Remarks by the President on Common-Sense Gun Safety Reform

[Benvolio]

Again, smoothing shows the sparsely-populated areas to have high rates of gun deaths because those areas have high rates of gun deaths.

Nonsense............./

 

[T-Rexx]

Nonsense............./

The point being that the world should just accede to your opinions, because you already know all of the answers without bothering to investigate.

 

[Benvolio]

The point being that the world should just accede to your opinions, because you already know all of the answers without bothering to investigate.

No, because the methodology give the illusion of a high rate in uninhabited areas.

 

[rareboy]

It would not be unusual at all for extremely sparsely populated areas to have extremely high rates of gun deaths.

If you can't grasp this simple mathematical reality...there really is no hope whatsoever for you.

 

[Kabluey]

No, because the methodology give the illusion of a high rate in uninhabited areas.

But it is.
In fact, given people who live in sparsely populated areas have fewer interactions with others than people in cities.

Someone in the city might come into contact with dozens, maybe hundreds of people in a day.
More than someone in a country area might meet in a month.

That kind of means every interaction with another person in remote, high homicide rate counties is substantially more likely to result in a homicide by my reckoning...

 

[rareboy]

^ I don't think that Benvolio is apparently capable of grasping this concept.

 

[T-Rexx]

But it is.
In fact, given people who live in sparsely populated areas have fewer interactions with others than people in cities.

Someone in the city might come into contact with dozens, maybe hundreds of people in a day.
More than someone in a country area might meet in a month.

That kind of means every interaction with another person in remote, high homicide rate counties is substantially more likely to result in a homicide by my reckoning...

Yes, exactly. That's what makes this data so fascinating.

The probability of interaction with another person in a rural area is substantially LESS than that of the probability of interaction with another person in an urban area. And yet, it would seem that the possibility of that interaction resulting in a gun death is far, far more likely in rural areas than urban. Presumably, the reason for this is that rural people possess more guns per capita than urban people, and are therefore more likely to shoot them. Which is hardly a surprising finding.

But, these facts are troubling to Ben, who can only appreciate this in racial terms. The data imply that white, rural people are more violent that black, urban people. Which contradicts his world view that white, Protestant people of northern European extraction are racially superior to all of the other people of the world.

 

[Benvolio]

Yes, exactly. That's what makes this data so fascinating.

The probability of interaction with another person in a rural area is substantially LESS than that of the probability of interaction with another person in an urban area. And yet, it would seem that the possibility of that interaction resulting in a gun death is far, far more likely in rural areas than urban. Presumably, the reason for this is that rural people possess more guns per capita than urban people, and are therefore more likely to shoot them. Which is hardly a surprising finding.

But, these facts are troubling to Ben, who can only appreciate this in racial terms. The data imply that white, rural people are more violent that black, urban people. Which contradicts his world view that white, Protestant people of northern European extraction are racially superior to all of the other people of the world.

You lie. I have never implied racial superiority. You are so obcessed with your own racism that you cannot think of cultural differences.
You conclusions from the map are simply proof that it is misleading as you are misled. One shooting can result in a huge area being smeared dark.

 

[rareboy]

....uhhhhh...that is what rates are all about.

Smart people would look at rates, gross numbers and other underlying factors wherever something anomalous turns up.

And sometimes pull back to a bigger picture if, for instance rates in individual neighbourhoods, cities and counties suggest that a different metric is more useful.

When I looked at the maps, I was looking at states and even regions in order to do a comparison...not county by county.

You just can't seem to grasp the concept of rates per 100000 population for some reason....or that this is what the amp is illustrating.

It has been clear that you have misunderstood what the map is actually showing and the meaning of what it shows all along.

As I said...beyond hope.

But you will just keep doubling down.

 

[Kabluey]

....uhhhhh...that is what rates are all about.

Smart people would look at rates, gross numbers and other underlying factors wherever something anomalous turns up.

And sometimes pull back to a bigger picture if, for instance rates in individual neighbourhoods, cities and counties suggest that a different metric is more useful.

When I looked at the maps, I was looking at states and even regions in order to do a comparison...not county by county.

You just can't seem to grasp the concept of rates per 100000 population for some reason....or that this is what the amp is illustrating.

It has been clear that you have misunderstood what the map is actually showing and the meaning of what it shows all along.

As I said...beyond hope.

But you will just keep doubling down.

Faith-based maths.

 

[rareboy]

I think that when someone also so utterly misapprehends the meaning of the colour scheme used to demonstrate the rate...and thinks it is some kind of plot by Democrats...we pretty much should realize that there is no hope.

Thank God I never had him as a student. Some people are just doomed....

 

[T-Rexx]

You lie. I have never implied racial superiority. You are so obcessed with your own racism that you cannot think of cultural differences.

But you said even in this very thread (Post #228 above) that race was the primary predictor of crime:

7ou must know that the most important predictor of crime in an area is race.

 

[Benvolio]

But you said even in this very thread (Post #228 above) that race was the primary predictor of crime:

I did not say any race was superior or inferior. That is a lie. I said the racial make up of an area is the most important predictor of crime. A third of black men spend time in the pen, for whatever reason, but I have never suggested that the reason is racial. I have said it is cultural and economic. Our policy of massive immigration has cause high rates of minority unemployment and low wages, combined with poor work ethic resulting from welfare dependency.

 

[Kabluey]

I did not say any race was superior or inferior. That is a lie. I said the racial make up of an area is the most important predictor of crime. A third of black men spend time in the pen, for whatever reason, but I have never suggested that the reason is racial. I have said it is cultural and economic. Our policy of massive immigration has cause high rates of minority unemployment and low wages, combined with poor work ethic resulting from welfare dependency.

It's the immigrants that cause everyone to shoot each other!
That violin lost its strings a long time ago.
Disingenuous racism and dog whistling is every bit as obvious as outright racism, except it's used by cowards.

 

[opinterph]

If a county has no fatal shootings but is surrounded by counties that do have, smoothing could result in the assertion that said county does have fatal shootings.

It’s more about relative comparison with the surrounding areas than a specific “assertion” associated with a static subset of the greater whole.

It seems obvious that the counties appearing “greyed-out” in the map you quoted have 20 or fewer deaths, but without reviewing the actual data (which is available) I can’t say for sure if they have zero.

I note that Lake County, Oregon consists of over 8,000 square miles, but has fewer than 8,000 residents. It was not remarkable in the map you quoted, but appears quite remarkable in the version that includes application of geospatial smoothing. It would be interesting to explore the reason(s) for that change in the display results.

In an earlier post you mentioned that “outsiders” came into some areas and committed homicide by firearm. While that shouldn’t necessarily reflect upon the native population, it is nonetheless part of what happened in those locations during the period of data collection and is therefore a legitimate part of the output.

In this case, smoothing should be done over time

I think that is what is represented in the diagrams. The data includes years 2004–2010.

BTW, including suicides isn't helpful in any way in telling anyone how dangerous an area is in terms of being the victim of a shooting, since suicides generally shoot only themselves.

That is why I included only homicide by firearm in the diagram you quoted.

 

[opinterph]

A third of black men spend time in the pen, for whatever reason, but I have never suggested that the reason is racial. I have said it is cultural and economic.

Maybe you should just quit talking about it, because your remarks are consistently inflammatory and insulting.

With respect to the moderation of this forum, cultural prejudice shall be considered a subset of racism. This includes use of specific language, slang, or innuendo that appears reasonably intended to suggest that persons of another heritage, culture, race, or ethnicity are inherently deficient or otherwise inferior to a native population.

---

poor work ethic

Don't push your luck. I know racism when I see it.

 

[Benvolio]

Maybe you should just quit talking about it, because your remarks are consistently inflammatory and insulting.

​

---

Don't push your luck. I know racism when I see it.

I would point out that you are selective and liberal in your enforcement of the prohibition. For instance, I was responding to T-Rexx, who said: "The data imply that white, rural people are more violent that black, urban people."
What is he saying if it is not racial or cultural? My response used the dread "c" word, but it pointed to specific economic policies responsible for the differences, not to any thing "inherent" either racially or culturally.
Does a day ever go by when someone in the forum does not say something nasty about white people with impunity?
It is difficult to discuss poverty, crime, etc without discussing culture. For instance, we recently discussed in other threads, the US list of the most livable countries, a majority of which are traditionally protestant countries. And we saw a map of the countries with the least corruption. Again, they are the traditional Protestant counties. On the other hand we read in the news of female mutilations and honor killings. They are c_______l differences, even if we are prohibited from using the "c" word.

 

[rareboy]

^ Your assertion is largely nonsense.

Canada is a polyglot country with a very large French Catholic population. And it rates 'cleaner' than the US.

https://www.transparency.org/cpi2014/results



And the more hierarchical and oligarchical a country is with large gaps between the rich and the poor and the well educated and the under-educated.....the more likely it is to have a higher rate of corruption. When there is a large middle class...of any religious or cultural background.....in an open democratic country, there will be less corruption.

There is no question that there are countries that now have centuries old systems of bribes and other forms of corruption that are endemic to the way they conduct all business. The US has Wall Street. And the oligarchs like the Koch Brothers who are shifting the country toward a less transparent, less fair system. Certainly the antics of the American Banks and insurers leading up to 2008 certainly makes the petty corruption in many other banana republics and 2nd and 3rd world countries look like child's play.


You are trying to argue that there is an a priori causation for corruption that is based on 'culture', when it is a far more complex situation than you could ever understand.

Your desire is to reduce it all down to 'white anglo-saxon protestants are good'.....versus.....everyone else, is disingenuous. I am reminded as well, every time you talk about white protestant culture that the only other place where this gets raised is over here.


And the most liveable countries are socialist countries with universal health care and affordable education.

 

[kallipolis]

You are trying to argue that there is an a priori causation for corruption that is based on 'culture', when it is a far more complex situation than you could ever understand.

Your desire is to reduce it all down to 'white anglo-saxon protestants are good'.....versus.....everyone else, is disingenuous. I am reminded as well, every time you talk about white protestant culture that the only other place where this gets raised is over here.

An accurate observation.

It is ironic referencing Stormfront, for a former Greek Secretary of State, for Defence is languishing in Athens prison, where he will probably die...the result of having been bribed with tens of millions by German defence equipment manufacturers supplying submarines, destroyers, artillery, tanks, trucks, jeeps etc., hardware that the Greek Armed Forces purchased at exorbitant prices.

 

[Benvolio]

An accurate observation.

It is ironic referencing Stormfront, for a former Greek Secretary of State, for Defence is languishing in Athens prison, where he will probably die...the result of having been bribed with tens of millions by German defence equipment manufacturers supplying submarines, destroyers, artillery, tanks, trucks, jeeps etc., hardware that the Greek Armed Forces purchased at exorbitant prices.

Notice that I had specific reference to the UN map of the least corrupt countries. Obviously none are perfect.