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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Bareback1988 said:
It looks like my prediction from October 22 was very close so far:



Only four states left to call, I hope they all go to Obama but I stand by my prediction from two weeks ago: for Obama NC, IN and MO; and for McCain MT.
Click to expand...


B'back....boy, get back to sleep...you need your beauty rest!!!

Missouri looks iffy, but it's alot like GA in that the Dem precincts report last.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Indiana and North Carolina will both go to Obama. McCain will get Missouri and Montana.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ICO7 said:
Nah, but you brought up an interesting point, so I took to investigating it. Since I couldn't fully investigate it until AFTER today's election, I was only finalizing it.

btw, CNN finally has NC at 100%---Obama won it. So close, but a win is a win.

It's a mandate!
Click to expand...

I was just about to bring that up...I just noticed at cnnpolitics.com that all the vote was in...YET, the nets aren't calling it. Are we looking at a recount?

The 538 website is thinking Obama will get NC and probably IN based on where the outstanding vote is. They said MO didn't look too good, and the outstanding MT vote is in GOP areas.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Bareback1988 said:
It looks like my prediction from October 22 was very close so far:



Only four states left to call, I hope they all go to Obama but I stand by my prediction from two weeks ago: for Obama NC, IN and MO; and for McCain MT.
Click to expand...


You'll like this gossip, B'back, CBS was saying a short time ago that one of Obama's leading candidates for Attorney General is likely to be AZ Gov Janet Napolitano.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ICO7 said:
Nah, but you brought up an interesting point, so I took to investigating it. Since I couldn't fully investigate it until AFTER today's election, I was only finalizing it.

btw, CNN finally has NC at 100%---Obama won it. So close, but a win is a win.

It's a mandate!
Click to expand...

Really proud of your state tonight.

I most certainly was not expecting it to happen, but I was very pleasantly surprised.

Wonder where Marley is?
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie13 said:
I was just about to bring that up...I just noticed at cnnpolitics.com that all the vote was in...YET, the nets aren't calling it. Are we looking at a recount?

The 538 website is thinking Obama will get NC and probably IN based on where the outstanding vote is. They said MO didn't look too good, and the outstanding MT vote is in GOP areas.
Click to expand...

They won't do a recount for just the presidential race, given the way the rest of the country has gone. If there's another race that's really close, though, they might piggyback on that and recount both.

I'm tired of waiting for NC to turn blue; I'm outa here.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With 99% of precincts reporting in Missouri, Obama trails by 554 votes. However, it looks like the votes missing are coming from a tiny, rural county in SE Missouri that is only report 37% of their vote. These are likely McCain votes to be counted.

Good Job, North Carolina!!! I wouldn't believe it if I wasn't seeing it!!!! And you rid the world of that annoying Lizzy Dole.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

MSNBC has declared Obama the victor in Indiana...CNN no call yet
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Bareback1988, it looks like your predictions were the closest of anybody's. Apparently only (probably) wrong in Missouri and that's it...

It's so amazing that you made that prediction two weeks ago and it was so close. These last two weeks preceding the election have felt like an eternity.

You can definitely be an honorary American, at least here in JUB!
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In GA with 96% reporting, Sen Saxby Shameless's has now dropped to 50.3% of the vote. If he falls under 50.0%, he will be in a runoff with Dem challenger Martin.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Missouri finally broke it's winning streak of predicting presidential elections. Wow!

I had faith in North Carolina, and that faith paid off. I underestimated Obama in Indiana slightly. Incidentally, for those of you that called MO for Obama and IN for McCain, it's a wash - both have 11 delegates.

In retrospect, I'm more curious than ever abouyt just what the hell is going on in Georgia. Did they have to count provisional ballots there?

VA was closer than I expected, and North Dakota wasn't as in play as I thought. That's probably one state that the polling just couldn't nail down.

I think the biggest joy for me was seeing Ohio called so quickly.

I hope all of you will join in on a Cabinet Appointment thread. Has anyone started one yet?
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ICO7 said:
I'm not sure why it isn't being called. I went to the NCBoE website, and saw nothing about it---I did see the voter turnout was 68.37% of registered voters, and nearly half of the state's population according to Wikipedia's total.

I did search NC election law, and McCain can challenge the final count if, with regards to the difference, "(2) For a statewide ballot item, one-half of one percent (0.5%) of the votes cast in the ballot item, or 10,000 votes, whichever is less." Since it is obvious McCain lost, I don't see why he'd do it. And it doesn't matter, because the final count difference is greater than both of those---the difference was over 11,000.

NC has gone blue: http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/13221/en/summary.html
Click to expand...

No automatic recount law, huh? I know a few states have those, so if the result is within a certain margin, there's a recount whether anyone asks for it or not.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Georgia continues to perplex.

First, believe it or not, the AP still has not declared McCain the winner here. The AP list GA, NC and MO as undeclared.

Secondly, it does appear that the Senate race between Sen Chambliss and Jim Martin is headed to a runoff. Both candidates say they now believe a runoff will take place on Dec 2. Around sunrise today, Chambliss fell to 49.9% just below the required 50.0% mark.

The problem in GA is these last votes, absentee and early voting from metro Atlanta precincts, are from Democratic areas. Amazing around 10pm last night, McCain and Chambliss were leading by 60-40 margins and then they experienced shrinkage as the night went on. McCain should win by about 5%.

GA turnout was low just as I observed at local precints Tuesday. It was 3% less than 2004, which was shocking to most political followers here. The advanced voting became so trendy here that people thought it was an indicator of a massive turnout. As it was, the people voting were the usual suspects, just voting a little early. Although, Dem African American turnout was heavier, and the GOP turnout was down a little bit.

The runoff will be interesting. The GOP says they will spend whatever is necessary. The question is will Obama use his massive $ and ground network to try and take this seat? We all know turnout for runoffs is usually poor and will unreliable black voters return now that they've won the big prize? The same thing happened in the '92 GA Senate race right after Clinton won GA. It fired up the GOP and in the runoff, Repub challenger Paul Coverdell upset Dem incumbent Wyche Fowler in a runoff blowout.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ICO7 said:
^ I assume some recounts are going on at county/precinct levels.

In honor of this thread, and because I really like xkcd:
election.png
Click to expand...

Could be.

Great cartoon -- except I don't want to hear about anyone running for anything until it's actually election time again.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

ICO7 said:
^ I assume some recounts are going on at county/precinct levels.

In honor of this thread, and because I really like xkcd:
election.png
Click to expand...


I sort of feel like American Idol, Survivor, Desperate Housewives, Heroes, & The Amazing Race all ended last night.

I can't figure out if I should watch Hardball tonight, or what.

This is sort of surreal. No polls, today.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I agree with "surreal"!

I'm tempted to grab my Skinny Dip gloves, SkinnyDip beer, and head for the river.

But the water's about 48 F, and the air only has a few degrees on it, and my metabolism isn't as vigorous as back when.....
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Bareback1988 said:
Believe it or not but so do I. I'm turning 250 months old in two weeks
Click to expand...

Uhm...wouldn't that be 252 months old if you're turning 21?;) In the words of Bill Clinton, "I feel your pain" (only I feel your pain squared) as I turn 516 months old next week. Nevertheless, Happy B'day B'back(*8*).


But guys, another word about polls. They were AWESOME this year despite all the detractors who hate polls. And two of my faves did quite well, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac.

Ras nailed the popular vote Tuesday morning saying it would be 52-46, and they brag about it here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...0082/2008_presidential_election/how_did_we_do

Given the challenges of the first black candidate and trying to isolate how to account for some racially charged turnout, this would have been a year where you might have thought polling would deliver some dismal accuracy results, but that wasn't the case. Ras was only so-so with their state results. They mis-prognosticated 7 states, which you can see here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._rasmussen_poll_results_presidential_election

But, if you look at state polls all around, including some of the last ones I posted here , they did very well. Recall the day before the election, 3/4 polls called Missouri a TIE and 3/5 had Obama up in FL by +2, and one by +4. He won FL by +3. NC and IN had the worst polling results, but clearly we now see why. They had OH, PA, and VA as well as the western prizes all pretty close to the final results.

So, long live the polls!!!!
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've rarely cared much about polls before, but this election was different in that there were so many polls in so many states. It was nice to be able to see that people in more than just a few states count for something!
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com did an amazing job at predicting the electoral map and the popular vote:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

McCain will win MO, but it looks like Obama might take an electoral vote in Omaha, NE.
 
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