American Idol: Season 10

[Sgt Pepper]

I dont hate Lauren nearly as much as Pepper. I don't think anyone does tbh,

It's allright, I still love you.

And of course I'm rooting for little Haley and I'm glad she did Stevie and Alanis. But she sang the wrong fucking songs for both! How amazing would it have been if she sang "Edge of Seventeen" followed by "Uninvited"?

That would have been amazing!

but Lauren's first getup made me want to crack my tvscreen. She should lose just for that hideous outfit.

The sad part is, she thinks she's dressing all classy for a big event but she just looks ridiculous. Kinda like this ho:

 

[bobobo]

Did anyone catch Steven's negative comment on one of Lauren's songs?

 

[Youngandhealthy]

Thumbs up for Haley!

 

[joesman]

Haley is the only really good talent there. Lauren is as fake as her mother and sings like a grade school kid without any knowledge of what she sings or the emotional impact behind a song. Scotty is the same old song he has been doing all season, but I'll give him kudos for sticking with his comfort zone, but when he tries to stretch a song it just goes all wrong for me. Lauren shouldn't be there at all.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Haley is the only really good talent there. Lauren is as fake as her mother and sings like a grade school kid without any knowledge of what she sings or the emotional impact behind a song. Scotty is the same old song he has been doing all season,

Exactly. This sums is up perfectly!

 

[aijalon18]

It's allright, I still love you.

It seems you've been giving your lovin to A LOT of people Arnold!

 

[Sgt Pepper]

It seems you've been giving your lovin to A LOT of people Arnold!

I have two hands...

 

[Ontariobear]

DialIdol has Scotty with a huge lead and Lauren just ahead of Haley by a small amount. But then cougars and their daughters have proven they're all tone deaf before...

 

[slipintothefog]

Well, DialIdol isn't that dependable this season due to text and online voting. If anything, DialIdol's raw numbers have been more accurate than their predictions this year, since they've done things like say that Pia was safe when she was eliminated and that Ta-Tynisa Wilson was the highest voter getter of the entire semifinals when she didn't even advance rotflmao: ).

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Dial Idol's raw numbers have been a much better indicator this season, and the raw numbers show Lauren with the lowest number of votes.

That said, I fully expect Uncle Nigel to get the Final 2 he wants in Scotty and Lauren. The thing is, Haley went from Bottom 3 fodder to plucky underdog and squeezed herself into the F3 against God's plan. She did it all on her own talent, without any help (and with considerable sabotage) from the producers and the judges. So if she goes home tonight, it won't be that terrible. She made it way past the point anyone expected her to, and I'm happy for that.

Just as long as Lauren fucking Alaina doesn't win this dog and pony show, I'm good.

 

[aijalon18]

I have two hands...

Please, you got way too much going on with way too many other posters. One of them says you rock his world. You dont have enough hands to rock his world and mine. It's not meant to be. Guys are all the same....

Hopefully Haley doesnt go, so I can have something to brighten this dreary day.

 

[slipintothefog]

That said, I fully expect Uncle Nigel to get the Final 2 he wants in Scotty and Lauren. The thing is, Haley went from Bottom 3 fodder to plucky underdog and squeezed herself into the F3 against God's plan.

Now, I know that Nigel wasn't around during AI8, but let me change a few names to give my perspective for why I can see Haley advancing:

That said, I fully expect Uncle Nigel to get the Final 2 he wants in Adam and Danny. The thing is, Kris went from Top 36 fodder to plucky underdog and squeezed himself into the F3 against God's plan.

Granted, Haley has a vagina and isn't as cute as Kris Allen, which is probably why she won't win, but I haven't ruled it out just because she's been totally repeating Kris' underdog storyline.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

But that's the thing about Kris Allen. They acted like he was an underdog, but he never really was. Kris got teen girl power-voters from day one and was NEVER in the bottom three (there was that one week fake-out at Top 5, but we all know that wasn't the Bottom Three). Remember, the judges don't know the vote totals, only Uncle Nigel knows. At Top 4 and Top 3, Kris was declared safe first, and looking back, it's possible he was among the highest vote getters every week.

In fact, has there ever been a F2 contestant who frequented the bottom three as much as Haley has? I think the stats are against her cracking the Top 2.

 

[slipintothefog]

Syesha definitely must have been in the bottom 3 more. Give me a few minutes and I'll gather those stats for you.

Regardless, AI's machine clearly never thought much of Kris's chances. They didn't even bother showing his audition and, if you look at the album artwork for Kris and Adam's first singles made in the chance that each one, one of them CLEARLY had more effort put into it, and it wasn't Kris's.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Syesha definitely must have been in the bottom 3 more. Give me a few minutes and I'll gather those stats for you.

Syesha didn't make it to Top 2. My question was: has there been a Final 2 contestant who frequented the Bottom Three as much as Haley?

Syesha is a better example than Kris Allen because her trajectory was similar to Haley's. She frequented the Bottom Three and then somehow managed to peak late in the game and beat out chosen ones like Jason Castro for a F3 spot. But ultimately, she couldn't crack the Top 2. I fear Haley will be the same.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Regardless, AI's machine clearly never thought much of Kris's chances. They didn't even bother showing his audition and, if you look at the album artwork for Kris and Adam's first singles made in the chance that each one, one of them CLEARLY had more effort put into it, and it wasn't Kris's.

I agree. But I'm talking about votes -- which is ultimately what's needed to win this shit -- not production. Clearly production and the judges saw him as an underdog but my contention is, he never really was once teen girls (and some gays) saw his face. Seriously. Kris Allen had what Haley likely doesn't have: a significant base of rabid super-fans.

I hope I'm wrong though.

 

[slipintothefog]

None of these bottom three numbers include the week the contestant went home...

• AI1: Nikki McKibbin - five bottom threes. Finished third
• AI2: Kimberely Locke - four bottom threes. Finished third.
• AI3: Diana DeGarmo and Jasmine Trias - three bottom visits each. Finished second and third.
• AI4: Anthony Federov - four bottom threes, finished fourth.
• AI5: Ace Young and Elliott Yamin - three bottom threes; Elliot finished third, Ace seventh.
• AI6: Phil Stacey - four bottom threes; finished sixth.
• AI7: Syesha Mercado - five bottom threes; finished third.
• AI8: Alison Iraheta - three bottom threes, finished fourth.
• AI9: Tim Urban and Mike Lynch - three bottom threes each (including the week Mike was saved), finished seventh and fourth.
• AI10: Haley wins this season with four.

So, yeah, Nikki and Syesha beat out Haley, which is a feat in Nikki's case considering her season had only ten finalists and a double elimination, while Haley's had thirteen. The thing is, for a lot of these people, them being in the bottom was a pretty consistent thing. Haley's mostly came in the beginning and then in the last few weeks, she was completely safe.

So now that I see your question again Pepper - no, there has never been a F2 contestant who has been in the bottom as much as Haley.

Pardon me for not seeing that you were asking about F2 specifically, I'm totally out of it due to eye allergies today.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

And here are the stats for those who made the finals (Final 2) and had at least one bottom three/bottom two trip under the belt.

Season 1
Justin Guarini (1 bottom 2)

Season 2
Ruben Stuudard (1 bottom 2)

Season 3
Fantasia Barrino (2 bottom 2) and Diana DeGarmo (3 bottom 3)

Season 4
Bo Bice (1 bottom 2)

Season 5
Katharine McPhee (2 bottom 2)

Season 6
Blake Lewis (1 bottom 3)

As I said before, there was a "fakeout" bottom three/two at F5 of Season 8, but we all know Adam and Kris weren't really in the bottom three so that one doesn't count. They basically didn't announce any bottom two/three that week, just like they did that fakeout with Scotty a few weeks ago (and then told us he'd never actually been in the bottom).

So basically, all the winners except Fantasia NEVER made it to bottom three or two. And of the runner-ups, Clay Aiken, David Archuleta, Adam Lambert and Crystal Bowersox can boast the same. What does this all mean?

Well first of all, I think it's interesting that winners and runner-ups started avoiding the bottom three even moreso after texting and power-texting became a big deal (around Season 6 or so). Since then, only ONE finalist (Blake Lewis) took a trip to the bottom three. And just once.

That's why I think we can't look at Fantasia or Diana as any hope/precedent for Haley since voting methods have altered the game since Season 3. Otherwise Diana's 3 trips to the bottom three would be encouraging.

So, Haley could be safe, but betting on that is basically betting on a statistical anomaly i.e. something that does not occur regularly on this show. You're betting against the odds to say that someone who made more than one bottom three appearance will crack the final 2.

These stats though are even more encouraging for Scotty's victory since he's never been in the bottom three (both Haley and Lauren have) and only one winner (Fantasia) has ever had that, and like I said, that's way back in Season 3 before power texting.

Final conclusion based on these numbers: we can make a reasonable prediction that Haley won't crack the top 2, and an almost certain prediction that Scotty will win the season.

 

[slipintothefog]

In the face of statistics and even common sense, I'll make a bold prediction and say that I think Haley survives tonight. Feel free to laugh at me when I'm wrong.

I'll have my Haley victory snap animation and/or Haley bitchface pictures on hand for spamming regardless of the outcome.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

In the face of statistics and even common sense, I'll make a bold prediction and say that I think Haley survives tonight. Feel free to laugh at me when I'm wrong.

I'll be too happy to do any such thing . I'll just high five you, aijalon, Karen Walker and anyone else who's willing to celebrate!

I'll have my Haley victory snap animation and/or Haley bitchface pictures on hand for spamming regardless of the outcome.

I expect nothing less. Also, in the unlikely event that Lauren's fat ass is eliminated, I expect you to do her falling down the stairs one more time