15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

well Stevens is for sure going down. I wonder if that is putting pressure on the top race.

Maybe. Usually it works the other way, but when anger at a party meets anger at a candidate, it seems reasonable to assume there will be a small degree of spillover.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

For the 129th time, I am amending my electoral prediction because I know how critically important my projection is to the JuB community!!! I have moved North Carolina to McCain because: a) the polls above show movement to McCain; b) NC has tricked us Dems before. In 1992, it was the ONLY state among the battlefields that the Clinton campaign focused on that did not turn blue; c) there really are still alot of rednecks there (and I use that term lovingly) and much of the Obama focus has been on young people, who are plentful in NC, and I think they will be a disappointment with turnout.

So, my count is Obama wins 349-189.

In the meantime, Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage has a new Georgia poll:

McCain 48, Obama 47, Barr 2, Undecided 2.

Matt Towery, who runs the I.A. organization thinks Georgia could fall to Obama while, ironically, NC and FL could slip to McCain. His theory is based on the black vote...er, rather their lack of black vote compared to GA. The pollster writes:

“McCain will win Georgia if the African-American turnout is less than 32 percent of the overall vote and if Obama’s percentage of the white vote is 26 percent or less. If the turnout for African-Americans is at or above 32 percent or if Obama carries, say, 28 percent of the white vote, then Obama wins. So this will be a nip-and-tuck race. It will not be a 7-point blow out.

“What we’ll be watching early on is returns from smaller counties which will be heavily McCain to see if McCain is performing at the levels he needs to carry the state. It won’t be until late in the evening – and, likely, the next day – that the contest will tighten up and become a race.”

“Georgia has some potential of going Obama while Florida and North Carolina, ironically, could end up slipping into the McCain column. Florida notoriously over-polls Democrats. We saw it in the 2004 race with Kerry and Bush and in other races. Second, both Florida and North Carolina lack what Georgia has – an extremely high black voting age population. Obama has to pull off a much higher white vote in those two states to accomplish what he’s trying to accomplish in Georgia. So in a sense, from the beginning of the night when we start counting votes, Obama may have a better shot in Georgia.”

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_113_646.aspx

And in the Grits column of the Southern Political Report, it could be that DIXIE POLITICS IS ABOUT TO GET GAYER!

Gay Winners in Dixie? In Oklahoma, Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth (D), an openly gay official appointed to a vacancy by Gov. Brad Henry (D), leads with 47% to 35% for his challenger, Dana Murphy (R), according to a TvPoll for KWTV and by a closer 49% to 46% says SurveyUSA. If Roth wins, he will become the first openly gay elected statewide officeholder in the South…..And in South Carolina, US Rep. Henry Brown (R) has a weak-for-an-incumbent lead of 50% to 45% over philanthropist/activist Linda Ketner (D), according to a SurveyUSA poll. Ketner has been lowkey on the subject, but has not made a secret of her sexual identity and has been endorsed by gay and lesbian groups.

http://southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_113_645.aspx

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That last may be the most important outcome of the whole thing!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And here are my final predictions .....

Missouri, Indiana, and North Dakota are the closets calls for me, particularly Missouri. But in the end, I'm calling for a 364 - 174 Obama win!

This has been fun, guys!

Hope to see you all back later today and tonight to see if we were right.

Virginia will be our first indication of what's going to happen. If Virginia is called for Obama quickly, then I think the rest of the night will be cake.

 

[smelter]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Virginia will be our first indication of what's going to happen. If Virginia is called for Obama quickly, then I think the rest of the night will be cake.

Wouldn't it be sweet if Arizona turned blue! The Goldwater family defection might be bigger than we think.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It will be interesting to see where the conservative movement goes after this election. I suspect they would have greater success if they did follow the Goldwater model, rather than the Reagan model.

But I think Arizona could absolutely go blue given the right candidate. If McCain had no been on the ticket, the flip might have been this time.

 

[chatolandia]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

This is my guess

I tend to be a bit of a pessimist, although I do think Obama has a good chance of winning

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Obama's western firewall gives him the luxury of losing some states in the East.

Thank you Howard Dean!

 

[tommyj]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snap, great observation about Howard. His 50 state strategy paid off. I mean I saw John King's "magic map" on CNN last night had MT and ND as tossups!!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Obama absolutely embraced that strategy, and it's working! Pre-Palin, we were competitive in Alaska, even. The groundwork laid in some of the caucus states is amazing - particularly Nevada. Moving Nevada up to January was a smart move.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Snapcat, your map looks like of the many versions of my electoral map....actually, I guess your map was like my next to last version. On my last map, I decided to toss North Carolina back to McCain. Yeah, Indiana, NC, and Missouri...nobody has a clue!!!!! Just think how tense people would be about those 3 states IF this were anticipated to be a close election. As it is, those 3 states are just gravy for Obama.

It was nice to see the Dems making at least a little bit of effort in the South after ignoring the region (except FL) the last two cycles. I hope that come Wed, Obama will look at the GA results and realize that just a little effort there could have produced a win in the state.

This morning on "Morning Joe" they were discussing whether Dems or Repubs could ever return to being national parties again. Right now, they are so heavily regionalized with Dems in the Northeast, Great Lakes, and Pacific Coast and Repubs in the Great Plains and South. They noted that this could start a strong effort in that direction for the Dems (if Obama can keep Congress disciplined). They also noted that most of the congressional Repubs now are southerners.

I don't begin to believe that a McCain loss means the GOP will come out of the Dark Ages. In fact, I think they will become more absolute that they need another true Reagan conservative. The problem with that is that America's demographics aren't what they were in 1980 and 1984. His messages alone can't win an election anymore. They must branch out and diversify, but their base won't let them.

It was Pat Buchanaon, of all people, this morning who predicted that probably by the next election cycle, TEXAS will become a likely Democratic state. That would devastate the GOP. They offset the Dems strength in NY and CA with FL and TX...Florida has been slowly fading from their grasp, they can ill afford Texas to flip.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I don't begin to believe that a McCain loss means the GOP will come out of the Dark Ages. In fact, I think they will become more absolute that they need another true Reagan conservative. The problem with that is that America's demographics aren't what they were in 1980 and 1984. His messages alone can't win an election anymore. They must branch out and diversify, but their base won't let them.

Along those lines Sammie I was thinking yesterday that if Obama wins tonight and has a successful presidency (which he's well set up for with time working to both fix the economy and get us out of Iraq before he faces voters again) thats a scenario which I can see allowing Sarah Palin to be the republican nominee in 12.

The saner part of the party won't fight the social right in an election which will be difficult to win and give them their candidate who could easily be Mrs. Palin.

Of course she'll get her ass kicked which,needing to win one, might silence the base and allow the party to adjust to the current america rather than trying to get the current america to adjust to them.

Of course the problem with religion in politics is that when God is on your side compromise seems unnecessary so might silence is the operative phrase.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Along those lines Sammie I was thinking yesterday that if Obama wins tonight and has a successful presidency (which he's well set up for with time working to both fix the economy and get us out of Iraq before he faces voters again) thats a scenario which I can see allowing Sarah Palin to be the republican nominee in 12.

The saner part of the party won't fight the social right in an election which will be difficult to win and give them their candidate who could easily be Mrs. Palin.

Of course she'll get her ass kicked which,needing to win one, might silence the base and allow the party to adjust to the current america rather than trying to get the current america to adjust to them.

Of course the problem with religion in politics is that when God is on your side compromise seems unnecessary so might silence is the operative phrase.

Good point,N.G., and I could see that scenario happening. If Obama fails though, and a conservative wins in '12 or even '16, then once again they simply think that they were "right" all along. I do think America is more conservative than liberal, but I think it's just barely right of center...no where near the direction that the GOP keeps taking their party.

In regards to '12, I think Palin would have a fight against Romney and Huckabee. The Huckster could be a force....he's no dummy, he's quick on his feet, and he's naturally folksy and charming...plus, he has a populist economic message that focuses on re-building infrasturcture. He's "conservative", yet he's more like a southern Democratic Governor than Republican. Then, there is Romney who pulls in the big Wall St money. Or even Gov Jindall of Louisiana if the Repubs want some youth and freshness. Palin is no slam dunk for '12. And Jindall can see Mexico from his porch.

Hey, I'm gonna miss this thread....much like B'backs old VP thread. I kinda like the theads that go on for a while and the conversation twists and turns. I'm sad to see the election end (but not the commercials).

Oh, and B'back, you're welcome!! Wish we could make you an honorary American...you know more about US politics than 90% of the people living here. Do you ever plan on re-visiting America once the GOP is kicked out?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm kinda' sad that this thread will wind down as the election closes, too. Everyone here deserves a pat on the back for keeping the conversation elevated and informative.

 

[Sausy]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm kinda' sad that this thread will wind down as the election closes, too. Everyone here deserves a pat on the back for keeping the conversation elevated and informative.

Count me as one who really appreciates this thread as well,it has beeen one of the best here for the reasons snapcat states,the posts were overwhelmingly informative and the conversations elevated and civil.To those especially that regularly shared their perspectives in this thread,thanks and well done.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We've had a great group of people, sharing some great ideas.

Of course we'll have to discuss the cabinet appointments .....


LOL!

 

[LilBit]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We've had a great group of people, sharing some great ideas.

Of course we'll have to discuss the cabinet appointments .....


LOL!

Think Hillary will get anything?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Think Hillary will get anything?

Good question, and one I can't answer right now. My guy says no, but that's just an initial guess. I can't see how she could be omitted from the health care reform, when that comes up.

 

[jjmc]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

go obama!!!!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Alright, Sammie, I'm not going to stop with this fight with you.

In 2004, youth vote was 16.5%, and as I detailed earlier, that was around 586,144 voters out of the total 2004 votes of 3,552,449. CNN exit poll has it around 17% this year, which is not only a percentage increase, but so far the votes cast are 4,190,845. By this math, which is incomplete (NC is still undecided at 99% precincts reporting) and via CNN exit poll data, 712,443 18-29 year olds participated in NC. Remember in 2004 Kerry lost NC by 435,317---the difference between 2008 and 2004 youth votes were 126,299, 30% of the difference Kerry needed. And remember that any 26 year olds and older from 2004 would no longer be included in the 'youth vote'. That 30% matters right now as the difference between Obama or McCain getting this state's 15 EVs is a slim 13,505 votes.

And Lostlover, you might want to stay away from the NC exit polls regarding the 'educated vote'.

Oh, were we fighting? I was merely predicting the youth vote was being over-rated. You are right that in NC, the youth vote seems to make a difference since, I believe, it was the only white demographic that Obama carried in NC. Nationally, I can't recall now if it was Katie Couric or Diane Sawyer as I've been channel surfing, but they said the youth vote was up only slightly, but that it went Democratic in far greater numbers than in the past.

A few other observations:

**Obama coat-tails have not been as impressive as some thought in congressional races.

**Some of the early voting was falsely assumed to be in favor of Obama. I think, at least in GA where I drove by numerous polling stations today that were relatively dead, that the early voters were mainly the same people who always vote on election day...they just went early. Today's turnout was nothing spectacular here.

**The good ol' South really didn't change much, excluding VA and NC. Voting was still along racial lines and the more fired up that blacks were merely served to fire up the white Repubs to counter the black votes.

**All in all, a great showing by Obama. It's damn hard for a Democrat to win, and you take a win any way you can get it. He put in place quite a machine, and needed every bit of it.


I'll look further later at how the polls performed. But, obviously, on the national polls most had him with leads bigger than 4%. Perhaps the Bradley Effect was in place OR some pollsters over-stated the Dem turnout. All in all, McCain really did better than a Repub should have given all that ails this country under 8 years of Bush. Oh, and the 3 states that I found the polls to be the closest--NC, IN, MO-- are the ones that are still undecided. So, the state polls were really solid from PA to FL to OH to VA.