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Romney takes Michigan and Arizona

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...--Santorum-each-pick-up-delegates-in-Michigan

Michigan was really a win for Rick Santorum. Delegates will be about even: 15 to 15. (If not, it would be 14 for Santorum to 16 for Mitt Romney.) The delegates are awarded through the states' 14 congressional districts. Two [2] for each of those districts. The remaining two delegates are awarded to represent the winner of the statewide vote.

Romney won Michigan in 2008 by over 9 percentage points before the Republican nomination was won by John McCain. Four years later, with Romney considered the 2012 frontrunner for his party's nomination, he underperformed and carried Michigan just over 3 points.

Michigan is Romney's birth state. His father, George Romney (1907-1995), was governor in the 1960s. This was during the presidencies of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. (He won elections in 1962 and 1966.) And Michigan tends to give the type of Republican support, at a statewide level, for those types who seemed closer suited to the era of the Moderate Republican. (Example: Rick Snyder, not Pete Hoesktra, having won the 2010 Republican nomination for Governor of Michigan.)

Arizona, which awards 100 percent of its 29 delegates to the winner of the statewide vote, was the successful Feb. 28, 2012 result for Mitt Romney. Had Mich. not had half its delegates reduced, for having violated national party rules by holding the primary early, he'd have the same level of delegates with Mich. that are coming from Ariz. In this case, Romney gets double from Ariz., the No. 16 state in the nation to Mich.'s No. 8.
 
I feel like poll after poll has shown that most voters don't really care if a politician was born in their state 40+ years ago... I don't really get the hype over the idea of a "home-state advantage"

It matters when you're the nominee for president of the United States. Last president to win without his home state: Richard Nixon, in 1968, who claimed not California but New York as his home state. In a Republican pickup of the White House, with the preceding 1964 giving Democrat Lyndon Johnson 44 states, Nixon upped Barry Goldwater's measly six to 32 but did not get N.Y. He also did not win over vice-presidential running mate Spiro Agnew's home state of Maryland.
 
delegate count is a "detail"

The headline is Romney averts disaster in Michigan - and after being behind double digits there not too long ago

PLUS I read Santorum picked up 3 pts from DEMS who voted for him 53-17

Imagine that logic ;). Dems supporting Santorum - cynic much ?

BTW Martin Sheen character = Rick S is priceless
 
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/...--Santorum-each-pick-up-delegates-in-Michigan

Michigan was really a win for Rick Santorum. Delegates will be about even: 15 to 15. (If not, it would be 14 for Santorum to 16 for Mitt Romney.) The delegates are awarded through the states' 14 congressional districts. Two [2] for each of those districts. The remaining two delegates are awarded to represent the winner of the statewide vote.

Romney won Michigan in 2008 by over 9 percentage points before the Republican nomination was won by John McCain. Four years later, with Romney considered the 2012 frontrunner for his party's nomination, he underperformed and carried Michigan just over 3 points.

Michigan is Romney's birth state. His father, George Romney (1907-1995), was governor in the 1960s. This was during the presidencies of John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson. (He won elections in 1962 and 1966.) And Michigan tends to give the type of Republican support, at a statewide level, for those types who seemed closer suited to the era of the Moderate Republican. (Example: Rick Snyder, not Pete Hoesktra, having won the 2010 Republican nomination for Governor of Michigan.)

Arizona, which awards 100 percent of its 29 delegates to the winner of the statewide vote, was the successful Feb. 28, 2012 result for Mitt Romney. Had Mich. not had half its delegates reduced, for having violated national party rules by holding the primary early, he'd have the same level of delegates with Mich. that are coming from Ariz. In this case, Romney gets double from Ariz., the No. 16 state in the nation to Mich.'s No. 8.

It doesn't really matter. Romney still won the popular vote, and got the most delegates he possibly could have. (a detail missed in all of the frothing narrative about losing Michigan the media created)

What really matters is what is going to happen on Tuesday. With the two wins this week, Romney has momentum that Santorum does not. And Santorum's many gaffes and poorly thought out statements in the lead-up to Michigan (Obama being a snob and overtly asking democrats to vote for him) are going to come back to haunt him on Tuesday.

Somehow, it seems like this was all planned by Romney. (though, I don't think his advisors are that smart) Santorum is a significantly weakened candidate after this week, and he was already weak to begin with. Super tuesday could end up being the stake that drives itself through the heart of of Santorum's campaign.
 
^ I still think the entire thing has been choreographed by the DNC the way it is playing out.

It is only a matter of days before Romney's machine crushes the other three like bugs.
 
no Republican has ever won the nomination without winning South Carolina either, but I don't think we'll be talking about the Gingrich vs Obama debates any time soon ;)

This is not what you were addressing. You wanted to know about importance of home states. When it comes to general election, it's typically the loser who fails to carry his home state. 1968 Richard Nixon is the last exception.
 
^ I still think the entire thing has been choreographed by the DNC the way it is playing out.

It is only a matter of days before Romney's machine crushes the other three like bugs.

I don't blame you for wondering this. But I am more cynical and will refrain from saying even more on the subject.
 
This is not what you were addressing. You wanted to know about importance of home states. When it comes to general election, it's typically the loser who fails to carry his home state. 1968 Richard Nixon is the last exception.

Your statement is confusing. Does the loser in the general election fail to carry his home state in the primary or the general election? If its the latter, it doesn't matter what happens in the primary.
 
Your statement is confusing. Does the loser in the general election fail to carry his home state in the primary or the general election? If its the latter, it doesn't matter what happens in the primary.

Sorry.

This was about instances in which a home state does not get carried. I'm saying that usually works, strictly in the general election with the Republican vs. Democratic candidates, if there is failure to win one's home state ... it usually happens with the candidate who lost the election.

Since the first-post World War II election, in 1948, here are the ones who failed to carry their home state:

1952: Adlai Stevenson, D, failed to carry his home state of Illinois
1956: Adlai Stevenson, D, in his rematch against Dwight Eisenhower, R, again failed to win his home state of Illinois
*1968: Richard Nixon, R, won the presidency but did not win his home state of New York
1972: George McGovern, D, failed to unseat Nixon and did not win his home state of South Dakota
2000: Al Gore, D, failed to carry his home state of Tennessee (which was, at the time a bellwether state, in the 1992 and 1996 columns for Bill Clinton)
 
also, GWB didn't win his home state either. he was born in Connecticut as the grandson of a popular former CT Senator.

That's birth state. The record is home state. Here are the last ten elections (1972-2008):

1972: *Richard Nixon (R-California) vs. George McGovern (D-South Dakota)
1976: Gerald Ford (R-Michigan) vs. *Jimmy Carter (D-Georgia)
1980: *Ronald Reagan (R-California) vs. Jimmy Carter (D-Georgia)
1984: *Ronald Reagan (R-California) vs. Walter Mondale (D-Minnesota)
1988: *George Bush (R-Texas) vs. Michael Dukakis (D-Massachusetts)
1992: George Bush (R-Texas) vs. *Bill Clinton (D-Arkansas)
1996: Bob Dole (R-Kansas) vs. *Bill Clinton (D-Arkansas)
2000: *George W. Bush (R-Texas) vs. Al Gore (D-Tennessee)
2004: *George W. Bush (R-Texas) vs. John Kerry (D-Massachusetts)
2008: John McCain (R-Arizona) vs. *Barack Obama (D-Illinois)

^ *Winner
 
Sorry.

This was about instances in which a home state does not get carried. I'm saying that usually works, strictly in the general election with the Republican vs. Democratic candidates, if there is failure to win one's home state ... it usually happens with the candidate who lost the election.

Since the first-post World War II election, in 1948, here are the ones who failed to carry their home state:

1952: Adlai Stevenson, D, failed to carry his home state of Illinois
1956: Adlai Stevenson, D, in his rematch against Dwight Eisenhower, R, again failed to win his home state of Illinois
*1968: Richard Nixon, R, won the presidency but did not win his home state of New York
1972: George McGovern, D, failed to unseat Nixon and did not win his home state of South Dakota
2000: Al Gore, D, failed to carry his home state of Tennessee (which was, at the time a bellwether state, in the 1992 and 1996 columns for Bill Clinton)

Oh ok. Well in that case, Romney stands a strong chance of losing anyways, because there's no way he'll take Michigan in a contest with Obama.
 
Oh ok. Well in that case, Romney stands a strong chance of losing anyways, because there's no way he'll take Michigan in a contest with Obama.

Unless Mitt Romney changes location, and claims Michigan as his home state, it is likely the state he governed will be his home state for the general election: Massachusetts.
 
I tried hard to watch the MSNBC coverage, but I just get annoyed at seeing Al Sharpton still employed. what happened to the days of corrupt politicians going into a disgraceful retirement? now they just get hired by CNN, Fox, and MSNBC.

It's like the fact that former corporate executives end up running government agencies -- they "need someone with experience".
 
Unless Mitt Romney changes location, and claims Michigan as his home state, it is likely the state he governed will be his home state for the general election: Massachusetts.

His "home state" is his "home state" when it is convenient for him.

Next stop: Washington state this Saturday.
 
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