NO Henny Penny, there is no impending depression

[BostonPirate]

Who gets mileage out of the unemployment rate does not affect the real fact that the american economy is in an expected slowdown, likely will not double dip, and is now still in a growth period.

We are still in growth.

What do you base your idea on that the unemployment rate is the key to the recovery? once you remove the political implications of course

 

[BostonPirate]

how many jobless recoveries do we need before it starts being a cause for concern?

how many filibusters do we need before its a concern?

How many poor will go hungry before its a concern?

How many children will go without healthcare before its a concern.

Ehhh......

After a while as an american you learn to stop listening to the people screaming that the sky is falling.

When Bush's recession began, no one was making any sounds about the state of affairs... the huge debt and deficit was hardly noticed.

So that was the first deep economic trauma our economy had since the depression, and like the depression, no one saw it coming.

Its never what they are telling you about champ-O

The stuff that gets ya is the stuff you are NOT paying enough attention to, the politicians are ignoring, and the press is burying.

 

[Kulindahr]

The broken record I know, but almost a year ago I said that we would not get bellow 8.5 to 8.75. The financial and housing sectors are not ever going to get any better. They corrected in the recession, and if the economy cant find a new sector to grow jobs in, this will continue.

I have to disagree, on the housing side. It will come around once the obscene excess supply generated by building high-end housing for people who couldn't afford it is soaked up, and once the builders get it into their heads that you can't just build housing for the top income types.

Which will come to pass about two years after the unemployment rate (the real one) drops under 3% and stays there.

 

[Kulindahr]

You hit on one thing that people are not considering, and thats the population expansion in the USA.

We have to add jobs for population growth as well. when you look at raw numbers it presents an innacurate picture.

Thats why last month unemployment upticked a percentage point, but wallstreet soared on the news... they were watching for growth in certain sectors, and adjusting for population.

China will pop its bubble in about three years I think and slide, and thats when the american economy will boom again and jobs will return. It wont be cheaper to have things made in china anymore by then and the futures market will also stabilize.

That points to the possibility of a big american manufacturing growth period by about 2014.

It's already cheaper to get things made next door, in Mexico, than in China -- and is likely to stay that way for quite some time.

I honestly think the bubble is already bursting in China... particularly in its real-estate market. People will still say it's growing, but I think there will be a correction far sooner then three years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...u-s-japan-bubble-levels-chart-of-the-day.html

All depends on what the Chinese leaders are more afraid of: bankruptcy, or revolution. At the moment, they're spending themselves into stability. The really idiotic thing is that by borrowing money from them, we're helping that regime stay in power.

 

[BostonPirate]

how far does rehashing the Bush clusterfucks get us in solving problems?

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jtwXnFkSLA[/ame]

I have to disagree, on the housing side. It will come around once the obscene excess supply generated by building high-end housing for people who couldn't afford it is soaked up, and once the builders get it into their heads that you can't just build housing for the top income types.

Which will come to pass about two years after the unemployment rate (the real one) drops under 3% and stays there.

Too many houses out there unowned to build new houses. People are going to be scooping up valued property for a while before they really start building again.

Housing and real estate are two different creatures. I think you are saying that the real estate market may begin to pick up more value, but....

Theres soooo much product out there, I just cant see the usa as a whole making more of any great ammount that will really help the unemployment rate. Contractors need work for the housing sector to improve.

 

[maxpowr9]

The key economic indicator is the unemployment rate in my view. A 9 to 10% rate is going to be Obama's Achilles heal in the election if he does not start demonstrating some bold leadership here. He won't get any help from the GOP. They desperately hope the economy and jobs creation remain in a funk through election day.

This article covers some great points on what a 'Jobs Agenda' would contain to improve economic growth and employment:


http://economiccrisis.us/2011/05/jobs-agenda/#more-9439

I think this point may be the most important - the need for a full-court press on trade policy:

That may be your view but it is totally wrong. You want this big boy here if you want your economic indicators. You do not just look at the temperature to tell the weather.

For future references: if you want to quote any economic statistics [removed by moderator] because some "periodical" twists the "facts", use: http://www.nber.org/releases/.

 

[JayHawk]

Just curious if anyone has noticed the price of things recently in retail stores?

I dont know many things about the economy. I have admitted it before and will willingly do so again.

However I just traveled across the country. Stayed a bit in Cali, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and then finally here where I landed in Kansas.

I dont know if it is the summer doldrums or major mismanagement on behalf of just about every business I shop at currently. However big or small the slash of prices is the biggest I have ever witnessed. The staffs are less and the merchandise is being thrown out the door. Obviously this is going to be very area specific so New England and Middle Cali is probably not paying a dime less than before. I understand gas an d food are way up by there prices also. So the consumerism is being reshaped or having a correction. People are diverting from one want to meet their needs I would imagine.

Just in example, between JCP, Banana Republic, GAP, Hollister and Lowes I have saved probably right around 2000 in the last two months. I am a regular shopper and i really cant remember prices being this steep. For JCP everything is in the 80% off range. I would not be surprised to see a CH13 filing for them soon.

SO I would agree we are not headed down necessarily. We are at a steady struggle upward. Obama SHOULD be able to demonstrate this and become President again. I just wonder if after eight years (or more like six and a half) if our slow struggle up will be demonstrable or if Obama's chosen one will lose their ass based off 75% political manipulation and 25% reality.

BTW I believe that is exactly what happened to the Republican chances...that and McCain being the option.

 

[JB3]

I dont care where its coming from, the truth is, you have to spend money to make money. That is just how the american economy works.

When you intentionally stop spending in a recovery period you are taking the steam out of the recovery.

If you want a jobs economy, I have been saying for a LONG TIME NOW that it just wont come....

The broken record I know, but almost a year ago I said that we would not get bellow 8.5 to 8.75. The financial and housing sectors are not ever going to get any better. They corrected in the recession, and if the economy cant find a new sector to grow jobs in, this will continue.

Here's the problem though; you're saying its all republicans etc., but California and Illinois aren't exactly Republican paradises, now are they?

 

[JB3]

Just curious if anyone has noticed the price of things recently in retail stores?

I dont know many things about the economy. I have admitted it before and will willingly do so again.

However I just traveled across the country. Stayed a bit in Cali, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and then finally here where I landed in Kansas.

I dont know if it is the summer doldrums or major mismanagement on behalf of just about every business I shop at currently. However big or small the slash of prices is the biggest I have ever witnessed. The staffs are less and the merchandise is being thrown out the door. Obviously this is going to be very area specific so New England and Middle Cali is probably not paying a dime less than before. I understand gas an d food are way up by there prices also. So the consumerism is being reshaped or having a correction. People are diverting from one want to meet their needs I would imagine.

Just in example, between JCP, Banana Republic, GAP, Hollister and Lowes I have saved probably right around 2000 in the last two months. I am a regular shopper and i really cant remember prices being this steep. For JCP everything is in the 80% off range. I would not be surprised to see a CH13 filing for them soon.

SO I would agree we are not headed down necessarily. We are at a steady struggle upward. Obama SHOULD be able to demonstrate this and become President again. I just wonder if after eight years (or more like six and a half) if our slow struggle up will be deomstrable or if Obama's chosen one will lose their ass based off 75% political manipulation and 25% reality.

BTW I believe that is exactly what happened to the Republican chances...that and McCain being the option.

Noticed that today. Went to go buy some undershirts and they're a good 20-30% more than they were at this time last year.

 

[BostonPirate]

That may be your view but it is totally wrong. You want this big boy here if you want the whole lot of indicators. You do not just look at the temperature to tell the weather.

Thats an interesting read

I think people forget that the stock market picks up when futures trend up. Oil company stocks value and devalue on the price of oil. That effect tends to negate the effect in many ways.

Thanks for posting that paper.

That real consumption percentage is what keeps troubling me. People need more expendable money in the lower and middle class to make jobs come back, IMO.

 

[chance1]

The economy is not good

I travel all throughout the US - major cities - and i always chat with people who live and work there

Wash DC is the only place doing well - hmmmm

Just saying

Guess when ur in charge u will say anything to support .......

The guy in charge

And BP - quit dominating ur thread

I know u prob went thru withdrawal being away and all but take it slow

Just saying

 

[JB3]

So this is a jobless recovery?

Yes, it is.

 

[BostonPirate]

Just curious if anyone has noticed the price of things recently in retail stores?

I dont know many things about the economy. I have admitted it before and will willingly do so again.

However I just traveled across the country. Stayed a bit in Cali, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and then finally here where I landed in Kansas.

I dont know if it is the summer doldrums or major mismanagement on behalf of just about every business I shop at currently. However big or small the slash of prices is the biggest I have ever witnessed. The staffs are less and the merchandise is being thrown out the door. Obviously this is going to be very area specific so New England and Middle Cali is probably not paying a dime less than before. I understand gas an d food are way up by there prices also. So the consumerism is being reshaped or having a correction. People are diverting from one want to meet their needs I would imagine.

Just in example, between JCP, Banana Republic, GAP, Hollister and Lowes I have saved probably right around 2000 in the last two months. I am a regular shopper and i really cant remember prices being this steep. For JCP everything is in the 80% off range. I would not be surprised to see a CH13 filing for them soon.

SO I would agree we are not headed down necessarily. We are at a steady struggle upward. Obama SHOULD be able to demonstrate this and become President again. I just wonder if after eight years (or more like six and a half) if our slow struggle up will be demonstrable or if Obama's chosen one will lose their ass based off 75% political manipulation and 25% reality.

BTW I believe that is exactly what happened to the Republican chances...that and McCain being the option.

They are selling through to make space for the new fall inventory.

Its a regular trend, I believe.

 

[BostonPirate]

The economy is not good

I travel all throughout the US - major cities - and i always chat with people who live and work there

Wash DC is the only place doing well - hmmmm

Just saying

Guess when ur in charge u will say anything to support .......

The guy in charge

And BP - quit dominating ur thread

I know u prob went thru withdrawal being away and all but take it slow

Just saying

are we going to have a talk about you telling me and others what to do again?

back off

 

[JB3]

They are selling through to make space for the new fall inventory.

Its a regular trend, I believe.

That doesn't happen until July. Fall inventory doesn't ship until late July/early august.

 

[Kulindahr]

how many jobless recoveries do we need before it starts being a cause for concern?

how many filibusters do we need before its a concern?

How many poor will go hungry before its a concern?

How many children will go without healthcare before its a concern.

Ehhh......

​

 

[JB3]

I was just waiting for this one... the economy is not good because... you say so? You've been listening to too much of Palin. So what does she have to say on this matter? Yeah, I guess your personal perspective is so enlightening. I talk to people too and they say otherwise.

And BP can post as he please.

And to answer my own prior question, no this is NOT a jobless recovery. Anyone who says it is quite mistaken!

If this isn't a jobless recovery, then where are the jobs? For it not to be a jobless recovery, the economy has to be creating jobs, and it isn't.

 

[BostonPirate]

That doesn't happen until July. Fall inventory doesn't ship until late July/early august.

if it ships in july/august then they need to sell it in june/july to make space... right?

what month is it?

 

[JayHawk]

They are selling through to make space for the new fall inventory.

Its a regular trend, I believe.

Dude I have been shopping like a triple expresso, tiny dog, botox, suburban housewife (on my own money) for a long freakin time and I am used to the sales. I have seen many a cycle in the last 20 years. As I said never so huge a break.

I think we have one more correction coming on a grand scale. Too many foreclosures are still not finalized. Tons of property sits empty. Cheesy ass jobs arent around so those figures wont change much.

It needs a tipper in one direction or another. It will either be positive with innovation which has always spawned our past or negative with something failing huge on a world scale. not us necessarily but we will feel the roll.

As far as consumerism goes the donkeys have it ...sorta.... since the confidence factor is rising for the last two years. only dropping significantly corresponding to the Arab Spring which jacked oil.

Link to current consumer confidence chart for last few years

I think right now it is still anyones ballgame.

 

[BostonPirate]

If this isn't a jobless recovery, then where are the jobs? For it not to be a jobless recovery, the economy has to be creating jobs, and it isn't.

Obama Created More Jobs in 2010 than Bush Did in 8 Years

http://ecopolitology.org/2011/01/12/obama-created-more-jobs-in-2010-than-bush-did-in-8-years/

Your inability to understand what question to ask shows your complete lack of understanding of the employment issue here.