On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[rareboy]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

An army convoy removing bodies from Bergamo, Italy because the town is simply overwhelmed with the dead.

This is the reality of this virus.

It was never fake. It was never over exaggerated. It was never something that people should have shrugged off. I am sure that when it was just in China, or even Iran....it probably seemed impossible to millions of people in Europe or North America that it would ever affect them, or their family, or their friends.

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/worl...town/wcm/7155c661-2ae4-43c4-90c9-0cab317c57f7

 

[NotHardUp1]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Why, for example, is the death rate in Italy ten times as high as in their neighbor Switzerland?

More like it's a difference in the cultures and commerce of the two countries.

Switzerland does have a tourist industry, but not as much as Italy by far.

Italy is also more in the crossroads, all the more with the emigres fleeing the Levant and Mideast.

Switzerland is domestically much more racially monochrome, despite having regions that mirror their neighbors.

Italy isn't known for a) hygiene, b) discipline, or c) obedience to their government. Switzerland is almost literally opposite.

It's speculative to surmise any reason for the difference in outbreaks, but I surely wouldn't assume it's medical in origin.

 

[KaraBulut]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

...An army convoy removing bodies from Bergamo, Italy because the town is simply overwhelmed with the dead.

A sad landmark to note: the number of deaths in Italy (currently 3,405 and growing) has exceeded the reported deaths in China (currently 3,249).

 

[Telstra]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Uh yes. They did. Intensively and extensively. For weeks.

You only seem to get your information from youtube videos.....there is a staggering amount of news carried by all media....but the best information is in printed sources.

Your isolation from in-depth news is a scary reminder that there are probably millions more like you who are not keeping themselves fully informed of what is happening around the globe with this pandemic.

So my links from ABC australia, and other sites doesn't count ?

 

[belamyi]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

This is definitely making better sense now: while the number of cases in Madrid continuous to grow steadily (6.777, 498 dead), those in Catalonia are finally leaping to the logical position derived from the similarity in population, density of it, and global connection; 3.270 cases: 98 seriously ill and 384 healthcare workers. Dead, so far 82.

 

[KaraBulut]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

...Italy is also more in the crossroads, all the more with the emigres fleeing the Levant and Mideast.

Switzerland is domestically much more racially monochrome, despite having regions that mirror their neighbors.

These are examples of the xenophobic bias that we have to be careful to avoid when looking for causes. In particular, as I mentioned in an earlier post, genetic uniformity in a population increases its susceptibility to disease. Immigration increases genetic diversity and that, if it has any effect (and we don't know that it does with coronaviruses), would decrease mortality in a population.

This is map showing COVID-19 cases in Italy. Notice that the concentration of cases has been in Lombardy region, in the northern areas of Italy around Milan:

Here a map with the region names in Switzerland.

Now, here's where the COVID-19 cases are in Switzerland:

In Switzerland, the case concentration has been in the Ticino region which borders Italy. Ticino has 4% of Switzerland's population but it accounts for 16% of the COVID-19 cases. The reports from Ticino are that the hospitals in Italy are so overwhelmed that they're transporting patients across the border to Ticino.

Where's the other group of cases? On the Swiss areas that border France (major city: Geneva) and Germany (major city: Zurich)

Switzerland's cases are not like the cases in the US, Australia and UK. People travel between Italy and Switzerland by car and bus. It's smaller than airplanes that hold 300 people or cruise ships that hold 3,000 people.

Switzerland got caught with their pants down when it comes to COVID-19. Their reporting has been lagging, so they probably have more cases and deaths than they've reported. They're also lagging behind Italy by about a week. The models expect that Switzerland will have 7,000 cases by next week. Deaths start in week 3-4 after exposure, so they've just begun seeing deaths in their population.

Here's what the epidemiology models predicted for Switzerland:

Mar 18 Epidemic Forecasting for Switzerland, assuming same pace at exponential growth as the last 2 days (x1.3), up to 1 week ahead:
3,076 confirmed cases by March 18
3,999 foreseen by March 20-21
5,198 foreseen by March 22-23
6,758 foreseen by March 24-25
— Antoine FLAHAULT (@FLAHAULT) March 18, 2020

 

[belamyi]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

 

[Telstra]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

^ the UK simply not testing enough people ?

 

[justaguy]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

It's surprising that lockdowns in Europe don't appear to be having any effect so far??

 

[KaraBulut]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

It's surprising that lockdowns in Europe don't appear to be having any effect so far??

Too little, too late. The citizens are already infected.

It takes about 2-3 weeks for lockdowns to show effects- because the incubation period can be as long as 14 days before people show symptoms... assuming that citizens actually follow the rules.

 

[Latimer]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

More like it's a difference in the cultures and commerce of the two countries.

Switzerland does have a tourist industry, but not as much as Italy by far.

Italy is also more in the crossroads, all the more with the emigres fleeing the Levant and Mideast.

Switzerland is domestically much more racially monochrome, despite having regions that mirror their neighbors.

Italy isn't known for a) hygiene, b) discipline, or c) obedience to their government. Switzerland is almost literally opposite.

It's speculative to surmise any reason for the difference in outbreaks, but I surely wouldn't assume it's medical in origin.

Cottage industry has been the source of a good deal of the prosperity of northern Italy, and much of it is located in the Po Valley and the flatlands of the Veneto and the Friuli, the area where the virus first struck and where most of the deaths have occurred. I've spent a fair amount of time in this area, and have friends and business associates there. The consensus I hear is that the initial outbreak came from some sort of contact with China related to these small business operations.

I would have thought that further south in Tuscany the town of Prato with a large Chinese population
working in the garment factories there would have been as greatly affected, but the city has been vigilant in monitoring the inhabitants. As of last week I believe there had been 2 deaths, one a woman over 100, the other a woman in her 90s. A brother is now living on the Tyrrhenian coast in a very small town that outside of the tourist season has little contact with the rest of the peninsula, and he tells me there has been no contagion there.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...s-coronavirus-infection-by-italians-23x86gftc

https://www.tvprato.it/2020/03/11-nuovi-contagi-da-coronavirus-a-prato-in-toscana-vicina-quota-1500/

The Italians I have contact with--at all levels, low to high--are no less disciplined than their American counterparts. I have never heard that "Italy isn't known for hygiene." I've never experienced it. I was in Italy 3 times last year and found civic and personal hygiene in the places I visited to be comparable or higher than that of where I live, Los Angeles.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Italians I have contact with--at all levels, low to high--are no less disciplined than their American counterparts. I have never heard that "Italy isn't known for hygiene." I've never experienced it. I was in Italy 3 times last year and found civic and personal hygiene in the places I visited to be comparable or higher than that of where I live, Los Angeles.

Yes, that impression is probably from dated American and British cinema. There's not a lot of modern depiction of Italian life that makes it across the Atlantic.

As for xenophobia, Karabulut is right only inasmuch as the modern redefinition of it means bias or prejudice, not fear or dislike. I certainly have no fear or dislike of either Italians or Swiss. But, I readily admit having distant impressions of both, from travelogues and cinema, so admittedly faulty.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I don't think Americans are really mentally prepared for what may come. If Italy's deaths stopped today, the correlated number in America would be over 20,000, which would be on average 400 deaths per state if the states had equal populations, which we don't.

But the average is a good place to start to try to get people to understand the level of impact it would have. Just the deaths alone would be a blow, much less those in hospital.

It will be interesting to see what the control measures actually achieve, which won't be known for many months. It puts me in mind of the polio epidemic and what could have or should have been done then.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

The Italians I have contact with--at all levels, low to high--are no less disciplined than their American counterparts.

Whereas I have nothing to say with any insight to Italians, I readily assert that Americans are NOT disciplined. We make every possible excuse for why we don't have to be, to the convincing of no one.

 

[KaraBulut]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Cottage industry has been the source of a good deal of the prosperity of northern Italy, and much of it is located in the Po Valley and the flatlands of the Veneto and the Friuli, the area where the virus first struck and where most of the deaths have occurred. I've spent a fair amount of time in this area, and have friends and business associates there. The consensus I hear is that the initial outbreak came from some sort of contact with China related to these small business operations.

Some of the earliest cases were around Vò which is where the first death (a 78 year old male) occurred.

I haven't seen any investigation into the source but in most early cases across Europe, it has been business travelers to China or one of the nearby countries. Since Milan is a major hub for business, one would expect that a business travel was also the source of the earliest infections. The Chinese government put the brakes on travel before Chinese New Year, so travel to Wuhan by Chinese nationals would have been less than in a typical year.

My guess is that the Italians are so overwhelmed with the crisis conditions that contact tracing is the last thing on their minds. I'm hampered by not being fluent in Italian (and they seem to have different regional words for the same thing?) , so I can't find the articles that I would normally find with a Google search.

Vò ended up being a epidemiological case study for successful eradication of infection. When the first death occurred, the public health officials went to Vò on 6-March and tested the residents (population 3,400 people, 3,000 were tested). They found 90 people who were infected who were put in isolation for 14 days. After 14 days, they retested and found 6 asymptomatic carriers who continued isolation. Since the isolation, there have no further cases.

The Italians I have contact with--at all levels, low to high--are no less disciplined than their American counterparts. I have never heard that "Italy isn't known for hygiene." I've never experienced it. I was in Italy 3 times last year and found civic and personal hygiene in the places I visited to be comparable or higher than that of where I live, Los Angeles.

I would agree. I haven't spent much time in that part of Italy but other than this being a more rural, agricultural area of Italy, there doesn't seem to be any reason why hygiene would be an issue in the epidemic. Unless there's something that I'm not aware of, they people of that region seem to be like most Mediterranean people in their habits.

There are things that an epidemiologist would consider: They are very social. They spent a lot of time in social gatherings. Kissing as a greeting seems to be common.

But the thing with Italy is that, because of the history of the country, it's very hard to generalize about the whole of the country versus the individual regions of the country.

 

[Telstra]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

so the culture of kissing for greeting has to change yes?

 

[justaguy]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

Is it a coincidence that the countries with citizens who are wearing facemasks are doing best on containment? China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan.

 

[sixthson]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

It will be interesting to learn the ages of the dead in Italy. We're assuming elderly. One commentator said that Italy was #2 in countries for care, love and respect for the elderly. They are generally well looked after by family, friends and country. Generations still tend to live together.

 

[KaraBulut]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

so the culture of kissing for greeting has to change yes?

And handshaking. And hugging. At least until this epidemic is under control.

Is it a coincidence that the countries with citizens who are wearing facemasks are doing best on containment? China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan.

They were wearing them before the outbreak.

With the exception of China, the changes that happened in Singapore, South Korea and other countries was because they tested massive numbers of their population and isolated people who tested positive. The population wasn't disobeying quarantine orders like Italy and the United States.

It will be interesting to learn the ages of the dead in Italy. We're assuming elderly. One commentator said that Italy was #2 in countries for care, love and respect for the elderly. They are generally well looked after by family, friends and country. Generations still tend to live together.

Distribution of Coronavirus cases in Italy as of March 18 2020, by age group

 

[Telstra]

Re: 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19)

bowing and buddhist's put two hands together is making a come back then: