On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[Chinhilla]

Re: Political Implications of the Coronavirus [SPLIT]

The Iran and Italy are becoming another wuhan china now, their governments should copy the approach of China to counter the virus.

 

[ChristianGianni]

 

[KaraBulut]

21-Mar-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 278,136 (up from 245,484 yesterday)
- Deaths: 11,561 (up from 10,031 yesterday) - 1,530 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
Cases reported in the US - 19,624 cases (up from 14,250 yesterday, 5,374 new cases), 260 deaths

Across the globe:

• Spain now has more cases than Iran and may soon be the next hot spot for new cases and deaths. Germany will exceed Iran in number of cases by tomorrow. The US will probably exceed Iran in number of cases today.
• There were 627 deaths yesterday in Italy. This is the highest number of deaths in a single day in any single country. The previous record was 150 deaths in China on 23-Feb.
• There are concerns that Japan is under-reporting their cases. Japan 127 million people but has only tested 15,000.

Coronavirus cases/deaths in major countries:

• Italy - 47,021 cases (up from 41,035 yesterday) - 4,032 deaths.
• Spain - 21,571 (up from 18,077 cases yesterday) - 1,093 deaths
• Iran - 20,610 cases (no update from 18,407 yesterday) - 1,556 deaths
• Germany - 20,142 cases (up from 13,093 cases yesterday), 70 deaths
• France - 12,632 cases (up from 9,058 cases yesterday), 450 deaths
• South Korea - 8,799 cases (from 8,565 cases) - 102 deaths
• Switzerland - 5,544 cases (up from 3,067 cases yesterday), 56 deaths
• UK - 4,014 cases (up from 2,644 cases yesterday), 178 deaths
• Netherlands - 3,003 cases (up from 2,056 cases yesterday), 107 deaths
• Canada - 1,085 cases (up from 727 yesterday), 12 deaths
• Australia - 791 cases (no reported change from 681 cases yesterday), 7 deaths

United States updates:

• The US exceeded 1,000 cases on 11-March. Yesterday at this time, it was 14,250 cases. The case count today is 19,624. New cases reported increased by 5,374 in the past 24 hours.
• The sudden increase in case count in the US does not indicate new infections. The case numbers have increased because the US has finally implemented large population testing. These Americans were infected earlier in March and we are now able to find people who have been infected and who have not been counted before we started testing.
• The US has tested about 170,000 people. About 11% of those tests have returned a positive result.
• California, Connecticut, Illinois and New York are under mandatory stay home orders - a total of 75 million people in a country of 330 million.
• New York hit a new high in number of new cases in one day (3,097) and deaths in one day (21).
• Louisiana has a developing problem. Their case count went from 380 to 537 yesterday - 157 new cases in one day.
• Florida is another state to watch. The governor has refused to close the beaches, so Spring Breakers have been on the beaches and in the bars this week. Florida also has a large number elderly retirees, so this creates the potential for a large number of cases with high mortality. Florida had 88 new cases in the past 24 hours and has 9 total deaths.
• 31 states have at least 1 death.

Individual States with high case counts (>200):

• More states are reaching the > 200 cases threshold.
  - New York - 8,377 (up from 5,298 cases yesterday), 53 deaths
  - Washington - 1,513 (up from 1,376 cases yesterday), 82 deaths
  - California - 1,077 (up from 894 cases yesterday), 24 deaths
  - New Jersey - 890 (up from 742 case yesterday), 11 deaths
  - Massachusetts - 413 (up from 328 cases yesterday), 1 death
  - Florida - 514 (up from 426 cases yesterday), 9 deaths
  - Illinois - 585 cases (up from 422 cases yesterday), 5 deaths
  - Louisiana - 537 cases (up from 380 cases yesterday), 14 deaths
  - Georgia - 420 (up fom 287 cases yesterday), 13 deaths
  - Colorado - 363 (unchanged from 183 yesterday), 4 deaths
  - Texas - 202 (up from 156 yesterday), 5 deaths

 

[KaraBulut]

Some updates from the public health researchers:

• High R[SUB]0[/SUB] - when the first Wuhan studies came out, the estimates were that COVID-19 was about as contagious as influenza. In epidemiology, this is called R[SUB]0[/SUB]- it's a number that says that "1 person with the illness will typically pass it to x people". Influenza has an R[SUB]0[/SUB] of 2 meaning every case of influenza is likely to pass along their flu to 2 other people. SARS-CoV-2 has an R[SUB]0[/SUB] higher than 2 and is much more contagious than influenza.
• Healthcare workers are at risk - from the China reports, we knew that they had thousands of healthcare workers in their 80,000+ reported cases. China also had healthcare workers who died. Italy has reported that they have over 3,000 healthcare workers who have contracted COVID-19.
• Pneumonia is common - there's been a lot of attention to the mortality risk in elderly people. New studies are showing that even the 80% of people who get the milder version of COVID-19 do develop a mild pneumonia. This means that in all age groups, as many as 40% of people who get the virus show evidence of pneumonia in the form of several days to weeks of a dry cough and fatigue but don't require hospitalization.
• Higher than typical hospitalization rates - about 15% of people who get the virus have symptoms severe enough that they will require hospitalization. This is the reason that States are putting in place "stay at home" orders. Having this many people showing up at the hospital is far more than the healthcare system can handle.
• We have a long road ahead - Governors and mayors are settling into the reality that this is going to be a long process. It could be 6-8 weeks of restrictions followed by months of monitoring.

A change in protocol: people who live in areas with a "stay at home" order will not be routinely tested for SARS-CoV-2. The only treatment for the 80% of people who develop COVID-19 but do not require hospitalization is to stay at home and rest until they are better. These 80% of people don't need to be tested- if they have symptoms, then we assume they have COVID-19. However, if their condition worsens and in particular, if they require hospitalizations, then they will be tested.

This new protocol will also help with the shortage of PPE since each SARS-CoV-2 specimen collection required that the technician collecting the specimen don a mask, gloves and gown to collect the specimen.

 

[Telstra]

^ sounds like much much more than 19,624 cases reported in the US.

 

[frankfrank]

How quickly was Italy able to deploy test kits as this war started to become contagious? I'm not at all surprised about the increase in USA cases, because only late this week did test kits become more available, and it's finding "positives" that would have tested that way a week or even two weeks ago IF the kits had been more available. So, part of the uptick is the epidemic, and part of the uptick is that more people can be tested. (I posted something like this a week ago, either here or in the bodybuilding forums, or both.)

There cannot OFFICIALLY be a case of COVID-19 until an actual test has produced a positive result, though I'm sure that when I was shopping yesterday I surely saw at least one person with the virus who hasn't been tested yet.

As of this moment, Illinois goes into virtual lockdown! I picked up a delivery of fifty disposable latex (rubber) gloves earlier this afternoon. At this point, I am in full-blown self quarantine until at least some time in April. I plan on only one trip "out" (i. e. going to any businesses) - check the mail sometime this week, and deposit what income has reached me. I actually sent a couple of packages "AHEAD" before payments received, because I want to spend minimal time in any Post Office.

I am treating this the same way I would do if it was wartime. Because, yes, it IS. This is the most threatening pandemic since the 1958 flu, or polio that was going around when I was a kid (which was a HUGE fear!).

This is going to get much worse. I am doing my best to remain calm, clinical, and stoic through all of this.

 

[justaguy]

Interestingly, there are now 49 countries with a higher per capita infection rate compared to where it all started (China). On reported numbers anyway.

 

[justaguy]

At this point, I am in full-blown self quarantine until at least some time in April.

Only way to ensure you dont get it.

 

[KaraBulut]

Interestingly, there are now 49 countries with a higher per capita infection rate compared to where it all started (China). On reported numbers anyway.

The US has moved into the #3 slot after China and Italy.

Thanks to the mass testing in New York, the NY case count is now 10,356* (up from 8,377 12 hours ago).

This puts the US up to 25,493 cases and still rising.

*One hour later, it's up to 12,260 cases. If NY were a country, it would rank #7 on the case list.

 

[Telstra]

Singapore said some countries are talking about giving up on containing the virus? ie the UK ...

 

[metta]

Re: Coronavirus. Are you buying the hype?

Why the US is behind in COVID-19 testing

https://www.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/03/20/coronavirus-testing-failures-drew-griffin-tsr-pkg-vpx.cnn

 

[m1thousand]

My mom was sick last year and I found a mask I had saved from then

A Vancouver couple was seen selling N-95 masks for $50 each. They left by the time police arrived. They would have been fined $500

 

[Telstra]

My mom was sick last year and I found a mask I had saved from then

A Vancouver couple was seen selling N-95 masks for $50 each. They left by the time police arrived. They would have been fined $500

a cloth cover would do the same job? unless its a gas mask

 

[NotHardUp1]

Funny how all that early condemnation of masks in the Orient melted away to "THERE'S NOT ENOUGH MASKS!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH MASKS!!!!"

 

[NotHardUp1]

Although the raw data is meaningful, a more accurate measure of containment would be how many cases per capita there are by country.

China's will be extraordinarily low, obviously. The US, India, Mexico, and many other large populations will unquestionably pass the numbers of most Western nations with smaller populations.

The fatalities will be a different metric, dependent upon the degree of care provided, the susceptibility of the subject population, the capacity of the medical systems, and the relative timing of the swarm versus progress in learning effective treatments or drugs. In hindsight, the data can help the world prepare for the next scourge, but it isn't necessarily going to be an apples to apples comparison of same conditions as it spreads.

Then there will be all the 3rd world deaths that we never learn about.

 

[NotHardUp1]

There is also an important aspect of aid disparity.

China is seizing the moment to be a leader in offering aid to Europe, an effective strategy to atone for the early cover up of the pandemic. At the same time, the EU is being rightfully criticized for failing to meaningfully aid Italy.

https://fortune.com/2020/03/19/china-europe-coronavirus-aid-trump/

And, at a time when the EU and the US are circling wagons and turning a cold shoulder to neighbors in need, there are private charities working to show the compassion that their value systems preach:

https://religionnews.com/2020/03/17...se-samaritans-purse-donates-a-field-hospital/

https://www.thelocal.it/20200321/co...ter-group-opens-camp-hospital-in-italys-north

And yes, the effort may be seemingly small when thousands are dying, but it's more than the governments who are doing fuck all other than sealing their borders. As much as I dislike the politics of Billy Graham's son, the credit is due and slamming him on political stands is uneven reporting if you remain silent when the ministry is saving lives literally. And Catholic Charities and UMCORE and others are working in similar efforts.

 

[belamyi]

^ Well, people never seem to think of any comparison between "apples and oranges" whenever they casually compare empires like China, India, Indonesia or the USA to states like Germany, Italy, the UK, France or Spain, dominions like Japan, Russia, Brazil or Mexico, or to territories like Canada or Australia and dependencies like Monaco, Vatican City or Luxembourg, by calling them all "countries" or "nations".

 

[KaraBulut]

22-Mar-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported: 311,988 (up from 278,136 yesterday)
- Deaths: 13,407 (up from 11,561 yesterday) - **1,846‬‬ people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
Cases reported in the US - 26,747 cases (up from 19,624 yesterday, *7,123‬ new cases), 340 deaths

Across the globe:

• When the epidemic started, both the US and South Korea reported their first case on the same day - 19-January. South Korea immediately started mass testing and isolation of infected residents. The US did not. Yesterday, South Korea reported 98 new cases; the US reported 7,123 new cases. Spain, Germany, Iran, France and the US have more cases than South Korea.
• It's not slowing down in Italy or Spain yet. Italy reported 6,557 new cases and Spain reported 7,001 new cases yesterday.
• There were 793 deaths yesterday in Italy, which exceeded their previous record 627 deaths on Friday. Spain reported 627 deaths yesterday.
• There are concerns that Japan is under-reporting their cases because of the planned July Olympics in Japan. Japan has 127 million people but has only tested 15,000.

Coronavirus cases/deaths in major countries:

• Italy - 53,578 cases (up from 47,021 yesterday) - 4,825 deaths.
• Spain - 28,572 (up from 21,571 cases yesterday) - 1,720 deaths
• Germany - 23,129 cases (up from 20,142 cases yesterday), 93 deaths
• Iran - 20,610 cases (no update from 20,610 yesterday) - 1,556 death (Iran has not updated cases in 2 days)
• France - 14,485 cases (up from 12,632 cases yesterday), 562 deaths
• South Korea - 8,897 cases (from 8,799 cases) - 104 deaths
• Switzerland - 6,652 cases (up from 5,544 cases yesterday), 80 deaths
• UK - 5,067 cases (up from 4,014 cases yesterday), 234 deaths
• Netherlands - 3,643 cases (up from 3,003 cases yesterday), 137 deaths
• Canada - 1,328 cases (up from 1,085 yesterday), 19 deaths
• Australia - 1,071 cases (up from 791 cases yesterday), 7 deaths

United States updates:

• The US exceeded 1,000 cases on 11-March. Yesterday at this time, it was 19,624 cases. The case count today is 26,747.
• New Jersey implemented a stay at home order, joining California, Connecticut, Illinois and New York.
• New York has tested 45,437 people, California has tested 23,200 people and Washington state has tested 23,343 people.
• 33 states have at least 1 death.

Individual States with high case counts (>200):

• More states are reaching the > 200 cases threshold.
  - New York - 12,260 (up from 8,377 cases yesterday), 70 deaths
  - Washington - 1,793 (up from 1,513 cases yesterday), 94 deaths
  - New Jersey - 1,327 (up from 890 case yesterday), 16 deaths
  - California - 1,200 (up from 1,077 cases yesterday), 24 deaths
  - Michigan - 787 (up from 549 cases yesterday), 5 deaths
  - Louisiana - 763 cases (up from 537 cases yesterday), 20 deaths
  - Florida - 757 (up from 514 cases yesterday), 11 deaths
  - Illinois - 753 cases (up from 585 cases yesterday), 6 deaths
  - Georgia - 555 (up fom 420 cases yesterday), 20 deaths
  - Massachusetts - 413 (up from 413 cases yesterday), 1 death
  - Pennsylvania - 371 (up from 268 cases yesterday), 2 deaths
  - Tennessee - 371 (up from 228 cases yesterday), 1 death
  - Colorado - 363 (unchanged from 363 yesterday), 5 deaths
  - Texas - 304 (up from 202 yesterday), 5 deaths
  

 

[belamyi]

 

[Telstra]

Funny how all that early condemnation of masks in the Orient melted away to "THERE'S NOT ENOUGH MASKS!!! THERE'S NOT ENOUGH MASKS!!!!"

Also at the start of this pandemic, news report said China beg western countries not to bring their citizens home yet during the Wuhan locked down,
they didn't listen and flew all their citizens home, now they paid a terrible price.