On Topic Discussion 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2)

[ruggerladirish]

For the first time since March, no new COVID-related deaths reported here, and 59 new cases. Many public announcements from Government thanking the people for adhering to severe travel restrictions, for respecting social distancing, coughing/sneezing etiquette and enhanced hand-washing techniques.

 

[belamyi]

I have no idea where to put this article. Is it here? In politics? The afraid thread? A new thread altogether?

Unicef warns lockdown could kill more than Covid-19 as model predicts 1.2 million child deaths
'Indiscriminate lockdowns' are an ineffective way to control Covid and could contribute to a 45 per cent rise in child mortality

I hope it remains here, as it directly concerns the issue of child mortality as a consequence of SARS2.

One knew it before clinking on the links: the articles refer to a totally different context, in so-called Third World countries in which children already live surrounded by microbial and viral grim reapers at whatever they have for homes.

It is so refreshing that people in the Western world start caring so much for the well-being of destitute children... because you meant them, did you, not American children.

 

[KaraBulut]

^ Actually, Spain has reported a validation problem, with discrepancies between the date of death and the date of notification of the deaths, so that now the official estimation is almost two thousand deaths lower, 26.834.

Thanks for pointing that out. The JHI database hasn't been updated to reflect the change yet and they may have held the update for day pending verification from Spain's Health Ministry since a negative death number is a rarity in the pandemic. These are the numbers as Spain reports them:

19-May-2020 27,888 (+0.4%)
20-May-2020 27,940 (+0.19%)
21-May-2020 28,628 (+2.5%)
22-May-2020 28,678 (+0.17%)
23-May-2020 28,752 (+0.26%)
24-May-2020 26,834 (-6.7%)

For the first time since March, no new COVID-related deaths reported here, and 59 new cases. Many public announcements from Government thanking the people for adhering to severe travel restrictions, for respecting social distancing, coughing/sneezing etiquette and enhanced hand-washing techniques.

Ireland is to be commended for their response. I had worried that their might be some case transfer from the UK into Ireland but with a few exceptions, Ireland has maintained a flat or downward trajectory for the past 2 weeks- 7 of the last 9 days have reported <100 new cases.

Meanwhile in the US:

 

[cityboy-stl]

Stupid idiots. Now I have to deal with this. Morons.

Viral Lake of the Ozarks photos prompt St. Louis County to issue travel advisory [ksdk.com]

 

[KaraBulut]

26-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 5,522,931 (up from 5,439,559 / %) - *‬*83,372 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 346,873 (up from 345,467) - **1,406 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,663,221 cases (up from 1,646,495 / 1.0% yesterday), ‬**16,726 new cases, 20.1% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 2,187 (11.7%), outside NJ/NY - 16,438 (88.3%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 98,228 deaths, +288 deaths yesterday , 20.4% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 97 (19.4%), outside NJ/NY - 402 (80.6%)
- Testing: - 14,604,942 tests (up from 14,163,915 yesterday, +441,027 tests), 4.4% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 362,764 (up from 361,515 / +1,249 / 0.3%)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,739,449 (up from 1,699,826 / +39,623)- 20.9% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 196,098 (up from 195,452 / +646), hospitalized 51197 (+19)
- Deaths reported in NYC - 21,259 (up from 21,216 / +43), confirmed 16,482, suspected 4,777

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,662,768 (up from 1,663,221 / +16,273 / 1.0%) - 98,228 deaths (+288)
• Brazil - 374,898 (up from 374,898 / +11,687 / 3.2%) - 23,473 deaths (+807)
• Russia - 362,342 (up from 362,342 / +8,915 / 2.5%) - 3,807 deaths (+174)
• UK - 262,547 (up from 262,547 / +6 / 0.0%) - 36,996 deaths (+0)
• France - 183,067 (up from 183,067 / +358 / 0.2%) - 28,460 deaths (+90)
• India - 146,498 (up from 146,498 / +5,270 / 3.7%) - 4,188 deaths (+131)
• Iran - 139,511 (up from 139,511 / +1,787 / 1.3%) - 7,508 deaths (+57)
• Canada - 87,122 (up from 87,122 / +1,016 / 1.2%) - 6,655 deaths (+121)
• Mexico - 71,105 (up from 71,105 / +2,485 / 3.6%) - 7,633 deaths (+239)
• Netherlands - 45,780 (up from 45,780 / +134 / 0.3%) - 5,875 deaths (+26)
• Sweden - 34,440 (up from 34,440 / +597 / 1.8%) - 4,125 deaths (+96)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Italy - 230,158 (up from 230,158 / +0 / 0.0%) - 32,877 deaths (+0)
• Spain - 235,400 (up from 235,400 / +(372) / -0.2%) - 26,834 deaths (-1,918)
• Germany - 180,802 (up from 180,802 / +382 / 0.2%) - 8,329 deaths (+29)
• Turkey - 157,814 (up from 157,814 / +987 / 0.6%) - 4,369 deaths (+29)
• China - 84,102 (up from 84,102 / +7 / 0.0%) - 4,638 deaths (+0)
• Belgium - 57,455 (up from 57,455 / +113 / 0.2%) - 9,334 deaths (+22)
• Switzerland - 30,761 (up from 30,761 / +15 / 0.0%) - 1,915 deaths (+2)
• Ireland - 24,698 (up from 24,698 / +0 / 0.0%) - 1,606 deaths (-2)
• Japan - 16,581 (up from 16,581 / +31 / 0.2%) - 830 deaths (+10)
• South Korea - 11,225 (up from 11,225 / +19 / 0.2%) - 269 deaths (+2)
• Australia - 7,133 (up from 7,133 / +15 / 0.2%) - 102 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand - 1,504 (up from 1,504 / +0 / 0.0%) - 21 deaths (+0)

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,879 (up from 6,860 / +19 / 0.6%) - 138 (+3) deaths
• British Columbia - 2,530 (up from 2,517 / +13 / 0.5%) - 161 (+4) deaths
• Manitoba - 292 (unchanged from 292 / +0 / 0%) - 7 (+0) deaths
• New Brunswick - 121 (unchanged from 121 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 260 (unchanged from 260 / +0 / 0%) - 3 (+0) deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,051 (up from 1,050 / +1 / 0.1%) - 58 (+0) deaths
• Ontario - 27,305 (up from 26,897 / +408 / 1.5%) - 2,102 (+0) deaths
• Quebec - 47,993 (up from 47,420 / +573 / 1.2%) - 4,069 (+85) deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 634 (up from 632 / +2 / 0.3%) - 7 (+0) deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[KaraBulut]

Not good news. Because the SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests have a 95% specificity and no confirmation second test, they are more likely to yield a false positive. The estimate is that the antibody test might be inaccurate in up to one-half of the tests performed.

Trump suspended the normal FDA approval process that ensures that lab tests are accurate. This allowed labs to develop their own coronavirus antibody tests without ensure that those tests dependably test for the coronavirus antibodies.

Antibody tests for Covid-19 wrong half the time, CDC says [CNN]

Antibody tests used to determine if people have been infected in the past with Covid-19 might be wrong up to half the time, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in new guidance posted on its website.

Antibody tests, often called serologic tests, look for evidence of an immune response to infection. "Antibodies in some persons can be detected within the first week of illness onset," the CDC says.

They are not accurate enough to use to make important policy decisions, the CDC said.

"Serologic test results should not be used to make decisions about grouping persons residing in or being admitted to congregate settings, such as schools, dormitories, or correctional facilities," the CDC says.

 

[cityboy-stl]

^ Good grief. A test that is only accurate half the time is no better than flipping a coin. Why even bother?

 

[KaraBulut]

^ Good grief. A test that is only accurate half the time is no better than flipping a coin. Why even bother?

An antibody test will be needed since it is the only means to determine if someone has had COVID-19 in the past because once the infection has cleared, the antigen tests will be negative. It also makes it difficult to determine how many people in the population have some degree of immunity to the virus.

The structure of the virus has been available since January and it's a little puzzling that it's almost June and we still don't have a reliable, FDA-approved antibody test available in the US.

 

[rareboy]

Sweden's herd immunity approach may not be working as well as they had hoped.

https://www.sfgate.com/science/arti...DufUNgM9AzAupz2CzrAkJzwx1wnmaJLRGguRCEf7JCg0E

The population is not showing a significantly higher rate of immunity than other countries, but their deaths per million continues to outpace their neighbours and even the US.

 

[belamyi]

^ The UK had it bad enough back in March, when they first took that approach... for a few days.


The silliest part is the economic justification, when your economy in a global world can get only as good as the rest of the economies can be.

 

[KaraBulut]

The silliest part is the economic justification, when your economy in a global world can get only as good as the rest of the economies can be.

In the US, there's also another thing going on with the economic justification: excusing the increased case counts as being "because we're running more tests".

The tests that are showing more cases are antigen test which are only positive when someone has an active infection. New cases are a snapshot in time of who has an active infection.

If R[sub]0[/sub] > 1, it doesn't matter whether you're testing 100 people or 100,000 people, if you have people in the population who have active infections, they're spreading the virus to other people. We can also see from the increasing hospitalization numbers in around 20 of the States, the virus has become endemic in the population because little is being done to contain outbreaks and contact trace those who are infected.

By allowing people to congregate in public places and begin working, they're ensuring that we continue to have more and more infections. What we're hearing from the White House is that it doesn't matter how many people are infected or how many people continue to die, they're not going to take action to stop continued infections.

 

[KaraBulut]

27-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 5,618,829 (up from 5,522,931 / 1.7%) - *‬*95,898 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 351,146 (up from 346,873) - **4,273 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,681,418 cases (up from 1,663,221 / 1.1% yesterday), ‬**18,197 new cases, 19.0% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,744 (9.4%), outside NJ/NY - 16,906 (90.6%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 98,933 deaths, +705 deaths yesterday , 16.5% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 120 (17.0%, outside NJ/NY - 586 (83.0%)
- Testing: - 14,907,041 tests (up from 14,604,942 yesterday, +302,099 tests), 4.5% of the US population has been tested

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 363,836 (up from 362,764 / +1,072 / 0.3%)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,774,128 (up from 1,739,449 / +34,679)- 20.5% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 196,623 (up from 196,098 / +525), hospitalized 51,287 (+90)
- Deaths reported in NYC - 21,314 (up from 21,259 / +55), confirmed 16,565, suspected 4,749

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US - 1,681,418 (up from 1,662,768 / +18,197 / 1.1%) - 98,933 deaths (+705)
• Brazil - 391,222 (up from 374,898 / +16,324 / 4.4%) - 24,512 deaths (+1,039)
• Russia - 370,680 (up from 362,342 / +8,338 / 2.3%) - 3,968 deaths (+161)
• UK - 266,602 (up from 262,547 / +4,055 / 1.5%) - 37,130 deaths (+134)
• France - 182,847 (down from 183,067 / -220 / -0.1%) - 28,533 deaths (+73)
• India - 153,247 (up from 146,498 / +6,749 / 4.6%) - 4,367 deaths (+179)
• Iran - 141,591 (up from 139,511 / +2,080 / 1.5%) - 7,564 deaths (+56)
• Canada - 88,093 (up from 87,122 / +971 / 1.1%) - 6,753 deaths (+98)
• Mexico - 74,560 (up from 71,105 / +3,455 / 4.9%) - 8,134 deaths (+501)
• Netherlands - 45,970 (up from 45,780 / +190 / 0.4%) - 5,890 deaths (+15)
• Sweden - 35,088 (up from 34,440 / +648 / 1.9%) - 4,220 deaths (+95)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain - 236,259 (up from 235,400 / +859 / 0.4%) - 27,117 deaths (+283)
• Italy - 230,555 (up from 230,158 / +397 / 0.2%) - 32,955 deaths (+78)
• Germany - 181,293 (up from 180,802 / +491 / 0.3%) - 8,408 deaths (+79)
• Turkey - 158,762 (up from 157,814 / +948 / 0.6%) - 4,397 deaths (+28)
• China - 84,104 (up from 84,102 / +2 / 0.0%) - 4,638 deaths (+0)
• Belgium - 57,592 (up from 57,455 / +137 / 0.2%) - 9,364 deaths (+30)
• Switzerland - 30,776 (up from 30,761 / +15 / 0.0%) - 1,917 deaths (+2)
• Ireland - 24,735 (up from 24,698 / +37 / 0.1%) - 1,615 deaths (+9)
• Japan - 16,623 (up from 16,581 / +42 / 0.3%) - 846 deaths (+16)
• South Korea - 11,265 (up from 11,225 / +40 / 0.4%) - 269 deaths (+0)
• Australia - 7,139 (up from 7,133 / +6 / 0.1%) - 103 deaths (+1)
• New Zealand - 1,504 (up from 1,504 / +0 / 0.0%) - 21 deaths (+0)

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta - 6,901 (up from 6,879 / +22 / 0.3%) - 139 (+1) deaths
• British Columbia - 2,541 (up from 2,530 / +11 / 0.4%) - 161 (+0) deaths
• Manitoba - 292 (unchanged from 292 / +0 / 0%) - 7 (+0) deaths
• New Brunswick - 122 (up from 121 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Newfoundland/Labrador - 260 (unchanged from 260 / +0 / 0%) - 3 (+0) deaths
• Northwest Territories - 5 (unchanged from 5 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Nova Scotia - 1,052 (up from 1,051 / +1 / 0.1%) - 59 (+1) deaths
• Ontario - 27,627 (up from 27,305 / 322 / 1.2%) - 2,123 (+21) deaths
• Quebec - 48,607 (up from 47,993 / +614 / 1.3%) - 4,139 (+70) deaths
• Prince Edward Island - 27 (unchanged from 27 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths
• Saskatchewan - 634 (unchanged from 634 / +0 / 0%) - 8 (+1) deaths
• Yukon - 11 (unchanged from 11 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths

 

[rareboy]

More on effective testing strategies.

 

[KaraBulut]

28-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 5,722,859 (up from 5,618,829 / 1.9%) - *‬*104,030 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 356,213 (up from 351,146) - **5,067 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,700,350 cases (up from 1,681,418 / 1.1% yesterday), ‬**18,197 new cases, % of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 1,993 (10.8%), outside NJ/NY - 16,522 (89.2%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 100,467 deaths, +1,534 deaths yesterday , 30.3% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 327 (21.6%), outside NJ/NY - 1,186 (78.4%)
- Testing: - 15,192,481 tests (up from 14,907,041 yesterday, +285,440 tests), 4.6% of the US population has been tested, 11.2% positive rate

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 364,965 (up from 363,836 / +1,129 / 0.3%)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,811,544 (up from 1,774,128 / +37,416)- 20.1% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 197,351 (up from 196,623 / +728), hospitalized 51,380 (+93)
- Deaths reported in NYC - 21,362 (up from 21,314 / +48), confirmed 16,610, suspected 4,752

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 1,700,350 (up from 1,681,418 / +18,932 / 1.1%) - 100,467 deaths (+1,534)
• Brazil: 411,821 (up from 391,222 / +20,599 / 5.5%) - 25,598 deaths (+1,086)
• Russia: 379,051 (up from 370,680 / +8,371 / 2.3%) - 4,142 deaths (+174)
• UK: 268,620 (up from 266,602 / +2,018 / 0.8%) - 37,542 deaths (+412)
• France: 183,038 (up from 182,847 / +191 / 0.1%) - 28,599 deaths (+66)
• India: 159,138 (up from 153,247 / +5,891 / 4.0%) - 4,560 deaths (+193)
• Iran: 143,849 (up from 141,591 / +2,258 / 1.6%) - 7,627 deaths (+63)
• Mexico: 78,023 (up from 74,560 / +3,463 / 4.9%) - 8,597 deaths (+463)
• Sweden: 35,727 (up from 35,088 / +639 / 1.9%) - 4,266 deaths (+46)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Italy: 231,139 (up from 230,555 / +584 / 0.3%) - 33,072 deaths (+117)
• Spain: 236,259 (up from 236,259 / +0 / 0.0%) - 27,118 deaths (+1)
• Germany: 181,918 (up from 181,293 / +625 / 0.3%) - 8,463 deaths (+55)
• Turkey: 159,797 (up from 158,762 / +1,035 / 0.7%) - 4,431 deaths (+34)
• Canada: 88,996 (up from 88,093 / +903 / 1.0%) - 6,877 deaths (+124)
• China: 84,106 (up from 84,104 / +2 / 0.0%) - 4,638 deaths (+0)
• Belgium: 57,849 (up from 57,592 / +257 / 0.4%) - 9,388 deaths (+24)
• Netherlands: 46,152 (up from 45,970 / +182 / 0.4%) - 5,922 deaths (+32)
• Switzerland: 30,796 (up from 30,776 / +20 / 0.1%) - 1,919 deaths (+2)
• Ireland: 24,803 (up from 24,735 / +68 / 0.3%) - 1,631 deaths (+16)
• Japan: 16,651 (up from 16,623 / +28 / 0.2%) - 858 deaths (+12)
• South Korea: 11,344 (up from 11,265 / +79 / 0.7%) - 269 deaths (+0)
• Australia: 7,157 (up from 7,139 / +18 / 0.3%) - 103 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,504 (up from 1,504 / +0 / 0.0%) - 22 deaths (+1)

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta: 6,926 (up from 6,901 / +25 / 0.4%) - 141 deaths (+2)
• British Columbia: 2,550 (up from 2,541 / +9 / 0.4%) - 162 deaths (+1)
• Manitoba: 292 (unchanged from 292 / +0 / 0%) - 7 deaths (+0)
• New Brunswick: 122 (up from 121 / 1+ / 0.8%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Newfoundland/Labrador: 260 (unchanged from 260 / +0 / 0%) - 3 (+0) deaths (+0)
• Northwest Territories: 5 (unchanged from 5 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Nova Scotia: 1,053 (up from 1,052 / +1 / 0.1%) - 59 deaths (+0)
• Ontario: 27,943 (up from 27,627 / +316 / 1.1%) - 2,155 deaths (+32)
• Quebec: 49,148 (up from 48,607 / +541 / 1.1%) - 4,228 deaths (+89)
• Prince Edward Island: 27 (unchanged from 27 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Saskatchewan: 634 (unchanged from 634 / +3 / 0.5%) - 10 deaths (+2)
• Yukon: 11 (unchanged from 11 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)

 

[KaraBulut]

It's easier to hide cases than dead bodies. Several countries have reported death numbers that would indicate an unusually high mortality rates. High mortality, especially in a developed country, usually indicates the country has been testing only people who are sick enough to see a physician or they have lost control of the epidemic to the point that the health system has to focus on acutely ill people instead of doing contact tracing.

Here's the calculated mortality based upon the number of confirmed cases and reported deaths:

• US: cases- 1,700,350 / deaths- 100,467 / calculated mortality: 5.9%
• Brazil: cases- 411,821 / deaths- 25,598 / calculated mortality: 6.3%
  [*]Russia: cases- 379,051 / deaths- 4,142 / calculated mortality: 1.1%
• UK: cases- 268,620 / deaths- 37,542 / calculated mortality: 13.9%
• Spain: cases- 236,259 / deaths- 27,118 / calculated mortality: 11.5%
• Italy: cases- 231,139 / deaths- 33,072 / calculated mortality: 14.3%
• France: cases- 183,038 / deaths- 28,599 / calculated mortality: 15.6%
• Germany: cases- 181,918 / deaths- 8,463 / calculated mortality: 4.6%
• Turkey: cases- 159,797 / deaths- 4,431 / calculated mortality: 2.8%
• India: cases- 159,138 / deaths- 4,560 / calculated mortality: 2.8%
• Iran: cases- 143,849 / deaths- 7,627 / calculated mortality: 5.3%
• Canada: cases- 88,996 / deaths- 6,877 / calculated mortality: 7.7%
• China: cases- 84,106 / deaths- 4,638 / calculated mortality: 5.5%
• Mexico: cases- 78,023 / deaths- 8,597 / calculated mortality: 10.9%
• Belgium: cases- 57,849 / deaths- 9,388 / calculated mortality: 16.3%
• Netherlands: cases- 46,152 / deaths- 5,922 / calculated mortality: 12.8%
• Sweden: cases- 35,727 / deaths- 4,266 / calculated mortality: 12.0%
• Switzerland: cases- 30,796 / deaths- 1,919 / calculated mortality: 6.2%
• Ireland: cases- 24,803 / deaths- 1,631 / calculated mortality: 6.5%
• Japan: cases- 16,651 / deaths- 858 / calculated mortality: 5.1%
  [*]South Korea: cases- 11,344 / deaths- 269 / calculated mortality: 2.4%
  [*]Australia: cases- 7,157 / deaths- 103 / calculated mortality: 1.4%
  [*]New Zealand: cases- 1,504 / deaths- 22 / calculated mortality: 1.4%

What we're learning from epidemiological studies is that COVID-19 would be expected to yield a mortality in the range of between 1 percent and 3 percent. So, for every 1,000 people who contract the virus, between 10 to 30 of them will die.

If you take the deaths reported and assume that reported deaths is 2% of the cases, this is what the case numbers would look like:

• US: expected cases- 10,046,700 / case undercount: 8,346,350
• UK : expected cases- 3,754,200 / case undercount: 3,342,379
• Italy : expected cases- 3,307,200 / case undercount: 2,928,149
• France : expected cases- 2,859,900 / case undercount: 2,591,280
• Spain : expected cases- 2,711,800 / case undercount: 2,475,541
• Brazil: expected cases- 2,559,800 / case undercount: 2,328,661
• Belgium: expected cases- 938,800 / case undercount: 755,762
• Mexico: expected cases- 859,700 / case undercount: 677,782
• Germany : expected cases- 846,300 / case undercount: 686,503
• Iran : expected cases- 762,700 / case undercount: 603,562
• Canada : expected cases- 687,700 / case undercount: 543,851
• Netherlands : expected cases- 592,200 / case undercount: 503,204
• China: expected cases- 463,800 / case undercount: 379,694
• India: expected cases- 456,000 / case undercount: 377,977
• Turkey: expected cases- 443,100 / case undercount: 385,251
• Sweden: expected cases- 426,600 / case undercount: 380,448
  [*]Russia: expected cases- 414,200 / case undercount: 378,473
• Switzerland : expected cases- 191,900 / case undercount: 161,104
• Ireland: expected cases- 163,100 / case undercount: 138,297
• Japan: expected cases- 85,800 / case undercount: 69,149
  [*]South Korea : expected cases- 26,900 / case undercount: 15,556
  [*]Australia : expected cases- 10,300 / case undercount: 3,143
  [*]New Zealand: expected cases- 2,200 / case undercount: 696

So, the staggering 1.7 million cases that the US is reporting is grossly underestimating the actual number of cases which is more likely to be 10 times the confirmed cases that the US is reporting - the accurate number is more likely to be 10 million infected people. The UK would be expected to have 3.7 million cases instead of the 268,620 cases they have reported.


Notice where the 4 countries in red end up. These countries reported confirmed cases and confirmed deaths that calculate into the expected 1-3% mortality range.

• Australia, South Korea and New Zealand implemented an early, aggressive test programs. They did aggressive contact tracing and they isolated and quarantined anyone who was infected or had been exposed to someone who was infected. Australia and New Zealand also had the geographic advantage of being able to restrict travel to their countries. These three countries had low death counts and their calculated mortalities were closer to the 1-3% expected.
• Russia changes from being #3 in reported cases down to #17 in the expected cases. It's likely that Russia is under-reporting deaths. It would not be surprising to discover that Russia actually has between 15,000 to 30,000 deaths instead of the 4,142 they are reporting.

 

[KaraBulut]

29-May-2020:

Global COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Global Cases reported: 5,840,369 (up from 5,722,859 / 2.1%) - *‬*117,510 new cases yesterday
- Global Deaths: 361,066 (up from 356,213) - **4,853 people died yesterday

US COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity
- Cases reported in the US - 1,721,926 cases (up from 1,700,350 / 1.3% yesterday), ‬**21,576 new cases, 18.4% of world's new cases were in the US
- Yesterday's cases in NJ/NY - 2,325 (10.6%), outside NJ/NY - 19,668 (89.4%)
- Deaths reported in the US - 101,622 deaths, +1,155 deaths yesterday , 23.8% of the world's deaths yesterday were in the US
- Yesterday's Deaths in NJ/NY - 115 (9.8%), outside NJ/NY - 1,064 (90.2%)
- Testing: - 15,646,041 tests (up from 15,192,481 yesterday, +453,560 tests), 4.7% of the US population has been tested, 11.0% positive rate

NY state and NYC COVID-19 Mortality/Morbidity (as of 11AM yesterday)
- Cases reported in NY state - 366,733 (up from 364,965 / +1,768 / 0.5%)
- Persons tested in NY state - 1,876,789 (up from 1,811,544 / +65,245)- 19.5% positive rate
- Cases reported in NYC - 198,255 (up from 197,351 / +904), hospitalized 51,449 (+69)
- Deaths reported in NYC - 21,415 (up from 21,362 / +53), confirmed 16,673, suspected 4,742

Coronavirus cases/deaths in active countries (preference to countries with JUB members):

• US: 1,721,926 (up from 1,700,350 / +21,576 / 1.3% - 101,622 deaths (+1,155)
• Brazil: 438,238 (up from 411,821 / +26,417 / 6.4% - 26,754 deaths (+1,156)
• Russia: 387,623 (up from 379,051 / +8,572 / 2.3% - 4,374 deaths (+232)
• UK : 270,508 (up from 268,620 / +1,888 / 0.7% - 37,919 deaths (+377)
• France : 186,364 (up from 183,038 / +3,326 / 1.8% - 28,665 deaths (+66)
• India: 167,442 (up from 159,138 / +8,304 / 5.2% - 4,806 deaths (+246)
• Iran : 146,668 (up from 143,849 / +2,819 / 2.0% - 7,677 deaths (+50)
• Mexico: 81,400 (up from 78,023 / +3,377 / 4.3% - 9,044 deaths (+447)
• Sweden: 36,476 (up from 35,727 / +749 / 2.1% - 4,350 deaths (+84)

Coronavirus cases/deaths in recovering countries:

• Spain : 237,906 (up from 236,259 / +1,647 / 0.7% - 27,119 deaths (+1)
• Italy : 231,732 (up from 231,139 / +593 / 0.3% - 33,142 deaths (+70)
• Germany : 182,559 (up from 181,918 / +641 / 0.4% - 8,497 deaths (+34)
• Turkey: 160,979 (up from 159,797 / +1,182 / 0.7% - 4,461 deaths (+30)
• Canada : 89,976 (up from 88,996 / +980 / 1.1% - 6,982 deaths (+105)
• China: 84,119 (up from 84,106 / +13 / 0.0% - 4,638 deaths (+0)
• Belgium: 58,061 (up from 57,849 / +212 / 0.4% - 9,430 deaths (+42)
• Netherlands : 46,152 (up from 46,152 / +0 / 0.0% - 5,950 deaths (+28)
• Switzerland : 30,796 (up from 30,796 / +0 / 0.0% - 1,919 deaths (+0)
• Ireland: 24,841 (up from 24,803 / +38 / 0.2% - 1,639 deaths (+8)
• Japan: 16,647 (up from 16,651 / -4 / 0.0% - 886 deaths (+28)
• South Korea : 11,402 (up from 11,344 / +58 / 0.5% - 269 deaths (+0)
• Australia : 7,173 (up from 7,157 / +16 / 0.2% - 103 deaths (+0)
• New Zealand: 1,504 (up from 1,504 / +0 / 0.0% - 22 deaths (+0)

Canadian Province Stats:

• Alberta: 6,955 (up from 6,926 / +29 / 0.4%) - 143 deaths (+2)
• British Columbia: 2,558 (up from 2,550 / +8 / 0.3%) - 164 deaths (+2)
• Manitoba: 294 (up from 292 / +2 / 0.7%) - 7 deaths (+0)
• New Brunswick: 126 (up from 122 / +3 / 2.4%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Newfoundland/Labrador: 261 (up from 260 / +1 / 0.4%) - 3 (+0) deaths (+0)
• Northwest Territories: 5 (unchanged from 5 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Nova Scotia: 1,055 (up from 1,053 / +2 / 0.2%) - 59 deaths (+0)
• Ontario: 28,320 (up from 27,943 / +377 / 1.3%) - 2,189 deaths (+34)
• Quebec: 49,711 (up from 49,148 / +563 / 1.1%) - 4,302 deaths (+74)
• Prince Edward Island: 27 (unchanged from 27 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)
• Saskatchewan: 639 (up from 634 / +3 / 0.3%) - 10 deaths (+0)
• Yukon: 11 (unchanged from 11 / +0 / 0%) - 0 deaths (+0)

 

[belamyi]

Just a reminder.

Meanwhile...

Coronavirus DIDN’T start in Wuhan wet market but ‘super spreader’ brought it there, Chinese researchers claim

 

[KaraBulut]

Coronavirus DIDN’T start in Wuhan wet market but ‘super spreader’ brought it there, Chinese researchers claim

They really do need to get their story straight.

...Meanwhile...

See post #1307...

It's going to be interesting once they start running antibody studies on random samples in these countries.

And on that note:

Moscow revises Covid-19 death toll, more than doubling April fatalities [CNN]

Moscow health authorities have revised the city's coronavirus death toll for April, revealing that more than twice as many people died than previously reported.

Officials raised the documented number of fatalities attributed to Covid-19 to 1,561 up from 636.

CNN and other news outlets reported in mid-May that Moscow saw a mortality spike in April, adding an estimated 1,800 excess deaths in comparison with previous year averages.

Russia’s official number of Covid-19 deaths has been relatively low compared to countries with similar numbers of overall infections, and observers have questioned official counting methods that permit ascribing deaths in patients who tested positive for coronavirus to other causes such as terminal illnesses and other underlying conditions.

 

[belamyi]

They really do need to get their story straight.

You mean "The Sun"? Whatever for?!

Oh, you mean the Chinese. Same.

 

[KaraBulut]

Oh, you mean the Chinese.

Sí.