On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[zoltanspawn]

The four ways the coronavirus can kill:

Covid-19, a ‘supernova in human history,’ will need multiple perspectives to understand and manage

 

[rareboy]

This sounds like rhetoric to me, not a statement of logical fact.

If we are responding to every possibility, we are in the realm of speculation, and probably fear, which are not good grounds for policy.

"Some things are possible" is a more accurate statement, and those possibilities should be considered, mostly by experts in the field.

But even the statement that "some things are possible" is next to useless without context. As I've tried to argue, just because something is possible doesn't mean it deserves our attention.

We need to understand the threat a possible thing may pose to us, before we pay it anything more than passing attention. If the threat is significant, it does deserves our consideration, and if a threat isn't, like Mis c, we can go about our lives as normal.

(My post was addressing the issue of Mis c, not mutations, unless there's evidence that Mis c is being caused by a mutation?)

I have been in the very heart of the SARS epidemic in Toronto in 2003. What I learned then, in the very cauldron of the outbreak was the need to be nimble, adaptable, pro-active and realistic.
You seem to be desperate to draw a happy face on COVID and accuse the rest of us of fearmongering.

That isn't what this is about and never has been. That is similar to the OP's original argument...that we were all making too much of this. So. At the end of this phase, are we?

It isn't about fear...it is about planning...anticipating outcomes, both good and bad. IF people had been doing this from the outset...if we had been doing more even before this...we would have been better prepared, physically, mentally and organizationally. But ever optimistic and oblivious people fucked it up again.

I have a number of family and associates throughout the medical field. They all say that they've never seen anything like COVID 19, including the way that it is attacking the vascular system in all ages. And in so many different variations that there is no one size fits all treatment. And the fact is, there is so much that is unknown as the virus is mutating that there is no way of being sure what each mutation brings. So yeah PIMS is one of those manifestations that might be tied to a mutation of the virus or just a random manifestation in children in the same way that a host of vascular problems appear throughout the populations. And the only way to find evidence is to be on the look-out for evidence.

It isn't about fearmongering...it is science.

 

[belamyi]

^ It is about waking up... but millions of people were not raised to wake up to this sort of reality.

 

[rareboy]

Meanwhile in Brazil, the strain is apparently showing in the hospital system....while Bolsonaro calls the virus protections excessive.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-lati...fa7vnFUcAmTRWqjBJqKq2jwfrgi9jRK39FHFi7u9fbVaU

 

[rareboy]

And expect a huge surge in hydroxychloroquine use as a preventive against COVID...even though it is not effective.

Either an irresponsible use of an untested and unproven drug...or an irresponsible lie designed to push sales of an untested and unproven drug that may cause cardiac problems and hallucinations.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...yRWtiZXXJyYd1gPKcUrcF5NpfTs3c3tYju75JtT_wPaiM

 

[KaraBulut]

Meanwhile in Brazil, the strain is apparently showing in the hospital system....while Bolsonaro calls the virus protections excessive.

There have been stories from Peru and Ecuador about families putting dead bodies out into the street to get them out of the house because the people are dying faster than the public health officials and funeral homes can retrieve them. That's where Brazil is headed. Once this gets into the favelas, it's going to be a repeat of the meningitis epidemic from 1971-1972, only worse.

And expect a huge surge in hydroxychloroquine use as a preventive against COVID...even though it is not effective.

There was a video last week of a reporter being harassed by the attendees at a Reopen MAGA Rally last week. One thing that caught my ear is that one of the harassers claimed that he didn't need to worry or wear a mask because he was taking hydroxychloroquine.

It's really like watching Contagion, only the real people aren't nearly as good looking as Jude Law and Kate Winslet (and there's nothing in the real life version that equates to watching Gwyneth Paltrow's autopsy).

 

[belamyi]

It's really like watching Contagion, only the real people aren't nearly as good looking as Jude Law and Kate Winslet

That's what they think of themselves, whenever they look at themselves in the mirror.

 

[zoltanspawn]

You seem to be desperate to draw a happy face on COVID and accuse the rest of us of fearmongering.

Do I seem "desperate" to put a "happy face on COVID"? Hmmmm. I assure you, my interest is, and has been, to assert a fact-based narrative about the disease. I do think that's important.

I also think there's been some fearmongering in this thread, yes. It hasn't been aimed at "the rest of us" as you put it, but at specific propositions that I find concerning.

There's too much cultural panic going around right now, and poor information being disseminated, and if we are to make the best decisions, we need to avoid panic-based policy.

Neil Ferguson, midnight-canoodler and architect of history, should serve as a compelling example of why that is critical right now.

That isn't what this is about and never has been.

Fearmongering is a part of this. Perhaps you haven't watched television, but it's easily observable that sensationalized stories are a major selling point for some media. When you repeatedly bring up statistically meaningless and un-established aspects of the disease, you are drawing attention to inconsequential and speculative fears. I will continue to challenge that.

I have a number of family and associates throughout the medical field. They all say that they've never seen anything like COVID 19, including the way that it is attacking the vascular system in all ages. And in so many different variations that there is no one size fits all treatment.

Your family and associates might do well to publish an article in a peer-reviewed journal titled "We've Never Seen Anything like COVID-19." This would help establish your argument that this 'isn't about fear', and the unique 'way that it is attacking the vascular system in all ages', 'with so many different variations' with a 'no one size fits all treatment', 'as the virus is mutating', with 'no way of being sure of what each mutation brings'...

is science.

As skepticism is such an important part of science, the peer-review process and all the important scrutiny and challenge it entails, will help establish the facts of your, your family's and associates' claim.

 

[zoltanspawn]

Professor Karol Sikora on why "Fear is More Deadly than the Virus."

^It's probably just another long video that people won't watch while reacting to the NEWS! that "CHILDREN ARE DYING!"

 

[belamyi]

I wonder whether the current situation in Russia, or maybe the in the USA, has anything to do with the sudden and complete drought of breeder sex spam inflow that I have observed in my just-for-junk hotmail account during the past few weeks.

 

[belamyi]

 

[KaraBulut]

19-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 4,834,449 (up from 4,744,216 / 1.9%) - *‬*90,233 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 319,147 (up from 315,740) - **3,407 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,509,202 cases (up from 1,486,742 / 1.5% yesterday), ‬**22,460 new cases, 24.9% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 2,986 (13.4%), outside NJ/NY - 19,229 (86.6%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 90,373 deaths, +806 deaths yesterday , 12.6 % of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 183 (22.7%), outside NJ/NY - 622 (77.3%)
- Testing: - 11,834,508 tests (up from 11,499,203 yesterday, +335,305 tests), 3.6% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 351,371 (up from 350,121 / +1,250)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,439,557 (up from 1,413,396 / +26,161)- 24.4% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 191,073 (up from 190,408 / +665), hospitalized 50,217
- Deaths reported in NYC - 20,806 (up from 20,720 / +86), confirmed 15,983, suspected 4,823

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,509,202 (up from 1,486,742 / 1.5%) - 90,373 deaths
• Russia - 299,941 (up from 290,678 / 3.2%) - 2,837 deaths
• Brazil - 257,396 (up from 241,080 / 6.8%) - 17,971 deaths
• UK - 247,709 (up from 244,995 / 1.1%) - 35,422 deaths
• France - 180,051 (up from 179,693 / 0.2%) - 28,025 deaths
• Iran - 124,603 (up from 122,492 / 1.7%) - 7,119 deaths
• India - 102,287 (up from 96,169 / 6.4%) - 3,302 deaths
• Canada - 79,411 (up from 78,332 / 1.4%) - 6,025 deaths
• Mexico - 51,633 (up from 49,219 / 4.9%) - 5,332 deaths
• Netherlands - 44,449 (up from 44,341 / 0.2%) - 5,734 deaths
• Sweden - 30,799 (up from 30,377 / 1.4%) - 3,743 deaths

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 231,606 (up from 231,606 / 0%) - 27,778 deaths
• Italy - 225,886 (up from 225,435 / 0.2%) - 32,169 deaths
• Germany - 177,289 (up from 176,551 / 0.4%) - 8,081 deaths
• Turkey - 150,593 (up from 149,435 / 0.8%) - 4,199 deaths
• China - 84,063 (up from 84,054 / 0%) - 4,638 deaths
• Belgium - 55,791 (up from 55,559 / 0.4%) - 9,108 deaths
• Switzerland - 30,618 (up from 30,597 / 0.1%) - 1,668 deaths
• Ireland - 24,200 (up from 24,112 / 0.4%) - 1,547 deaths
• South Korea - 11,078 (up from 11,065 / 0.1%) - 263 deaths
• Japan - 16,305 (up from 16,285 / 0.1%) - 749 deaths
• Australia - 7,068 (up from 7,060 / 0.1%) - 100 deaths
• New Zealand - 1,503 (unchanged from 1,499 / 0.3%) - 21 deaths

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,683 (up from 6,644 / 0.6%) - 128 deaths
• British Columbia - 2,444 (up from 2,428 / 0.7%) - 143 deaths
• Manitoba - 290 (up from 289 / 0.3%) - 7 deaths
• New Brunswick - 120 (unchanged from 120 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 260 (unchanged from 260 / 0%) - 3 deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,043 (up from 1,040 / 0.3%) - 55 deaths
• Ontario - 24,286 (up from 23,974 / 1.3%) - 1,904 deaths
• Quebec - 43,636 (up from 42,928 / 1.6%) - 3,596 deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 592 (unchanged from 592 / 0%) - 6 deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[rareboy]

A friend of mine in the US thinks that there will be a concerted effort to keep the death figure reported below 100K by Memorial Day in the US, because of the optics and associations that will be made.

But really. It is over 92,000 this morning from the latest data.

Will it matter if it is 100,005 or 98,087? Will this really make such a psychological difference?

Also, he is one of those who believes that after 100K dead, that no one will even pay much attention to the next 100K...that this kind of number represents one of those tipping point casualty stats that signify capitulation to the dull reality of mass deaths, whether in wars or diseases.

 

[rareboy]

And 108 million locked down in China as second wave hits.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...au2kL_KX4nCqiukmUurSUEX33_Cz-aB2fgHN0o1BETrfE

If China is sharing this with the world...shit must be bad.

 

[KaraBulut]

And 108 million locked down in China as second wave hits.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...au2kL_KX4nCqiukmUurSUEX33_Cz-aB2fgHN0o1BETrfE

If China is sharing this with the world...shit must be bad.

There might be a delay in reporting but China is reporting fewer new confirmed cases this week than they reported last week.

The fact that they went through this much effort for this long, only to see cases increase after relaxing some of their restrictions doesn't bode well for the rest of the world.

 

[zoltanspawn]

A bunch of recent reports on what the Infection Fatality Rate has been:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v1

Outside of the hardest-hit areas, seems obvious now:

Estimates of infection fatality rates inferred from seroprevalence studies tend to be much lower than original speculations made in the early days of the pandemic.

Teaser: scary photos =/= science.

 

[zoltanspawn]

And 108 million locked down in China as second wave hits.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...au2kL_KX4nCqiukmUurSUEX33_Cz-aB2fgHN0o1BETrfE

One of my takeaways from this article is that I'm glad I don't live in an authoritarian country that has such an efficient ability to quarantine, as the article title blares, 108 MILLION people.

Another is that, as we ease restrictions and there are the inevitable setbacks, we introduce appropriate mitigation responses; while I don't happen to like China's, they're doing what is appropriate for their country.

Unless people are advocates for endless, ubiquitous lockdown, of which I'm aware there are many, an intermittent, targeted strategy is the only way forward.

 

[belamyi]

One of my takeaways from this article is that I'm glad I don't live in an authoritarian country that has such an efficient ability to quarantine, as the article title blares, 108 MILLION people.

Another is that, as we ease restrictions and there are the inevitable setbacks, we introduce appropriate mitigation responses; while I don't happen to like China's, they're doing what is appropriate for their country.

Unless people are advocates for endless, ubiquitous lockdown, of which I'm aware there are many, an intermittent, targeted strategy is the only way forward.

You mean you are glad you live in such a small country that you will not see the equivalent of one third of the whole population of your country quarantined by a government responsible for over ten times that population size, but you may be proud enough to live in an authoritarian country that has such an efficient ability to impose overcharging and unnecessary consumerist expenses on its population, through the action of different lobbying interests and unavoidable mutual social dependences, which allow you to reach two thirds of the amount of wealth that the inhabitants of some socialist Northern European countries acquire through two thirds of the amount of time you devote to "work" in your country.

 

[KaraBulut]

A bunch of recent reports on what the Infection Fatality Rate has been:

Paper is from a single author and contains the following disclaimer:

This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

One very disturbing thing that is going on at the moment is that we have quite a few faulty tests out on the market- both tests that look for antigen and for antibody- that we're finding are producing error rates as high as 25% in a combination of false positives and false negatives.

This author claims to have done a review of other papers. He didn't review the actual patient data. That's unlikely to produce a valid result and the fact that he has no co-authors on his paper is a big red flag.

 

[zoltanspawn]

Paper is from a single author and contains the following disclaimer:

So, we're accepting news articles highlighting scary photos from data-vacuums like China as a reasonable basis for opinion but not from journal preprints? Hmmmm.

That "single author" is somebody whose credentials are about as good as they get in the business.

I've linked to his expertise before:

From 1998 to 2010, he was chairman of the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine. In 2002 he became an adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.[5][3] He has also been President of the Society for Research Synthesis Methodology.[3] He is highly-cited, having an h-index of 196 on Google Scholar in 2020.[6]

Ioannidis is now Professor of Medicine, Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor, by courtesy, of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences.[7][8] He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director, along with Steven N. Goodman, of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).[9][10]

He was the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation from 2010 to 2019.[11]

Oh fuck it, everybody just look at this again: