I dunno. The House vote was 121-23 in the Texas House. Paxton has enemies. At this point, his dog probably wants him gone, too.
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The Senate vote is going to be weird. His wife (the one he cheated on with the lobbyist) is a member of the Texas Senate.
I think he's going to be convicted by the Texas Senate. News reports say that Paxton was calling House members while they were on the floor threatening to make it difficult for them to get re-elected. Paxton has the Nutty-Fundie base (which is a big part of the Republican primary voters in Texas) but there's been enough unseemly shit that gets uncovered, I think the Texas Senate will dump him and he'll finally get the trial that he's managed to stall for 6 years.
I've seen a lot of office politics involving shady people. This reminds me of cases where shady powerful people were protecting other shady powerful people... until they weren't. Paxton pissed off somebody in power. Somebody in power has decided that Paxton has gotten to big for his britches and they were hoping that the Texas voters would dump him in 2022. Since Paxton was re-elected in 2022, the powers-that-be used a Texas House investigation to build Paxton's coffin. I suspect those same people will be out buying nails for Texas Senators to nail the coffin shut.
Other possible explanation: some rich donor in Texas has told Abbott, Patrick and Phelan to get rid of Paxton.
Here's the 20 articles in the impeachment motion. It's tawdry stuff.
- Article 1, disregard of official duty - Paxton had employees in his office intervene in a lawsuit against one of his donors, Nate Paul.
- Article 2, disregard of official duty - Paxton issued opinions that helped Nate Paul avoid foreclosures on properties owned by Paul.
- Article 3, disregard of official duty - Paxton ordered State employees to not follow Texas' open records laws.
- Article 4, disregard of official duty - Paxton abused public information laws to benefit Nate Paul.
- Article 5, disregard of official duty - Paxton hired cronies to work for the State Attorney General's office to abuse the grand gury system for the benefit of Nate Paul.
- Article 6, disregard of official duty - Paxton fired employees who had filed complaints in 2020 about Paxton's behavior which violated the Texas Whistleblower Act.
- Article 7, misapplication of public resources - Paxton used State employees to retaliate against the whisteblowers and to issue a report that "cleared" Paxton of the accusations made by the whistleblowers.
- Article 8, disregard of official duty - Paxton did not recuse himself from the efforts to come to a settlement with the whistleblowers. The settlement would pay $3.3 million to the whistleblowers and would include an NDA that prevented the whistleblowers from publicly discussing the accusations against Paxton. This may have helped Paxton get re-elected in 2022, since the public was not given all of the facts about the accusations against Paxton.
- Article 9, constitutional bribery - Paxton was having an affair with a female lobbyist. He got Nate Paul to hire the woman.
- Article 10, constitutional bribery - Nate Paul paid to remodel Paxton's home.
- Article 11, obstruction of justice - Paxton was under indictment for securities fraud when he was elected in 2014. He's obstructed the investigation so that he's avoided trial for 8 years.
- Article 12, obstruction of justice - Another Paxton donor, Jeff Blackard, conspired with Paxton to use legal action to further Paxton's trial for securities fraud.
- Article 13, false statements in official records - Paxton lied to the State Securities Board regarding his promotion of stocks for sale which led to his indictment for securities fraud.
- Article 14, false statements in official records - Paxton lied on financial disclosure forms required by State law.
- Article 15, false statements in official records - Paxton lied during the investigation of the whistleblower accusatoins.
- Article 16, conspiracy and attempted conspiracy - Paxton conspired with other people in connection with the crimes detailed in the previous Articles.
- Article 17, misappropriation of public resources - Paxton used Texas state workers to do work to benefit Paxton's donors.
- Article 18, dereliction of duty - Paxton's actions in the Articles violated his oath of office.
- Article 19, unfitness for office - Paxton committed public and private actions that make him unfit to serve as Attorney General.
- Article 20, abuse of public trust - Paxton abused his office as Attorney General and brought the attorney general’s office “into scandal and disrepute".