up States" now include:
Montana - McCain +2.6
Nevada - McCain +2.5
Colorado - Obama +2.7
Minnesota - Obama +3.2
Indiana - McCain +2.5
Ohio - McCain +2.9
Pennsylvania - Obama +2.3
New Hampshire - McCain +2.7
West Virginia - McCain +3.6
Virginia - McCain +0.6
North Carolina - McCain +3.3
Florida - McCain +3.3

McCain is playing defense in 10 states
Obama is playing defense in 2 states

The trend line in Colorado indicates Obama pulling ahead of McCain, undecideds at 5%
Obama has leveled off, with McCain rising in Minnesota, undecideds at 2%
In Indiana, McCain has leveled off, with Obama rising, undecideds at 2%
McCain is surging in Ohio, undecideds at 7%
McCain is surging in Pennsylvania, undecideds at 4%
Obama sinking, and McCain surging in New Hampshire, undecideds at 7%
McCain is plummeting and Obama is surging in West Virginia, undecideds at 7%
The trend line in Florida favors McCain, undecideds at 3%

Sammie, it's a given that McCain will carry the Blue Grass; we're working on unseating Mitch McConnell right now. Lunsford trails McConnell by 3% in the latest poll. So, McConnell may get "Dascle'd!"

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With one day shy of six weeks till Election Day, snapcat, there is potential for McCain to lose all those states to you which you have just refered. That is, if a prevailing wind takes hold in Obama's direction.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With one day shy of six weeks till Election Day, snapcat, there is potential for McCain to lose all those states to you which you have just refered. That is, if a prevailing wind takes hold in Obama's direction.

That's a given, and conversely, six weeks is an eternity in the news cycle and Obama could still lose if some seismic shift occurs in the world of foreign policy. Right now, the economy is the #1 issue with voters at 50%. No other issue is in double digits.

I think the meltdown on Wall Street has "legs," and the economy is going to be front and center for a long while, though. A 3% McCain lead in some of these swing states could easily come into the Obama camp if the economy remains issue #1.

In particular, I think McCain was taking Indiana for granted, and to a certain degree I think he wasn't guarding North Carolina enough. These are two deeply red states that McCain may lose in.

A new poll in Ohio finds the race tied there.

Southern Political Report:
TIE

Tuesday, September 23, 2008
545 likely voters
Dates of interviewing 9/22
Maximum sampling error +/- 4.1​

It's a small sampling, so the results may be dubious at best, but we'll have to continue to watch the polls in Ohio to see what happens next.

The bottom line is that if McCain loses either Ohio or Florida, he can't win. Iowa, New Mexico & Colorado are all in the Obama camp and that makes Ohio no longer necessary for an Obama win.


The daily tracking poll for ABC finds Obama up by 9 points, breaking 50% for the first time in that poll.

McCain's pathway to the White House is a difficult one, for sure.

 

[spearsfan20]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In 1992, Bill Clinton was leading George H.W. Bush ahead 50 percent during the fall campaign. By election day, Clinton lead Bush by 6 points, 43% to 37%. Clinton owned the electoral college by 370. So in retrospect, this is great news for Barack Obama with a big lead this early.

However, Obama has to own those presidential debates to secure a huge victory in November. He will do well on the foreign policy and national security debate on Friday. He's getting himself adjusted to that type of issue. The one that will decide the presidential election will be the economic and domestic policy debate set for mid-October. I expect Obama to slam McCain hard on those issues.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In 1992, Bill Clinton was leading George H.W. Bush ahead 50 percent during the fall campaign. By election day, Clinton lead Bush by 6 points, 43% to 37%. Clinton owned the electoral college by 370. So in retrospect, this is great news for Barack Obama with a big lead this early.

However, Obama has to own those presidential debates to secure a huge victory in November. He will do well on the foreign policy and national security debate on Friday. He's getting himself adjusted to that type of issue. The one that will decide the presidential election will be the economic and domestic policy debate set for mid-October. I expect Obama to slam McCain hard on those issues.

I'm glad you're drawing parallels. And isn't it interesting that both 1992 and 2008 saw the last year in the terms of both Bushes 41 and 43?

As for the debates: I don't know how much of a difference they'll make for me to offer much in the way of commentary or predictions, but I do believe we're at a point in which more people are making up their minds and are ready to make a move. And that they're ready to swing. And they're not going to entrust the next four years to the nominee of the incumbent political party. (Hey, we all have our limits. )

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Today's polls ...

ABC News National Polls, ABC News/Washington Post Poll 9/19-22: Obama 52%, McCain 43%.

Fox News National Polls, FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll 9/22-23: Obama 45%, McCain 39%.

Ipsos National Polls, Ipsos McClatchy 9/18-22: Obama 44%, McCain 43%.

Michigan, Market Research Group of Lansing 9/15-20: McCain 46%, Obama 43%.

Washington, Survey USA 9/21-22: Obama 54%, McCain 43%.

South Carolina, Survey USA 9/21-22: McCain 58%, Obama 39%.

Iowa, Marist College 9/18-21: Obama 46%, McCain 41%.

Kansas, Survey USA 9/21-22: McCain 53%, Obama 41%.

Nevada, Project New West Myers Research Grove Insight 9/14-19: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

New Hampshire, Rasmussen Reports 9/23: McCain 49%, Obama 47%

New Hampshire, Marist College 9/17-21: Obama 48%, McCain 45%.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snapcat just hit on some of the polls; here are the rest from today:

ALABAMA -- McCain +21 -- Rasmussen
COLORADO -- 1) Obama +3 -- Rasmussen; 2) Obama +9 -- InsiderAdvantage; 3) Obama +4 -- CNN
FLORIDA -- McCain +5 -- Strategic Vision
HAWAII -- Obama +41 -- Rasmussen
MARYLAND -- Obama +23 -- Rasmussen
MICHIGAN -- Obama +5 -- CNN -- note that McCain lead in Snappy MRG Michigan poll.
MONTANA -- McCain +9 -- CNN -- Gov Sweitzer, Dem, is also trailing in the polls.
PENNSYLVANIA -- 1) Obama +9 -- CNN; 2) Obama +1 -- Stategic Vision
WEST VIRGINIA -- McCain +4 -- CNN
VIRGINIA -- McCain +3 -- NBC

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It looks like Fox managed to find substantially more "undecideds" than ABC!

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It looks like Fox managed to find substantially more "undecideds" than ABC!

Fox probably doesn't really push for "well, which way are you leaning?" Unless the numbers are already in Murd. . . er, I mean McCain's favor.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The latest from this morning:

North Carolina Rasmussen McCain 47, Obama 49 Obama +2
Wisconsin Research 2000 Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
Maine SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 44 Obama +5
Michigan EPIC-MRA Obama 48, McCain 38 Obama +10
National Battleground Tracking Obama 47, McCain 48 McCain +1
National F&M/Hearst-Argyle Obama 45, McCain 47 McCain +2


Rasmussen even has Obama ahead now in North Carolina. Ouch! Maybe he can pull this state off, afterall.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I like the way you show your polls: you show the results for both candidates and we can see the number of undecideds from that. Sammie's habit of "Obama +2" or "McCain +4" doesn't give an inkling of undecideds. Just my two cents, sammie.

B'back I'm not sure if you can deduce the undecided from the poll numbers.

Does anyone know if its 48-45% Obama that means 7% are undecided or does it mean that of those who have expressed an opinion that is the result with the 7% either voting for someone else or not voting at all?

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I like the way you show your polls: you show the results for both candidates and we can see the number of undecideds from that. Sammie's habit of "Obama +2" or "McCain +4" doesn't give an inkling of undecideds. Just my two cents, sammie.

I'll second that motion! Actual numbers are better when you're dealing in masses of people; spreads are for betting on sports.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A CNN report on Montana not reacting favorably to the bailouts has me thinking the McCain-favored numbers are going to turn toward Obama.

Montana has voted identically with Colorado over the last 15 elections (1948-2004). I'm suspecting Mont. will ultimately be won by Obama (if Colo. also goes for Obama, which I believe will indeed happen). And of the those 15 elections, both states voted for Democrats only three times: Harry Truman, 1948; Lyndon Johnson, 1964; and Bill Clinton, 1992. All three won.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=6ACE-1

Dick Morris's latest Electoral College map prediction (Sept. 22) has Illinois senator Barack Obama winning with a minimum 291. Arizona senator John McCain arrives at 183. And a few states with an outstanding balance of 64 electoral votes between them are highlighted not in red (McCain) or blue (Obama) but yellow.

Fox News Channel contributor Morris, wanting McCain to win, gives advice. But his strategizing is wishful thinking. In past elections of 1932, 1980, and 1992 the economy was key to sinking the election for the candidate of the incumbent political party. (In 1932, it was Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover. In 1980, it was Democrat Jimmy Carter. In 1992, it was Republican George Bush.) That is what I believe will happen with 2008 Republican nominee McCain—and Democrat Obama will be elected on Nov. 4 as the next, 44th president of the United States.

All in all, what Morris said about the percentile difference translating into a strong Electoral College victory is in line with my own thinking.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=6ACE-1

Dick Morris's latest Electoral College map prediction (Sept. 22) has Illinois senator Barack Obama winning with a minimum 291. Arizona senator John McCain arrives at 183. And a few states with an outstanding balance of 64 electoral votes between them are highlighted not in red (McCain) or blue (Obama) but yellow.

Fox News Channel contributor Morris, wanting McCain to win, gives advice. But his strategizing is wishful thinking. In past elections of 1932, 1980, and 1992 the economy was key to sinking the election for the candidate of the incumbent political party. (In 1932, it was Republican incumbent Herbert Hoover. In 1980, it was Democrat Jimmy Carter. In 1992, it was Republican George Bush.) That is what I believe will happen with 2008 Republican nominee McCain—and Democrat Obama will be elected on Nov. 4 as the next, 44th president of the United States.

All in all, what Morris said about the percentile difference translating into a strong Electoral College victory is in line with my own thinking.

The key difference between his map and the map the rest of us have been following, is it seems like he is predicting that Florida will go Blue by the end of the race. Interesting.

Like someone else said. Florida seems to be that state that always teases the Dems.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

MONTANA -- McCain +9 -- CNN -- Gov Sweitzer, Dem, is also trailing in the polls.

Pollmeister Please clarify. Every poll I've seen from MT has Gov. Schweitzer with a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/governor/montana.html

A CNN report on Montana not reacting favorably to the bailouts has me thinking the McCain-favored numbers are going to turn toward Obama.

Montana has voted identically with Colorado over the last 15 elections (1948-2004). I'm suspecting Mont. will ultimately be won by Obama (if Colo. also goes for Obama, which I believe will indeed happen). And of the those 15 elections, both states voted for Democrats only three times: Harry Truman, 1948; Lyndon Johnson, 1964; and Bill Clinton, 1992. All three won.

CoolBlue Given current polls, I expect CO to go for Obama. I'd love to see Obama carry MT in November as well. Both states now have Democratic Governors, MT has two Democratic Senators and, according to polls, CO will have two Democratic Senators in Jan. 2009.

MT voting Democratic in the Presidential election is questionable. CO has seen an influx of Midwestern residents in the past decade, who are inclined to vote for the Democratic candidate for President. MT is a big state with a small population. I'm not so sure that it has achieved the "critical mass" of transplants to swing the state to the Democrats in the Presidential election.

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The key difference between his map and the map the rest of us have been following, is it seems like he is predicting that Florida will go Blue by the end of the race. Interesting.

Like someone else said. Florida seems to be that state that always teases the Dems.

I'm feeling some very positive Dem. vibes in Florida right now. People here are talking openly about the election. It used to be something you only expressed with bumper stickers. In my store we have a large coffee bar with a big screen TV, always tuned to CNN. There are constantly people listening with interest when Obama is the subject, and walking-away shaking their heads when McCain or Palin are the topic.

Bumper stickers here are mainly Obama. The few McCain stickers you see are on 4x4s & big SUVs. There are campaign signs for every local, state, and federal office you can imagine, on seemingly every square inch of public space. A HUGE number of the red ones have been vandalized with spray paint saying simply "Obama!"

I had dinner with a friend at Applebee's in Sarasota, where the only news channel is FoxNews, because it's the local favorite. The middle aged and older guys around the bar who you'd normally think of as "ditto-heads" were openly discussing McCain and his "grandstanding" yesterday. They're fed-up with him.

For the first time since I've lived here, Florida is starting to feel blue!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The phenonman that currently has me intrigued is the latest polls from North Carolina showing Obama ahead in the Tarheel State. I would have thought Virginia would have flipped blue, first.