On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[funsicles]

Day 15 = FREEDOM!!! Yeah! just in time to vote in our Wisconsin special election when we're not even close to reaching our Covid-19 apex ... but the Republicans feel it to be a deterrent, thus in their favor (denying absentee ballots that weren't formally requested 9+ months ago).

 

[rareboy]

Germany, China and South Korea have begun to relax restrictions. All three are seeing cluster outbreaks of new COVID-19 cases.

South Korea has a unique problem with contact tracing one of the clusters- it is among a group of gay men.

Tracing South Korea’s latest virus outbreak shoves LGBTQ community into unwelcome spotlight [WaPo]

Well that was then.

Today, Germany is looking at new lockdowns as their numbers jump.

Prediction: Most US states will NOT lockdown when their cases surge. But at least the White House is making people wear masks in the West Wing...even if they are not setting the example.

Americans are being groomed to accept hundreds of thousands of needless deaths.

Today our reservations at our favourite Vermont spot have been cancelled for June. We have re-booked into September and if we can't make it then, we are just donating the deposits to the place we were to stay. If you have reserves anyplace that you love, please consider doing this.

And I see that today isn't looking as positive for North America as yesterday. But the under-reporting, even according to Fauci today, begins. Russia still lying about deaths per million. China not even bothering to release data any more.

Here's the thing.Here's something to watch that will calm you:

 

[KaraBulut]

Well that was then.

Today, Germany is looking at new lockdowns as their numbers jump.

And guess where the Germans are having a particular problem?

Coronavirus breaks out in third German slaughterhouse [DW]

A slaughterhouse in the western city of Bochum has identified at least 22 coronavirus infections among its employees. Over 200 employees at another abattoir nearby have tested positive for the deadly virus...

The most recent cases were detected after outbreaks at meatpacking plants in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Schleswig-Holstein prompted German authorities to carry out tests at other locations.

As of Sunday, 205 cases of coronavirus had been confirmed at a meat packing plant in the city of Coesfeld, about 70 kilometres (43 miles) north of Bochum. Nearly 950 of the company's 1200 employees have been tested...

At least 109 cases of coronavirus were previously detected at a plant in the state of Schleswig-Holstein.

 

[KaraBulut]

Much is being made of the "decrease" in cases in the US as justification for reversing some of the mitigation efforts in 47 of the 50 states.

However, it's important to note that two of the states that are still in mitigation account for a significant amount of the decrease in cases.

• In the US, new cases dropped in 14 days from 22,536 to 18,051 - a decrease of 20%.
• In those 2 weeks, NY and NJ daily cases dropped from 6,1010 to 3,112 - a decrease of 50%.
• Outside of NJ/NJ, the case counts increased in 7 days from 16,435 to 18,230. In the past couple of days, there has been a drop to 14,939- for a 2 week decrease of only 9%.

Because of the restrictions in NJ/NY, their cases have dropped from 27% of US cases down to just 17% of the total US cases.

28-Apr-2020 - Total New Cases: 22,536 , NJ/NY cases: 6,101 (27.1%) / Outside NJ/NY: 16,435 (72.9%)
05-May-2020 - Total New Cases: 22,293 , NJ/NY cases: 4,063 (18.2%) / Outside NJ/NY:18,230 (81.8%)
12-May-2020 - Total New Cases: 18,051 , NJ/NY cases: 3,112 (17.2%) / Outside NJ/NY:14,939 (82.8%)

 

[zoltanspawn]

An excellent, relatively new interview with Dr. David Katz:

Too bad it's 90 minutes long and no one will watch it.

 

[belamyi]

And guess where the Germans are having a particular problem?

Coronavirus breaks out in third German slaughterhouse [DW]

"Exploitation and misery are the true price of cheap meat at the marketplace"

 

[rareboy]

I like to keep an eye out for aggregate modelling. It can remove a lot of noise from individual projections or surveys that may be subject to regional or other subjective interpretations.

A number of models are now indicating a convergence of conclusions regarding projected deaths in the US by early June, 2020.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...FKTLkMXZnOzQC2GmrbJ3sHgAPlFrUpSDkT1iTKwjov138

Of course, it starts to get easier and easier as there are more knowns than unknowns and behavioural changes impacts the case count as the curve flattens.

110,000 deaths isn't at all out of the question given the daily death toll of about 1500 right now. with 18 days to go and the total deaths sitting at 83,425 this morning...and with still more than a million unresolved active cases...it is a sure bet that by Memorial Day.....the 100,000 mark will be reached.

 

[belamyi]

^Well, as long as the final count doesn't skyrocket past 200,000

Trump says 200,000 Americans could die from coronavirus, because he’s done “a very good job”

Otherwise, the next strategy that was pointed out a few days ago...

 

[rareboy]

It is inevitable that at some point, tracking the numbers is going to intersect with political issues. As I pointed out a few days ago...the US count may suddenly start to drop dramatically as the White House looks to reduce the numbers. We heard the rumblings of this last week. And here it is.

The CDC is apparently beginning to get pressure from the Oval Office.

The White House has pressed the CDC, in particular, to work with states to change how they count coronavirus deaths and report them back to the federal government, according to two officials with knowledge of those conversations. And Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the administration’s coronavirus task force, has urged CDC officials to exclude from coronavirus death-count reporting some of those individuals who either do not have confirmed lab results and are presumed positive or who have the virus and may not have died as a direct result of it, according to three senior administration officials.

States will be pressured to exclude all but the proven cases. Which means, that like Russia which is still nominally reporting deaths, the only way some day to get even a fuzzy picture will be to look at overall deaths for the year based on prior years for the US.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/team-..._wEgvE0EKtBlDLcYx-zFaLxXieGiOPKJ7OaH8_U1kxQlI

At the moment when the greatest transparency and truth are needed, all around the world, regimes afraid of the impact of COVID on their own hold on power will hide the numbers to make themselves look good.

It was always inevitable.

 

[KaraBulut]

13-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,291,081 (up from 4,194,326 / 2.3%) - *‬*96,755 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 293,157 (up from 286,615) - **6,542 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,370,460 cases (up from 1,347,936 / % yesterday), ‬**22,524 new cases, 23.2% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 2,141 (9.5%), outside NJ/NY - 20,383 (90.5%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 82,461 deaths, +1,777 deaths yesterday , 27.2% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 487 (28.5%), outside NJ/NY - 1,220 (71.5%)
- Testing: - 9,637,930 tests (up from 9,382,235 yesterday, +255,695 tests), 2.9% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 338,485 (up from 337,055 / +1,430)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,225,113 (up from 1,204,650 / +20,463)- 27.6% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 184,319 (up from 183,662 / +657), hospitalized 48,939
- Deaths reported in NYC - 20,237 (up from 20,056 / +181), confirmed 15,101, suspected 5,136

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,370,460 (up from 1,347,936 / 1.7%) - 82,461 deaths
• Russia - 242,271 (up from 232,243 / 4.3%) - 2,212 deaths
• UK - 230,983 (up from 227,735 / 1.4%) - 33,263 deaths
• Italy - 221,216 (up from 219,814 / 0.6%) - 30,911 deaths / 109,039 recovered
• France - 178,349 (up from 177,547 / 0.5%) - 26,994 deaths / 57,898 recovered
• Brazil - 178,214 (up from 169,594 / 5.1%) - 12,461 deaths
• India - 75,048 (up from 71,339 / 5.2%) - 2,440 deaths
• Canada - 72,419 (up from 71,264 / 1.6%) - 5,300 deaths / 34,055 recovered
• Netherlands - 43,410 (up from 43,183 / 0.5%) - 5,581 deaths / 155 recovered
• Mexico - 38,324 (up from 36,327 / 5.5%) - 3,926 deaths
• Sweden - 27,909 (up from 27,272 / 2.3%) - 3,460 deaths
• Japan - 15,968 (up from 15,847 / 0.8%) - 657 deaths / recovered

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 228,030 (up from 227,436 / 0.3%) - 26,920 deaths / 138,980 recovered
• Germany - 173,546 (up from 172,576 / 0.6%) - 7,780 deaths / 148,700 recovered
• Turkey - 141,475 (up from 139,771 / 1.2%) - 3,894 deaths / 98,889 recovered
• Iran - 112,725 (up from 109,286 / 1.8%) - 6,783 deaths / 89,428 recovered
• China - 84,021 (up from 84,011 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,242 recovered
• Belgium - 53,981 (up from 53,779 / 0.4%) - 8,843 deaths / 13,937 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,413 (up from 30,380 / 0.1%) - 1,870 deaths / 26,800 recovered
• Ireland - 23,242 (up from 23,135 / 0.5%) - 1,488 deaths / 17,110 recovered
• South Korea - 10,962 (up from 10,936 / 0.2%) - 259 deaths / 9,695 recovered
• Australia - 6,975 (up from 6,966 / 0.1%) - 98 deaths / 6,271 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,497 (unchanged from 1,497 / 0%) - 21 deaths / 1,402 recovered

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,345 (up from 6,300 / 0.7%) - 118 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,360 (up from 2,353 / 0.3%) - 131 deaths
• Manitoba - 290 (up from 289 / 0.3%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,020 (up from 1,019 / 0.1%) - 48 deaths
• Ontario - 22,158 (up from 21,817 / 1.6%) - 1,765 deaths
• Quebec - 39,325 (up from 38,480 / 2.2%) - 3,131 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 573 (up from 568 / 0.9%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[Kyanimal]

Agent Orange is doing such a great job that with about 5% of the global population, the U.S. "only" has 33%, or so, of the Covid-19 cases and deaths. Way to go Bronzed Bozo!

 

[cityboy-stl]

Wow! How ingenious is this?

Harvard and MIT researchers are developing a face mask that lights up when it detects the coronavirus [Business Insider]

In 2014, his bioengineering laboratory at MIT began developing sensors that could detect the Ebola virus when it was freeze-dried onto a piece of paper. ...
Now, they're adjusting their tool again to identify coronavirus cases.

The team is developing a face mask that produces a fluorescent signal when a person with the coronavirus breathes, coughs, or sneezes. If the technology proves successful, it could address flaws associated with other screening methods like temperature checks.

 

[rareboy]

While still rare...the inflammatory syndrome in children appears to have presented in cases across Europe and the US and Canada.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...UqBaXL2iiFiiQ69QmfUtANstHMvTUTLxFlWPW5tfzZtQ0

I have previously noted that as long as the majority of people dying are old....people will finally accept a 3%+ mortality rate.

Likewise, as long as this syndrome remains rare, most families will be untouched by it and society will accept it as a cost of the illness.

But if it becomes as virulent as polio...and threatens middle class white western families indiscriminately...expect intense pressure to get a vaccine and better compliance with risk reduction strategies.

 

[rareboy]

This seems worth sharing for anyone who may not understand what it is actually like to be on a ventilator for 3 to 4 weeks.

For those people who don't understand what it means to be on a ventilator. For starters, it's NOT an oxygen mask put over the mouth while the patient is comfortably lying down and reading magazines. Ventilation for Covid-19 is a painful intubation that goes down your throat and stays there until you live or you die. It is done under anesthesia for 2 to 3 weeks without moving, often upside down, with a tube inserted from the mouth up to the trachea and allows you to breathe to the rhythm of the lung machine. The patient can't talk or eat, or do anything naturally - the machine keeps you alive. The discomfort and pain they feel from this means medical experts have to administer sedatives and painkillers to ensure tube tolerance for as long as the machine is needed. It's like being in an artificial coma. After 20 days from this treatment, a young patient loses 40% muscle mass, and gets mouth or vocal cords trauma, as well as possible pulmonary or heart complications. It is for this reason that old or already weak people can't withstand the treatment and die. Many of us are in this boat ... so stay safe unless you want to take the chance of ending up here. This is NOT the flu.
Add a tube into your stomach, either through your nose or skin for liquid food, a sticky bag around your butt to collect the diarrhea, a foley to collect urine, an IV for fluids and meds, an A-line f to monitor your BP that is completely dependent upon finely calculated med doses, teams of nurses, CRNA’s and MA’s to reposition your limbs every two hours and lying on a mat that circulates ice cold fluid to help bring down your 104 degree temp.

 

[belamyi]

For those who cared about it the other day: the average covid seroprevalence in Spain is around 5%, with peaks of just over 14% in Madrid and neighbouring provinces, and 7.1% in the province of Barcelona (5.66 million people).

 

[belamyi]

5% of the infected by the SARS-CoV-2 drag covid symptoms for months.

- - - Updated - - -

Damn 5% for this and that...

 

[cityboy-stl]

This seems worth sharing for anyone who may not understand what it is actually like to be on a ventilator for 3 to 4 weeks.

What is the source for this?

 

[smokeshadow]

a group in Japan conducted an experiment utilizing a black light that illustrates how the virus might spread under normal circumstances. Mythbusters did something similar several years ago

 

[KaraBulut]

14-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,371,611 (up from 4,291,081 / 1.9%) - *‬*80,530 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 297,682 (up from 293,157) - **4,525 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,390,764 cases (up from 1,370,460 / 1.5% yesterday), ‬**20,304 new cases, 25.2% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 2,819 (13.9%), outside NJ/NY - 17,485 (86.1%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 84,144 deaths, +1,683 deaths yesterday , 37.2% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 376 (21.5%), outside NJ/NY - 1,369 (78.5%)
- Testing: - 9,974,831 tests (up from 9,637,930 yesterday, +336,901 tests), 3.0% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 340,661 (up from 338,485 / +2,176)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,258,907 (up from 1,225,113 / +33,794)- 27% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 185,206 (up from 184,319 / +887), hospitalized 49,307
- Deaths reported in NYC - 20,316 (up from 20,237 / +79), confirmed 15,233, suspected 5,083

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,390,764 (up from 1,370,460 / 1.5%) - 84,144 deaths / 243,430 recovered
• Russia - 252,245 (up from 242,271 / 4.1%) - 2,305 deaths
• UK - 234, 431 (up from 230,983 / 1.5%) - 33,692 deaths / 1,032 recovered
• France - 178,184 (down from 178,349 / 0%) - 27,077 deaths / 58,786 recovered
• Brazil - 190,137 (up from 178,214 / 6.7%) - 13,276 deaths
• Iran - 114,533 (up from 112,725 / 1.6%) - 6,854 deaths / 90,539 recovered
• India - 78,810 (up from 75,048 / 5.0%) - 2,564 deaths
• Canada - 73,568 (up from 72,419 / 1.6%) - 5,425 deaths / 35,177 recovered
• Netherlands - 43,680 (up from 43,410 / 0.6%) - 5,609 deaths / 157 recovered
• Mexico - 40,186 (up from 38,324 / 4.9%) - 4,220 deaths
• Sweden - 28,582 (up from 27,909 / 2.4%) - 3,529 deaths
  

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 228,691 (up from 228,030 / 0.3%) - 27,104 deaths / 140,823 recovered
• Italy - 222,104 (up from 221,216 / 0.4%) - 31,106 deaths / 112,541 recovered
• Germany - 174,098 (up from 173,546 / 0.3%) - 7,861 deaths / 150,300 recovered
• Turkey - 143,114 (up from 141,475 / 1.2%) - 3,952 deaths / 101,715 recovered
• China - 84,025 (up from 84,021 / 0%) - 4,637 deaths / 79,252 recovered
• Belgium - 54,288 (up from 53,981 / 0.6%) - 8,903 deaths / 14,111 recovered
• Switzerland - 30,463 (up from 30,413 / 0.2%) - 1,870 deaths / 19,470 recovered
• Ireland - 23,401 (up from 23,242 / 0.7%) - 1,497 deaths / 19,470 recovered
• South Korea - 10,991 (up from 10,962 / 0.3%) - 260 deaths / 9,762 recovered
• Japan - 16,049 (up from 15,968 / 0.5%) - 678 deaths / 8,920 recovered
• Australia - 6,989 (up from 6,975 / 0.2%) - 98 deaths / 6,301 recovered
• New Zealand - 1,497 (unchanged from 1,497 / 0%) - 21 deaths / 79,252 recovered

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,407 (up from 6,345 / 1.0%) - 120 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,376 (up from 2,360 / 0.7%) - 132 deaths
• Manitoba - 290 (up from 290 / 0%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 261 (unchanged from 261 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,024 (up from 1,020 / 0.4%) - 51 deaths
• Ontario - 22,516 (up from 22,158 / 1.6%) - 1,798 deaths
• Quebec - 39,940 (up from 39,325 / 1.6%) - 3,220 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 577 (up from 573 / 0.7%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[rareboy]

What is the source for this?

This was something posted by a nurse on FB...the pic originally from Spain I believe.....here is the video of intubation for mechanical ventilation. Obviously, you can't remain fully conscious and be comfortable, hence the sedatives and semi-conscious state. And of course, since you can't eat or drink...the IV and feeding tubes and the waste removal.

I was surprised to talk to someone recently who actually thought that ventilation was just having an oxygen mask over your face.

Nope.

And the reason so many elderly people are never put on ventilators with COVID is that they literally can't survive the three to four weeks and the permanent damage it can do.