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15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Election

Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, more polls.

Alaska: Rasmussen 40/55 McCain +15
California: SurveyUSA 55/39 Obama +16
Colorado: InAdv/PollPosition 51/45 Obama +6
Nevada: InAdv/PollPosition 49/47 Obama +2
North Carolina: SurveyUSA 46/49 McCain +3
Ohio: PPP 49/43 Obama +6
Pennsylvania: Rasmussen 54/41 Obama +13
Wisconsin: SurveyUSA 52/42 Obama +10
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Okay, more polls.

Alaska: Rasmussen 40/55 McCain +15
California: SurveyUSA 55/39 Obama +16
Colorado: InAdv/PollPosition 51/45 Obama +6
Nevada: InAdv/PollPosition 49/47 Obama +2
North Carolina: SurveyUSA 46/49 McCain +3
Ohio: PPP 49/43 Obama +6
Pennsylvania: Rasmussen 54/41 Obama +13
Wisconsin: SurveyUSA 52/42 Obama +10

Obama +13 in Pennsylvania? me don't think so!#-o
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I hate to go out on a limb here, but it looks like Obama may be bringing in more than 300 Electoral Votes after all.

After tonight's debate performance, I am looking at:

349/189


Obama:

Ohio
Florida
Nevada
Missouri
Virginia
Colorado

McCain:

Indiana
North Carolina

Again, all Obama needs at this point is one state out of:

Virginia
Ohio
Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Missouri
North Carolina
Nevada

and he's won. Just one of those states.

McCain, on the other hand, needs every single one of those 8 states, to win.

This doesn't get much easier.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ He would actually need 2 states if Nevada is one of them. That would only give him 269.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

First, my apologies for not posting any updates these past few days. The meltdown on Wall Street has created some real challenges to local businesses here. And it appears it will get worse, so many people - including myself - are making every effort to remain profitable in this economic quagmire. I really think a lot of people are going to lose their jobs before Christmas.

Here's a new round of polling to share, my apologies if any of this is a repost. Many thanks to those of you who kept the polls coming these past few days!
(*8*)

Pollster has now moved Ohio, Florida and Colorado to the Obama column. This is huge. The only toss up states left at Pollster are Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana. Obama leads in Nevada & Virginia, McCain leads in Missouri and Indiana, and the race is tied in North Carolina.

I can hear Tim Russert calling out from the grave that this race is now over and Obama has won.

California, Survey USA 10/4-5: Obama 55%, McCain 39%.

Florida, Mason Dixon Polling and Research 10/4-5: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.

Pennsylvania, Survey USA 10/5-6: Obama 55%, McCain 40%.
Pennsylvania, Rasmussen Reports 10/6: Obama 54%, McCain 41%.

Ohio, Public Policy Polling 10/4-5: Obama 49%, McCain 43%.

North Carolina, Survey USA 10/5-6: McCain 49%, Obama 46%.

Indiana, Research 2000 9/29-10/3: McCain 46%, Obama 46%.

Minnesota, Minnesota Public Radio News Humphrey Institute Poll 10/3-10/5: Obama 54%, McCain 40%.

Wisconsin, Survey USA 10/5-6: Obama 52%, McCain 42%.

Colorado, Insider Advantage Poll Position 10/6: Obama 51%, McCain 45%.

Nevada, Research 2000 for Reno Gazette Journal 10/3-6: Obama 50%, McCain 43%.
Nevada, Insider Advantage Poll Position 10/6: Obama 49%, McCain 47%.

Alaska, Rasmussen Reports 10/6: McCain 55%, Obama 40%.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

^ He would actually need 2 states if Nevada is one of them. That would only give him 269.

No, because that would result in a Tie, which the vote would go to the House. Since there is a Democrat majority, Obama would still win.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

No, because that would result in a Tie, which the vote would go to the House. Since there is a Democrat majority, Obama would still win.

A vote in the House is not as clear-cut as a party majority may imply. “But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.” In other words, the most-populous State of California’s vote would count exactly the same as the least-populous State of Wyoming’s. It takes 26 votes for the House to choose a president.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

A vote in the House is not as clear-cut as a party majority may imply. “But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.” In other words, the most-populous State of California’s vote would count exactly the same as the least-populous State of Wyoming’s. It takes 26 votes for the House to choose a president.

Thanks for the clarification.

A majority of states have Democratic majorities in their delegations. The question then becomes how loyal would those Representatives be to their parties, or how heavily would they feel a responsibility to follow the popular vote in the state or the districts they represent. Example: McCain will almost certainly win the popular vote in Tennessee, but most of Tennessee's Representatives are Democrats. Would the Tennessee vote go to McCain or Obama? We don't know.

Still, I'm not expecting to have to find out.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

That would be a very interesting scenario, indeed. Of course I hope that doesn't actually happen - but I would pay to see the movie. :)
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

And even more polls ....

New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson 9/29-10/5: Obama 50%, McCain 37%.

Wisconsin, Rasmussen Reports 10/6: Obama 54%, McCain 44%

Oklahoma, TVPoll.com 10/4-5: McCain 66%, Obama 29%

I think we may see a slight tightening in the polling. Much of the media coverage is all but a coronation for Obama, and we all know how much the electorate doesn't like a coronation, especially Giulliani and Hillary, who were both leading a year ago.

So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see some tightening in the polling.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

So it wouldn't surprise me at all to see some tightening in the polling.

I think we will see some tightening right before the election but for the next week or two I think as long as the stock market keeps going down Obama will keep going up.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

Things will be getting tighter as undecideds commit. I think last night's debate helped Obama on that score, but for voters inclined to vote Republican, McCain looked good enough that some may go that way.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I disagree with the "Toss-Up-State" of Nevada.

It seems that "now" the pendulum is swinging toward the McCain Camp because of all the military retirees in the state who want to have a Commander-In-Chief with some military experience.

I know that the state offers only a small number of votes for President; but it could decide one way or the other who actually becomes President.......

Remember Florida? lol

I just hope we do NOT have to go through the long waiting period we did with the Bush vs Gore Election, don't you?
(*8*):kiss:
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

I disagree with the "Toss-Up-State" of Nevada.

It seems that "now" the pendulum is swinging toward the McCain Camp because of all the military retirees in the state who want to have a Commander-In-Chief with some military experience.

Based on what? Your intuition?

All the polls from that state show the advantage and momentum with Obama. The "pendulum" isn't "swinging" in McCain's direction.
 
Re: 15 States to Watch in the US Presidential Elec

RCP has moved Virginia into the "Leaning Obama" camp, which means Obama can lose all the remaining toss up states and still win. :)
 
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