Wow. I hate to be Little Miss Ray of Sunshine, but here's the really bad news: All retailers are struggling. If you work in Retail in 2009, NO job is safe. None of them--Sorry, Gentlemen.
Once 4th Quarter results are in, and most will be done in early February, watch for every single Retail operation to examine their operations, and watch for a bloodbath. Underperforming stores will close--suddenly--if the entire operation doesn't go into reorganization, or even worse, total liquidation. It is usually cheaper for a retailer to shutter a store than keep an underperforming one open.
Two segments mentioned in the above posts get a little more analysis from me: General Retailers/Department stores (too hard to separate the two these days) and Specialty Retailers.
General Retailers/Department Stores: EVERYONE took a huge hit over Christmas. Look for major store closings from: JCPenney; Dillards; Target; TJX Companies. I predict death for Sears Holdings/a.k.a. Kame Apart; when the merger happened a lot of this was based on Real Estate holdings, which in case nobody noticed, have tanked this past year. I'll even go further out on a limb and say under Chapter 7, they will sell their two biggest brand names, Kenmore and Craftsman, to that other Retailer that begins with a W and ends with a Mart. Dillards will try first to close stores and fail; the wreckage will be bought for pennies by either JCP or Macy's.
Specialty Retailers: This segment of the market will look hugely different in 12 months. Watch for many failures and mergers. GAP will retrench, close many stores but eventually recover as a much smaller company. Pier One, long suffering--hasn't shown a Profit since 2005--outta here. Jones Apparel will go back to being a supplier and close all retail outlets. Several other smaller Specialty retailers will merge. And hate to say it, thedolaon, but Pac Sunwear doesn't look too good right now--they closed trading at .93 a share on Friday, down from 14.04 within the last year. Save your Pennies!
Other Segments: Rather than go into the rest of it, watch for the following Chapter 11 (reorganization) bankruptcies: Home Depot; Chrysler LLC (if their proposal to marry Fiat doesn't happen); General Growth Properties (mall management); Supervalu (Groceries); Pulte (homebuilder); La-Z-Boy; and if Chrysler goes down, watch for Johnson Controls. Oh yeah, MASCO will also have to file Chapter 11.
OK, I'm done. Back to your regularly scheduled programming of Penis Size, Poop threads, and the grossness of Vajayjays.
