15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm turning 21 years (252 months) in January, so I'll be 250 months later this month. Hey, I once celebrated turning 1,000 weeks old (also during Barack's campaign LOL).

You are a strange one, B'back....perhaps a little too much time on your hands!!! I take back my Happy Birthday sentiments, and will save them for January.

And you did so well on your electoral projections because of all the great data provided by the pollmeister...right, B'back? Geez, where's the love?

Yes, indeed, it was nice to see some new states in play for '08. I'm not sure if Dean is the rocket scientist people make him out to be. Any moron could see from the last 2 elections that Gore and Kerry put themselves in a narrow box by not making the playground large enough to create several, alternate winning scenarios. With the exception of VA, NC and IN, all of the states that Obama won were states claimed by Bill Clinton, so it wasn't like most of the Obama states have never heard of a Democrat. Clinton won in all those western states at least once--NV, NM, CO, and he won in MT once. Clinton didn't win in VA or NC, but he did take victories in FL and added GA, LA, AR, TN, KY, MO and WV. The electoral results were very similar--370 in 1992, 379 in 1996, and 365 in 2008.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

One thing people should look at is how much stronger the Democratic—and how much weaker the Republican—party performances were in a number of states.

To name one example: Missouri voted for George W. Bush with 53 percent in 2004. In Election 2008, John McCain—at the advantage in claiming the 11 electoral votes in the Show-Me State not yet called—lost three percentage points. That's a declined GOP brand. And that's a Democratic gain. (When you do some analyzing, of course.)

In looking at a second example: In my home state, John Kerry carried Michigan in 2004 with 51 percent. I noticed that if one were to count every county in that state short of Wayne County (Detroit is its county seat), George W. Bush would've carried Mich. in 2004. But when Wayne County was counted, Kerry carried it overwhelmingly and won the state by 160,000-plus votes. Well, it wasn't close in 2008 Michigan. Barack Obama won the Wolverine State by more than 440,000 votes and 15 percentage points (roughly 57.5 percent; and that's almost 3-to-2 in votes). And this suggests the McCain Camp did the right thing in pulling out—that Mich., the nation's hardest hit in terms of job losses, was not within the Republicans' reach. In fact, the Grand Rapids area—that's Kent County—actually moved away from the GOP to the point that the party lost it. (Kent County voted for Bush in 2004 with 59 percent, and the Democrats this year won Kent Country with .5 percentage points over the Republicans.)

I will provide a link for anyone wanting to check out such information. (The page takes one to Michigan info. But you can check out any state in the "Select a State" pull-down menu.) People should do so, if interested, to see the comparisons between 2004 and 2008, so that they can get an idea what differences were made in the likes of Michigan, Missouri, Ohio—and, say, another state I tend to visit (because of a relative residing there), Colorado. Woa! It is truly … fascinating.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/mi.htm