15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm glad you posted this!
Just last night I was sitting here trying to remember what presidents in recent memory have broken the 400 number. I was confident Reagan did, but it's nice to see the figure.
Did Nixon do it?

Go to 270toWin.com. Look at past elections. The previous winner was George Bush, in 1988, when he landslided Michael Dukakis with 426 electoral votes. It's easier these days for a Republican to get that 400 mark because he's winning with the states that look like "blue" states that, in reality, were simply won over in 1992 by Bill Clinton (and kept choosing the color blue after the former president left office).

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Three new polls:

Florida CNN/Time O 51, M 47 Obama +4
Florida InAdv/PollPosition O 49, M46 Obama +3
Oklahoma SurveyUSA M 64, O 34 McCain +30

The polls in Florida are pretty much agreeing that this is not an outlier situation. Whether they'll stick is another question.

Edit to add six more from various polls:

Missouri 48/49 Obama +1
Minnesota 54/43 Obama +11
Virginia 53/44 Obama +9
Nevada 47/48 Obama +1
Nevada 47/51 Obama +4
Florida 46/42 Obama +4

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And one more:

Wisconsin 47/40 Obama +9

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New Polls .... (my apologies if any are reposts)

Florida, Quinnipiac University 9/27-29: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.

Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University 9/27-29: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.

Ohio, Survey USA 9/28-29: McCain 49%, Obama 48%.
Ohio, Quinnipiac University 9/27-29: Obama 49%, McCain 42%.
Ohio, Insider Advantage 9/29: Obama 47%, McCain 45%.

Georgia, Survey USA 9/28-29: McCain 52%, Obama 44%.

New Jersey, Strategic Vision 9/26-28: Obama 48%, McCain 39%.

Virginia, Insider Advantage 9/29: Obama 51%, McCain 45%.

Indiana, Survey USA 9/28-29: McCain 48%, Obama 45%.

Arizona, Rasmussen Reports 9/29: McCain 59%, Obama 38%.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New Polls .... (my apologies if any are reposts)

Three red state Rasmussen Polls that I know haven't been posted:

Tennessee 58/39 McCain +19
Mississippi 52/44 McCain +8
Texas 52/43 McCain +9

The margin is narrower in all three.

I think we may be looking at a serious shift. Nevada has changed to blue on RCP's "no toss-up" map. The same sort of shift is happening at Pollster. I'm eager to see the VP debate and its effect on the map.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Alright, to me, this is a staggering accomplishment. Here is the State of the Race over at politico.com.

To see Nevada, Florida, and Ohio flip on the same day has got to send shockwaves throughout the McCain campaign. On top of that, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire are in the Obama column.

I imagine we'll see the kitchen sink being thrown at Obama in the near future. I think it all comes down to if McCain can change the conversation of the country in the next 4 weeks.

We may be looking at the start of a "tipping point" but I'm not completely prepared to go out on that limb yet.

In the 2 battleground states that McCain is leading, his lead is narrow in both Missouri and Indiana.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

McCain will be fundraising in Los Angeles tonight and will appear in Denver tomorrow. Obama will be in Grand Rapids and Lansing tomorrow. Palin will be at a watch-party after the debate tomorrow night in St. Louis.

Of these, I'm most eager to see what's happening in Michigan.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Those of us who thought the debates would tell the tale are nodding our heads.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Those of us who thought the debates would tell the tale are nodding our heads.

I wonder how much was the debate and how much is the circus that has surrounded the stock market drop and the bail-out plan. McCain made such a show of swooping into Washington to save the day, and he fell flat on his face. He didn't even give his opinion of Paulson's bail-out plan at the White House meeting. They held the debate which was close or a draw. Then the plan failed and the Dow dropped 777 points. Now we get this flurry of polls starting Monday morning favoring Obama everywhere except Arizona and Oklahoma.

We haven't seen any polls from Michigan since all this got started, and Obama has two stops there tomorrow. I'm eager to see if all this has clinched Michigan.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm looking forward to more polling, as I'm anticipating a landslide for Obama. Bring it on, Georgia, South Carolina, and West Virginia! You too, Missouri!

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Here's a fresh round of polls ....

Texas, Rasmussen Reports 9/29: McCain 52%, Obama 43%.

Florida, CNN/TIME 9/28-30: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Florida, Insider Advantage 9/30: Obama 49%, McCain 46%.

Pennsylvania, Franklin Marshall 9/23-28: Obama 45%, McCain 38%.

Virginia, CNN/TIME 9/28-30: Obama 53%, McCain 44%.

Missouri, CNN/TIME 9/28-30: Obama 49%, McCain 48%.

Tennessee, Rasmussen Reports 9/29: McCain 58%, Obama 39%.

Minnesota, CNN/TIME 9/28-30: Obama 54%, McCain 43%.

Wisconsin, Strategic Vision 9/26-28: Obama 49%, McCain 40%.

Oklahoma, Survey USA 9/28-29: McCain 64%, Obama 34%.

Mississippi, Rasmussen Reports 9/30: McCain 52%, Obama 44%.

Nevada, CNN/TIME 9/28-30: Obama 51%, McCain 47%.
Nevada, Insider Advantage 9/30: Obama 48%, McCain 47%.


Trend lines continue to show people in those battleground states breaking for Obama. I think these findings just sort of reinforce the polls from yesterday. State polls take a few days to catch up to national average polls, so I would expect these numbers to get even better over the next few days.

It's worth noting that Obama does not have this "in the bag" yet. With 4 weeks to go before the election, the country might well start looking at McCain as the underdog, and the electorate could still break his way. A month ago McCain was on top of the polls by several points. Who knows what the next month will bring.

But I don't think the economy will completely disappear from the national conversation.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A month ago McCain was on top of the polls by several points. Who knows what the next month will bring.

McCain was up from his convention bounce, as was Obama after his. After things settled out and the general election began, people heard from both candidates in the debate, and the choice got more clear, it seems people have clearly started to prefer Obama. I think it's highly unlikely that his lead will evaporate at this point as opinions are more informed and solidified now, and early voting has already begun.

But yes you are right that anything can happen and there are no certainties. The race may tighten a little as we approach election day (that's usually what happens) but I still see Obama going in with a lead. Then it all depends on turnout.

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yes, how many of these newly registered democrats will actually show up to vote in the battleground states? That's the $64,000 question. If I had to guess, I'd say about half.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I'm looking forward to more polling, as I'm anticipating a landslide for Obama. Bring it on, Georgia, South Carolina, and West Virginia! You too, Missouri!

I doubt a landslide is possible. No matter how I look at it, I don't see Obama even hitting 400.

Yes, how many of these newly registered democrats will actually show up to vote in the battleground states? That's the $64,000 question. If I had to guess, I'd say about half.

If there were a way to throw barbecues or something a block from every polling place, free to newly registered Democrats who'd just voted.....

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I doubt a landslide is possible. No matter how I look at it, I don't see Obama even hitting 400.

They're possible. What's happened with the latest polling is real movement. To Obama. And the bailouts are signifying the end of Republicans' hopes in somehow winning the election. Any additional movement that will be playing out in the weeks leading up to election…will be further movement to Obama. That is where it will be possible for him to landslide McCain in both the popular vote and the electoral college. (The 400 would be achieved if southern states, assumed Safe GOP, move to Obama such as Arkansas and Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina. North Carolina looks like it'll go for Obama, already.)

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

McCain has pulled out of Michigan.

McCain will go off TV in Michigan, stop dropping mail there and send most of his staff to more competitive states, including Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. Wisconsin went for Kerry in 2004, Ohio and Florida for Bush.

A McCain aide confirmed the move and chalked it up to the state's Democratic tilt and the resources Obama had put in place there.

"It was always a long shot for us to win," said the aide.

McCain will now turn his attention to bolstering his defenses in Ohio and Florida while putting more resources into Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and the second congressional district of Maine, where there is a sole electoral vote available.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html?showall


In the meantime, in Georgia, it's game back on as McCain's lead has dwindled to 6 point, 50-44%, according to GA based Insider Advantage. Obama's problem is that only 6% are undecided or opting for 3rd party candidates. Obama must hope that Barr starts cultivating his home state for votes. Another challenge is that Obama is only polling 24% of the white vote in Ga.

Obama's TV ads have started to pick up again in GA as well.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/67_Ga Sept 30.pdf

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I par ruse the Hannity Forum from time to time, and you can tell by the tone on there, that they know things aren't looking good for them right now. Everyone should buzz over for laughs.

Apparently, the world is going to End, as the United States turns into a Communist country, according to them.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^^ I've noticed that.

Their strategy indicates where they think this election is headed.

Their new slogan should be "Its either us or the abyss"

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls ....

New Mexico, Rasmussen, Obama 49 McCain 44

Montana, Rasmussen, McCain 52 Obama 44

North Carolina, Rasmussen, Obama 50 McCain 47

Georgia, InAdv/PollPosition, McCain 50 Obama 44

Kentucky, Rasmussen, McCain 52 Obama 42

Nebraska, Rasmussen, McCain 56 Obama 37

Michigan, PPP, Obama 51 McCain 41

Virginia, Mason-Dixon, McCain 48 Obama 45

New Mexico, SurveyUSA, Obama 52 McCain 44

Pennsylvania, Morning Call Tracking, Obama 50 McCain 41

Colorado, Ciruli Assc., Obama 44, McCain 43

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

They're possible. What's happened with the latest polling is real movement. To Obama. And the bailouts are signifying the end of Republicans' hopes in somehow winning the election. Any additional movement that will be playing out in the weeks leading up to election…will be further movement to Obama. That is where it will be possible for him to landslide McCain in both the popular vote and the electoral college. (The 400 would be achieved if southern states, assumed Safe GOP, move to Obama such as Arkansas and Louisiana, Georgia and South Carolina. North Carolina looks like it'll go for Obama, already.)

Obama will need a lot of serious movement of voters to get all the states needed to hit 400. I can't see it happening -- 360 no problem; 380 maybe. But unless he managed something like convincing the NRA, GOA, and JPFO that he devoutly loves the Second Amendment, I don't see a sufficiently massive shift of voters.