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Gay Marriage Updates By State

Kruger's challenger dropped out due to a lack of signatures.

Ramos may be underfunded, but he's getting lots of endorsements (recently 2 from huge unions) and Diaz is finding himself under increasing controversy, and not just for gay marriage (he also voiced support for a bill that would fire over a thousand teachers from the Brox area).

Stachowski has also been under fire for holding up approval of the state budget.

Also, there is a decent chance the New York State Senate will actually gain Democratic seats this election (from what I understand, it's one of the only states to NOT be affected by the Tea Party), most likely one in Long Island and one in Queens.

If enough gay rights supporters get out and vote in the primaries in less then 3 weeks, there is actually a good chance of outseating all 3 of them, since very few people vote in primary elections of any kind.
 
Also, don't forget that if the gap narrows, it will up the chances of Republican support, the risk of pledging support to a bill that "won't pass" will go down. Jim Alessi (Republican-Rochester) was long considered a likely yes vote, but voted no for that reason (and he seemed like he genuinly wanted to vote yes).

Addabbo will likely flip to yes out of fear of facing a similar fate of his fellow Queen senators (assumingly). Auberdine was a Freshmen senator in a Republican (though increasingly Democratic) lean area, so now that he has his feet in the ground he will likely feel more comfortable with taking risks.

In 2008 Foley won the election by 21,000 votes (don't know the % though). Hopefully Cuamo's coattails will help him out a bit (he's expected to win by at least 60%).
 
Geez, why the change of heart Razor?

"I don't buy it. There's no difference between a yes vote for a passing bill and a yes vote for a failing bill."

Did you read what Alesi said after the vote?

Yes, there is a huge difference, because if you vote yes to it and it doesn't pass it was for nothing (New York politics work like that apparently)

"A yes vote is the same either way. Either the constituents are going to like it or they aren't. I think, if anything, it would piss them off more if Alesi is the deciding vote and it passes if his district doesn't want it to pass."

He represents the Rochester area. Not super conservative, so it likely wouldn't be too risky.

"Monserrate was a criminal and Onorato was a really old fuck who had to retire, so there's no recourse there. Addabbo can do whatever the fug he wants. His district is just too conservative."

But Queens is becoming increasingly liberal too. All of New York is actually.

"The only sign of hope would be to see Shirley Huntley's ass kicked to the curb. That would really put Addabbo on warning.

I really doubt it, though. These dipshit religio-tards will continue voting for conservadems and voting against their own interests. We've seen the cycle of perpetuating misery in so many other places in this country. People continually vote for these politicians who are drunk on religion - just like them - only to see those very politicians leave their districts in ruin with awful, corrupt, self-serving policies."

You may be surprised come September 15. Charlie Ramos has gained MAJOR union support while Diaz continues to attract growing criticism. Lynn Nues and Tim Kennedy are also gaining ground as well.

"Bullshit. Foley was a Freshmen too and had no problem. Aubertine has taken a firm "no" stance. A lot of people put him as a maybe, but as it turns out, he pledged a no-vote all along. I don't know what the fuck Tom Duane was smoking."

Do you have a source for Aubertine? I always heard he and Addabbo were undecided/leaned yes until the end. Also, Foley's district is likely more liberal then Aubertine's, and don't forget that Aubertine represents much of the same area as Scozzfava did as well.

"Cuomo's coattails? Please. Cuomo is a lock - nobody's going to be galvanized to go out and vote for him. Foley won comfortably, but it's a fairly Rebpulican district, and Foley really seemed to ride the Obama vote just like the other Dems in '08."

Okay, let me rephrase that: The Republican party is very unpopular right now in New York, so that will benefit Senate elections.

"They are fucked in NY unless they get a net gain of 4 pro-equality Senators. It's possible, but unlikely. Again, it comes down to the primaries. If we see Stachowski, Huntley, and Diaz all hold onto their seats, it's as good as done."

It's more likely then you think since not many people vote in the primaries, so they can be very easy to sway. Also, Padavan is out for sure.
 
Guys,
I see the biggest stumbling block in New York as competing priorities at the moment. BUDGET, State Workers resolve to prohibit any reductions in staff because they can refuse until 2011 - our finances falling into the sinkhole be damned.

As to Alessi - a Republican living in a working class town bordering the more Republican parts of Monroe County, of which Rochester is a part. (Louis Slaughter lives in my town, but the redistricting from 2000 census put us in the Corning US Rep district, even though we live North of Louise!)

The voters are fed up with the grid lock and immobility of the state legislature. People may not like what our current governor is/has done, but he's been calling a spade a spade, and been trying to help solve the fiscal crisis. Downstate has controlled the purse strings - and, yes, they are Dems, for far too long - relying on the cash cow that[STRIKE] is[/STRIKE] WAS Wall Street to fund all of the social welfare programs. That cow was slaughtered and cooked up into Sloppy Joes when the Wall and the Banks barfed up on the world.

THESE are the issues that are going to get people in or out of office. I don't think Alessi has much to worry about. He doesn't make too many waves, and he tries to support his district. Rochester has a fairly vibrant and well accepted Gay Community. I don't believe Alessi's district extends to the Park Avenue area of the City, but I think, despite the more moderate slant on this side of town, people vote intelligently. I think Gay Marriage has fairly wide spread support in our area.

Gay Marriage just may be a sacrificial lamb to garner support for budgetary matters. Until that gets back on track, it may not be "important enough" (to the Legislature) to warrant any kind of heated debate.

A yes vote is the same either way. Either the constituents are going to like it or they aren't. I think, if anything, it would piss them off more if Alesi is the deciding vote and it passes if his district doesn't want it to pass.
Click to expand...
As I said, I don't think this would be a killer issue for Alessi.
 
DonQuixote said:
Guys,
I see the biggest stumbling block in New York as competing priorities at the moment. BUDGET, State Workers resolve to prohibit any reductions in staff because they can refuse until 2011 - our finances falling into the sinkhole be damned.
Click to expand...

The budget is not the problem. The issue was voted on recently. The problem is cowardly Democratic senators who caved and decided not to support it because they determined there were not enough votes and wanted to be on the winning side.
 
Too add a few words:

-As I said, primary elections are easier ways to make a difference, since voter turnout is much less then that of the general election. Either way, the big factor will be removing Diaz. His removal may result in other Democrats changing their votes.

-Addabbo recieving that many more emails from those opposed is not unusual (even for areas more liberal then Queens) since people are more likely to take the time to write when they are opposed to something, as opposed to being indifferent/in favor of.

-The Texas case may not be dead yet. The state appeals court made the latest ruling, and the plaintiffs have not said whether they will appeal to the state Supreme Court.

-I think the New Mexico case may result in the state recognizing (but not performing) same sex marriages, similar to New York, Maryland, and (to a smaller extent) Rhode Island.
 
Anyone know if Espada's successor supports marriage equality?

There's still a chance Carl Kruger will be kicked out of office due to seeking campaign contributions in exchange for political favors.

We should now be pushing to vote out Frank Padavan (the Queens Republican who won by only 500 votes in 2008) and the Republican in District 1 (where Regina Calceterra was running but dropped out due to residency requirements).
 
^^^Kenneth LaVelle is the Republican in district 1 BTW. supposedly it's turning blue (liberal New Yorkers moving out to Long Island).

I don't know of any current Democrat state senate seats that are currently in strong danger (many say New York in the only state to not be affected by the Tea Party). Many say David Valesky is the most vulnerable, yet he won with 59% in 2008.
 
Also, Cuamo's coattails will also likely help the Democrats in the state senate races.

LaValle will indeed have a Democrat challenger; Jennifer Maertz. She's a close college of Regina Calcaterra and has the exact same platforms as her.
 
Cuamo is leading by roughly 30% in every poll.

As for Addabbo, he won in 2008 by 58%. Again, a pretty comfortable margin, though a poll showed he and his opponent neck-and-neck.
 
Cuamo is leading in the polls by about 30%.

Also, Addabbo won in 2008 by 58%, so again, a good margin, but a poll did show him and his opponent pretty much neck and neck.

BTW, when I previously said David Valesky, I really meant Brian Foley.
 
Too add some stuff:

-Valesky won by 65% in 2008. Again, I don't know vulnerable he, Foley, and Addabbo really are, but they may have competative races nontheless.

-Great news for Maryland! Concentrate now on re-electing O Mailey (he recently said he'd sign a gay marriage bill if passed).

-The letter to the Board of Elections in New York is interesting. Hope something comes of that.
 
^^^I've wondered about that too regarding Hawaii. I'm sure it would pass in both chambers, since the civil unions bill got near supermajority support in both.

Good news about New York! I think it's pretty likely that the Dems. will make gains in the Senate this election. The 3 seats that are the most "threatened" don't seem to threatened to me (in 2008 the Dems. won them by 15%, 18%, and 30%) and as I said before, Cuamo's coattails will prove beneficial. Padavan's seat will shift Dem. for sure (he won by less then 500 votes in 2008). There is no info. on Kenneth LaVelle's seat nor the one in northern Westchester/Putnam county since in 2008 they ran unnapposed.

As of now, we need 4 more votes in the NY Senate (we could win with a tie since the Leutenaint Governor would cast the deciding vote). In reality, the only Dems. that are immovable are Diaz and Huntley.
 
Kruger continues to come under fire:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2010/09/not_a_good_news_day_for_amigos.html

Aubertine I guess can't move on this issue even if he wanted to, since his district is "lean Republican".

I think it's a good bet that Districts 1 and 11 will filp. District 40 is more of a longshot. Putnam county voted 53.4% for McCain. Westchester county voted 63% for Obama, though I assume results in the northern area were much more Republican. Still, 2 Democrat gains may very well be enough to push it over the edge. All of this speculation of course is assuming that no additional Republicans (other then Alessi) will vote Yes (seems likely, but who knows).
 
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