15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think that it will all come down to Colorado with its 9 electoral votes that could decide the election

This isn't 2000 or 2004!

Obama will win.

And one state isn't going to be The Decider. (He will have a "healthy" victory—well into the 300s.)

 

[TX-Beau]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

HEY!!! The Dubya is the Decider!!!!

Git it!

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

This isn't 2000 or 2004!

Obama will win.

And one state isn't going to be The Decider. (He will have a "healthy" victory—well into the 300s.)

We don't know anything yet. Still 4 weeks to the election. And it all depends on turnout. The conservative Republicans won that battle in the last election.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

HEY!!! The Dubya is the Decider!!!!

Git it!

That's what he wants you to believe. Cheney's really in charge.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We don't know anything yet. Still 4 weeks to the election. And it all depends on turnout. The conservative Republicans won that battle in the last election.

That's true. We've got two more debates to go. One is tomorrow night. McPalin is trying to resurrect the Ayers association. There's less than a five-point spread in eight states. (Of course, McCain would have to win all of them to win the election.) In fourteen of the states, Obama is leading with less than 50%.

It's too early and the race is too fluid to call it yet.

In the meantime, here's a new ABC/Washington Post poll:

Ohio: 51/45 Obama +6

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

We don't know anything yet. Still 4 weeks to the election. And it all depends on turnout. The conservative Republicans won that battle in the last election.

Some points that are worth considering…

• We know we're going to vote and learn of the results … on Election Day [Nov. 4]. …Yes.

• Turnout is obviously an indicator. …Yes. So is momentum and movement. The direction in which said momentum and movement is clear. (Are you under the impression people never switch their vote from one election to the next? That no partisan Republican will vote Democratic? That Swing Voters don't swing?)

• [Conservative] Republicans won the 2004 battle on turnout? …Yes. And guess what? Opposite, in 2008, is materializing and taking shape. (Watch the polls. It sounds like you don't engage in this.) When it comes to political-party registration, there is a switch of the power numbers, in battleground states like Nevada and Florida. More Democrats are registered in those states—just the opposite in '08 as compared to '04.

• And, oh, yeah—the economy has been a real drag for a considerable number of people. (And the incumbent Republican Party!)

This is not a … mystery! Fear not, hotatlboi!

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/morrismap/?promo_code=6ACE-1

This is getting trippy…

Dick Morris has his Oct. 6 Electoral College map showing Barack Obama getting stronger in the south.

I have to recount this because his site, using the same address, is updated every Monday (and can change).

Dick Morris has Barack Obama carrying all of John Kerry's 2004 states, for 252 electoral votes, a return of Iowa and New Mexico (Dem in 2000; GOP in 2004), for 264, crossing the 270 finish line and adding the following:

• Arkansas (6)
• Colorado (9)
• Florida (27)
• Kentucky (8)
• Missouri (11)
• Nevada (5)
• North Carolina (15)
• Ohio (20)
• Tennessee (11)
• Virginia (13)
• West Virginia (5)

Hey, I'm not complaining: But Ky. and Tenn. appear to be giving a 2008 Obama the 1960 Kennedy treatment. JFK lost both in 1960, but won Ark. and La. La. is in Toss Up mode. Ah, but Indiana is Strong GOP (solid red).

Yes, Morris isn't fully up to speed. But I like the "possibilites" he is seeing with Ark. and West Virginia. Plus Georgia and a pinkish South Carolina.

Morris's totals: Obama 386 | McCain 118. (Toss Ups: 34.)

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ If Morris is right, I really hope a miracle occurs and the Senate somehow goes Republican. I have no trust in any restraint at all if both houses of Congress are held by the same party as the White House.

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Some points that are worth considering…

• We know we're going to vote and learn of the results … on Election Day [Nov. 4]. …Yes.

• Turnout is obviously an indicator. …Yes. So is momentum and movement. The direction in which said momentum and movement is clear. (Are you under the impression people never switch their vote from one election to the next? That no partisan Republican will vote Democratic? That Swing Voters don't swing?)

• [Conservative] Republicans won the 2004 battle on turnout? …Yes. And guess what? Opposite, in 2008, is materializing and taking shape. (Watch the polls. It sounds like you don't engage in this.) When it comes to political-party registration, there is a switch of the power numbers, in battleground states like Nevada and Florida. More Democrats are registered in those states—just the opposite in '08 as compared to '04.

• And, oh, yeah—the economy has been a real drag for a considerable number of people. (And the incumbent Republican Party!)

This is not a … mystery! Fear not, hotatlboi!

I'm hopeful but I'm just saying anything is possible. There's been a massive shift of momentum toward Obama in the last few weeks, it's not out of the realm of possibility the momentum could change in the next few toward McCain, so I don't think anyone should proclaim victory yet. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

There's still the possibility of a shift: one of them might say something stupid in a debate, make a slip-up on the campaign trail, have something revealed. At this point, though, Obama seems to be going on facts and McCain on [STRIKE]slander[/STRIKE] hype, which is a volatile situation -- people may get suddenly tired of negative campaigning, or they may suddenly become leery of Obama because of them.
Personally, listening to McCain and Palin, I think they're digging a hole that on election day is going to swallow them up.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

hotatlboi,

I think the Bush administration (and the 2000 and 2004 elections) left you traumatized.

Understandable.

But the 2008 Electoral College will be a comfy victory for Barack Obama … and Democratic Party.

Again, I'm liking what Dick Morris is thinking. (But he's got to pink in, or Toss Up, Indiana!)

 

[hotatlboi]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

lol, I'm not really traumatized.

I do believe what you are saying (that Obama will win). I just don't think we should go around proclaiming that until it happens. Basically we shouldn't take anything for granted because it WILL depend on turnout.

 

[chatolandia]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I think the public is not responding the same way they did in 2000/2004

when the fear was about people from outside, and they were willing to believe 'stories'.


now the public has become a bit more cynical about allegations from the other party (it has worked both ways), and they are worried about something from within (the economy).

McCain's campaign was not based on that for a long time, and when he tried to jump on the wagon, it was too late for him.

And worries about the economy keep on going this time. It's not a blip in the radar, it's a storm.

The less McCain talks about it, the more vague he is about it, the worse it is for him.

But Obama only needs to point at the Republican party and blame them, and he gets the extra points.

If this pattern holds for a bit, as it looks it will, I highly doubt the Republicans will do much damage to Obama.

Unless they find something truly juicy that the Clintons missed, or Obama really screws it up at the debates... and it has to be a screw up of Palin's proportions.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I also think Bush won in 2004 like Wilson in 1916: We weren't at War long enough for people to turn against the incumbent party. In 1920, Republicans were the pickup party. In 2008, Democrats will be the pickup party.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I also think Bush won in 2004 like Wilson in 1916: We weren't at War long enough for people to turn against the incumbent party. In 1920, Republicans were the pickup party. In 2008, Democrats will be the pickup party.

I agree that Bush benefited in 2004 because war fatigue had not yet set in. However, the analogy to Wilson's re-election is flawed. The US was not at war in Nov. 1916. Wilson based his re-election campaign in part on the slogan, "He kept the US out of the War." The US did not enter the war until April 1917.

 

[syntax]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

This morning's polls are all over the place.

Colorado: Denver Post 9/29-10/1 44/44 Tie
Minnesota: Star Tribune 9/30-10/2 55/37 Obama +18
Ohio: Columbus Dispatch 9/24-10/3 49/42 Obama +7

A look at the graphs shows Colorado narrowing because Obama has been declining while McCain has held steady. Minnesota and Ohio are widening because Obama is rising while McCain is declining.

I'm relieved by the polls in MN and OH, disappointed by the Post poll in CO. However, Fox/Rasmussen has a 10/5 poll with Obama up by 6 (51-45).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html

 

[CoolBlue71]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I agree that Bush benefited in 2004 because war fatigue had not yet set in. However, the analogy to Wilson's re-election is flawed. The US was not at war in Nov. 1916. Wilson based his re-election campaign in part on the slogan, "He kept the US out of the War." The US did not enter the war until April 1917.

You're right—I got my timeline mixed up. Europe was involved sooner, of course. (Sorry.)

The 1920 election was Republican Warren G. Harding as a party pickup defeating Democrat James Cox, and doing so in much part on Woodrow Wilson's unpopularity as U.S. president during World War I. Wilson was in bad health, from a stroke, and died in 1924.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

New polls from CNN/Time:

Indiana: 46/51 McCain +5
New Hampshire: 53/45 Obama +8
North Carolina: 49/49 Tie
Ohio: 50/47 Obama +3
Wisconsin: 51/46 Obama +5

There's also a new Research 2000 poll finding a 46/46 Tie in Indiana.

This set moves New Hampshire to solid Obama at RCP.

Tonight is the second presidential debate.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Same here, I hate both parties and I'd rather have them fight over each other than control both branches of government.

Right now it's looking like the Democrats will gain about eight seats in the Senate.

 

[construct]

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

The afternoon polls are in.

Florida: Mason-Dixon 48/46 Obama +2
Minnesota: Minn. Pub. Radio 54/40 Obama +14
Nevada: Reno Gazette Journal 50/43 Obama +7
Pennsylvania: Morning Call Tracking 48/38 Obama +10
Pennsylvania: SurveyUSA 55/40 Obama +15

RCP has moved Minnesota into the solid Obama category.

At this point McCain must win Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida to win. We haven's seen a West Virginia poll in nearly two weeks. I'd love to know what's going on there in the wake of two debates and an economic meltdown.

Obama will be in Indianapolis, IN, tomorrow. Thursday he will be in Dayton, Cincinnati, and Portsmouth, OH.

McCain/Palin will be in Bethlehem, PA, and Strongsville, OH, tomorrow. They will be in Waukeesha and Mosinee, WI, Thursday. Next Monday, they will be in Virginia Beach, VA.