15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A problem with some of the analyses is here: For those predicting a Barack Obama win, they keep thinking in the Electoral College it would be so narrow a victory that Obama will be in the 270s (or 280s at best). I see the narrow victory in the U.S. popular vote. But in all honesty, not greater than 5 points. And not necessarily smaller than 2 points. This Electoral College guessing of Obama win is underestimated (and that the Illinois senator will be healthily over 300).

I don't see an electoral winner getting much more than 280, whoever should win it, and I think the popular will be less than 3% (probably 1-1.5%). I'm not too caught up with which states have to align with which other states just because it's happened that way in the past. Demographics change...the candidates change with a black, a female, and a not so conservative maverick on the tickets. Lots of new dynamics. Still, I think this will be a race fashioned more out of '00 and '04 vs. previous blowout elections.

I think it would be more decisive, that some of the key states routinely determining election winners (Ohio and Florida not splitting but agreeing) would fall in line with the winner, because of the history of some states—like leading bellwethers Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio—in adding them to a likely hold by Obama of John Kerry's 2004 states. (Again, we've never had the winner fail to carry a single state among those three top bellwethers. They're crucial pieces to stringing together an Electoral College victory.)

In that case, this could be good news for McCain. I think he wins Florida easily and Missouri easily. I lean Ohio and Nevada also to McCain, but those are among my 6 battlegrounds, so anything can happen. I think Palin is an asset to McCain in Ohio and Nevada.

I've mentioned the Florida/Georgia Democratic presidents' connection over the last 100 years (25 elections). To dismiss Fla. as a natural John McCain hold—because it's tough to envision Obama snagging it—I think is a mistake. Ga. somewhat the same (polling isn't as strong for Obama there)…yet in predicting Obama to win—oh, boy, I'm amazed people underestimate that potential. How this would translate in what states Obama would move. I keep saying it, and will say it again…if Obama wins, both Fla. and Ga. will not remain in the GOP camp. At least one of them—more likely Fla. than Ga.—would make the switch from red to blue.

True, FL will be more likely to go Dem than GA. In fact, GA ain't gonna happen for Obama. He can hang it up here...there just isn't enough white vote to sustain his election...there was some theory that GA native Bob Barr would snag some conservatives away from McCain but Sarah has those folks pumped up and they're coming home now. Florida is the ultimate moderate state. Repubs have figured that out and run lots of mods now in statewide races, while Dems still haven't caught on and find the Sunshine state is not so bright for liberals statewide. McCain, with the help of Gov Crist and all those seniors and N. FL rednecks cheering on Palin will make this a tough exercise for Obama to win. McCain is the kind of Repub who wins in FL.

I've mentioned that Virginia and Missouri being lost by a Democrat has historically added up to a Republican victory—so it would be wiser to predict not both being lost this year (if we are to see a prevailing Obama). Otherwise, if you're gonna forecast both states to remain red…predict McCain to win Election 2008

.

Missouri red for certain; VA is among my 6, but I strongly lean in to McCain for reasons stated in earlier post.

And something even I've previously failed to mention: reports over the past few months show that registered Democrats are now outnumbering Republicans in a few states—in this current 2008—by comparison to four years ago. Florida and Nevada are two that stand out. This is a reversal of fortune

And North Carolina as well. Still, for whatever reason, far more Dems will cross over party lines (esp in presidential elections) than GOP voters. Part of the answer is that state Dems can appeal specifically to the ideology of it's constituents. If FL/NV/NC Dems are more moderate or conservative, then those are the types of Dem candidates who will run for office. However, the national Dem party will trot out the liberals for President, forcing those registered Dems to pull the lever for the "R" in the biggest election of all. Having lived my life in 3 different red states, I can attest to this happening all the time.

If I were to predict McCain, the pressure is on him to hold all of George W. Bush's 2000 and/or 2004 states (yeah, that would be a case of the Maverick assured victory in New Hampshire), requiring the Arizona senator to not lose Ohio (no GOP president has won the election without it!). McCain would also secure both of Ohio's fellow bellwethers, Missouri and Nevada. Florida (and Georgia) would stay red. Virginia, too, of course. And Colorado and Montana would remain red once again.

Yeah, that's pretty much my McCain Victory scenario, too. But, it's not far-fetched. For Obama, he just needs to stir it up in one or two states, the question is that those states (my 6) are so close, that anything can still happen.

Would a McCain victory involve picking off industrial states like Michigan and Pennsylvania? Not when considering the Republicans are currently in power and both states are suffering economically. Especially my home state Mich. If McCain were to really win over the electorate—alright, both would move. Ah, but had current president Bush been a great leader, back in 2004 they would've moved (so, too, a lot of other states that have gone to the Democrats ever since Bill Clinton won them over in 1992). Mich.'s and Pa.'s voting record is nearly identical over the last ten elections (1968-2004), disagreeing only in 1976 (Mich. backed native son Gerald Ford; Pa. went with winner Jimmy Carter). The state of Washington has agreed with Mich. in all ten except 1988 (going for Michael Dukakis while Mich. backed winner George Bush). That's just three (two that are industrial). Anyone believing any of the three will move to the GOP camp? Anyone laughing at the question? (Take a look at the polls: In this tug of war over the 2008 Electoral College, in whose direction do we notice a movement of any of the battleground states?)

Michigan would be the most vulnerable I would think. My guess is that Obama wins MI, PA and WA. I noticed that McCain/Palin are off to Wisconsin tomorrow, so there still making a play for that state.

As I have pointed out before: In five previous elections—spanning 60 years' time—we had dealt with a terrible economy and/or an unpopular war. (1932: Great Depression/Prohibition. 1952: Korean War. 1968: Vietnam War. 1980: Inflation. 1992: Recession. I'm not certain whether any polling was done back then, but surely the incumbent president had low voter approval.) And in each of those elections, not once did we reward the incumbent political party with the White House for the following four years.

[/QUOTE]

Yeah, you would think folks would be looking toward change in 2008. But, Obama has struggled. I don't think he was the right candidate for this time in history. But, with so much malaise, perhaps he can still pull it out. Now, McCain/Palin have also adapted a maverick/change platform (agree with them or not), so they have somehow magically postitioned themselves as agents of changing the way things are done in DC. So, Obama/Biden no longer 100% owns the change story.

It promises to be a spirited 60 days ahead.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Yeah, you would think folks would be looking toward change in 2008. But, Obama has struggled. I don't think he was the right candidate for this time in history. But, with so much malaise, perhaps he can still pull it out. Now, McCain/Palin have also adapted a maverick/change platform (agree with them or not), so they have somehow magically postitioned themselves as agents of changing the way things are done in DC. So, Obama/Biden no longer 100% owns the change story.

It promises to be a spirited 60 days ahead.

I disagree with much of your assessment, so I'll leave it be. But in response to what you have written above.…

We now have reason to look forward to the debates. What McCain/Palin did in the Republican convention was put on a show. Their idea of a show. The same thing the GOP has been doing in previous outings—but the same approach doesn't work every time. When it comes to the McCain/Palin self-declaring change, the Obama/Biden ticket will need to discredit them. Which will happen.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I know Hillary is being sent down to Florida, I believe they said tomorrow (Friday).

I think Obama and Biden should focus on Colorado and Virginia.

If things continue as they are, all we need is one Battleground State out of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, or Nevada ... and it's Game Over for McCain. None of those states are going to be easy, but I'm sure we can get at least one of them.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the polls show the Democrats' biggest mistake this year would be to write off any state before election day. They should keep pursuing a fifty-state strategy and force McCain to spend time, money, energy and resources even in Texas and Arizona. That way they can count on picking up most of the states where Obama now has slight leads of around three points.

So they should campaign hard in Florida, Ohio and North Carolina too, even though I think he may not win them. But with IA, NM, CO, ND, VA and possibly MT and MO, who needs FL, NC or OH?

Bolded text shows where you contradict yourself.

The first sentence is true. But it chiefly applies to the logistically possible. The battlegrounds.

By the way: Along with moving-back-to-blue-from-red Iowa and New Mexico, if Obama wins this year's election, he will be winning Ohio. And Nevada. And Florida. And the majority of those (roughly a dozen) battlegrounds (which backed Bush in 2000 and 2004), including Virginia (especially if Missouri doesn't bite) as well as Colorado and Montana.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Not true. Kerry had 252 electoral votes. If Obama holds on to all of those and wins only one of the states you mention, he can only win if it's FL or OH (279 and 272), not with VA (265), CO (261), NV (257) or even with both CO and NV (266).

I think the 2000 map is a more realistic starting point. The Iowa polls and even the New Mexico polls have been pretty solid for Obama. The Gore states get you to 260. Add New Hampshire, which Kerry won and has been polling narrowly Blue since mid-June, and you're to 264. Now, any of the states mentioned above gets you there. Even NV gets you to 269 and into the Democratic-controlled House to break the tie.

He needs to win at least a few states and to do that he needs to campaign in many states. He should not repeat the mistakes of 2000 and 2004 and give up states in september which the Democrats ended up losing by less than 1%! I hope he learned his lesson in the primaries, when he gave up on IN before losing it ever so narrowly.

That's why I think sending the Clintons to campaign in Florida is a terrific idea.

 

[Backlum-Chaam]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If I could afford to take a month off work, I'd head straight to [STRIKE]Blacksonville[/STRIKE] Jacksonville FL and canvas my little heart out. It's places like FL's african-american communities where volunteers can REALLY make a difference this year.

Those 27 votes can make or break Obama, and he was in a dead heat with McCain there in July. McCain has inched ahead according to RealClear, but a targeted effort to register new voters in urban/minority communities might be enough to tip the scales in Obama's favor, considering the historic nature of this particular candidate.

I know I know, I'm playing the "race card" but if we can leverage the trends of that 90% bloc in the second-largest black population in the country (and counter black apathy by scrutinizing the hell out of any fraud or voter intimidation allegations, instead of pussyfooting around it like the Dems did in 2000 & 2004) we might be able to pull this off with a slam-dunk instead of a nail-biter.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If I could afford to take a month off work, I'd head straight to [strike]Blacksonville[/strike] Jacksonville FL and canvas my little heart out. It's places like FL's african-american communities where volunteers can REALLY make a difference this year.

Those 27 votes can make or break Obama, and he was in a dead heat with McCain there in July. McCain has inched ahead according to RealClear, but a targeted effort to register new voters in urban/minority communities might be enough to tip the scales in Obama's favor, considering the historic nature of this particular candidate.

I know I know, I'm playing the "race card" but if we can leverage the trends of that 90% bloc in the second-largest black population in the country (and counter black apathy by scrutinizing the hell out of any fraud or voter intimidation allegations, instead of pussyfooting around it like the Dems did in 2000 & 2004) we might be able to pull this off with a slam-dunk instead of a nail-biter.

B-C, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. Florida's populaton is large but it's not all that black. FL is 61% white, 20% Hispanic (most are conservative Cubans) and 15% black. Contrast that with, for example, Mississippi's 37% or Georgia's 30% or North Carolina's 22% black populations. Actually, N. FL and Jax is one of the conservative parts of the state.

B'back, I think it's fantastic that Obama is trying to compete in so many red states, but McCain is not taking the bait. If you've followed this summer's ad expenditure trail, Obama is spending $ like a sailor in a whorehouse in those red states, and in most, he's not moving the stick while McCain has spent $0 in most of Obama's 'stretch' states. If the goal is to make McCain focus on these states, he's continuing to ignore most of them (excluding the real battlegrounds like VA, CO, NM, NV). The problem is that most red states (particulary the more rural states) have very few independents, so it's more difficult to create movement in their electorate.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Not true. Kerry had 252 electoral votes. If Obama holds on to all of those and wins only one of the states you mention, he can only win if it's FL or OH (279 and 272), not with VA (265), CO (261), NV (257) or even with both CO and NV (266).

He needs to win at least a few states and to do that he needs to campaign in many states. He should not repeat the mistakes of 2000 and 2004 and give up states in september which the Democrats ended up losing by less than 1%! I hope he learned his lesson in the primaries, when he gave up on IN before losing it ever so narrowly.

Before you feel the need to jump the gun and "correct me", sir ... allow me to post my quote, one more time ... that you even quoted, yourself ...

If things continue as they are, all we need is one Battleground State out of Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, or Nevada ... and it's Game Over for McCain. None of those states are going to be easy, but I'm sure we can get at least one of them.

I am not going by the states that Kerry won in 2004, because things have obviously changed since then. Rather, I am going by current polling trends. That is why I said "if things continue, as they are."

In my scenario that I mentioned, I have awarded Obama wins in New Mexico (Obama +13) and Iowa (Obama +15) ... assuming "things continuing as they are". Both of those states, as you can see, are polling in Obama's favor by Double Digits, according to the most recent polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

I am looking at 264 Electoral Votes currently for Obama.

Therefore, that was why I said ... he needs one of the following:

Ohio (20)
Florida (27)
Virginia (13)
Colorado (9)
Nevada (5) .... with Nevada producing a tie and the decision going to the House, which would result in a victory, given the Democratic majority.

I hope that better clarifies my position, for you.

 

[opinterph]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

If I could afford to take a month off work, I'd head straight to … Jacksonville FL and canvas my little heart out. It's places like FL's african-american communities where volunteers can REALLY make a difference this year.

… if we can leverage the trends of that 90% bloc in the second-largest black population in the country … we might be able to pull this off with a slam-dunk instead of a nail-biter.

I’m not sure what you mean by the “90% bloc.” However, I am able to discern that the metropolitan area of Jacksonville is about one-third African American. [Link] As recently as 2004 Florida as a whole (by some estimates) had the second highest number of “Black” residents in the nation. I think that estimate also includes some non-African Americans. [Link] At any rate, it appears that there is a sizable concentration of African American/Black population in Florida and therefore reasonable to presume that it represents a potentially significant voting bloc.

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

As I posted in #307, I've pretty much decided this election will hinge on 6 states: CO, NM, NV, VA, OH and NH. Colorado is the ultimate swing. I've got NM and NH going Obama; and VA, OH, and NV going McCain. CO...who knows?

Sammie I'll say what you are intimating the closer we get to election day the more obvious it will become that as goes Colorado so goes the nation.

I agree with your allocation of the other swing states and Obama's getting nothing out of the south.

Colorado is an interesting state to become the center of attention as its been trending blue lately and because of its recent turning away from a 90's tax law which was the dream of republican anti-taxers.

After yrs of never raising taxes and returning all surpluses back to the taxpayers the resulting bad roads and poor schools have caught up with them.

After electing a democratic senator and governor over republican incumbents will they take that final step to blueness and vote Obama?

I'd love to see the money allocation that each campaign will spend on this state as compared to others.

 

[kneelin]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I’m not sure what you mean by the “90% bloc.” However, I am able to discern that the metropolitan area of Jacksonville is about one-third African American. [Link] As recently as 2004 Florida as a whole (by some estimates) had the second highest number of “Black” residents in the nation. I think that estimate also includes some non-African Americans. [Link] At any rate, it appears that there is a sizable concentration of African American/Black population in Florida and therefore reasonable to presume that it represents a potentially significant voting bloc.

There may be a large/growing Black population in Florida . . . but
it is still only 16% of the total population of the state and not large enough to significantly sway the election as it is in many other states

 

[Yngbldhwk]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Like many posters, I've experimented with the online interactive electoral college maps and I still see the race as essentially tied, with OH possibly being the decisive state again. Ironic, but not impossible.

I think I would have to agree that FL is not winnable for Obama. Iowa, yes. Minnesota, definitely.

But I'm more worried about my state (WI). McCain and Palin were here today in a small but decidedly republican suburb. Both of them play very well here. WI is primarily a lot of small cities and even smaller towns and rural areas. Except for the cities of Milwaukee and Madison, Obama's going to have a tough time garnering WI votes, and the suburban/rural areas could swamp out the city votes. In a close race -- and I believe this one will be as close as the last one -- losing WI would probably mean Obama loses the election.

 

[opinterph]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There may be a large/growing Black population in Florida . . . but
it is still only 16% of the total population of the state and not large enough to significantly sway the election as it is in many other states

In the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush’s margin of victory in Florida was 0.01%, or 537 votes. [Link]

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

In the 2000 presidential election, George W. Bush’s margin of victory in Florida was 0.01%, or 537 votes. [Link]

But Obama is no Al Gore...
And Biden is no Joe Lieberman...(with his Jewish voting bloc)
and McCain is no GW Bush...(a moderate state...a plus for McCain while it was a negative for Bush).

And if you add up all those conservative Cubans, McCain's geriatric pals, N. Florida evangelicals, Gov Crist' clout, and the 70% pro-drilling folks in the electorate, combined that's a huge segment of voters more than capable of offsetting the 15% black population of FL.

 

[Sammie13]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie I'll say what you are intimating the closer we get to election day the more obvious it will become that as goes Colorado so goes the nation.

I agree with your allocation of the other swing states and Obama's getting nothing out of the south.

Colorado is an interesting state to become the center of attention as its been trending blue lately and because of its recent turning away from a 90's tax law which was the dream of republican anti-taxers.

After yrs of never raising taxes and returning all surpluses back to the taxpayers the resulting bad roads and poor schools have caught up with them.

After electing a democratic senator and governor over republican incumbents will they take that final step to blueness and vote Obama?

I'd love to see the money allocation that each campaign will spend on this state as compared to others.

Yeah, N.G., I would have never guessed CO as the utlimate swing state just a year or two ago. But, I'm thinking this is the 3rd election in a row where we kinda collectively point on the day after to one state that dictated the direction of the U.S for the next four years. If it's not CO, I would rank OH as the next most likely game-breaker, and perhaps Nevada as the third odds-on favorite to hold the nation's destiny in it's palms.

 

[opinterph]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

… and the 70% pro-drilling folks in the [Florida] electorate …

Rasmussen reported about 3 weeks ago that the number favoring drilling for oil off the coast of Florida was holding steady at 57%. [Link] Gallup reported that same number in mid-June. [Link]

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I have been very impressed with the graphics on Realclearpolitics that have begun to appear on most of the state pages. It has helped me see which states are more likely to shift. For example when I look at the Wisconsin map, I see that Obama has always polled higher than McCain but that there was a huge separation that occurred after the primary season. I can see that even though Obama may have lost some ground, McCain still has even more ground to gain in order to catch up and overtake him.

I can then contrast that to the Virginia graph where the Obama and the McCain lines are intertwined and currently tied. I also notice that Obama's line fluctuates more drastically than McCain's. Virginia is thus much less predictable than Wisconsin.

Florida shows Obama's line rising during the primary period to meet McCain's line in late July and then declining. Thus there's less reason for Obama to be optimistic about Florida.

It's pretty cool. Check it out. Unfortunately the state I'm most interested in, North Dakota, has had very little polling and no graph.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Sammie I'll say what you are intimating the closer we get to election day the more obvious it will become that as goes Colorado so goes the nation.

Colorado is an interesting state to become the center of attention as its been trending blue lately and because of its recent turning away from a 90's tax law which was the dream of republican anti-taxers.

After electing a democratic senator and governor over republican incumbents will they take that final step to blueness and vote Obama?

Yeah, N.G., I would have never guessed CO as the utlimate swing state just a year or two ago.

I'm going to defer to the PollMeister about CO in the Presidential Election. I'd just like to include some polling about the 4th Congressional District in CO, where the Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave is in real trouble:

A new 4th Congressional District poll [26 August] shows Democrat Betsy Markey with a 7-point lead in the 4th Congressional District race, Roll Call is reporting. And analysis of the poll results show even worse news for incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R-Fort Morgan).

http://www.politickerco.com/jeremypelzer/2108/new-co-4-poll-has-markey-7

Naked Gent Democratic gains in CO have not been against incumbents. Sen. Ken Salazar (D) ran for an open seat, vacated by retiring Senator Ben Nighthorse-Cambell (R); he did not defeat an incumbent. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) also won election against a Republican opponent, Bob Beauprez, who was not the incumbent.

Rep. Mark Udall (D) is going to win election to the US Senate in Nov. against Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) for the Senate seat vacated by the incumbent Sen. Wayne Allard (R).

 

[naked gent]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Naked Gent Democratic gains in CO have not been against incumbents. Sen. Ken Salazar (D) ran for an open seat, vacated by retiring Senator Ben Nighthorse-Cambell (R); he did not defeat an incumbent. Gov. Bill Ritter (D) also won election against a Republican opponent, Bob Beauprez, who was not the incumbent.

I stand corrected syntax.

 

[MystikWizard]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I am chomping at the bits to see new polls out of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, although Ohio's poll was conducted on the day of McCain's acceptance speech. Once Americans begin to process the Republican Convention this week, will we get a better gauge on where each candidate stands.


Latest polls on the 5 critical Battlegrounds posted on Real Clear Politics has:


Virginia- PPP- 08/24 Obama 47 / McCain 45


Ohio-CNN/Time- 09/04 Obama 47 / McCain 45


Colorado-CNN/Time- 08/28 McCain 47 / Obama 46


Florida-Mason-Dixon- 08/28 Obama 45 / McCain 44


Nevada- CNN/Time 08/28 Obama 49 / McCain 44


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html