How Trump could bring World War III [MERGED]

[kallipolis]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

And according to Putin, that means we're getting ready to invade Russia.

A majority of Russians believe him. It's how he keeps them stirred up and dependent so he can pursue active measures against us.

That's for Russian domestic consumption, with Putin's awareness that Russians are easily excited by perceptions that The West has designs on Russia. The Kremlin understands that no one in The West has any interest in Russia apart from buying its oil, and gas that is flowing into European countries every day.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

Russia's military resources are inadequate to the task, with its intervention in Syria evidence of its military shortcomings.

Crimea is a majority Russian region that includes its Black Sea fleet base, that The Kremlin perceived (incorrectly, in my opinion) to be under threat by Uranian nationalists. The invasion of the Republic of Georgia provided Russia with victory, but also exposed its pitiful military inadequacies. Estonia, and the other Baltic states are of no consequence to Russia despite a perception among a few military strategists that they represent some sort of target for Russia.

Turkey buys most of its fuel, and gas from Russia, and has over the past twenty years developed a close trading relationship with Russia that has benefitted both nations. With the current extreme cold weather conditions sweeping through The Balkans, and most of Eastern Europe there is good reason to maintain close trading ties with Russia...if only to keep warm. Snow in Athens, and most of Greece over the last few days with temperatures in northern Greece dropping to minus 18 celsius. Greece also depends on Russian gas, with a pipeline extending from Russia to Alexandropouli, in north eastern Greece.

Trading relations with Russia are beneficial to Russia's economy, as well for those of us who receive Russian supplied oil, and gas.

I may also add that Germany is also a large customer of Russian oil, and gas.

Germany is why Putin thinks Russia can "take back" Estonia: he thinks Germany will fail to step up to honor the NATO commitment, and as a result NATO will disintegrate. Since much of the rest of NATO depends on his oil, he thinks they'll cave if Germany fails to lead.

As for perceptions, it's the perception of people in the Baltic countries that Putin means to add them to his empire. Sweden apparently thinks so, too; they're moving forces up to counter any games he might play at their expense.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

BTW, I saw Trump being a dimwit again on this topic, with a D from me in reading comprehension: in response to people's concerns about how friendly his Sec State nominee is with Putin and Russia, he said it's good to have friendly relations with Russia, totally missing the difference between personal bias and international relations.

Putin has been pissed ever since he was excluded from international efforts a number of years back because of Russia's brutal approach to 'making peace'. So he's used Ukraine and Syria to weaken NATO, and is playing games in the Baltic now. If Trump can really get friendly relations with Russia in a way that doesn't compromise NATO and gets Russia to grow up and behave, more power to him. But he's unpredictable enough he could stumble us all into a position where Putin orders the use of a tactical nuke, and after that there's no telling how Trump might react -- abandon Europe, launch a major strike, who knows?

 

[kallipolis]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

Germany is why Putin thinks Russia can "take back" Estonia: he thinks Germany will fail to step up to honor the NATO commitment, and as a result NATO will disintegrate. Since much of the rest of NATO depends on his oil, he thinks they'll cave if Germany fails to lead.

As for perceptions, it's the perception of people in the Baltic countries that Putin means to add them to his empire. Sweden apparently thinks so, too; they're moving forces up to counter any games he might play at their expense.

The Kremlin's success is clearly evidenced by seeding paranoia, and fear among those who are easily scared.

The rational response among NATO countries is to counter The Kremlin's cat, and mouse games with troop reinforcements.

Deterrence is a valuable strategy when dealing with Putin's games.

Were The West really concerned that Putin was serious there would be a massive build up of NATO forces in those NATO countries that are most exposed to Russian aggression. An American armoured brigade transferred to Poland hardly counts as a massive build up, merely a reminder to Putin that his psychological war fare strategy can also be checkmated by superior military forces.

 

[Telstra]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

These Europeans (including Russia) are quite annoying.
They should cooperate and be ONE country (Europe and Russia)

 

[Kabluey]

Germany is why Putin thinks Russia can "take back" Estonia: he thinks Germany will fail to step up to honor the NATO commitment, and as a result NATO will disintegrate. Since much of the rest of NATO depends on his oil, he thinks they'll cave if Germany fails to lead.

As for perceptions, it's the perception of people in the Baltic countries that Putin means to add them to his empire. Sweden apparently thinks so, too; they're moving forces up to counter any games he might play at their expense.

And coincidentally, German intelligence agencies are currently investigating Russian based news disinformation networks that have been spreading false news within Germany during the lead up to their September election.

 

[Stardreamer]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

Yes, but we aren't using Apollo any more -- but we're still using the same stuff in the missile silos!


Some bright teenager could probably write a phone app to do everything needed for those missiles (including rapid re-targetting), and for the price of a box of smart phones all the silos could be upgraded.

And given STRATCOM's, justifiably, extreme paranoia where the reliability and safety of their nuclear systems is concerned and the usual contractor padding expect the price to marked up by 1000%.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

The Kremlin's success is clearly evidenced by seeding paranoia, and fear among those who are easily scared.

The rational response among NATO countries is to counter The Kremlin's cat, and mouse games with troop reinforcements.

Deterrence is a valuable strategy when dealing with Putin's games.

Were The West really concerned that Putin was serious there would be a massive build up of NATO forces in those NATO countries that are most exposed to Russian aggression. An American armoured brigade transferred to Poland hardly counts as a massive build up, merely a reminder to Putin that his psychological war fare strategy can also be checkmated by superior military forces.

Except that's not the game the Russians are playing. Putin is attacking n multiple fronts, and the response has to address those. His intervention in Syria isn't because he cares at all about Syria, it's to send waves of refugees into NATO to cause disruptions. His seizing territory in Ukraine wasn't about Ukraine, it was about causing disagreement in NATO. And his messing with Estonia is more of the same, as is his subtle threats against Sweden.

He doesn't care about more American forces being moved, except as it allows him to paint America as an aggressor for public consumption. He already knows that with the forces the U.S. already has in Europe NATO could roll to Moscow in three weeks. Indeed he may be even seeking such an attempt, in order to justify use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Troop reinforcement do nothing to counter Putin's real game, which is sowing confusion. For that we have to undo a couple of generations of sloppiness in the West and teach people to value objective truth and liberal Republics.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

And coincidentally, German intelligence agencies are currently investigating Russian based news disinformation networks that have been spreading false news within Germany during the lead up to their September election.

Germany's the other big target: if he can weaken U.S. resolve and Germany resolve, NATO folds.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

These Europeans (including Russia) are quite annoying.
They should cooperate and be ONE country (Europe and Russia)

I refer the North Terran Alliance -- NATO plus Russia.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

And given STRATCOM's, justifiably, extreme paranoia where the reliability and safety of their nuclear systems is concerned and the usual contractor padding expect the price to marked up by 1000%.

Yeah. Obama budgeted a bit over a trillion, but of course that includes all aspects, from the computer systems to communications to the mechanicals to hardening.

 

[frankfrank]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

I'm hearing it being said that we are closer to the possibility of nuclear war, than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

I'm hearing it being said that we are closer to the possibility of nuclear war, than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.

Yes, because many of the safeguards carefully built up during the Cold War are gone. We would in reality be better off to have another Cold War, where both sides are aware that the use of nukes is insanity.

 

[Kabluey]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

Yes, because many of the safeguards carefully built up during the Cold War are gone. We would in reality be better off to have another Cold War, where both sides are aware that the use of nukes is insanity.

Both Putin and Trump are cultist figures with egomaniacal bents. These aren't stable bedmates.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

I just listened to an interview with the outgoing SecDef. One interesting thing he related was how the U.S. has taken opportunities to get Russia involved in cooperation in international affairs, but repeatedly the Russians say one thing and do another. His starkest example was how Putin said they were going into Syria to fight ISIL, but what they've in fact done was hit the moderate rebels hardest while essentially supporting the existing despot.

So with a man who can't be trusted to keep his word in the Kremlin, and a man who can't be trusted to hold a position in the WHite House, we have what could be called a "situation".


Meanwhile, 3500 U.S. troops arrived in Poland with their armor, to stay -- and Russia predictably called it a sign of U.S. expansionism.

 

[Kabluey]

I think Poland will have lobbied hard.
Russia under Putin is displaying it's traditional expansionism. Historically that's been extremely bad for the invaded populaces.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

I think Poland will have lobbied hard.
Russia under Putin is displaying it's traditional expansionism. Historically that's been extremely bad for the invaded populaces.

Ever since Peter the Great Russia has considered that everything east of Germany, and all of Scandinavia, to be rightfully its territory. Putin is just another Tzar (though the past ones would drool over the extent of his security state).

 

[Benvolio]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

I'm hearing it being said that we are closer to the possibility of nuclear war, than at any time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962.

If so, it is Obama who has brought us to this point. Why has he waited until this late in his regime to bring the world this close to conflict? Is he hoping to set Trump up for war? Of course after Jan 20, the democrat media will dishonestly start saying Trump has brought us to the brink, just as this thread does before he is even president. If Trump backs away from obama's brink, democrats will accuse Trump of being too close to Putin.

 

[gsdx]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

From what I've read and heard lately, it is all Trump's doing. What exactly has your demon spawn Obama done? In his two terms, I don't know of any aggressiveness or actions which would lead the world to go to war with the US.

 

[Kulindahr]

Re: How Trump could bring World War III

If so, it is Obama who has brought us to this point. Why has he waited until this late in his regime to bring the world this close to conflict? Is he hoping to set Trump up for war? Of course after Jan 20, the democrat media will dishonestly start saying Trump has brought us to the brink, just as this thread does before he is even president. If Trump backs away from obama's brink, democrats will accuse Trump of being too close to Putin.

OMG, the naivete!

One does not suddenly bring the world closer to nuclear war; this is a process that's been going on since we started repeatedly putting off the updating of our nuclear silos.

And it didn't take any effort on Obama's part, so stop with the conspiracy madness. The problem is that Obama, a community organizer, sees the world as a community just itching to be organized, where democracy will triumph just because it's democracy, and where everyone wants to be free-market capitalists. Meanwhile Putin has other ideas, and has since well before Obama been turning Russia into the world's most thorough security state ever, and extending the tentacles of that police state everywhere he can manage.

And the evidence so far is that Trump is perfectly willing to engage in nuclear brinkmanship, with his response to Putin wanting to strengthen Russia's nuclear force (by which he meant update, not expand) being basically "Bring it on!"