Survivor 30 - Worlds Apart -

[slipintothefog]

Shirin's redemption arc better be amazing. :')

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Still getting that Mike winner's edit and still grossed out by it.

 

[CoolBlue71]

Still getting that Mike winner's edit and still grossed out by it.

What is a "winner's edit?"

 

[joesman]

I think Jen gets a pretty good edit, too and I don't mind. Initially I did not like her but now love her. We do get to see Carolyn's face when something happens and it tells everything without a word.

I am glad it was Joaquin than Joe. That bromance had to die a sudden death because it was just too fugly. Only other scenario would have sent Rodney home and I would have danced. Here is a perfect example of an asshole who cannot see that he is an asshole even when called on it. To him it is always someone else. Rodney's plan to throw a challenge backfired on his sorry ass, when his bro was sent packing and he was left looking around like a frigging fool.

 

[slipintothefog]

Shirin telling Dolton Ross to STFU and take a seat is pretty great.

 

[Redsox]

I think Jen gets a pretty good edit, too and I don't mind. Initially I did not like her but now love her. We do get to see Carolyn's face when something happens and it tells everything without a word.

I am glad it was Joaquin than Joe. That bromance had to die a sudden death because it was just too fugly. Only other scenario would have sent Rodney home and I would have danced. Here is a perfect example of an asshole who cannot see that he is an asshole even when called on it. To him it is always someone else. Rodney's plan to throw a challenge backfired on his sorry ass, when his bro was sent packing and he was left looking around like a frigging fool.

Exactly. Well said. Rodney doesn't get it. Only that he was screwed over.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Shirin telling Dolton Ross to STFU and take a seat is pretty great.

GOD he's such a tool. And Shirin now joins Linda Holmes as awesome women who told Ross to suck it.

 

[slipintothefog]

What is a "winner's edit?"

There's a whole subsection of Survivor fans that try to sniff out the winner based on patterns and trends of the edits of previous winners. Basically, there's logic to the way the show is edited that tells the story of the person who ends up winning. (See also: "edgic" on Survivor Sucks.) The general consensus seems to be that Mike has the most likely winner edit so far this season. However there are no legit spoilers for this season and there are other possible contenders still in the mix, including Hali, Jenn and Joe.

Examples: Kelly and Sierra do not have winner's edits because it took several episodes for the show to actually start featuring them. Dan and Rodney do not have winner's edits because they're portrayed as buffoons/assholes. There's a lot of individual interpretation to edgic, though. For instance, some people are still convinced Jenn has a winning edit while others dismissed her weeks ago for how the show portrayed her coldly dismissing the deaf Nina. (Portraying the winner as negative in ways unrelated to strategy, or as morally wrong/disagreeable, are generally no-nos to the Survivor editors.)

 

[Sgt Pepper]

For the best analysis/example of a winner's edit see...pretty much ALL of slipintothefog's posts last season. He totally nailed it.

In other news, I'm amused that fans are still debating why Sierra ultimately went with Mike & Dan when she seemed to get along with Joaquin. To me the answer is so obvious:

Can't blame you there, girl.

 

[slipintothefog]

Oh, you!

I just got lucky with Natalie though. Typically if my favorite woman on a season has even the slightest chance of winning, I manage to contort every single second of aired footage into an indicator of her victory. It just so happened that lightning was captured in a bottle and my favorite last season won.

Unfortunately for me and Worlds Apart, Shirin's early content makes the thought of her winning laughable (I'd bet money that she ends up being axed just short of the finals as an unexpected jury threat though, since that's how these redemption edits work), and Carolyn's demographic pretty much forbids a win with the social politics of this show, so my favorites this year are a wash.

 

[CoolBlue71]

There's a whole subsection of Survivor fans that try to sniff out the winner based on patterns and trends of the edits of previous winners. Basically, there's logic to the way the show is edited that tells the story of the person who ends up winning. (See also: "edgic" on Survivor Sucks.) The general consensus seems to be that Mike has the most likely winner edit so far this season. However there are no legit spoilers for this season and there are other possible contenders still in the mix, including Hali, Jenn and Joe.

Examples: Kelly and Sierra do not have winner's edits because it took several episodes for the show to actually start featuring them. Dan and Rodney do not have winner's edits because they're portrayed as buffoons/assholes. There's a lot of individual interpretation to edgic, though. For instance, some people are still convinced Jenn has a winning edit while others dismissed her weeks ago for how the show portrayed her coldly dismissing the deaf Nina. (Portraying the winner as negative in ways unrelated to strategy, or as morally wrong/disagreeable, are generally no-nos to the Survivor editors.)

I look at the Survivor "winner's edit" as more a narrative. But, I do get what you are explaining. And I even had my own comments, @ Post #30, regarding which ones I have a good feeling with:

My impressions of Survivor: Worlds Apart (so far):

• White Collar: Tyler and Carolyn
• No Collar: Jenn and Hali
• Blue Collar: Mike and Kelly

…

I can't say that I truly have a horse in this race; that's because, in later mentioning No Collar's Joe, in addition to Jenn and Hali, it's really a listing of which villagers seem to have the real potential to get far (and to the end). But, the chances are good that the game will get broken open because, frankly, if it's a Final Three it's likely one of them can't cobble together much or any votes (making it essentially a two-way contest at best). This is reason why a strategic Mike would be in need to have an arrogant Dan in a Final Three with him. (Now, that's if Mike is getting to the end.)

In the next Survivor episode, the person who loses out will finish in 12th place. Either that will be the start of the jury…or it will be the following vote-out Survivor. I don't necessarily think Blue Collar's Rodney will go out quickly, it turns out Mike gets to the end, because that eventual loss may be savored longer if Mike has in mind a buffer of original Blue Collars (which includes managing to get into the Final Three, with himself, his two most trusted allies, Kelly and Dan).


Here's some guessing (no spoilers; I don't follow them anyway) if Mike makes it to the end:

Final Three: 01. Mike (Blue Collar); 02. Kelly (Blue Collar); 03. Dan (Blue Collar)
04. Carolyn (White Collar)
05. Sierra (Blue Collar)
06. Tyler (White Collar)
07. Rodney (Blue Collar)
08. Hali (No Collar)
09. Joe (No Collar)
10. Jenn (No Collar)
11. Will (No Collar)
12. Shirin (White Collar)

My guess is that, under these circumstances, Mike would figure to take apart No Collar at first. Granted, sending out Shirin first doesn't make it look that way. But her vote-out, into No. 12, would come from a consensus of people not wanting Shirin in the game any longer. Then, when eleven people remain, a Pagong-ing of No Collar originals would occur as the Blue Collars get the two surviving White Collars (Carolyn and Tyler) on board to take out the four No Collars (having them rank between Nos. 8 and 11). Then a somewhat layered effect occurs, between Nos. 4 and 7 where it's not a complete Pagong-ing of the two remaining White Collars as the back-stabbing Blue Collars figure they can lose Rodney at No. 7 (because the Final Three, and Sierra, like White Collar's Carolyn and Tyler more and, well, Rodney ain't worthy, they'd figure). Then Tyler goes out into No. 6 because, well, this keeps Sierra feeling, for the moment, okay (and she's gullible to think that Dan isn't making it to the end). Then Blue Collar's Final Three sucker-punches Sierra into No. 5, given their preference for Carolyn. That way, they can assign Carolyn into the No. 4 slot (and she certainly came a long way!).


What I would think would be awesome is this:

Final Three (alphabetically): Carolyn (White Collar), Joe (No Collar), and Mike (Blue Collar)
04. Will (No Collar)
05. Sierra (Blue Collar)
06. Jenn (No Collar)
07. Rodney (Blue Collar)
08. Dan (Blue Collar)
09. Kelly (Blue Collar)
10. Tyler (White Collar)
11. Hali (No Collar)
12. Shirin (White Collar)

Shirin goes out into No. 12, the first with the merge, because she is not supported by anyone. Too many people remain in the game. And no one's endgame seems perceivably compelling with including Shirin. After that remains 11. Despite conflicts, Blue Collar keeps their five together, and decide it's time to send out a No Collar. Blue Collar's Mike is more comfortable with No Collar's Joe over Hali, due to Joe siding with him to upset Rodney (when they eliminated White Collar's Joaquin prior to the merge), and Mike opts to eliminate the latter. (They don't like No Collar's Hali as much as her friend Jenn. And they don't know that Jenn has a hidden immunity idol.) After that, Mike, still in divide-and-conquer [others] mode, doesn't want both White Collar's Carolyn and Tyler remaining and, well, his Blue Collar mates Kelly and Dan like Carolyn … so Tyler, who is likable but not as likable to them as is Carolyn, loses out into No. 10.

With five remaining Blue Collars having the advantage over four who didn't originate with Blue Collar … the original Blue Collar members figure they've got it easy. They target No Collar's Jenn to finish at No. 9. But, Jenn surprises them with her hidden idol. The non-Blue Collars, figuring that Mike (who, by then, has found his own hidden idol) is leading his original tribe and is targeting Jenn, decide to counter by taking out Mike's No. 1 ally. At tribal, the Blue Collars figure their targeted member will be Dan. If not Dan, it will be the likewise obnoxious Rodney. Turns out that Kelly gets the vote … and loses out. This deflates Mike.

With eight remaining members, No Collar's Joe finds a hidden immunity idol. By then everyone knows it's supposedly four Blue Collars vs. four non-Blue Collars. So, when they go to Tribal it will be a head-to-head. But, No Collar's Jenn persuades Blue Collar's Sierra that it is now time for her take revenge on those Blue Collars who wronged her. Sierra is thinking, "God, I'd like to take out both Dan and Rodney—and not go to the following tribal because this upcoming one would be a 2-for-1." Jenn tells Sierra she gets to choose. Turns out Sierra wants Dan gone before Rodney. This sits well with the non-Blue Collars who wants Mike to no longer have his other ally. So, Dan loses out into No. 8.

At the next immunity challenge, Blue Collar's Mike wins. Now, with two idols, the non-Blue Collars definitely can't eliminate him yet. So, out goes Rodney into No. 7. With the No. 6-ranked vote-off is the last chance to play a hidden immunity idol. Mike plays it. Prior to tribal council, Jenn is ready to dump Sierra. But, she notices Mike and Carolyn connecting. So, Jenn lets that momentary feeling slide. Mike persuades White Collar's Carolyn to back Sierra, so they both can go further; and that they, in order to get the end of the game, need to eliminate Jenn. At this point, no one cares about No Collar's Will, who hasn't been an immunity threat and hasn't spearheaded any moves let alone any game-changers. The No Collars make sure Will is with them. While Carolyn is now with Mike, he wins immunity and gives it the hidden idol to Carolyn at tribal council. Carolyn can't get voted out into No. 6. Those voting for Carolyn to lose out are No Collar's Joe, Jenn, Will, and Blue Collar's Sierra. The votes don't count. Mike and Carolyn put their votes to Jenn and that eliminates Jenn at No. 6.

The Finale has five remaining: White Collar's Carolyn, No Collar's Joe and Will; and Blue Collar's Mike and Sierra. With five remaining, Mike is comfy knowing that he curried favor with Carolyn and that Sierra now has no one else because the No Collar men are sticking together. Mike and Carolyn initially plan to back Sierra with the vote to eliminate one of the No Collar men. But, it turns out No Collar's Joe wins immunity. So the choice becomes—Sierra vs. Will. Joe tries to get Sierra to side with Will and him to eliminate Mike. Sierra, scatter-brained throughout much of the game, waffles like Chrissy did in the 2003 Survivor: The Amazon. It's crunch time. It's beyond ridiculous. Then Mike approaches Joe and suggests they just eliminate the swing vote[r]. Losing out into No. 5: Sierra.

In the Final Four, everyone is threatened by Joe who, frankly, hasn't screwed over anyone. Will intends to back Joe. But, Mike and Carolyn tell Will that he get into the Finals … with them. But, Will would have to vote Joe out to No. 4. Seems logical. Will agrees. Problem: Joe wins the last immunity challenge. After Will admits to Joe that Mike and Carolyn approached him, Joe feels hurt. But, having immediately recovered, Joe backs Will while Mike and Carolyn back the former (who is targeted). On the re-vote, Carolyn still backs Mike. This leads to a tiebreaker challenge between Will and Mike. Will, who has never won any challenge, does the expected: he loses.

The Final Three are White Collar's Carolyn, Blue Collar's Mike, and No Collar's Joe. This promises to be a hell of a finish as everyone knows that Carolyn, who receives zero jury votes, transforms this Final Three into a Final Two. Who will win?

 

[CoolBlue71]

For the best analysis/example of a winner's edit see...pretty much ALL of slipintothefog's posts last season. He totally nailed it.

In other news, I'm amused that fans are still debating why Sierra ultimately went with Mike & Dan when she seemed to get along with Joaquin. To me the answer is so obvious:

Can't blame you there, girl.

Joaquin fucked it up by bromancing the stone Rodney.

Had he not done that, it would not have chased away Sierra.

What also went down was the insistence of targeting Joe.

Mike told Kelly a while ago he doesn't actually trust Rodney. (This was prior to the vote-out of Lindsey.)

Neither Joaquin or Rodney knew how to play Survivor. They're good-looking (Rodney, with the body; Joaquin with the face along with the body); but they both had no clue.

 

[RRUGER]

Joaquin fucked it up by bromancing the stone Rodney.

Had he not done that, it would not have chased away Sierra.

What also went down was the insistence of targeting Joe.

Mike told Kelly a while ago he doesn't actually trust Rodney. (This was prior to the vote-out of Lindsey.)

Neither Joaquin or Rodney knew how to play Survivor. They're good-looking (Rodney, with the body; Joaquin with the face along with the body); but they both had no clue.

yup so true

there goes my bromance.

rodneys face was priceless at tribal c

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Since you're good at reading winners edits slip, what do you think about the early scenes of Mike yelling at everyone for not working hard enough? Usually that kind of edit presages an early boot or someone who clearly can't win because they've pissed people off (and I'm clinging to that slender reed of hope). But since we haven't seen anything like that lately, could they just be building a redemption edit for Mike? Or were they arguing that the rest of his tribemates were lazy? I also wouldn't put it past Probst at the reunion to be all, "That's just your hard working blue collar spirit!"

Joaquin fucked it up by bromancing the stone Rodney.

I'm still SO disappointed the three on-Blue Collar guys didn't just band together with Sierra as the vengeful flipper to boot the Blue Collar d-bags. The opportunity was just lying there waiting for them and they fucked it all up. I mean, you're right, Joaquin fucked it all up, but where the fuck was Tyler? If he has any game, he should've been all over that play to put himself in the majority alliance of underdogs (which he claims to want) AND keep his bro from hooking up with another bro.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

For instance, some people are still convinced Jenn has a winning edit while others dismissed her weeks ago for how the show portrayed her coldly dismissing the deaf Nina. (Portraying the winner as negative in ways unrelated to strategy, or as morally wrong/disagreeable, are generally no-nos to the Survivor editors.)

To be fair though, Jenna Morasca and the Mean Girls were similarly shown to be insensitive to Christy (also hearing impaired) and she won.

 

[slipintothefog]

2003 was still in the formative years of reality TV, though, and fans threw a TON of shit at the show for Jenna's win/edit. If you notice, Jenna was pretty much the first and last winner to be presented as objectionable by the edit in the ways she was portrayed.

It did not help that the edit built up Matt as a super heroic underdog who... um... got crushed in a 6-1 blow-out against the spoiled, whiny lazy sorority girl who was mean to the deaf girl. Yeah, Survivor has never tossed the edits of their winners in the trash bin to that extent ever again.

(I think Natalie White might be used as a counter point here, so preemptively I'd just like to point out that Samoa presented Russell as negative and objectionable throughout while Natalie, although underedited, was framed as a positive heroic foil to him. It's just that their screentime was so unbalanced that the fans bought into Russell because he was the only thing shown for 99% of that season.)

 

[Sgt Pepper]

I do remember them presenting Matt as a bit creepy (Christie actually called him that once) and as a pawn in Rob's terrific gameplay, so that definitely undercut is edit, but yeah that's still no match for Jenna & Heidi coming across like evil stepsisters. That's interesting. I hadn't considered that they changed their editing tactics after Jenna, but going through the list of winners, I see that you're right. Damnit, I guess Jenn is out.

I'm just looking for any reason for Mike not to win. What about Joe? They certainly went out of their way to show Joe being sympathetic toward Nina and talking about his mother's experience with the deaf community, but on the other hand, they also made a big point that he was the one who fucked up as team leader with the challenge instructions to Nina.

 

[slipintothefog]

Unfortunately I think Hali is our best bet for a non-Mike winner which is kind of sad when you think about it since her edit's not great (I don't think anybody's is a slam dunk this season so far, but that makes it all the more fun). Still, she has a ton of unnecessary focus when traditionally she'd be underedited fluff.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

I would love that outcome, especially if Hali and Mike were both in the F3 and she crushed him with jury votes, thereby making Probst's head explode. But since Probst has been going on and on about this being a great season, I'm guessing that translates to a blue collar person winning.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

I am totally on Team Shirin now after her rant against "Merica", rednecks and Sarah Palin. I'm sure that clip gave Mark Burnett an apoplexy. AWESOME.