I can't believe I'm saying this, but given the [Republicans'] ongoing attempts to thoroughly bankrupt the country and turn us into a Latin American variety economy with a handful of plutocrats and a plethora of peons, I seriously hope [Barack] Obama does a Lyndon Johnson on whoever the [GOP] candidate is, and carries enough House members with him to kick the Republicans back to minority status.
And if I may dream... I'd like to see Obama propose restoring the CCC.
You may not believe some of what "
I [am about to be] saying"…
This
could happen: An incumbent president wins re-election, and also flips control by the opposition party of the U.S. House of Representatives back to his party. It hasn't happened since 1948
Harry Truman ["
Do Nothing Congress!"]. (Truman also flipped the U.S. Senate back to the Democrats.) The midwest is where it would most critically happen (just as it did in 2006 and, perhaps more immediately memorable, in 2010), plus Virginia, some choice districts in the southeast, perhaps Arkansas as well (which carried for all Democratic presidents prior to Barack Obama and would've backed Hillary Clinton!). It's not a bet I'm yet willing to either make … or muster much belief in for such potential (thanks to gerrymandering;
hello, Texas!).
At this point, I suspect Obama win re-election along the lines of
Dwight Eisenhower,
Bill Clinton, and
George W. Bush—less than 5% additional support with his national margin; a little color-trading of states (with scenario of Indiana flipping to the
Mitt Romney-like-tiered Republican challenger; Missouri, Montana, and Georgia—narrow misses for Obama [who won the female vote in all three]—flipping to the president)—or we could see the GOP nominate a
Sarah Palin-like-tiered
bomb (in such case, retainment of all blues from 2008, a doubled national margin, and a resulting massive landslide that would shoot Obama's electoral votes modestly or well past 400).
On the flip side of the history of
Republican-vs.-Democrat (dating back to Election 1856), I suppose Obama could become the third party-pickup president (flipping the White House from D to R or, in Obama's 2008 example, R to D) to lose bid for re-election. (The other three: 1888
Grover Cleveland; 1892
Benjamin Harrison, who unseated Cleveland four years earlier only to turn around and become unseated by the non-consecutive two-termer; and then there's 1980
Jimmy Carter. But the two Ds were flipped out during a "realignment" that did
not favor their party.)
It would be interesting to see which [
2012] Republican comes up with the message that [
could?] really
move the electorate back to Team Red; and to do so just four years after the party's last abomination—George W. Bush—couldn't leave office fast enough. (His last two years in office never saw the 43rd president with a job-approval score past 39% from Gallup—20s% and 30s% were the constant.)
Not recalling whether I've posted this here before: I suspect we're in another realignment presidential period—only this one would favor the Democrats, which just about all of us will not recognize.
Consider the nine/ten cycles of these presidential elections:
1860–1892 • Republican (just one Democrat, Cleveland, in 1884 and 1892)
1896–1928 • Republican (just one Democrat, Woodrow Wilson, in 1912 and 1916)
1932–1964 • Democratic (just one Republican, Eisenhower, in 1952 and 1956)
1968–2004 • Republican (two individual Democrats from a 10-cycle period: Carter, in 1976; Clinton, in 1992 and 1996)
And now we can wonder about…
2008–204? • Democratic [in question, of course, but as crazy as it may be to "look into the future," one may also review the last 150-plus years—always won by an R or D—and "why" these realignments" manifested…]