So, I realize that there is already a thread in the 'entertainment' section covering this, but I think this is, or will soon be, a Hot Topic if there ever was one . . . If mods want to move/merge threads, I won't object . . .
The Official 2006 Academy Awards Thread! Post your predictions, thoughts, rants, etc.
The Oscars will air on ABC at 8:30PM est / 5:30PM pacific, with commentary beginning a half hour before.
I'm a total Oscar junkie and long-time fan of OscarWatch.com and its lovely and brilliant editor Sasha Stone, and InContention.com and the brilliant Kris Tapley, etc . . . so here goes, with my will/should/spoiler picks as well as (brief) commentary. I'm sure I'll have more to say as things progress, but here's my basic rundown of the main categories...
Best Pic: Little Miss Sunshine (will win) /
The Queen (should win) /
The Departed (spoiler)
We haven't seen a race this wide open in years. Anything could spoil. I stared at my screen for 10 minutes before switching LMS and Departed. And yet Babel (Golden Globe winner) could veeeery easily take it. But there has been such a surge for LMS these past few months . . . especially with the PGA, SAG, and Ind. Spirit wins. As SS says, nobody knows anything.
The Queen is my pick, and while it seems like the weak fifth pic, if the vote splits, it could pull through. Iwo Jima could somehow ride the perennial Clint wave to victory among a split vote, even if Warners totally fucked up its distrib (and that of its companion piece). But if there's an outpouring of Marty lovin', The Departed could easily take it. And honestly, I wouldn't be sad if any of the nominees this year won. [Unlike last year *primal scream*
]
Best Director: Martin Scorsese (should/will win; spoiler:
Iñárritu)
Throw Marty a bone for chrissakes. It was a great flick and he deserves it. Sure, you owe it to him after all these years, but moreover, he earned it. And practically speaking, Eastwood's film is has been seen by approximately eleven people; The Queen (Frears) is perhaps too 'small' or too British; Babel (Iñárritu) is very too devisive; and Greengrass is the odd (fifth) man out....no best pic nom, among other reasons. But if there's a Babel wave . . . who knows.
Best Actress: 
Helen Mirren (will/should; spoiler:
nobody dammit!)
Ok, so some people are tired of her winning everything. I don't care.
The fact that the Best Actress race in every regional, guild, and national race has been won by her speaks volumes, and I really don't want to see some so-called "correction" tonight just because.
She was brilliant, she should've won for Gosford Park, and she's Detective Jane Tennison for crissakes! I worship at Dame Helen's alter and will drink a toast to her when she wins tomorrow night. And if she doesn't, I will be outside the Kodak waving my torch and pitchfork in about 2.5.
Best Actor: Forest Whitaker (should/will; spoiler:
O'Toole...but that bandwagon never really came together)
No competition. Ryan was brilliant, but his day will come.
Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin (should/will; spoiler:
Murphy, unfortunately
)
I'm going out on a limb, because Eddie Murphy has the edge and will likely take it. But WOW how industry people hate him, and his DG role is just hopped up Eddie Murphy schtick, with approximately five minutes of acting thrown in. He's been too difficult, too simple, too complacent, for too long, and I think Arkin could easily take it. But Murphy probably will, unless some hundreds of actors' branch members grow some balls.
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (should/will; spoiler:
none. duh.)
This is a strange category this year. Each and every actress, all of them besides JHud completely unknown, gives a remarkable performance, and one could argue for each. But practically speaking, the one that makes you sit up and take notice is JHud. It's a joke that she's a "supporting" actress in the first place, but bravo Dreamworks for getting her out of Dame Helen's way. She was the best thing about Dreamgirls and perhaps showed more depth and talent than the industry realizes. I just hope she doesn't totally implode after winning and go the way of so many first-time, 'unknown' winners.
Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth (spoiler:
The Lives of Others)
I havent seen either
yet, but I gather that Pan's is commercially and critically adored. Lives is also critically adored. Will Lives overtake the more widely viewed Pan's? Who knows?
I invite you all to raise a glass with me around 8PM est tomorrow. I'm sure I'll have lots to say once it's over, and it's always more fun to discuss it with others in the know.
I don't know how or why I became
this interested in the Oscars . . . but it reminds me constantly of why I love film, of the diversity of our experience, of the multitude of talent out there. The Oscars are ultimately irrelevent, but they bring it all in to focus, for me at least.
And despite all, they sure are fun
