15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie, great work, as always!

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Texas is surprising that it isn't even in double digits for McCain. Who would have ever thought that this state would be within realm of capture? And the trend will only continue as the state moves purple with time and the youth starts getting out and voting.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just wondering -- what are the margins of error for these polls?

 

[snapcat]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Texas is surprising that it isn't even in double digits for McCain. Who would have ever thought that this state would be within realm of capture? And the trend will only continue as the state moves purple with time and the youth starts getting out and voting.

Perhaps we're seeing all of those New Orleans transplants to Houston showing up in the polling?

 

[RandomAccess]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Perhaps we're seeing all of those New Orleans transplants to Houston showing up in the polling?

Or maybe some of those "good ol' boys" are fondly remembering the days of Lyndon Johnson and John Connally? Or even Ann Richards! It'd sure be nice to Bring Texas back into the blue. They were pretty solidly among us until the late 1970's.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

What you're seeing in Texas is a demographic shift as the Mexican-American population increases. Look at what happened in Dallas County in the last election.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Or maybe some of those "good ol' boys" are fondly remembering the days of Lyndon Johnson and John Connally? Or even Ann Richards! It'd sure be nice to Bring Texas back into the blue. They were pretty solidly among us until the late 1970's.

Remember that Johnson and Conally stood strongly for the Second Amendment as written: an inherent, individual human right. The drift of the Democratic Party into novel, fanciful interpretations has cost heavily.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Just wondering -- what are the margins of error for these polls?

I'm not giving the margin of error in the thousands of polls I've listed, but since I broke down those 3 polls from Quinnipiac, I'm sure that warrants more info. Their Florida poll was +/- 3%, the PA and OH polls were both +/-2.8%. I haven't seen many polls below 3%, so that is very good.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

More polling...I didn't expect so many during convention week...

RHODE ISLAND -- Obama +21 -- Brown Univ -- Obama is riding the waves in the Ocean State.

FLORIDA -- McCain +7 -- Strategic Vision
FLORIDA -- Obama +1 -- Mason Dixon -- SV shows essentially the same results as in June. MD has the race tied, but MD usually has awfully small sample populations (this time, 625 with a 4% margin of error).

And a new batch of Time/CNN polls:

COLORADO -- McCain +1 -- It's the Land of Mystique...what else can I say?

NEVADA -- TIE -- The Silver State is a draw; however, if you place all the 3rd party candidate names on the ballot in the questionnaire, Obama leads by +5.

NEW MEXICO --Obama +14 -- This is the stunner from the Land of Enchantment...Obama also leads by a similar margin with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot. Right now, this would have to be classified as an outlier poll.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- In the Keystone State, Obama leads by +9 with the 3rd party folks on the ballots....Nader getting 7% in polls in PA.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

NEVADA -- TIE -- The Silver State is a draw; however, if you place all the 3rd party candidate names on the ballot in the questionnaire, Obama leads by +5.

NEW MEXICO --Obama +14 -- This is the stunner from the Land of Enchantment...Obama also leads by a similar margin with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot. Right now, this would have to be classified as an outlier poll.

PENNSYLVANIA -- Obama +5 -- In the Keystone State, Obama leads by +9 with the 3rd party folks on the ballots....Nader getting 7% in polls in PA.

The third-party effect is why I suggested that Obama ought to find a cabinet position for Ron Paul -- ambassador to the U.N. would be a good one. There are enough Ron Paul devotees who would love to see him in any high position that Obama would pick up a percentage point or three in a number of ordinarily red states.
Promise him a Supreme Court spot, and Obama could get all the 'Paulites'.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

It's the Land of Mystique...what else can I say?



NEW MEXICO --Obama +14 -- This is the stunner from the Land of Enchantment...Obama also leads by a similar margin with the 3rd party candidates on the ballot. Right now, this would have to be classified as an outlier poll.

Sir Sammie - Poll Meister, please stop calling CO the "Land of Mystique. How about the "Land of Uncertainty?"

Yeah that NM poll is a stunner.

I'm still awaiting an answer to the AK state name.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sir Sammie - Poll Meister, please stop calling CO the "Land of Mystique. How about the "Land of Uncertainty?"

Yeah that NM poll is a stunner.

I'm still awaiting an answer to the AK state name.

Well, since you asked so nicely..."Sir" has such a nice ring to it...that I shall no longer call CO by that name....was it Phil Collins who sang The Land of Confusion? Maybe 'Wishy-Washy Country'

B'back is right...I've called Alaska The Last Frontier on a number of polls from that state.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A few fresh state polls:

IDAHO -- McCain +23 -- Smith & Assoc -- You can put a fork in this baked potato, it's done with the MacMan's big lead in the Gem State.

CALIFORNIA -- Obama +9 -- PPI -- Obama slips 6 points in the Golden State from the previous PPI poll.

COLORADO -- Obama +3 -- Hill Research -- Yet another Uncertainty State poll...I think I would have disconnected my phone by now.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I guess these polls were taken just before the DNC? I hope CO becomes a safer state for the Dems over the next week.

With all the Dem hype machine in Denver this week, November's results will tell us if the Dems made a good impression as tourists. In '88, the DNC was in Atlanta, and Dukakis was destroyed later that year.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I guess these polls were taken just before the DNC? I hope CO becomes a safer state for the Dems over the next week.

If Colorado can be secured over the next 2 months, I will have a small boost of confidence on the outcome of the election.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, Rasmussen has all the Sarah Palin polling data available, so here we go:

**40% say she was the right choice for McCain; last week, 39% said Biden was the right choice for Obama.

**Favorability--- 53%; Unfavorability ---26%

**Is she ready to be president? --- Yes: 29%; No -- 44%

**Are your impressions of Gov Palin positive overall? Answering YES by party affilitiaton: Republicans -- 78%; Dems -- 26%; Independents -- 63%

**Among all voters: Ranking VERY Favorable -- 29%; VERY Unfavorable -- 9%

**Among McCain voters, 6% are now less likely to vote for him; 9% of Obama voters are now MORE likely to vote McCain. 3 point differential could be relevant.

**Among Independent/Unaffiliated voters: 37% are now more likely to vote McCain; 29% are now less likely to vote McCain. A +8 positive indie response to Palin could be a game changer if it holds up.

The Gender Gap is quite intriguing with these 4 questions:

**Is Palin the Right Choice for McCain (Yes/No/Uncertain):
Men -- 43/31/26 (+12)
Women -- 37/34/30 (+5)
Men like Palin more than women.

**Are you more or less likely to now vote for McCain with the additon of Palin (More/Less/Not Sure)
Men -- 38/32/27 (+6)
Women -- 33/34/29 (-1)
Again, she inspires more men to vote McCain than women.

**Is Palin Ready to be President (Yes/No/Not Sure)?
Men -- 35/41/25 (-6)
Women -- 25/48/28 (-23)
Neither gender thinks she is ready to lead our nation, but 23% more women gave the negative response.

**What is your overall impression of Gov Palin? (Positive/Negative/Uncertain):
Men -- 58/23/17 (+35)
Women -- 48/30/30 (+17)
People like her...in fact, men really like her.

So, overall, most think she is not ready to lead, but really like her. McCain must certainly be happy with her initial appeal to the GOP base and independents. Her favorability rankings exceeded Joe Biden's last week, but Biden was a known entity as she is prospering from a lack of familiarity.

The gender gap is probably the biggest headline. Perhaps, because more men are Republicans, it should not be a surprise that they give the GOP nominee more glowing reviews than women.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, Rasmussen has all the Sarah Palin polling data available, so here we go:

**40% say she was the right choice for McCain; last week, 39% said Biden was the right choice for Obama.

**Favorability--- 53%; Unfavorability ---26%

**Is she ready to be president? --- Yes: 29%; No -- 44%

**Are your impressions of Gov Palin positive overall? Answering YES by party affilitiaton: Republicans -- 78%; Dems -- 26%; Independents -- 63%

**Among all voters: Ranking VERY Favorable -- 29%; VERY Unfavorable -- 9%

**Among McCain voters, 6% are now less likely to vote for him; 9% of Obama voters are now MORE likely to vote McCain. 3 point differential could be relevant.

**Among Independent/Unaffiliated voters: 37% are now more likely to vote McCain; 29% are now less likely to vote McCain. A +8 positive indie response to Palin could be a game changer if it holds up.

The Gender Gap is quite intriguing with these 4 questions:

**Is Palin the Right Choice for McCain (Yes/No/Uncertain):
Men -- 43/31/26 (+12)
Women -- 37/34/30 (+5)
Men like Palin more than women.

**Are you more or less likely to now vote for McCain with the additon of Palin (More/Less/Not Sure)
Men -- 38/32/27 (+6)
Women -- 33/34/29 (-1)
Again, she inspires more men to vote McCain than women.

**Is Palin Ready to be President (Yes/No/Not Sure)?
Men -- 35/41/25 (-6)
Women -- 25/48/28 (-23)
Neither gender thinks she is ready to lead our nation, but 23% more women gave the negative response.

**What is your overall impression of Gov Palin? (Positive/Negative/Uncertain):
Men -- 58/23/17 (+35)
Women -- 48/30/30 (+17)
People like her...in fact, men really like her.

So, overall, most think she is not ready to lead, but really like her. McCain must certainly be happy with her initial appeal to the GOP base and independents. Her favorability rankings exceeded Joe Biden's last week, but Biden was a known entity as she is prospering from a lack of familiarity.

The gender gap is probably the biggest headline. Perhaps, because more men are Republicans, it should not be a surprise that they give the GOP nominee more glowing reviews than women.

Did Rasmussen Reports do a polling of Barack Obama choosing Joe Biden less than 48 hours after the announcement?

This is meaningless.

Thanks anyway, Sammie13!

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Did Rasmussen Reports do a polling of Barack Obama choosing Joe Biden less than 48 hours after the announcement?

Yes, they did.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Polls showed that Biden was known to about 65% of the public when he was selected. His day after selection polling had approvals less than Palin. Like Palin, Biden was viewed more favorably by men than women. Women aren't pleased with either VP choice, so it appears. But Biden showed a big generational gap...older folks liked him, younger voters did not.


In regards to whether being well known is an advantage or not is very debatable. Being a known name in state and local elections or during primaries is very beneficial...name recognition generally garners a vote to many less informed voters. However, it can also be a drag to be known because it's tough to change people's minds. Being unknown gives a candidate a much higher ceiling....for instance, in this race, most of McCain's options (Ridge, Huckabee, Romney, Lieberman) all had as many negatives as positives. With a candidate like Palin, who has no pre-set impressions, the sky is the limit (of course, it's risky because she could be a disaster or she could be a superstar).

McCain has certainly gotten plenty of media hype out of the choice. It seems like it's received far more coverage than Obama's traditonal choice in Biden. And everytime I see these liberals on TV disparage her, I just cringe because they're shooting themselves in the foot. They are making her a sympathetic figure everytime they bash this sweet beauty queen mother of 5. The Dems on TV need to chill, and stay focused on McCain.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As the state polls have momentarily stopped as we go through convention phase. It's a good time to look at where things stand electorally.

Basically, the race is too close to call. And even today, the post-DNC/post-Palin CNN National survey has Obama with a 1 point lead....I can't recall a convention that produced less bounce.

So, electorally, I have:
McCain -- 265
Obama -- 264
Undecided -- 9

Since, 270 is the magic number, I can't pick a winner. Based on the polling database, Colorado was the one state where recent polls came out a complete wash.

Among the close states:

Virginia -- McCain ahead in 4/6 most recent polls....since state is historically a GOP state and he opted against a VP from VA, I'm making this state red.

New Hampshire -- I put NH as blue, but a really close call. Obama leads in 4/5 August polls, but trend lines look bad as the last two polls were only +1.

Ohio -- Another close call, but I put Ohio as red. The four polls from August had two ties, an Obama +1 and a McCain +5 (which was the most recent and most accurate polling firm). Trend lines have been going against Obama here. Still, this is one that I could see him pulling out by November, but looks red to me at this time.

Nevada -- I made this state red. In the 4 August polls, McCain lead in two, one was a tie, and Obama lead in one. Again, trend lines going against Obama, and Palin's biggest impact would seem to be in the west.

New Mexico -- Obama leads in 4/5 polls from NM, and a few are close, others showing some seperation. Trend lines favoring Obama, so NM is blue.

Colorado -- Too close to color in, so I'm keeping it purple. 7 polls in August and McCain leads in 4, but three are by one point.

Other battleground states polling really is not that close.
McCain consistently wins in Florida and Missouri, both bellwhether states. He also leads in some Obama stretch states like NC, GA, IN, the Dakotas. Montana has looked more winnable for Obama out of the 'stretch' states...we'll see how Palin and her gun rep play out there.

Obama leads in Pennsylvania and Michigan, both pivitol states although MI is a bit closer. He also has maintained leads in IA, MN, and WI.