Gay Marriage Updates By State

[Ninja108]

Figured I'd try and provide some info since Jockboy87 sadly got fed up and left JUB.
From what I've read so far, there likely isn't going to be a broad ruling on gay marriage bans. The court is most likely going to punt on prop 8. Gay marriage will be brought back to California but it will likely be a mess sorting the legal issues out.
As for Section 3 of DOMA,I simply don't see any way it survives. Whether it will be struck down 5-4 or 6-3 is another matter entirely but even there,we are not likely to see a broad ruling.
If DOMA is struck down however,pending lawsuits in NJ,HI,NV and OR will have a much stronger case to allow gay marriage,as civil unions will NOT bring full equality.

 

[scream4ever]

Figured I'd try and provide some info since Jockboy87 sadly got fed up and left JUB.
From what I've read so far, there likely isn't going to be a broad ruling on gay marriage bans. The court is most likely going to punt on prop 8. Gay marriage will be brought back to California but it will likely be a mess sorting the legal issues out.
As for Section 3 of DOMA,I simply don't see any way it survives. Whether it will be struck down 5-4 or 6-3 is another matter entirely but even there,we are not likely to see a broad ruling.
If DOMA is struck down however,pending lawsuits in NJ,HI,NV and OR will have a much stronger case to allow gay marriage,as civil unions will NOT bring full equality.

What do you mean by a "mess"? It seems that they're ready to go in California in a matter of days after the ruling. At worst, there may be a handful of clerks who will refuse to issue them if the case is dismissed on standing, but such cases will be short lived and will ultimately fail.

http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2013/06/...ies-for-possible-return-of-same-sex-marriage/

In addition to court battles, striking down DOMA will also help in legislative battles too, since as you said, civil unions and marriage will truly not be equal. In fact, that was likely the main reason for them delaying the House vote for marriage equality in Illinois.

 

[Ninja108]

What do you mean by a "mess"? It seems that they're ready to go in California in a matter of days after the ruling. At worst, there may be a handful of clerks who will refuse to issue them if the case is dismissed on standing, but such cases will be short lived and will ultimately fail.

http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2013/06/...ies-for-possible-return-of-same-sex-marriage/

In addition to court battles, striking down DOMA will also help in legislative battles too, since as you said, civil unions and marriage will truly not be equal. In fact, that was likely the main reason for them delaying the House vote for marriage equality in Illinois.

Indeed..and in NJ and Hawaii,the courts ordered either marriage equality or something that would provide full rights. They don't do that already but if DOMA is struck down,the inequality will be even stronger and those civil unions will be upgraded to marriage.

As for the mess in California,it all comes down to how they rule. If they rule there was no standing,then the federal rulings go away as well. Which means it will go back to the state courts to figure it all out.

 

[scream4ever]

Indeed..and in NJ and Hawaii,the courts ordered either marriage equality or something that would provide full rights. They don't do that already but if DOMA is struck down,the inequality will be even stronger and those civil unions will be upgraded to marriage.

As for the mess in California,it all comes down to how they rule. If they rule there was no standing,then the federal rulings go away as well. Which means it will go back to the state courts to figure it all out.

The district court ruling would still stand in California and apply statewide. Olsen and Boise anticipated this as a possible outcome, so they named the state of California as a party in the suit.

 

[Ninja108]

The district court ruling would still stand in California and apply statewide. Olsen and Boise anticipated this as a possible outcome, so they named the state of California as a party in the suit.

I did see that. There are also other cases pending in the 9th circuit,so even IF the court makes the 9th ruling null and void,there are others in the pipeline quickly moving along,and if Section 3 of DOMA is taken out,those cases will be made even stornger for marriage equality.

 

[scream4ever]

I did see that. There are also other cases pending in the 9th circuit,so even IF the court makes the 9th ruling null and void,there are others in the pipeline quickly moving along,and if Section 3 of DOMA is taken out,those cases will be made even stornger for marriage equality.

It's always been a given that the 9th ruling would be void if it's found they don't have standing. The district court ruling would stand though, resulting in Brown and Harris ordering county clerks to begin issuing marriage licenses again. When the Cali state supreme court was hear the standing issue, one judge commented on this. He said that what Olsen and Boise did was a little sneaky, but completely legal.

 

[Ninja108]

It's always been a given that the 9th ruling would be void if it's found they don't have standing. The district court ruling would stand though, resulting in Brown and Harris ordering county clerks to begin issuing marriage licenses again. When the Cali state supreme court was hear the standing issue, one judge commented on this. He said that what Olsen and Boise did was a little sneaky, but completely legal.

The thorny issue would be then if a Republican AG came in,would he or she order them to stop? Dismissing it on standing will make it even messier.
Granted,I'd rather have that then a ruling upholding Prop H8. And as mentioned with the other 9th circuit cases pending,if Section 3 of DOMA is struck down,the seperate and unequalness of civil unions in HI and NV will be made as plain as day.

 

[scream4ever]

The thorny issue would be then if a Republican AG came in,would he or she order them to stop? Dismissing it on standing will make it even messier.
Granted,I'd rather have that then a ruling upholding Prop H8. And as mentioned with the other 9th circuit cases pending,if Section 3 of DOMA is struck down,the seperate and unequalness of civil unions in HI and NV will be made as plain as day.

Considering how high polling for it is in California, any Attorney General running on such a platform would make themselves very unelectable. The court could issue a detailed decision regarding standing though, saying that because the state was named as a party that the ruling is to apply statewide (in fact I think that's what they will do). Regardless, I fully expect in 2014 a formal repeal of Prop 8 will be on the ballot and it will succeed.

 

[Ninja108]

Indeed..as for others,I think it will be smarther to wait until 2016 for them such as in Ohio and Michigian when voter turn out will be higher.

 

[Teddybear71]

What good news from SCOTUS - striking down DOMA's Section 3 and restoring marriage to California! 13 states and counting!

But where does the fight go from here? Is the best course of action to mount an attack on DOMA's Section 2, or simply keep trying to win individual states over? I keep hoping that Florida will be moving towards marriage, since that's where I have family, but I think that will be a LONG time coming, sadly....

Well, Illinois, Oregon or Colorado next? Or maybe New Jersey or Michigan?

 

[TickTockMan]

Well, Illinois, Oregon or Colorado next? Or maybe New Jersey or Michigan?

I am hoping my state gets it together soon.

 

[dragon08]

God I am so happy to hear about DOMA's section 3 getting taken down, We are another step closer I'm just waiting for bigger cases to go through the supreme court and get us all equal rights.

 

[Teddybear71]

Bump!!

Just thought about the wonderful progress equal marriage has made this past year, and who would have thought 19 states would be on board by now?? I'm just wondering where the road goes next - do we still fight for individual states (and which states are next up)? Or do we go for broke and get a national ruling? After all, about 45% of the US population now lives in equality states...

Seeing as how I have family in Florida, I'm really hoping that they get their act together soon! But methinks perhaps Michigan, Colorado and Nevada are first up? Anyone have any grass roots feedback for an interested ex-pat here?

 

[scream4ever]

Thanks for the bump Teddybear! Here are my predictions for the states that will have marriage equality before the Supreme Court likely hands down a favorable ruling in about one year:

Nevada/The Entire 9th Circuit: Federal cases out of Nevada and Idaho are both due to be heard in the 9th Circuit in September. At the very least Nevada will have it by the end of the year, since no one with standing is appealing the case, and very well the entire circuit if the two cases don't get intertwined too badly.

Colorado: A state district judge will hear a case this month. Even with an appeal/stay, it's likely the state supreme court will rule in our favor by year's end.

Florida: Same as Colorado, only their case is being heard next month.

Arkansas: The state issued marriage licenses for one week before the state supreme court granted a stay. They will likely hear the case this fall and issue a ruling by year's end.

Wyoming: A case in state district court is awaiting a trial date. Also, legislation will likely be introduced next year, and while Governor Mead has said he opposes same-sex marriage, he may wish to sign a bill with religious exemptions as opposed to a court order with none.

 

[Kulindahr]

Thanks for the bump Teddybear! Here are my predictions for the states that will have marriage equality before the Supreme Court likely hands down a favorable ruling in about one year:

Nevada/The Entire 9th Circuit: Federal cases out of Nevada and Idaho are both due to be heard in the 9th Circuit in September. At the very least Nevada will have it by the end of the year, since no one with standing is appealing the case, and very well the entire circuit if the two cases don't get intertwined too badly.

Colorado: A state district judge will hear a case this month. Even with an appeal/stay, it's likely the state supreme court will rule in our favor by year's end.

Florida: Same as Colorado, only their case is being heard next month.

Arkansas: The state issued marriage licenses for one week before the state supreme court granted a stay. They will likely hear the case this fall and issue a ruling by year's end.

Wyoming: A case in state district court is awaiting a trial date. Also, legislation will likely be introduced next year, and while Governor Mead has said he opposes same-sex marriage, he may wish to sign a bill with religious exemptions as opposed to a court order with none.

Thanks for the list. I wasn't aware of the Wyoming one.

 

[scream4ever]

Of course there could be some surprises if Republican governors/attorney generals do what Corbett did and simply not appeal the rulings when they come down in our favor (I could potentially see this happening in Wisconsin, where a judge is set to issue a summary judgement ruling at any time).

 

[Kulindahr]

Of course there could be some surprises if Republican governors/attorney generals do what Corbett did and simply not appeal the rulings when they come down in our favor (I could potentially see this happening in Wisconsin, where a judge is set to issue a summary judgement ruling at any time).

That's a tactic that leads to a losing strategy.

 

[scream4ever]

That's a tactic that leads to a losing strategy.

Meaning what exactly?

 

[Alnitak]

Bump!!

Just thought about the wonderful progress equal marriage has made this past year, and who would have thought 19 states would be on board by now?? I'm just wondering where the road goes next - do we still fight for individual states (and which states are next up)? Or do we go for broke and get a national ruling? After all, about 45% of the US population now lives in equality states...

Seeing as how I have family in Florida, I'm really hoping that they get their act together soon! But methinks perhaps Michigan, Colorado and Nevada are first up? Anyone have any grass roots feedback for an interested ex-pat here?

There is very good coverage on this topic in the CE&P forum. I invite you to check it out. As you well know, the current situation in the US is extremely dynamic to the point that week-old information is usually out of date. We are in a slow spot at the moment, so it is a good time to recap and review some of the upcoming events.

23 states are being sued by unmarried couples whom were denied licenses, and another eight states are being sued for various marriage-related issues. One state, North Dakota, is the last state with no such lawsuit but that is soon to change. Normally, judges will hold a court date, but every now and again they surprise us with a spontaneous ruling. Any of the remaining states could go at any moment after briefs are submitted.

Court dates are scheduled in Colorado (June 16), Louisiana (June 25), Florida (July 2), and Wisconsin (August 25). In addition, the US Courts of Appeals for the 6th and 9th Circuits will be hearing several cases later in the summer, August 6 and in September, respectively. We also are waiting on decisions from the 4th and 10th circuits. Nobody can predict how many states will not appeal, except Nevada is not expected to appeal the eventual decision in Sevcik v. Sandoval before the 9th Circuit. A decision in that case should come by October.

Pending decisions from the 4th and 10th circuits are within a few weeks of the average turnaround time, and could come down at any moment. There probably will be some grace periods for rehearing, and then they will be ready for appeal to the US Supreme Court hopefully by the new term in October. There is no reason why nationwide marriage equality will not occur beyond June 2015.

Besides the federal court cases, there are four states with state-level lawsuits, including Arkansas, Florida, Colorado, and Wyoming.

I have included a map of the federal courts of appeals mentioned above for reference.

 

[Kulindahr]

Meaning what exactly?

They decide not to appeal in order to keep the case from going higher. But that requires that every governor go along. So as a tactic, it can keep neighboring states from being covered in a decision that requires two-person marriage equality, but as a strategy it is guaranteed to lose, for two reasons: one, every time it is done, that's one more state that can be cited to show the direction the Union is going; two, there are already cases in the federal pipeline and one is eventually going to get to SCOTUS.