NO Henny Penny, there is no impending depression

[BostonPirate]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEHNtqFt9Ck[/ame]

Economic indicators are still in growth, albeit slow. A lower jobs posting can result from a great many things and, while it may seem alarming, this actually marks the 8th month of growth, and when we reach nine, by the science of Economics, the recession will be over.

Just as an exercise, I wonder if it would be possible to figure out just how many teachers, civil servants, and policemen have been laid off due to the ridiculous cuts the republicans have engaged in.

They do nothing for the economy and in many instances cost more than they cut. Discretionary budget cuts wont fix ANYTHING.

ITs all kabuki theatre right now from the fomenting right still smarting from getting the shit kicked out of them in NY26 due to their Medicare problem.

Lets just call this bullshit what it is. The republicans have been trying to sabotage the nation ever since Limbaugh said he hoped Obama failed to fix the economy. Every marginal report that comes out is used in a propagandist fashion and if the fucktard republicans would put half as much energy into solving the nation as they are putting into right wing social engineering, the economy would be fixed and the filibusters would never have happened.

No one is buying the political smut.

The Economy is slowing a bit and it was predicted that the cuts would do that. Anyone saying anything else is wishing harm on the USA just for political gain.

 

[JB3]

You missed the thread already discussing this.

 

[BostonPirate]

no I decided to not participate in that trainwreck.

the last page I read first and it was so bizarre the thread was useless.

 

[JB3]

Just as an exercise, I wonder if it would be possible to figure out just how many teachers, civil servants, and policemen have been laid off due to the ridiculous cuts the republicans have engaged in.

In Illinois there were tens of thousands laid off due to the Democratic governor and legislature.

Lets just call this bullshit what it is. The republicans have been trying to sabotage the nation ever since Limbaugh said he hoped Obama failed to fix the economy. Every marginal report that comes out is used in a propagandist fashion and if the fucktard republicans would put half as much energy into solving the nation as they are putting into right wing social engineering, the economy would be fixed and the filibusters would never have happened.

No one is buying the political smut.

The Economy is slowing a bit and it was predicted that the cuts would do that. Anyone saying anything else is wishing harm on the USA just for political gain.

'A bit'? The economy hit a fucking brick wall. And people like Robert Reich are extremely concerned that the double-dip that they've been warning about is actually going to happen.

 

[BostonPirate]

Bobby is so cute, isn't he? Massachusetts boy.

This brick wall was preceded by a better than expected growth the month before.

The stock market is dipping right now due to greeces bond reduction having a slow ripple effect, and quite frankly, the game of chicken over the Debt ceiling is making foreign investors nervous.

There is no meltdown. In one month You will see that I am right. Summer and then back to school spending will spike the market up as retail industry stock comes back in play. That will also boost hiring and spending.

 

[JB3]

I realize the other thread was rather unusual. I agree. Those who claim that there is an impending depression are only doing it for political reasons. They aren't interested in the facts. They want the black guy out of office. It's really that simple.

Economic recovery is never uniform. In this sense, most sectors of the economy are still growing, and some are not. Those who want Obama out, will be keen to seize on whatever strawman argument they can use.

There is no double dip. The economy hasn't hit the brakes.

And the republican apologists on here will try to spin this whatever way they can, even though their arguments are NOT based on any facts.

And yours is? The arguments are based on economic data. And it proves that something very serious is currently going on. And that a double-dip is more likely now than it was last month.

 

[BostonPirate]

And yours is? The arguments are based on economic data. And it proves that something very serious is currently going on. And that a double-dip is more likely now than it was last month.

No its not.

Its political mumbo jumbo

The truth is that there was still growth, be it moderate, and the market simply cannot gain every day and every week. It needs to take breath and shed the dead weight every so often. We had record growth for quite a white and the oil stockpile shows that this correction was coming. We all knew it six weeks ago.

We talked about it here in a thread.

 

[JB3]

No its not.

Its political mumbo jumbo

The truth is that there was still growth, be it moderate, and the market simply cannot gain every day and every week. It needs to take breath and shed the dead weight every so often. We had record growth for quite a white and the oil stockpile shows that this correction was coming. We all knew it six weeks ago.

We talked about it here in a thread.

'Moderate'. That growth wasn't moderate, it was pathetic.

 

[BostonPirate]

Yeah I agree with you Boston, there is no chance of a double dip, nor is there a chance of going back in recession. Our arguments are based on the present information on the economy Some will persist with the same old tired arguments in order to get Obama out of office. Funny some gay republicans are doing it on this very forum... they want people in office that will take away their rights. How productive is that?

I am a really conservative economist. It comes down to the numbers and the definition.

There is a stock market occurence known as the summer doldrums...

The reduced volume results in greater volatility because the transactions that are completed are going to have a bigger impression on the price of the stock. If you wanted to sell 1,000 shares of a thinly traded bank stock in North Carolina, the order may not have a huge effect on the equity's price if the company trades an average of 100,000 shares each day. If, however, trading volume falls 30% in the summer to 70,000, your order is going to have a more powerful influence on the price of the stock by pressuring it to fall as you sell your holdings.

In Wall Street lore, the summer doldrums officially end after labor day in September

http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/beginnerscorner/qt/summerdoldrums.htm

 

[BostonPirate]

'Moderate'. That growth wasn't moderate, it was pathetic.

if there is growth then it is growth. If it is a little growth it is considered moderate.

 

[Kulindahr]

We may get that double-dip, we may not. But we certainly aren't heading into a depression.

And we won't -- if we can get our act together before China's game comes apart.

 

[BostonPirate]

We may get that double-dip, we may not. But we certainly aren't heading into a depression.

And we won't -- if we can get our act together before China's game comes apart.

The housing market dipped, but that could be fixed if the republicans would agree to Ms Warrens appointment, and the new regulatory agency could start to fix the housing mess.

Heres a report on the jobs lost on local and state levels due to cuts there....

State and local governments are forecast to shed up to 110,000 jobs in the third quarter, the first time the blood-letting has risen into the triple digits, according to IHS Global Insight.
"We're on a downward path," said Greg Daco, principal U.S. economist at IHS. "It's not looking good."
State and local government employment has been a drag on the economy all year, averaging a loss of 23,000 jobs a month over the past three months. Meanwhile, the private sector has created an average of 180,000 a month during the same period.
In May, public employment shrunk by 29,000 jobs, mostly at the state and local level, while businesses created 83,000 jobs, the Labor Department reported Friday. All told, the sector has lost 510,000 positions since its peak in August 2008.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/05/news/economy/state_local_layoffs/index.htm?iid=Popular

There was a slow ease back built into the stimulus package, but it was calibrated and when the republicans started cutting stupid shit, this event happened.

 

[Kulindahr]

"Pathetic growth" is something the entire world is going to have to get used to eventually. For developed nations, economic growth to a large degree depends on population growth. It also depends on relatively easy access to raw materials at fairly steady prices.

Neither of those can be depended on for the future.

 

[Jack Springer]

We've been a recession for several months now.

 

[JB3]

The housing market dipped, but that could be fixed if the republicans would agree to Ms Warrens appointment, and the new regulatory agency could start to fix the housing mess.

Heres a report on the jobs lost on local and state levels due to cuts there....



http://money.cnn.com/2011/06/05/news/economy/state_local_layoffs/index.htm?iid=Popular

There was a slow ease back built into the stimulus package, but it was calibrated and when the republicans started cutting stupid shit, this event happened.

'Cutting stupid shit'. You mean attempting to bring out of control state budgets back in line? That's hardly stupid shit. (and you're also neglecting to include that huge numbers of cuts are coming from states like California)

 

[CowboyBob]

The minute Obama was sworn in, the Republicans have been all gloom and doom. They're doing everything to convince the world and themselves that we're spiraling down the abyss and the only thing that can pull us out of it is to vote Republican.

Oh yeah.... we're broke and the only thing that will help us is to kill Medicare, do away with unions and give tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans.

What they forgot is they dropped us down the shithole in the first place.

 

[BostonPirate]

We've been a recession for several months now.

This comment is factually incorrect.

I don't know whether its willful misleading, or just an ordinary inability to accept reality, but it is in no way correct.

sorry buddy,

You are either lying or you are repeating a lie you heard someone tell you.

 

[BostonPirate]

'Cutting stupid shit'. You mean attempting to bring out of control state budgets back in line? That's hardly stupid shit. (and you're also neglecting to include that huge numbers of cuts are coming from states like California)

I dont care where its coming from, the truth is, you have to spend money to make money. That is just how the american economy works.

When you intentionally stop spending in a recovery period you are taking the steam out of the recovery.

If you want a jobs economy, I have been saying for a LONG TIME NOW that it just wont come....

The broken record I know, but almost a year ago I said that we would not get bellow 8.5 to 8.75. The financial and housing sectors are not ever going to get any better. They corrected in the recession, and if the economy cant find a new sector to grow jobs in, this will continue.

 

[BostonPirate]

"Pathetic growth" is something the entire world is going to have to get used to eventually. For developed nations, economic growth to a large degree depends on population growth. It also depends on relatively easy access to raw materials at fairly steady prices.

Neither of those can be depended on for the future.

You hit on one thing that people are not considering, and thats the population expansion in the USA.

We have to add jobs for population growth as well. when you look at raw numbers it presents an innacurate picture.

Thats why last month unemployment upticked a percentage point, but wallstreet soared on the news... they were watching for growth in certain sectors, and adjusting for population.

China will pop its bubble in about three years I think and slide, and thats when the american economy will boom again and jobs will return. It wont be cheaper to have things made in china anymore by then and the futures market will also stabilize.

That points to the possibility of a big american manufacturing growth period by about 2014.

 

[SteveyBoyLA]

The key economic indicator is the unemployment rate in my view. A 9 to 10% rate is going to be Obama's Achilles heal in the election if he does not start demonstrating some bold leadership here. He won't get any help from the GOP. They desperately hope the economy and jobs creation remain in a funk through election day.

This article covers some great points on what a 'Jobs Agenda' would contain to improve economic growth and employment:

Today, as the U.S. recovers from the worst recession since World War II and the global economy continues to absorb the effects of the financial crisis, America has a long-term, potentially intractable problem: How will the U.S. create the millions of jobs needed to reinvigorate our consumer-driven economy? The candidate that can best articulate a program for significant and sustained job creation will likely win the White House on Nov. 6, 2012.

http://economiccrisis.us/2011/05/jobs-agenda/#more-9439

I think this point may be the most important - the need for a full-court press on trade policy:

Focus on trade. With 75 percent of the global economy and almost 90 percent of anticipated economic growth coming from beyond our borders, expanding the U.S.’s share of global trade must be a priority.