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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election
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MystikWizard
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Somewhat disturbing.
My take on it is:
McCain's strong debate performance
Joe The Plumber and Obama's "Spread the Wealth" comment
Gas Prices Beginning to Lower
ACORN and William Ayers getting more attention
If McCain can find a way to take Virginia, that will be a sizable blow to the Obama Campaign since that could seal the deal for us. I keep going back and forth with Ohio, but I have mixed feelings about that state. And Florida is one of those states that should never be counted on, as we've learned.
Granted, we still have a comfortable lead with Colorado, but that is pretty much our fall-back state ... if all else fails.
Somewhat disturbing.
My take on it is:
McCain's strong debate performance
Joe The Plumber and Obama's "Spread the Wealth" comment
Gas Prices Beginning to Lower
ACORN and William Ayers getting more attention
If McCain can find a way to take Virginia, that will be a sizable blow to the Obama Campaign since that could seal the deal for us. I keep going back and forth with Ohio, but I have mixed feelings about that state. And Florida is one of those states that should never be counted on, as we've learned.
Granted, we still have a comfortable lead with Colorado, but that is pretty much our fall-back state ... if all else fails.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
SurveyUSA has been to Florida what Rasmussen has been to Ohio: dead last in acknowledging an Obama lead. I haven't trusted them on those states. And I took another person's advice, from another site, to add two or three percentage points to the Democrat.
SurveyUSA has been to Florida what Rasmussen has been to Ohio: dead last in acknowledging an Obama lead. I haven't trusted them on those states. And I took another person's advice, from another site, to add two or three percentage points to the Democrat.
MystikWizard
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Is there anyone here from Pennsylvania that can tell us what is going on up there?
I keep hearing many PA residents on the Hannity board mouthing off from different parts of the state that there are almost literally no Obama signs up there, nobody they talk to is voting Obama (big surprise), and that McCain will be taking the state.
I just want to hear from someone from PA on here what they see going on up there with their own eyes.
Is there anyone here from Pennsylvania that can tell us what is going on up there?
I keep hearing many PA residents on the Hannity board mouthing off from different parts of the state that there are almost literally no Obama signs up there, nobody they talk to is voting Obama (big surprise), and that McCain will be taking the state.
I just want to hear from someone from PA on here what they see going on up there with their own eyes.
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I still haven't figured out why people think McCain had a strong debate performance, unless it's being rated on acting ability. The man got corrected by Obama just on facts several times, and several more times sat there and lied about things Obama had just finished explaining. He did a good job plucking the right emotional strings, but in terms of rationality he sucked.
Thinking of gas prices, I heard a conjecture that people overseas are deliberately dropping the price of gas so McCain can win and screw up this country so bad no one will ever have to worry about us again.
Now, if that isn't a twisted conspiracy theory! ....
(*U*)
I still haven't figured out why people think McCain had a strong debate performance, unless it's being rated on acting ability. The man got corrected by Obama just on facts several times, and several more times sat there and lied about things Obama had just finished explaining. He did a good job plucking the right emotional strings, but in terms of rationality he sucked.
Thinking of gas prices, I heard a conjecture that people overseas are deliberately dropping the price of gas so McCain can win and screw up this country so bad no one will ever have to worry about us again.
Now, if that isn't a twisted conspiracy theory! ....
(*U*)
CoolBlue71
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1018.html
10.18.2008 | While Gallup has Obama up 50% to McCain with 42%, 10.15.2008-10.17.2008, Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver questions other pollsters (link, above; one is provided there for Gallup).
What I don't question is a tightening of the race.
On Election Day, I believe Obama will not be winning by, say, 10 points. He may win in the mid-single digits, like 5 or 6 points, which is what Bill Clinton did when he unseated George W. Bush in 1992 (via a plurality of the popular vote). And if the country is really rejecting Republican rule. 2 or 3 points, we may battle each other over party more so than candidate. And that may save the GOP the humiliation of losing Republican bastions like Indiana and North Dakota. (Though I don't believe they'll be spared defeat in Virginia.)
I don't buy into what is really wishful thinking: Republicans talking up an Obama collapse. They've been doing it all election season. No, it is McCain who is on defense in the Electoral College—in states normally Safe GOP and Strong GOP—and his popular vote appears to have peaked at 45% or 46% percent. Electoral geeks—and I've become one—wonder if Obama gets past 50% (the last Democratic winner to do so: Jimmy Carter).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1018.html
10.18.2008 | While Gallup has Obama up 50% to McCain with 42%, 10.15.2008-10.17.2008, Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver questions other pollsters (link, above; one is provided there for Gallup).
What I don't question is a tightening of the race.
On Election Day, I believe Obama will not be winning by, say, 10 points. He may win in the mid-single digits, like 5 or 6 points, which is what Bill Clinton did when he unseated George W. Bush in 1992 (via a plurality of the popular vote). And if the country is really rejecting Republican rule. 2 or 3 points, we may battle each other over party more so than candidate. And that may save the GOP the humiliation of losing Republican bastions like Indiana and North Dakota. (Though I don't believe they'll be spared defeat in Virginia.)
I don't buy into what is really wishful thinking: Republicans talking up an Obama collapse. They've been doing it all election season. No, it is McCain who is on defense in the Electoral College—in states normally Safe GOP and Strong GOP—and his popular vote appears to have peaked at 45% or 46% percent. Electoral geeks—and I've become one—wonder if Obama gets past 50% (the last Democratic winner to do so: Jimmy Carter).
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I was thinking about that earlier. I think Virginia is key right now. I don't see how McCain wins if he loses that state. Right now Obama has an 8 point lead which looks good but there hasn't been any new polls since the last debate. Interested to see how that one looks with more recent numbers.
I was thinking about that earlier. I think Virginia is key right now. I don't see how McCain wins if he loses that state. Right now Obama has an 8 point lead which looks good but there hasn't been any new polls since the last debate. Interested to see how that one looks with more recent numbers.
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Today's polls ....
Texas, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 52%, Obama 40%.
Colorado, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
Mississippi, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.
Nevada, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
Wyoming, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-16: McCain 58%, Obama 35%.
Today's polls ....
Texas, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 52%, Obama 40%.
Colorado, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
Mississippi, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-15: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.
Nevada, Rasmussen Reports 10/16: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
Wyoming, Research 2000 for DailyKos.com 10/14-16: McCain 58%, Obama 35%.
MystikWizard
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
We are up an average of 8.1 in Virginia and an average of 6.0 in Colorado. All the other states are less than +5. Definitely Virginia and Colorado are our best two options to win.
I hope Obama plans on spending plenty of time in Virginia from now until Election Day, and Biden and Hillary plan on spending plenty of time up in Pennsylvania defending the base up there. I know McCain's plan is to try to steal Pennsylvania away, which would cause major problems for the Dems.
We are up an average of 8.1 in Virginia and an average of 6.0 in Colorado. All the other states are less than +5. Definitely Virginia and Colorado are our best two options to win.
I hope Obama plans on spending plenty of time in Virginia from now until Election Day, and Biden and Hillary plan on spending plenty of time up in Pennsylvania defending the base up there. I know McCain's plan is to try to steal Pennsylvania away, which would cause major problems for the Dems.
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Sammie13
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Seems like our economic collapse now has the electorate just blowing in the wind, not really knowing what to do. The candidates are just throwing anything out there to see what resonates. I don't think either one of them have an answer. Obama wants to keep spending to buy our way out of the mess and McCain wants the status quo and has chosen to utilize the well-worn GOP message of "he's going to raise your taxes." It should be an interesting last two weeks, but I would love more substance.
In the race, I would suspect we will see McCain gain some ground as demoralized GOP voters decide to show up at the polls anyway, and fight back against an Obama/Pelosi/Reid government. Some voters will come back home to McCain, but the Dems look to be in good shape for a comfortable win. Obama is even back on the airwaves in GA, which shows me he is feeling pretty good about alot of the 'must have' states.
Seems like our economic collapse now has the electorate just blowing in the wind, not really knowing what to do. The candidates are just throwing anything out there to see what resonates. I don't think either one of them have an answer. Obama wants to keep spending to buy our way out of the mess and McCain wants the status quo and has chosen to utilize the well-worn GOP message of "he's going to raise your taxes." It should be an interesting last two weeks, but I would love more substance.
In the race, I would suspect we will see McCain gain some ground as demoralized GOP voters decide to show up at the polls anyway, and fight back against an Obama/Pelosi/Reid government. Some voters will come back home to McCain, but the Dems look to be in good shape for a comfortable win. Obama is even back on the airwaves in GA, which shows me he is feeling pretty good about alot of the 'must have' states.
CoolBlue71
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Good point about North Dakota.
But…
What I really like about this Georgia poll: McCain is not above 50%. (And we still have more two weeks.) A "tidal wave" would swing Ga. to Obama. And it would help if Democratic challenger Jim Martin were to unseat GOP Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate. (That's another topic to which I am alluding of a potential Republican bloodbath.)
Good point about North Dakota.
But…
What I really like about this Georgia poll: McCain is not above 50%. (And we still have more two weeks.) A "tidal wave" would swing Ga. to Obama. And it would help if Democratic challenger Jim Martin were to unseat GOP Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate. (That's another topic to which I am alluding of a potential Republican bloodbath.)
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Correcting myself after catching it days ago: Too quick for my own good, I accidentally wrote "George W. Bush" when I meant George H. W. Bush, who I normally refer to as George Bush. (I don't have kids; but if I did, all our names would be separate.
)
Correcting myself after catching it days ago: Too quick for my own good, I accidentally wrote "George W. Bush" when I meant George H. W. Bush, who I normally refer to as George Bush. (I don't have kids; but if I did, all our names would be separate.
)
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
A question to the local pundits:
Will Powell's endorsement stir the military community in Virginia enough to bring Obama significant numbers of votes?
A question to the local pundits:
Will Powell's endorsement stir the military community in Virginia enough to bring Obama significant numbers of votes?
Sammie13
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
I'll take the bait, Coolblue!!! However, don't look for those tidal wave waters to encompass the Peach State. We have really high tsunami walls here
. And my hunch, as worthless as it may be, is that the waters will recede from a number of the tidal wave warning states by November 4. I still think McCain will win in MO and NC as well as ND and IN. Ohio and Florida are totally up in the air. Obama should come out with a descent win thanks to everybody's suffering at the hands of the Bush economy.
One interesting thing here in GA is that Saxby Shameless is suddenly in for one helleva battle with underfunded Jim Martin in that US Senate battle (yes, I have a Martin for Senate sign in my front yard). This was not supposed to be a close race, but one poll has it as a tie.
This '08 race has had so many twists and turns that it has exhausted me. Kudos to you, Cool, for being spot on for months (assuming there isn't another wild curve ahead).
I'll take the bait, Coolblue!!! However, don't look for those tidal wave waters to encompass the Peach State. We have really high tsunami walls here
. And my hunch, as worthless as it may be, is that the waters will recede from a number of the tidal wave warning states by November 4. I still think McCain will win in MO and NC as well as ND and IN. Ohio and Florida are totally up in the air. Obama should come out with a descent win thanks to everybody's suffering at the hands of the Bush economy.One interesting thing here in GA is that Saxby Shameless is suddenly in for one helleva battle with underfunded Jim Martin in that US Senate battle (yes, I have a Martin for Senate sign in my front yard). This was not supposed to be a close race, but one poll has it as a tie.
This '08 race has had so many twists and turns that it has exhausted me. Kudos to you, Cool, for being spot on for months (assuming there isn't another wild curve ahead).
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
No to Missouri, Sammie13. (By the way: It's great to see you are back!)
Barack Obama will win Missouri.
Ever since Republicans and Democrats first squared off in 1856, it is true that no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. That, in fact, gets mentioned quite often. But it's also true that every Democratic victor carried Missouri. (See #795.)
Nevada is the third wheel of a trio of leading bellwethers. One of which I have witten about, plenty, here at Just Us Boys. (I imagine some are bored.)
Nev. entered the union in 1864; and, as an unintentional unit with Mo. and Ohio, it has reliably backed election winners. I have, in earlier posts, used the last 25 elections (1908–2004) as examples. During that period, Mo. was only wrong once, in 1956 (going for losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson). Ohio was wrong in 1944 and 1960 (with losing Republicans Thomas Dewey and Richard Nixon). Nev. got it wrong in 1908 (with losing Democrat William J. Bryan) and 1976 (with losing Republican Gerald Ford). Collectively, they have backed 20 of the last 25 winners (for 80 percent). Individually, Mo. has gone 24-for-25 (96 percent). Nev. and Ohio, each 23-for-25 (92 percent.)
I wrote much about this, in earlier postings, and there has never been a case in which the election winner lost all three leading bellwether states. I mentioned it because some folks—in their Electoral College predictions—have forecast an Obama win while believing John McCain would win Mo., Nev., and Ohio. …Uh, no! (By the way: the last to win just one of those three was William McKinley, in 1900.)
I wrote, again much earlier, about the last 75 years of elections—spanning a 60-year period—dealing with a terrible economy and/or unpopular war. An unpopular president as well. That, in each of those cases, we did not once reward the incumbent political party with the White House for the following four years. Those elections were 1932 (Great Depression), 1952 (Korean War), 1968 (Vietnam War), 1980 (Inflation), and 1992 (Recession). Party pickups resulted in all, with Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. In their victories, all swept the bellwethers. In 2008, we're dealing with an election year with both economy and war—and a low-approval president.
What I am stating with this phenom of winners routinely carrying Mo., Nev., and Ohio: It means that when a Republican wins the election, Ohio backs him. When a Democrat wins, Mo., backs him. And whichever one wins, grabs the other's turf (majority of elections). And, in most cases, Nev. joins in as well. Which makes it… complete.
The next, 44th president of the United States—and I am predicting it will be Barack Obama—will carry all three bellwethers: Mo., Nev., and Ohio.
NOTE I'm going to keep an open mind on Georgia for this reason: possible, further movement toward Obama. That is what would bring the state. As I've mentioned here: Every Democratic winner has carried either Georgia or Florida. Sometimes both. But at least one of the two. Not true on the Republican side: for example, Warren Harding (1920) and Calvin Coolidge (1924) lost both Fla. and Ga. in their elections. So while I have been predicting it would be Fla. more inclined to cast an Obama vote more so than Ga., a "tidal wave" makes it very feasible for the Democratic Illinois senator to capture both. (Again, Fla. would be the one…if he wins just one of the two.)
I'll take the bait, Coolblue!!! However, don't look for those tidal wave waters to encompass the Peach State. We have really high tsunami walls here
One interesting thing here in GA is that Saxby Shameless is suddenly in for one helleva battle with underfunded Jim Martin in that US Senate battle (yes, I have a Martin for Senate sign in my front yard). This was not supposed to be a close race, but one poll has it as a tie.
This '08 race has had so many twists and turns that it has exhausted me. Kudos to you, Cool, for being spot on for months (assuming there isn't another wild curve ahead).
No to Missouri, Sammie13. (By the way: It's great to see you are back!)
Barack Obama will win Missouri.
Ever since Republicans and Democrats first squared off in 1856, it is true that no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio. That, in fact, gets mentioned quite often. But it's also true that every Democratic victor carried Missouri. (See #795.)
Nevada is the third wheel of a trio of leading bellwethers. One of which I have witten about, plenty, here at Just Us Boys. (I imagine some are bored.)
Nev. entered the union in 1864; and, as an unintentional unit with Mo. and Ohio, it has reliably backed election winners. I have, in earlier posts, used the last 25 elections (1908–2004) as examples. During that period, Mo. was only wrong once, in 1956 (going for losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson). Ohio was wrong in 1944 and 1960 (with losing Republicans Thomas Dewey and Richard Nixon). Nev. got it wrong in 1908 (with losing Democrat William J. Bryan) and 1976 (with losing Republican Gerald Ford). Collectively, they have backed 20 of the last 25 winners (for 80 percent). Individually, Mo. has gone 24-for-25 (96 percent). Nev. and Ohio, each 23-for-25 (92 percent.)
I wrote much about this, in earlier postings, and there has never been a case in which the election winner lost all three leading bellwether states. I mentioned it because some folks—in their Electoral College predictions—have forecast an Obama win while believing John McCain would win Mo., Nev., and Ohio. …Uh, no! (By the way: the last to win just one of those three was William McKinley, in 1900.)
I wrote, again much earlier, about the last 75 years of elections—spanning a 60-year period—dealing with a terrible economy and/or unpopular war. An unpopular president as well. That, in each of those cases, we did not once reward the incumbent political party with the White House for the following four years. Those elections were 1932 (Great Depression), 1952 (Korean War), 1968 (Vietnam War), 1980 (Inflation), and 1992 (Recession). Party pickups resulted in all, with Franklin Roosevelt, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. In their victories, all swept the bellwethers. In 2008, we're dealing with an election year with both economy and war—and a low-approval president.
What I am stating with this phenom of winners routinely carrying Mo., Nev., and Ohio: It means that when a Republican wins the election, Ohio backs him. When a Democrat wins, Mo., backs him. And whichever one wins, grabs the other's turf (majority of elections). And, in most cases, Nev. joins in as well. Which makes it… complete.
The next, 44th president of the United States—and I am predicting it will be Barack Obama—will carry all three bellwethers: Mo., Nev., and Ohio.
NOTE I'm going to keep an open mind on Georgia for this reason: possible, further movement toward Obama. That is what would bring the state. As I've mentioned here: Every Democratic winner has carried either Georgia or Florida. Sometimes both. But at least one of the two. Not true on the Republican side: for example, Warren Harding (1920) and Calvin Coolidge (1924) lost both Fla. and Ga. in their elections. So while I have been predicting it would be Fla. more inclined to cast an Obama vote more so than Ga., a "tidal wave" makes it very feasible for the Democratic Illinois senator to capture both. (Again, Fla. would be the one…if he wins just one of the two.)
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Good to have you back, Sammie!
How was the vacation?
Good to have you back, Sammie!
How was the vacation?
Sammie13
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Coolblue, sometimes you make my head spin like Linda Blair from The Exorcist.
First, I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like Obama stands a better chance in Florida than in Ohio despite my convictions that FL would never be within his grasp.
What is the deal with Missouri? It is an odd, bellwhether state. It's partly midwestern in mindset, but equally southern in mindset. The African Americans live almost exclusively in the big cities of Kansas City and St Louis. The large countryside is white. Is it conservative like Kansas and Oklahoma? Is it moderate like Iowa and Arkansas and Memphis, TN? Or is it liberal like Illinois? I can't make any sense of MO? What is your take? Is the state simply all of the above and each 4 years depends more on turnout?
Thanks for the kind return welcome, Snapcat and Coolblue.
My New England vacation was awesome and beautiful although rather warm for a Southern boy looking to break out some winter clothes. I visited most of coastal Maine from Ogunquit to Kennebunkport to Portland to Boothbay Harbor to Camden to Bar Harbor. I loved Maine most of all....my kinda place and as their slogan says, "Life as it should be...". I dig those lobster rolls baby. On to the beautiful White Mtns of New Hampshire...hiking and lots of fall foilage color. Then, to Woodstock, VT, which is fantastic country....covered wooden bridges and lots of maple syrup and cheese. From there to Hyde Park, NY where I visited the Franklin Roosevelt library and homestead. You could just sense FDR's overbearing, dominating mother putting poor Eleanor in her place. A must see for history buffs! From there to Danbury, CT for the night and on to Salem, MA to celebrate witches and all that is sinister. Those thick MA accents fascinated me. When episodes of "Sesame Street" were brought to you by the letter "R", I think this region must have had a power outage as my Dixie "R" was about the only one in town. We made it back to Maine and more moose sightings and saw the Bush compound in Kennebunkport before heading back home. Every moment looks like a postcard in the fall in New England. I spent long enough in ME and NH to become tired from the relentless ads by Susan Collins and Tom Allen in the Maine Senate race and John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. Todd Palin got plenty of news coverage in ME as he was campaigning there for McCain and his Barracuda VP. He was a horrible speaker, by the way.
Coolblue, sometimes you make my head spin like Linda Blair from The Exorcist
. First, I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like Obama stands a better chance in Florida than in Ohio despite my convictions that FL would never be within his grasp.
What is the deal with Missouri? It is an odd, bellwhether state. It's partly midwestern in mindset, but equally southern in mindset. The African Americans live almost exclusively in the big cities of Kansas City and St Louis. The large countryside is white. Is it conservative like Kansas and Oklahoma? Is it moderate like Iowa and Arkansas and Memphis, TN? Or is it liberal like Illinois? I can't make any sense of MO? What is your take? Is the state simply all of the above and each 4 years depends more on turnout?
Thanks for the kind return welcome, Snapcat and Coolblue.
My New England vacation was awesome and beautiful although rather warm for a Southern boy looking to break out some winter clothes. I visited most of coastal Maine from Ogunquit to Kennebunkport to Portland to Boothbay Harbor to Camden to Bar Harbor. I loved Maine most of all....my kinda place and as their slogan says, "Life as it should be...". I dig those lobster rolls baby. On to the beautiful White Mtns of New Hampshire...hiking and lots of fall foilage color. Then, to Woodstock, VT, which is fantastic country....covered wooden bridges and lots of maple syrup and cheese. From there to Hyde Park, NY where I visited the Franklin Roosevelt library and homestead. You could just sense FDR's overbearing, dominating mother putting poor Eleanor in her place. A must see for history buffs! From there to Danbury, CT for the night and on to Salem, MA to celebrate witches and all that is sinister. Those thick MA accents fascinated me. When episodes of "Sesame Street" were brought to you by the letter "R", I think this region must have had a power outage as my Dixie "R" was about the only one in town
. We made it back to Maine and more moose sightings and saw the Bush compound in Kennebunkport before heading back home. Every moment looks like a postcard in the fall in New England. I spent long enough in ME and NH to become tired from the relentless ads by Susan Collins and Tom Allen in the Maine Senate race and John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen in NH. Todd Palin got plenty of news coverage in ME as he was campaigning there for McCain and his Barracuda VP. He was a horrible speaker, by the way.
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Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
Sammie, that trip sounds like a great vacation!
I was also one of the people who had ruled Florida out for Obama. Not my proudest moment.
But I do give myself credit for spotting potential pickups in North Dakota and North Carolina back in June.
Of course at the end of the day all we needed was Colorado & New Mexico and we got both. So we're just talking about gravy on the biscuit at this point.
Sammie, that trip sounds like a great vacation!
I was also one of the people who had ruled Florida out for Obama. Not my proudest moment.
But I do give myself credit for spotting potential pickups in North Dakota and North Carolina back in June.
Of course at the end of the day all we needed was Colorado & New Mexico and we got both. So we're just talking about gravy on the biscuit at this point.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec
You're welcome, Sammie13!
I'm glad your vacation was a good one. I did New England—all six states—a couple years back. Loved it!
I'm not an expert; but I'll take a stab at some of your questions and thoughts…
Let me get Florida and Ohio out of the way. Obama, whom I'm predicting will win, would not carry either by more than 5 points. More like 3 to 5 (at best).
As for Missouri: It's a hodgepodge. But in all the characteristics you've pointed out, it is one that swings. And, not unlike with Ohio and Nevada, Mo. voters deal with whatever the hell is happening. The beginning of this decade, and for the state's governor, Mo. voters said no to John Ashcroft and yes to Mel Carnahan, days after he and his son were killed in a plane/helicopter crash, in Election 2000. They, in turn, tossed out in Election 2006 Republican senator Jim Trent—who had unseated Carnahan's widow in Election 2002—for Democratic challenger (and 2004 gubernatorial nominee) Claire McCaskill because they sided with her on embryonic stem-cell issue. And this year, Mo. is likely to switch parties in the governor's mansion by replacing Matt Blunt, who defeated McCaskill, for state attorney general Jay Nixon.
Mo. isn't The Bellwether of the Nation because it is consistently the first to step up to the plate to anoint the winner. (Some have said or written that Mo. is consistently reflective of the national zeitgeist.)
Anyway, I monitored those polls and saw [Mo.] was friendlier to Barack Obama in June (and, maybe, in July) and, thereafter, leaned John McCain…until the bailouts happened in mid- to late-September, after which it transformed into a "Toss-Up" (that will likely go for Obama). In fact, CNN broke on Oct. 1 with reporting that new polling for Mo. showed it in the process of flipping. It was…revelatory!
Mo., as it turns out for what has now been just over a century, has the numbers that are most reliable in backing the winner for one presidential election to the next.
When it comes to profiling, it's not too easy. And not always meaningful. Not all election years are the same. And it shouldn't be assumed that a same result will happen like as if it will always happen. (Funny that I'm writing this, what with my report on the three leading bellwethers.) But just to come up with a rounded number of 10, reliably Democratic states are: Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. Reliably Republican states: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming. If you wanna make it a dozen, give non-state District of Columbia to the Democrats and Kansas to the Republicans.
The Republican states above will stay red in 2008. But five others have joined those four in backing the GOP over the last ten elections: Indiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia. Of those five, only Okla. has never been considered on the Democrats'/Barack Obama's 2008 radar as a coup of a pickoff. I'm inclined to believe that Va. is not necessarily the only one that may switch alliances in Election 2008. (I'd rank Ind. second. N.D. third.)
Take Ind. as an example. Over the last 75 years it has voted Democratic only three times: 1932, 1936, and 1964. The 1932 vote for Franklin Roosevelt and 1964 one for Lyndon Johnson were unusual. With 1932, it was the Great Depression. With 1964, it was the mourning of the Nov. 22, 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy. In that election, all those Republican states in the above two paragraphs, voted for Johnson. It's the only year Alaska, first having voted in Election 1960, ever went Democratic. In other words: special circumstances! And special circumstances for Ind. And it's that way for N.D. as well (identical record to Ind., its last three Democratic votes were also in 1932, 1936, and 1944). Bottom line: it takes a hell of a lot for the likes of Ind. and N.D. to vote differently. (And, by the way, Hawaii, which also first voted in 1960, has been blue in all elections except 1972 and 1984. Why did they go for GOPs Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan's re-elections? Because 48 other states agreed on one matter: they, too, were rejecting the Democratic Party's nominations of unviable "contenders" George McGovern and Walter Mondale.)
Missouri is not of the same mold. It's more flexible than many think. So is Ohio. So is Nevada. They're bellwethers. Barometers. And, in a crazy sense, kingmakers. (They can fight amongst themselves, election after election, of who is first to recognize for which candidate to anoint.)
Coolblue, sometimes you make my head spin like Linda Blair from The Exorcist
First, I can't believe I'm saying this, but it looks like Obama stands a better chance in Florida than in Ohio despite my convictions that FL would never be within his grasp.
What is the deal with Missouri? It is an odd, bellwhether state. It's partly midwestern in mindset, but equally southern in mindset. The African Americans live almost exclusively in the big cities of Kansas City and St Louis. The large countryside is white. Is it conservative like Kansas and Oklahoma? Is it moderate like Iowa and Arkansas and Memphis, TN? Or is it liberal like Illinois? I can't make any sense of MO? What is your take? Is the state simply all of the above and each 4 years depends more on turnout?
Thanks for the kind return welcome, Snapcat and Coolblue.
You're welcome, Sammie13!
I'm glad your vacation was a good one. I did New England—all six states—a couple years back. Loved it!
I'm not an expert; but I'll take a stab at some of your questions and thoughts…
Let me get Florida and Ohio out of the way. Obama, whom I'm predicting will win, would not carry either by more than 5 points. More like 3 to 5 (at best).
As for Missouri: It's a hodgepodge. But in all the characteristics you've pointed out, it is one that swings. And, not unlike with Ohio and Nevada, Mo. voters deal with whatever the hell is happening. The beginning of this decade, and for the state's governor, Mo. voters said no to John Ashcroft and yes to Mel Carnahan, days after he and his son were killed in a plane/helicopter crash, in Election 2000. They, in turn, tossed out in Election 2006 Republican senator Jim Trent—who had unseated Carnahan's widow in Election 2002—for Democratic challenger (and 2004 gubernatorial nominee) Claire McCaskill because they sided with her on embryonic stem-cell issue. And this year, Mo. is likely to switch parties in the governor's mansion by replacing Matt Blunt, who defeated McCaskill, for state attorney general Jay Nixon.
Mo. isn't The Bellwether of the Nation because it is consistently the first to step up to the plate to anoint the winner. (Some have said or written that Mo. is consistently reflective of the national zeitgeist.)
Anyway, I monitored those polls and saw [Mo.] was friendlier to Barack Obama in June (and, maybe, in July) and, thereafter, leaned John McCain…until the bailouts happened in mid- to late-September, after which it transformed into a "Toss-Up" (that will likely go for Obama). In fact, CNN broke on Oct. 1 with reporting that new polling for Mo. showed it in the process of flipping. It was…revelatory!
Mo., as it turns out for what has now been just over a century, has the numbers that are most reliable in backing the winner for one presidential election to the next.
When it comes to profiling, it's not too easy. And not always meaningful. Not all election years are the same. And it shouldn't be assumed that a same result will happen like as if it will always happen. (Funny that I'm writing this, what with my report on the three leading bellwethers.) But just to come up with a rounded number of 10, reliably Democratic states are: Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island. Reliably Republican states: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Utah, and Wyoming. If you wanna make it a dozen, give non-state District of Columbia to the Democrats and Kansas to the Republicans.
The Republican states above will stay red in 2008. But five others have joined those four in backing the GOP over the last ten elections: Indiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Virginia. Of those five, only Okla. has never been considered on the Democrats'/Barack Obama's 2008 radar as a coup of a pickoff. I'm inclined to believe that Va. is not necessarily the only one that may switch alliances in Election 2008. (I'd rank Ind. second. N.D. third.)
Take Ind. as an example. Over the last 75 years it has voted Democratic only three times: 1932, 1936, and 1964. The 1932 vote for Franklin Roosevelt and 1964 one for Lyndon Johnson were unusual. With 1932, it was the Great Depression. With 1964, it was the mourning of the Nov. 22, 1963 assassination of President John Kennedy. In that election, all those Republican states in the above two paragraphs, voted for Johnson. It's the only year Alaska, first having voted in Election 1960, ever went Democratic. In other words: special circumstances! And special circumstances for Ind. And it's that way for N.D. as well (identical record to Ind., its last three Democratic votes were also in 1932, 1936, and 1944). Bottom line: it takes a hell of a lot for the likes of Ind. and N.D. to vote differently. (And, by the way, Hawaii, which also first voted in 1960, has been blue in all elections except 1972 and 1984. Why did they go for GOPs Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan's re-elections? Because 48 other states agreed on one matter: they, too, were rejecting the Democratic Party's nominations of unviable "contenders" George McGovern and Walter Mondale.)
Missouri is not of the same mold. It's more flexible than many think. So is Ohio. So is Nevada. They're bellwethers. Barometers. And, in a crazy sense, kingmakers. (They can fight amongst themselves, election after election, of who is first to recognize for which candidate to anoint.)
