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Report Claims Libya Protest Deaths Hit 200

Kulindahr said:
It's just like this tinpot to bring in foreign mercenaries. He doesn't care about the people, and plainly doesn't even trust his own people, if he has to resort to that.

I wonder what the chances are of this becoming a standoff, with eastern Libya becoming effectively a separate country?
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I think it's unlikely. But this could be a very bloody affair. He's a brutal dictator who has brutalised his people. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, there is no indigenous political culture separate from the regime.
 
EastMed said:
I think it's unlikely. But this could be a very bloody affair. He's a brutal dictator who has brutalised his people. Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, there is no indigenous political culture separate from the regime.
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That lack of a common political culture is bad. Even with the Magna Charta, which was basically lesser warlords telling their king his power had limits, there was an underlying unity in the feudal order, with all barons effectively equal. Here... are there enough tribes to make even a Magna Charta type solution work? That sort of solution requires a situation in which no one faction can expect to dominate by itself, nor any union of a small number of factions.

Either way, I think a council of chiefs would be a workable intermediate step to something more stable than a regime founded on terror.
 
kallipolis said:
This article sheds some light on Libya's power structures, and their possible influence on the outcome to this civil war:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12558066
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Sounds like the army isn't that much of a player.

It also sounds like some charismatic chief should be convincing the others that having a central figure who plays them against each other is not a good idea.

Perhaps the worst is that if Qadaffi goes, it will leave dozens of nasty well-armed organizations with no leader at the center. Can anyone say "Somalia"?
 
Kulindahr said:
Sounds like the army isn't that much of a player.

It also sounds like some charismatic chief should be convincing the others that having a central figure who plays them against each other is not a good idea.

Perhaps the worst is that if Qadaffi goes, it will leave dozens of nasty well-armed organizations with no leader at the center. Can anyone say "Somalia"?
Click to expand...

The tribal chiefs will decide the outcome of Gadaffi's fate.

The paramilitaries are tribal orientated and with the sentiment of the general population moving rapidly in support of removing Gadaffi it is unlikely that some 4000 African mercenaries will be able to do more than act as a Praetorian guard to safely whisk Gadaffi to exile in Saudi Arabia.
 
Kulindahr said:
That lack of a common political culture is bad. Even with the Magna Charta, which was basically lesser warlords telling their king his power had limits, there was an underlying unity in the feudal order, with all barons effectively equal. Here... are there enough tribes to make even a Magna Charta type solution work? That sort of solution requires a situation in which no one faction can expect to dominate by itself, nor any union of a small number of factions.

Either way, I think a council of chiefs would be a workable intermediate step to something more stable than a regime founded on terror.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. I hope this is what will happen. And Libyans also have a strong sense of national identity.
 
I'm hoping that Libyans can dispense with this man and his family and 40 person all female bodyguard by prayers on Friday.

I see that there are also now protests in Morocco.

I wonder if all these countries will be able to get their old dictators out and new ones installed by April when we are supposed to be in Tangiers and Tripoli.
 
Oh all this unrest and the arming to the teeth that will follow is an armaments producer's dream scenario.
 
rareboy said:
Oh all this unrest and the arming to the teeth that will follow is an armaments producer's dream scenario.
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Hardly -- it's a situation that sets arms dealers' teeth grinding. Dictators are guaranteed markets fro arms of all types; with the obscene exception of the United States, democracies are not. If these countries should go to democracy, odds are the dealers will be selling less.

An arms dealer's dream would be an outbreak of civil war all the way across the north end of Africa.
 
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