I found this article interesting.
http://kolotv.com/home/headlines/35523029.html
Singling out 1 Demographic is wrong and delusional.
Remove the older vote and prop 8 still would not have passed.
Willful blindness does not change the facts
You see, I think there are two ways of looking at this thing.
One way is to completely disregard the behaviors within each demographic and solely judge on a bottom line perspective.
For example, one may say that "70% of Blacks voted for Prop 8, BUT Black voters were only 10% of the entire vote. Therefore, we are basically going to ignore the behaviors within this entire group, since in reality, Blacks only comprised 10% of the vote."
Another example of this way of thinking is "61% of Seniors voted Yes on Prop 8, but all Seniors only represented 15% of the entire vote. Therefore, we aren't going to pay attention to them, either."
The other way of looking at it is to actually dissect behaviors INSIDE each demographic and address the problems that way.
For example, where as one may say that Blacks are only 10% of the entire vote, a person advocating holding Blacks accountable would say "that is still no excuse for 70% of the Black race voting in favor of Prop 8. This demonstrates a large amount of bigotry and homophobia (blamed on religious reasons) within this one particular community."
Another example of looking at the behaviors INSIDE the community and dissecting them would be to say "I realize that Seniors ONLY comprised 15% of the total vote, but 61% of those Seniors voted in favor of it. This also demonstrates a large amount of bigotry and homophobia (also blamed on religious reasons) within this one particular community."
Now, if we want to look at purely the bottom line in who physically got this bill passed, I did some basic multiplication based on the figures provided:
30.87% of the total "Yes" vote were White
7% of the total "Yes" vote were Black
9.54% of the total "Yes" vote were Hispanic
9.15% of the total "Yes" vote were Senior Citizens
27.95% of the total "Yes" vote were Protestant
19.2% of the total "Yes" vote were Catholic
Remove any one of those percentages from the Yes vote, and the bill would have failed. So, take your pick.
Let's look at what would have happened if we gave Blacks the exact same percentages in Favor/Against as the White Vote. The White Vote represented 63% of the entire vote. And the White vote was 49% in Favor and 51% against. (Exact same percentages as the Asian vote).
Now, common sense dictates that based on this, if Whites were 100% of the vote, then the Bill would have failed. So obviously, you have to look at the Non-Whites who were responsible for passing this bill.
Nevertheless, if Blacks who represented 10% of the total vote, were 49% in Favor and 51% against, then we would have had 4.9% of the total Yes vote coming from Blacks. That would have been a reduction of 2.1% from the total Yes Vote.
Keeping that in mind, here were the final percentages from Prop 8:
Yes- 52.24%
No- 47.76%
Subtract the 2.1% of Blacks who would have voted against it, and you would have had:
Yes- 50.14%
No- 49.86%
So, the bill would have still just barely passed.
Now, if Latinos voted based on the same Yes/No percentages as Whites, then here is what we would be looking at:
Latinos represented 18% of the total vote. 53% were in favor and 47% were against. If we changed those percentages to reflect the same percentages as Whites and Asians (which again, were 49% and 51%), then here is what we would have:
8.82% of the Total Yes vote would have come from Latinos. This would be a reduction of .72% from the total Yes vote.
Combined with the reduction in the Black vote in the scenario above, we would be looking at:
Yes- 49.42%
No- 50.58%
So, if both of these Racial groups voted in the same percentages as Whites and Asians, then the Bill would have failed. Clearly, I can understand why people are pointing the finger at both Blacks and Latinos in that regard.
As far as Age
the 18-29 year old crowd was the ONLY crowd that voted overwhelmingly "No"
39% voted "Yes" and 61% voted "No". If the other Age brackets would have voted along the lines of the 18-29 year olds, then obviously the bill would have failed.
As far as Religion, take a look at this.
People who do not identify themselves with a particular Religion comprised 10% percent of the total vote. They voted as such:
Yes- 10%
No- 90%
Again, another obvious example in what would have happened if religion wasn't in the equation.
So based on these results and really breaking down the numbers:
One could clearly accuse people of Faith in passing the Bill (duh!)
One could clearly accuse people above the age of 29 as passing the bill.
One can accuse Both Blacks and Latinos of passing the bill.
If there were any deviation in any of those 3 scenarios as outlined in each of the scenarios, the bill would have clearly failed.
If we are going by
RACE and bottom line numbers according to this exit poll, Blacks AND Latinos did PASS the bill.
If we are going by
AGE and bottom line numbers according to this exit poll, all Age Brackets who were 30 and above PASSED the bill.