Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[TX-Beau]

At this point, that might not be the case anymore.

Anyway, no deal can be made with Putin. Even if he wanted to end this, he can't; the knives will come for him unless he defeats Ukraine and forces it into a vassal state, or takes and keeps enough of it to appease his regime. Surrendering all gains in Ukraine for Crimea is not on the table for Putin. He'll demand everything or nothing, and even then he can't be trusted to keep his word. You can't make deals with Putin without massive security guarantees like NATO membership or at least a presence inside Ukraine.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Crimea is more apart of Russia historically than it is the Ukraine and if Zelensky was offered a deal where he had to give up that and nothing else he’d either sign it immediately or loose all his allies.

I doubt there is anyone living in the Ukraine who would die on that hill.

President Zelenskyy immediately and publicly stated that Ukraine would NEVER recognize Russian owership of Crimea. Unlike Trump, he means his words.

Crimea did not come into the territory of Urkaine by aggression, invasion, or annexation. Russia, under the direction of Nikita Khrushchev, ceded Crimea in 1954 for multiple reasons, but ostensibly in celebration of 300 years of shared identity between Russia and Ukraine.

Crimea was never "more" Russian than Ukrainian in any cultural way. Ukraine was always nearer, and Crimea had a significan Tatar population that was exiled after WWII as Rusia moved to Russiy Crimea more as it focused on Sevastopol as an important stategic port. After the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine, another million Russians moved into Crimea.

Some 40 years after the transfer to Ukraine, and after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia recognized, by treaty, the terrritorial borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.

The 2014 invasion is illegal and will always represent the anti-democratic barbarism of Russia. She plainly had buyer's remorse, so to speak, or in this case, maybe "seller's remorse" is more accurate. But done is done.

And Europe will be sorry if she allows Russia to retain Crimea. Her strategic perch there will absolutely come to play as she proceeds to take down Ukraine permanently.

 

[rareboy]

This is why Putin is laughing at Trump.

 

[Norri]

President Zelenskyy immediately and publicly stated that Ukraine would NEVER recognize Russian owership of Crimea. Unlike Trump, he means his words.

Crimea did not come into the territory of Urkaine by aggression, invasion, or annexation. Russia, under the direction of Nikita Khrushchev, ceded Crimea in 1954 for multiple reasons, but ostensibly in celebration of 300 years of shared identity between Russia and Ukraine.

Crimea was never "more" Russian than Ukrainian in any cultural way. Ukraine was always nearer, and Crimea had a significan Tatar population that was exiled after WWII as Rusia moved to Russiy Crimea more as it focused on Sevastopol as an important stategic port. After the transfer of Crimea to Ukraine, another million Russians moved into Crimea.

Some 40 years after the transfer to Ukraine, and after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia recognized, by treaty, the terrritorial borders of Ukraine, including Crimea.

The 2014 invasion is illegal and will always represent the anti-democratic barbarism of Russia. She plainly had buyer's remorse, so to speak, or in this case, maybe "seller's remorse" is more accurate. But done is done.

And Europe will be sorry if she allows Russia to retain Crimea. Her strategic perch there will absolutely come to play as she proceeds to take down Ukraine permanently.

Realties on the ground is what will determine the future of Crimea and not what Zelenskyy will or will not recognize. However if he means what he says he should endeavor to make that a reality which would entail drafting and training soldiers to send to the Crimea to expel the Russians. Failing that nothing more than empty words.

The draft age in the Ukraine is still 25, they have manpower shortages in the parts of the Ukraine they are currently fighting and if they refuse to draft and train more soldiers Zelenskyy is telling Putin all he needs to know.

Yes the Russians took Crimea illegally and are in the Ukraine illegally and someone should do something about it, I’m looking at Zelenskyy I don’t know who he’s looking at.

 

[TX-Beau]

Realties on the ground is what will determine the future of Crimea and not what Zelenskyy will or will not recognize. However if he means what he says he should endeavor to make that a reality which would entail drafting and training soldiers to send to the Crimea to expel the Russians. Failing that nothing more than empty words.

The draft age in the Ukraine is still 25, they have manpower shortages in the parts of the Ukraine they are currently fighting and if they refuse to draft and train more soldiers Zelenskyy is telling Putin all he needs to know.

Yes the Russians took Crimea illegally and are in the Ukraine illegally and someone should do something about it, I’m looking at Zelenskyy I don’t know who he’s looking at.

Why is it you think Putin can sustain this indefinitely? His labor shortage is more critical than Ukraine's, and no European countries are helping his tanking economy.

We none of us know what Ukrains is planning to do. It's not very useful to decide hypothetically for them. Who knows.

The reality on the ground is that Putin did not make that offer, and Ukraine already rejected even discussing it, and that deal was never anything more than the fevered imaginings of the Orange Toad who would be Emperor.

 

[rareboy]

Realties on the ground is what will determine the future of Crimea and not what Zelenskyy will or will not recognize. However if he means what he says he should endeavor to make that a reality which would entail drafting and training soldiers to send to the Crimea to expel the Russians. Failing that nothing more than empty words.

The draft age in the Ukraine is still 25, they have manpower shortages in the parts of the Ukraine they are currently fighting and if they refuse to draft and train more soldiers Zelenskyy is telling Putin all he needs to know.

Yes the Russians took Crimea illegally and are in the Ukraine illegally and someone should do something about it, I’m looking at Zelenskyy I don’t know who he’s looking at.

He was probably looking at the countries like the US that were supposed to be guarantors of Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for the west making Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons and preventing it from joining NATO,

You obviously are another person who thinks this is only about Ukraine, instead of this being about Ukraine being left more or less on their own to prevent the rrrZZZains from sweeping across the Baltics and Eastern Europe.... the last bastion against Soviet Union 2.0 stretching across all of Europe.

 

[Norri]

Why is it you think Putin can sustain this indefinitely? His labor shortage is more critical than Ukraine's, and no European countries are helping his tanking economy.

We none of us know what Ukrains is planning to do. It's not very useful to decide hypothetically for them. Who knows.

The reality on the ground is that Putin did not make that offer, and Ukraine already rejected even discussing it, and that deal was never anything more than the fevered imaginings of the Orange Toad who would be Emperor.

Putin has his own problems but he looks rather comfortable to me just now, something has to change the status quo if he is to recalculate and expanding the draft might do that. It would signal to Putin that this will be a longer war which as you point out is not what he wants.

I could be wrong but what other card does Zelenskyy have to play?

He has to do something beyond telling the world what is or is not acceptable to him.

 

[Norri]

He was probably looking at the countries like the US that were supposed to be guarantors of Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for the west making Ukraine give up its nuclear weapons and preventing it from joining NATO,

You obviously are another person who thinks this is only about Ukraine, instead of this being about Ukraine being left more or less on their own to prevent the rrrZZZains from sweeping across the Baltics and Eastern Europe.... the last bastion against Soviet Union 2.0 stretching across all of Europe.

First off no one ‘made’ the Ukraine give up anything they did it of their own volition probably because they were not in charge of those weapons the Russians were and I don’t know if the Ukraine had the technical ability to take those weapons over. Also let’s say they still had those N bombs do you think it would have changed anything that has occurred because I don’t. The idea that if invaded it’s time to shoot off our N bombs is a radical one. And that doesn’t even take into account that you’re shooting those missiles at a country that can send some your way 10 times over.

As much as I agree with you those security guarantees are worthless it is ironic that the Ukraine wants them again once this war is over.

And yes I am one of those people who think this is just about the Ukraine, I’ve seen the Russian army in action the idea they could sweep across the European land mass is a fantasy and ignores the reality of their performance in the Ukraine to date.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Realties on the ground is what will determine the future of Crimea and not what Zelenskyy will or will not recognize. However if he means what he says he should endeavor to make that a reality which would entail drafting and training soldiers to send to the Crimea to expel the Russians. Failing that nothing more than empty words.

The draft age in the Ukraine is still 25, they have manpower shortages in the parts of the Ukraine they are currently fighting and if they refuse to draft and train more soldiers Zelenskyy is telling Putin all he needs to know.

Yes the Russians took Crimea illegally and are in the Ukraine illegally and someone should do something about it, I’m looking at Zelenskyy I don’t know who he’s looking at.

The current impossibility of Ukraine retaking Crimea is NOT tantamount to Ukraine being forced to rercognize Russian ownership of Crimea.

There can be a ceasefire that can last for months or years without Ukraine acknowledging her lost territories as de facto rightfully Russian.

Zelenskyy is doing what he can do at the moment, which is continue to rally Europe to Ukraine's support, keeping Russia in a state of jeopardy as long as she remains on invaded territory.

Just because Europe is too reticent today to go to war to protect Europe's borders doesn't mean she will be as reticent in the coming years. The longer Russia gets away with this aggression, the more likely a newly militarized Europe will flex her own muscle to drive Russia back.

Will it be WWIII? That would really depend on who would join in? China will not. Iran likely not (with forces). North Korea might, in order to gain stature in the international forum, but not likely with her general weakness, plus Europe isn't something she can afford to engage with her own perils closer.

And, the more Trump sucks up to Russia, the more likely the pendulum will swing away from Trump's corruption and abandonment of America's long-held values. And when he is deposed, we might well have to put up in Ukraine and assist in driving Russia out.

In any event, Russia will have to do the calculation to decide if she is willing to risk all her cities in a no-holds-barred WWIII, or if she should just buckle and reverse her invasion.

As long as US and Europe signal Ukraine isn't worth bloodshed, Russia will continue to attack and progress.

 

[NotHardUp1]

What's so fascinating is that Trump somehow thinks his reputation is in play as a deal maker.

Riiiiiight.

You claim the killing bothers you. You. The man who champions violence capriciously and encourages supporters and law enforcement to beat people. You. The man itiching to deport US cittizens to black sites for permanent torture. You.

But, under that ruse, you pretend to play peacemaker so that you can use your illegal alliance with Russia to broker crony deals for profiteering amongst your gang members, the ones you won't be deporting.

And you tout the deal as humanitarian, yet you send a realtor to Russia to "negotiate" when all you are actually doing is trying to speak by proxy for Ukraine to surrender. Then you berate a democratically elected president as a "dictator" and you become the Trevi Fountain of outrage when he doesn't leap at the generous offer to remove him from power as a cherry on top for the invading imperialists.

And now, as it all goes to hell in a handbasket, you tongue lash Putin, still doing absolutely nothing to get any concessions from Russia whatsoever, and pretend like it's some even handed diplomacy that ballances your attempts to make Ukraine surrender.

Guess what? Ukraine WILL sacrifice the country before just rolling over. Eastern Europe already did the capitulate game in the aftermath of WWII. It wasn't a good look.

OK, we've vented. So tell us more about how the Chinese have crawled on their knees to you in the night to beg for tariff relieve. Let's return to the humorous stuff.

 

[rareboy]

A good day because rrrzia lost tow more aircraft.

We also need more warships sunk.

 

[rareboy]

I am enjoying that Zelenski has said that he cannot guantee the safety of attendees at the Kremlin May Day parade and almost immediately Vucic and Ficov came down with the 'Flu'.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Just the fact that Russia celebrations will be held under a cloud of fear is enough, even if the Ukrainians don't manage to pull off a hat trick.

My guess is Zelenskyy is too wise to attack masses of Russians gathered, else he be the barbarian that Putin claims. Smart money is riding on a serious go at the Crimean Bridge or another high value target that will steal headlines worldwide and embarrass Putin.

Just a guess, mind you.

 

[Dargelos]

The only people who could pull off such an audacious stunt, taking out Pooty in front of the whole world, are Mossad.
But they will not because it is too obvious, nobody else has the specialist skills. And why would they risk upsetting Komrade Krasnov?

 

[TX-Beau]

The only people who could pull off such an audacious stunt, taking out Pooty in front of the whole world, are Mossad.
But they will not because it is too obvious, nobody else has the specialist skills. And why would they risk upsetting Komrade Krasnov?

Ukraine has never used wholesale civilian slaughter. That is Russia - and Israel.

 

[Dargelos]

Yes, of course, to do what is needed without hurting civilians is probably beyond the skills of Ukraine. Some observers say that the man himself rarely appears at these events. One of his body doubles will be in the VIP stand while the actual Mr Evil is watching from a catering or a technical area. How crushing for morale it would be to use up all your resources only to find that it was an actor who died.
I have a faint distant memory, maybe someone can add some firming up, of a plan to use a pilot to break out of the flypast and kamikaze the VIP stand, this was a long time ago. The pilot, though ready to sacrifice his own life, bailed at the risk of so many potential civilian deaths. This may be a false memory, does anybody know?

 

[rareboy]

I had missed this one.

Again, I don't know why the west doesn't just seize assets once and for all.

 

[TX-Beau]

Happy May 9th!

 

[Kulindahr]

Just the fact that Russia celebrations will be held under a cloud of fear is enough, even if the Ukrainians don't manage to pull off a hat trick.

My guess is Zelenskyy is too wise to attack masses of Russians gathered, else he be the barbarian that Putin claims. Smart money is riding on a serious go at the Crimean Bridge or another high value target that will steal headlines worldwide and embarrass Putin.

Just a guess, mind you.

I'd love to see Ukrainian drones drop paint bombs on the parade, using the colors from their flag. It would send the message "Nowhere is safe" but also "We're not the enemies of the Russian people".

 

[Kulindahr]

The only people who could pull off such an audacious stunt, taking out Pooty in front of the whole world, are Mossad.
But they will not because it is too obvious, nobody else has the specialist skills. And why would they risk upsetting Komrade Krasnov?

Mossad would be more likely to take out all the staffs of all Putin's high government officials. It would cause a circus as those officials wouldn't have anyone to tell them what they should say next.