I wish I could tell you who was going to win this election, but I can't. The best I can tell, it's going to be fucking close, almost a toss-up. Anything could happen.
One thing that certainly won't happen is that we hold any sort of a national election for president here in the US.
We don't hold national elections, and never have; instead, we'll hold fifty different state elections, all at the same time.
Each state makes up its own rules, administers its own election process, tabulates its own results, and resolves internal disputes by itself, using their own procedures as interpreted by their own lawyers. Each of them are different; each is imperfect; each is uncomfortably open to widespread fraud, and each is likely to be staffed with several well-meaning but shockingly incompetent people, with a handful of honest-to-god scam artists thrown in.
There is simply no way for us to hold a close presidential election which is going to be clean enough for the current electorate to accept; unless one of the candidates can surprise us all with a decisive margin of victory, we will be entering election-dispute hell, and that we will be staying there for several months.
Once that happens, here are three things you can absolutely count on:
1) Bush stole the election. If he wins - or even if he just claims a win - there is zero chance, none, that charges of fraud will not loudly be raised. It's as good as pre-stolen. Furthermore, blacks will be disenfranchised by the millions, quite possibly even the billions. This story is already written and carefully rehearsed; whatever actually occurs is irrelevant. Every mainstream media outfit will trumpet this like it's news, and many people will believe it, too.
2) The final call is going to be made by Federal judges, probably under the Equal Protection doctrine. Equal Protection, like the Commerce Clause, is sort of an all-purpose method for the feds to assume authority for everything, even those things which are, constitutionally, explicitly under the control of the states. We will pay dearly for this down the road, because every fucking election for the rest of our lives is likely to be settled this way. After all, once an unelected, unaccountable branch of government assumes final authority over the election process itself, what could possibly go wrong?
Oh, yeah, and there might be only eight justices this time, instead of nine. Think about that one for a minute.
In the Supreme Court, ties default to the status quo - they means they uphold whatever the lower court decided. So, if this election gets decided by some harebrained district judge in the middle of butt-nowhere, he's likely to set precedent for the entire nation. I'll bet you the entire contents of my checking account that both sides have already considered this, and have already pre-selected which judges they will appeal to in each contested district. (After all, what could possibly go wrong)?
3) No matter who wins, the Democratic party is going to enter into a major crisis.
A Kerry loss will smell a lot like 1968. I honestly expect to see something of a return to the small-scale domestic terrorism we saw during that time; the Weather Underground, the SLA, the Black Panthers and other disaffected leftists wreaked a surprising amount of havoc for a while. It's quite possible they may have a few contemporaries, people who feel they had been excluded from the political process and who are ready to bomb and shoot their way back to the table. (Undoubtably, these folks will revert to the old 1968 playbook. They will be quickly realize that law enforcement is using the newer 2004 playbook, and they can discuss it amongst themselves while they are rotting in jail).
A Kerry win might be little better. Even if Kerry is a good guy - hardworking, honest, capable, and doing the best he can - his only real mandate now is simply to remove Bush, and it will be gone the moment he is sworn into office. He will be compelled to lead a nation of mostly hawks, and to do it with a Republican house and senate. The anti-war wing of his party has a serious disappointment waiting for them in 2005.
Kerry is not going to deliver huge tax hikes, or heath care for everyone, or a quick way out of Iraq; the legislature is simply not going to go along. He is not going to bring you Osama Bin Laden or reduce terrorism to a nuisance, either; he's just going to be a
Freshmen president, facing a hostile legislature and a deeply divided, mostly pro-war electorate. The Republicans are going to pound the crap out of him at every opportunity, and he will have very little to use against them.
What's he going to do, threaten the Republicans with the seething, untapped power of the dovish middle?
Pro-war Democrats don't concern me; they are mostly sane, and they seem willing to put their nation first. The antiwar left is going to implode, and it's just a matter of how much damage they do on their way to history's dustbin.
Oh yeah, I just heard that, that small town in New Hampshire who vote right after mid-night on election day, can't remember the name;but they gave Bush a majority of their 30 something votes! I don't think that amount makes a trend? No?
Please, do stand in line if you have to, wait and be patient and at least use this right that many others around the world woud give anything to have....the ability to elect the person of their choice to represent them...democratically!
May the best man win: Bush or Kerry and may God Bless the United States of America!
Cock...