15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, what do people think of VP nominee, Joe Biden. Rasmussen had a pre-selection poll and found:

Immediately prior to his selection, the Delaware Democrat was viewed favorably by 43% of voters nationwide, unfavorably by 38%. Other than Hillary Clinton, Biden is better known than any other names floated recently as prospective running mates. He is seen as politically liberal by 41%, moderate by 22%, and conservative by 15%. Those figures could shift in the coming weeks as voters across the nation get to know the Democrats Vice Presidential nominee.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...rably_by_43_seen_as_politically_liberal_by_41

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie is always on the ball!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More Biden polling...this time post-selection:

On the day that Barack Obama announced Joe Biden as his running mate, 39% of voters said he made the right choice. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 25% disagreed and another 35% are not sure.

Women are notably less enthusiastic than men—33% of women say Biden was the right choice while 27% disagreed. Men, by a 46% to 24% margin, said that Obama made the right choice.

Biden is now viewed favorably by 48% of voters and unfavorably by 34%. Those figures reflect a slight improvement from Thursday night polling. He earns favorable reviews from 52% of men and 45% of women.

Bang it here for the complete story:
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_...iden_the_right_choice_women_less_enthusiastic


Also, there is this little info on the very UNUSUAL gender gap regarding Biden:

And it's the reverse gender gap than you'll usually see when a Democratic candidate makes news: men like the pick better than women.

The full story here:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

The Hillocrats sentiments are clear in both polls.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Rare to have so many weekend polls, but here we go, and all but one has a westward focus.

MISSISSIPPI -- McCain +13 -- Rasmussen -- Starting in Dixie, the Magnolia State finds the MacMan holding steady from the previous poll.

COLORADO -- McCain +1 -- Quinnipiac
COLORADO -- Obama +3 -- Mason Dixon -- The Centennial State, home of the Democratic National Convention (where's Rob Lowe when you need him...a flashback to the '88 DNC in Atlanta) continues to mystify with mixed results.

ARIZONA -- McCain +7 -- Mason Dixon -- I saw the Copper State Governor, Janet Napolitano, on CNN this morning boasting about how McCain was only holding a single digit lead in his homestate with some 30% undecideds. Interesting....

NEW MEXICO -- McCain +4 -- Mason Dixon -- Not good news for Obama as The Land of Enchantment has a strong McCain showing...love thy neighbor?

NEVADA -- McCain +7 -- Mason Dixon -- Horrible news for Obama...in fact, M-D polled 6 western states Aug 13-15 and found nearly a 10 point McCain lead...they say CO appears Obama's best chance. Here are some futher numbers from the Silver State, as sometimes I like to dig in to an interesting state and find some pearls:
**Previously McCain lead in NV by +2, so a 5 point rise
**15% of Nevadans remain undecided.
**McCain lead the "favorablity" rating by a 48-43% margin
**Obama lead the "unfavorability" rating by a 37-25% margin...stunning!
**McCain did fine with some-described Republicans, but self-described Democrats only supported Obama 75% of the time here....13% even support McCain.
**Since 70% of the state population lives in Clark County/Las Vegas, we can look independently at the 2 Nevadas. Clark County supports Obama 43-42% while the rest of the state supports McCain 53-32%.
**Those saying Mitt Romney will make them more likely to vote for McCain VERSUS less likely to vote McCain was 26-13%...statistically significant in this state with a high Mormon population.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I've been wondering how many people are focused on the Olympics, and if there will be some sort of shift when they're over.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A couple of more polls to go ahead and share with you that just crossed the Pollmeister's desk.

VIRGINIA -- Obama +2 -- Public Policy Polling -- Love is fickle and since Virginia is For Lovers, it goes to figure that Old Dominion is fickle as well. Back and forth we go in Virginia.

UTAH -- McCain +39 -- Mason Dixon -- A nailbiter in the Beehive State, huh? Maybe Romney could help McCain run that number up to 99.

WYOMING -- McCain +37 -- Mason Dixon -- I'm just so excited to have a new state to report on. The Equality State (I kid you not) is so proud of that famous VP sportsman, Dick Cheney, that they are rolling out the red carpet for Johnny Mac. Wyoming demographics skew older white male. The last time the Equality State (hey, I'll probably never have another poll from here...love the irony of that nickname) had a Democrat in the House or Senate was way back in 1978...sometime in between the death of Elvis and the death of disco. 60% of the population owns a gun, ranking #1....the NRA might think about locating their world headquarters there....just a thought, property is reasonable....that's all I'm saying.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I know this thread is about state polls, but with Biden to the ticket now and the Dem Convention starting Monday, I wanted to look at the first national poll from CNN from Aug 23-24 that includes Obama/Biden vs McCain.

Obama -- 47%
McCain -- 47%

Yep, a TIE. The last CNN poll had Obama up by 7, 51-44%. What happened?

** 1/2 of Obama's decline, according to CNN's poll guru Bill Schneider, from the last month is due to angry Hillocrats.
** How bad is the erosion? 27% of Democrats are voting for John McCain.
** 38% of Dems wanted Hillary on the ticket...and they're the ones now flocking to the Maverick.
** It's not a Biden problem. 73% of Dems like Biden, and 59% of previous Hillary supporters like Biden.

To me, the slighting of Hillary does fit into the narrative of Obama being arrogant. He is so confident that those voters would eventually cave in to him without some kind of genuine outreach strategy on his part to Hillary and her supporters. I've often written if he really wanted to win, he'd choose her, but I also always added that I didn't think he had the guts to do it. And he didn't have to put her on the ticket, but he should have clearly involved her in a way that satisfied her supporters. Hell, he could've even put her on the vetting commission...perhaps that's a stretch, but he should have ran VP names by her, and then done whatever he wanted.

Time will tell, but I'm wondering if by choosing Biden, he just lost this election.

There is another thread comparing Obama to Jimmy Carter. This was very Carter-esque in that the 39th president was such a stubborn, adamant person who would never yield out of political necessity. Getting Carter to budge an inch was like trying to remove a greasy hog from a ditch in a driving rainstorm.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Let's see what the numbers look like after the convention.

Anger and disappointment is to be the expected immediate reaction after the decision was made.

I really hope the Hillocrats think through their decision very long and hard and consider the consequences of their votes .... on a Domestic scale and a Global scale ... considering what type of effect this is going to have on our Armed Forces and how many additional lives will be lost in more Wars instigated by President McCain ... before they cast those votes.

The fact of the matter is that Obama ran a clean campaign and did everything he was supposed to do. All the man simply did was went out and campaigned. He was not responsible for what happened in Florida and Michigan. Those two states deserve the biggest brunt of the anger, as none of this would have transpired if they would have simply followed the rules like everyone else. Obama had nothing to do with that. However besides that, Obama still would have won the Nomination according to estimates. This is lunacy. Why can't the Hillocrats respect the process?

But forget about screwing Obama. If they screw the Democrats out of the election this year, and they expect Hillary to win in 2012 after a stunt like that, they can forget it. And we'll be right back to Square 1. This is a dream come true for the Republicans ... and it all boils down to selfishness and irrationality.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Let's see what the numbers look like after the convention.

Anger and disappointment is to be the expected immediate reaction after the decision was made.

I really hope the Hillocrats think through their decision very long and hard and consider the consequences of their votes .... on a Domestic scale and a Global scale ... considering what type of effect this is going to have on our Armed Forces and how many additional lives will be lost in more Wars instigated by President McCain ... before they cast those votes.

The fact of the matter is that Obama ran a clean campaign and did everything he was supposed to do. All the man simply did was went out and campaigned. He was not responsible for what happened in Florida and Michigan. Those two states deserve the biggest brunt of the anger, as none of this would have transpired if they would have simply followed the rules like everyone else. Obama had nothing to do with that. However besides that, Obama still would have won the Nomination according to estimates. This is lunacy. Why can't the Hillocrats respect the process?

But forget about screwing Obama. If they screw the Democrats out of the election this year, and they expect Hillary to win in 2012 after a stunt like that, they can forget it. And we'll be right back to Square 1. This is a dream come true for the Republicans ... and it all boils down to selfishness and irrationality.

I pretty much agree. Time will likely heal some of the wounds. And post-convention should be interesting assuming Hills gives one helluva endorsement. I also agree that the process was not the fault of Obama or Hillary...those were just the rules by all those state Dem committees. And I agree that if Obama loses and the Hillocrats are to blame, then the Obamacans will do likewise to any Hills efforts in 2012.

While Obama has run a good campaign, I disagree that he has not done a good job of bridging to the Hillocrats. She gave a great speech in DC 5 days or so after the primaries ended. And she was excellent at the Unity, NH rally. But, he didn't do alot of PR efforts to appeal directly to her voters. Involve her in your VP selection process...have some TV commercials appealing to her wonderful supporters with Hills in the spots as well, creating a repeated image of the 2 of them in your home united....do a bus tour together through some of the Hills states...and, of course, he should have vetted her if she would be on anyone's 'short list'. Yes, it's ass-kissing, but then again, it's politics so it's not beneath him....it's all about perception.

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

WYOMING -- McCain +37 -- the NRA might think about locating their world headquarters there....just a thought, property is reasonable....that's all I'm saying.

Road trip through Wyoming at one point this Summer and it is one scary place...

...Laramie looks like a hate crime happened there...

...Oh wait...one did...

 

[MrWright]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

While Obama has run a good campaign, I disagree that he has not done a good job of bridging to the Hillocrats. She gave a great speech in DC 5 days or so after the primaries ended. And she was excellent at the Unity, NH rally. But, he didn't do alot of PR efforts to appeal directly to her voters. Involve her in your VP selection process...have some TV commercials appealing to her wonderful supporters with Hills in the spots as well, creating a repeated image of the 2 of them in your home united....do a bus tour together through some of the Hills states...and, of course, he should have vetted her if she would be on anyone's 'short list'. Yes, it's ass-kissing, but then again, it's politics so it's not beneath him....it's all about perception.

I don't think he's run the greatest campaign and here's why: his lack of reaching out. She lost and yet she's done more to reach over. He's the candidate and it's his duty now.

He's losing a lot of votes. He should give her a huge position and talk about it too...before the election.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I really hope the Hillocrats think through their decision very long and hard and consider the consequences of their votes .... on a Domestic scale and a Global scale ... considering what type of effect this is going to have on our Armed Forces and how many additional lives will be lost in more Wars instigated by President McCain ... before they cast those votes.

They should think about what sort of President McCain would be given his empty bluster on the Georgia issue. He talked tough -- with nothing in the drawer to back it with. Our military is overextended, yet he talks as though we can face Russia down. Russia, however, won't back down before talk; in fact, knowing it to be just talk, that reborn Empire might respond as though the bluster was a taunt.
As things stand, Bush has given them enough offense they just might invade Poland if that country actually goes through with allowing the ABM 'shield' to be deployed -- and I would not want to see McCain as president in that case (can you say "draft"?).

As for Obama, the smart thing would be to offer Hillary her choice of a cabinet position.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With so much focus on the West, and particulary Colorado, I thought this was an interesting article from the SF Chronicle. Entitled "McCain-Romney: Dems Fear It Could Hurt in the West", it looks at Romney strength in the West and what a tall assignment it is for Obama/Biden to win CO, even more so with Romeny on the ticket. Also, at issue the Mormon population:

For the general election, the West, especially the Southwest, rises in strategic significance for both candidates, and Mormons are gaining more attention given their wide dispersion across the region. Although church members are heavily concentrated in Utah, where they make up more than 70 percent of the population, according to church figures, they also top 7 percent of Nevada's population and 2 percent of Colorado's, enough to tilt a tight race.

It's a good read, so bang it here for the rest of the story:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/25/MNDR12HM1O.DTL&type=politics

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

With so much focus on the West, and particulary Colorado, I thought this was an interesting article from the SF Chronicle. Entitled "McCain-Romney: Dems Fear It Could Hurt in the West", it looks at Romney strength in the West and what a tall assignment it is for Obama/Biden to win CO, even more so with Romeny on the ticket. Also, at issue the Mormon population:



It's a good read, so bang it here for the rest of the story:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/08/25/MNDR12HM1O.DTL&type=politics

Thanks for this link. Colorado and New Mexico are on my must-watch list, and Nevada is on my second-tier list. Romney would certainly be a factor in all three states.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

B'back...YOU'RE A MORMON!!!!! Who knew? Geez, you think you know somebody...

You're definitely more in the know about Mormonism than I. The only Mormons I knew were a couple where she went strictly by the book, and the hubby must have weighed 300 lbs and used to sneak non-Mormon approved foods all the time. His eating addiction was problematic in their marriage.

At any rate, the point of the SF Chronicle link was that NV and CO, with their 7% and 2% Mormon population, could be impacted by Romney if it's a close race, which all indications point to that tightness. In the GOP primaries, Romney did gather 90% of the Mormon-identified voters in polling.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As for Obama, the smart thing would be to offer Hillary her choice of a cabinet position.

I completely agree, here. And that may have transpired, already.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

B'back...YOU'RE A MORMON!!!!! Who knew? Geez, you think you know somebody...

Well I would never call myself a mormon. And if you thought mormons would ever vote for a BLACK Democrat, I have one word for you: 1978! Until that year, TSCC did not allow blacks as members. That's right, it was not just a cult, but an officially racist, segregated, apartheid cult! There is still a very strong racist undercurrent in Mormondom. TBMs will not vote for a black Democrat, and I think that in Mormon strongholds, lots of frustrated exmos who rarely bother to vote will come out and vote for Obama with the sole purpose of scaring the Mormonazis into believing the Millenium is about to begin. TBMs are probably already increasing on their compulsory food storage LOL.

Can't wait for more polls, btw.

BB you are certainly one of the most remarkable characters I've encountered on JUB. I love Mormons! Especially gay Mormons. I lived in Planet Utah for a year and it is one of my favorite places in the world. Salt Lake City is now majority non-Mo and, as BB pointed out, it has a very progressive mayor (and ex-Mo) Rocky Anderson and is responsible for electing UT's only Democratic representative (despite state GOP redistricting).

For the record, the LDS Church has always had black members. The restriction that was lifted in 1978 was against blacks entering the priesthood and attending some Temple ceremonies.

http://www.jefflindsay.com/LDSFAQ/FQRace.shtml

According to polls, CO is all tied up between Obama and McCain. And as I mentioned earlier in the VP thread, Romney as VP could make the difference. He is immensely popular here, while McCain is not.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So, B'back, if I'm understanding you right, a person who was baptized but not a practioneer of the Mormon faith (or cult) probably would not fill out polling surveys on election days or the US census and acknowledge themselves as being Mormon. I guess what I'm wonder if that if NV, for example, says they have a 7% Mormon population, is that based off TSCC or the US census data? And the day after a primary, I assume those would be active Mormons who would answer the exit poll be declaring this as their faith. Just curious...in the SE, we don't have alot of Mormons...but, Jehovah's Witnessess....

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Romney as VP could make the difference. He is immensely popular here, while McCain is not.

Although, McCain seems equally as popular (or unpopular) as Obama since they're tied nationally and in Colorful Colorado.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Poll Time:

I'll give some quick numbers, then break down the new Quinnipiac 3-state polls. The Q is a good polling organization...large sample groups with low margin of error spreads.

NORTH CAROLINA -- McCain +3 -- Public Policy Polling -- No change in the Consistency State (er...the Tarheel State).

COLORADO -- Obama +5 -- Suffolk -- The first poll out of Suffolk Univ, so no track record to judge....as the Centennial State continues to mystify...I'm now nicknaming CO as the Land of Mystique.

FLORIDA -- McCain +3 -- Kitchens Grp -- The first poll for this group from the Sunshine State.

TEXAS --McCain +9 -- Rasmussen -- Third Lone Star State poll in a row from Ras showing a 'barely shy' of double digit lead for McCain.

MICHIGAN -- Obama +2 -- Detroit News -- Obama clings to religion and this tight lead in the Wolverine State.

OHIO -- McCain +1 -- Columbus Dispatch -- A Buckeye State nail-biter in the making.

Now, the 3 polls from Quinnipiac:

FLORIDA -- McCain +4 --
*Men -- McCain 50-41%
*Women -- TIE -- 45-45%
*White Voters -- McCain 55-35%
*Black Voters -- Obama 87-7%
*Independent Voters -- McCain 47-39%
*Q's analysis is that the Indies will decide the election in FL.

OHIO -- Obama +1 --
*Men -- McCain 50-37%
*Women -- Obama 51-37%
*White Voters -- McCain 49-38%
*Black Voters -- Obama 89-3%
*Independent Voters -- Obama 42-38%
*Q's analysis is that whoever performs best with the Gender Gap will win OH. The Ohio gender gap mirrors many of our comparable national election results.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +7 --
*Men -- McCain 47-43%
*Women -- Obama 53-37%
*White Voters -- McCain 47-43%
*Black Voters -- Obama 91-3%
*Independent Voters -- Obama 48-38%
*McCain must re-caputure some males and indies. Biden should solidfy this state, however.

So, in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, we have a tie and McCain and Obama each claim one state. Why are these 3 significant? The last president to win without carrying at least two of these states was JFK in 1960.

Most of the Q polling was done prior to the Biden decision, although there was some overlap on the last day of polling.