Let's not be too complacent about Hillary's chances

[RandomAccess]

It's still VERY early in the game. Yes, it's looking good for Hillary, but there's plenty of time for her momentum to come to a screaching halt.

Here's an international view from Inquirer.net (Manilla)

Can anyone stop the Clinton bandwagon?

Agence France-Presse
Last updated 10:51am (Mla time) 08/19/2007

WASHINGTON--Powered by polished debate showings, gaping opinion poll leads, and a pitch-perfect political machine, Hillary Clinton seems to be barnstorming towards the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination.

Nearly five months before first caucus and primary elections, Clinton's near blemish-free campaign is outpacing rivals Barack Obama and John Edwards.

"If she continues to campaign without making a major mistake, it's hard to see how anybody beats her," said Cary Covington, professor of political science at the University of Iowa.

"It is a lot like a chess match, and she has the superior board position."

Yet, US history is littered with the figurative graves of past front-runners. At the equivalent stage of the 2004 race, Senator Joseph Lieberman led national Democratic polls and Howard Dean was top in key states.

Both campaigns quickly fizzled.

So, there is still time for Clinton to make a killer error, or for one of her rivals to catch fire.-snip-

I remember, for instance, meeting Gary Hart and thinking he was the salvation for Democratic politics!

 

[Lostlover]

I'm kinda glad she is in the lead now. The front runner never usually ends out on top.

Also, "complacent" i the wrong word. Probably depressed would be better.

 

[RandomAccess]

I disagree. -snip- Rejoice in our good fortune, then, at the appropriate time, break out the brass knuckles and tire chains for the coming rumble with the geriatric GOPPERS.

Thanks, Alf! Best laugh I've had today!

I'm kinda glad she is in the lead now. The front runner never usually ends out on top.

Also, "complacent" i the wrong word. Probably depressed would be better.

Which is it? Never? Or usually?
So, you've got a problem with her. Care to enumerate?

 

[chance1]

^T We need a second politics forum, one for Emotive Politics, the sort of politics that make no sense but come from the so-called "heart." Chancella is a leader in that field, LL a distant second.

yeah - who needs heart?

LOL

U know a lotta good stuff comes from the heart - the gut

A lotta good stuff

I would argue Alfie that u way overthink things

And r extremely negative - glass is 1/2 empty

I think head + heart = THE ANSWER

sue me

 

[letme]

let us relish the fact that ANY of the Dems running could beat the pudding out of the Ten Corpses of the GOP.

So you want lettuce & relish on your hot dog ? Dontchawknow, that is a Chicago style wienie ? Never had lettuce with a wiener.I would prefer having my cake and eating it then having Jell-o Pudding

 

[lancelva]

As President Clinton always says, "Never look past the next election because you might not get past the next election."

The polls in Iowa are close, but the Iowa caucus is something that pollsters still have a hard time predicting and polling. We won't know until the night of the caucus.

 

[letme]

Lance, Does Iowa live up to the hype that it is,and has been for years ? The butterflies in the belly that both sides feel ? As well as NH ?

What is the town in NH that always has the 1st results and has never been wrong in their selection on the 2nd Tuesday ?(well maybe almost never)

 

[lancelva]

Lance, Does Iowa live up to the hype that it is,and has been for years ? The butterflies in the belly that both sides feel ? As well as NH ?

For a national frontrunner, winning Iowa will practically seal the deal. It gives enough momentum and media coverage to carry you through the rest of the primary. New Hampshire--which conducts an actual primary--is an important fall-back if you lose Iowa. The results in New Hampshire are more predictable with polling--but an accurate poll would have to be conducted after the Iowa caucus. The addition of the Nevada caucus on the Saturday before the New Hampshire primary also adds an interesting twist to the primary calendar. A candidate who wins both states going into to New Hampshire definitely has the big mo'. But if one candidate wins Iowa and another Nevada, New Hampshire could be the deciding vote.

What is the town in NH that always has the 1st results and has never been wrong in their selection on the 2nd Tuesday ?(well maybe almost never)

Claremont, NH, is usually considered the bellwether city for the Democratic nomination. For example, Bill Clinton came in second in New Hampshire (becoming the "Comeback Kid") but he won Claremont by a pretty good margin and went on to win the nomination.

 

[khushibagh]

I don't know. The head says Republicans have done a pathetic job so 2008 should be a Democratic year. The heart says Hillary will make a good President despite her opportunistic stance on Iraq. The gut says that there is no way that Hillary can win and that in 15 months the 80% will be about how they lost the White House and maybe the House of Representatives as well.

 

[lancelva]

The gut says that there is no way that Hillary can win and that in 15 months the 80% will be about how they lost the White House and maybe the House of Representatives as well.

Don't fall for the spin that Hillary is "unelectable." Just a couple of examples from two 2004 "red states."

Clinton Leads GOP Hopefuls in Florida

Senator Hillary Clinton leads all Republican hopefuls in the race for Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes. The Sunshine State cast its votes for the Republicans in each of George W. Bush’s election victories. If those Electoral Votes were cast for the Democrats in 2008, it would be a huge swing and make a Republican victory difficult to achieve.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone polls in Florida shows Clinton leading Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani by five, Fred Thompson by 13, John McCain by 14, and Mitt Romney by 22. Perhaps most significantly, Clinton’s support tops the 50% mark against all the candidates other than Giuliani (she leads Giuliani 49% to 44%).

Clinton Enjoys Big Lead in Arkansas

New York Senator Hillary Clinton was First Lady of Arkansas before she was First Lady of the United States. That background puts her in a good position to capture the six Electoral College votes Arkansas will cast in Election 2008.

Clinton leads all Republican challengers in Arkansas by huge double digit margins. The closest GOP hopeful is Rudy Giuliani, but he trails Clinton by eighteen percentage points, 55% to 37%. Clinton leads Fred Thompson by nineteen points (55% to 36%), John McCain by 23 points (56% to 33%), and Mitt Romney by 32 points (60% to 32%).

Among women voters in Arkansas, none of the Republican candidates tops 34% support and none come within 20 points of Clinton. Clinton also leads all the Republicans among male voters in her former home state, although by somewhat smaller margins.

Overall, 65% of Arkansas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 33% say the opposite.

 

[letme]

Thanks Lance.

 

[Hard4cumshots]

I think Clinton is one of the better choices as a Presidential Candidate. Right now the US is in turmoil as far as international and domestic issues and we really can't afford to elect someone that needs a learning curve (Obama).

Clinton knows heads of state, she knows people in DC, she probably already knows people that would be the best fit for her cabinet/advisors/etc. She was active in the administration before Bush, so she knows the inner workings of the white house and I think could get things done faster and efficently.

And given the increased number of women leaders in the world...maybe create better relationships

I wouldn't mind a Biden/Clinton ticket

 

[chance1]

I think Clinton is one of the better choices as a Presidential Candidate. Right now the US is in turmoil as far as international and domestic issues and we really can't afford to elect someone that needs a learning curve (Obama).

Clinton knows heads of state, she knows people in DC, she probably already knows people that would be the best fit for her cabinet/advisors/etc. She was active in the administration before Bush, so she knows the inner workings of the white house and I think could get things done faster and efficently.

And given the increased number of women leaders in the world...maybe create better relationships

I wouldn't mind a Biden/Clinton ticket

love the idea of Biden as running mate

he's solid - smart - adult - passionate - pragmatic but not at the expense of his core values

I think Hillary is unstoppable

only one that can stop her is .............

drumroll ..........

her advisors

 

[Hard4cumshots]

love the idea of Biden as running mate
he's solid - smart - adult - passionate - pragmatic but not at the expense of his core values
I think Hillary is unstoppable
only one that can stop her is .............
drumroll ..........
her advisors

I think the question that NEEDS to be asked of all candidates Rep or Dem is if they would do something to undo the "freedom of information act" and give us back some symbience of our civil liberties.

I'd also like to know who they'd each pick as a running mate (Biden/Clinton) is who I'm hoping for...I really grew to respect Biden when he was on Real Time with Bill maher a few times. He knows the issues and he's more informed than others, he doesn't just spew some soundbite.

After Obama's comment about Pakistan that pushed me over the edge b/c he really doesn't know what he's talking about...if you invade Pakistan Iran will be on the offensive and also you have to worry about the radicals in Kashmir and India...it's a VERY delicate area. Yes Musharef is corrupt and Pakistan is harboring the Taliban, but Bush should've stayed in Afghanistan instead of going over to Iraq, we all know that.

 

[AngelBoy]

I think Clinton is one of the better choices as a Presidential Candidate. Right now the US is in turmoil as far as international and domestic issues and we really can't afford to elect someone that needs a learning curve (Obama).

Clinton knows heads of state, she knows people in DC, she probably already knows people that would be the best fit for her cabinet/advisors/etc. She was active in the administration before Bush, so she knows the inner workings of the white house and I think could get things done faster and efficently.

And given the increased number of women leaders in the world...maybe create better relationships

I wouldn't mind a Biden/Clinton ticket

Hillary will be president is she can get the Democrat nomination

Actually anyone will be president next time that is not associated with Bush.

Why Hillary deserves a chance is that she knows what she's doing

Will she get it? - Probably - but not certain - but she's the best person for the job

 

[iman]

I have always liked Joe Biden and I think he belongs right where he is - in the Senate. He would bring nothing to the ticket and has no business being Sec of State as long as Richard Holbrooke is waiting in the wings.

Clinton needs someone from the west or mid west on the ticket. Maybe Richardson, but he has liabilities.

 

[Andreus]

i vascilate back and forth about who i want to see as a running mate for hillary

i dont know about biden

i think edwards would be the better choice for number two on the ticket, but his dear wife is burning alot of bridges for me

i get the impression that he is sending her out to jump hillary because he doesnt want to appear to be the negative candidate, but he sees that she is largely unchallenged by everyone but Bush and the Pentagon right now

when obama tried it he learned how hazardous it is to a campaign

 

[iman]

I always thought Biden was a mediocre senator and someone who beats his gums too God damned much. I mean, the guy has waged a largely unsuccessful war trying to repopulate his dome with hair plugs and shit, which begs the question: if Biden can't win the baldness war, how on Earth can he win the war against al-Queda? Liberals need to ponder this question long and hard, no matter how philosophically painful, no matter how intellectually vapid.

I am sure if Biden had a position in a new administration we would be reading endless posts about his hair plugs (are they growing inward?) parroted from Murdochian sources.

It's the FOX contribution to political dialogue.

 

[Andreus]

lol

well i doubt that biden will get the nodd

he is needed to maintain the senate majority

it would be interesting to see hillary take the presidency and the senate fall into the hands of the republicans

i would honestly prefer a third party to take that house

as much as i love the democratic party, i am not sure that any one party can be trusted with control of all three... house, senate and whitehouse

but the republicans are so tainted by the Bush administrations contempt for the american public and their wishes that they simply are no longer an option

 

[iman]

lol

i would honestly prefer a third party to take that house

We don't even have a second party. The Republicans are just a conglomeration of misfits, regionalists, rascists and reactionaries.