Survivor Samoa

[TeatimeForLoser]

^ See I actually think Laura, Monica, and Kelly are Natalie's best bets for votes, plus obviously Brett... I think the editors showed us her being all buddy buddy with them for a reason, which was to explain why they eventually cast their votes for her at the end. Which, based on editting, not spoilers, I'm pretty sure the final three will be Mick, Jaison, and Natalie, and Natalie will win, getting votes (at least) from Monica, Kelly, Laura, Brett, Russell, and probably Shambo as well if Russell is on the jury.

 

[That70sJoe]

^ See I actually think Laura, Monica, and Kelly are Natalie's best bets for votes, plus obviously Brett... I think the editors showed us her being all buddy buddy with them for a reason, which was to explain why they eventually cast their votes for her at the end. Which, based on editting, not spoilers, I'm pretty sure the final three will be Mick, Jaison, and Natalie, and Natalie will win, getting votes (at least) from Monica, Kelly, Laura, Brett, Russell, and probably Shambo as well if Russell is on the jury.

Good point about the women on the jury and ties to Natalie but I find it all dependent on how Natalie expresses herself during the final tribal council. If she's inarticulate or evasive, I don't see her getting THIS jury's majority of votes. Look at Amanda (China, Micronesia), She didn't ruffle any feathers yet froze in both finals. I could see it happening to Natalie and her sympathizers, respecting their "civic duty" as jurors, giving the mil to someone else. And she was shown to be religious this last episode and maybe that's foreshadowing...

 

[Sgt Pepper]

If Natalie gets votes from Laura, Kelly, Monica and Brett, it would be due to her own terrific social gameplay of course. And I would love to see Russell lose to her. Unfortunately, I think perception is too strong, and most of these people will perceive Russell as the alpha strategist (ugh) to Natalie's coat-tail rider (I don't personally believe either of those appellations is accurate, but that is how it will be perceived). Believing that at least 5 people on the jury would vote against Russell is believing that at least 5 people are perspicacious enough, intelligent enough, and liberated enough from the particular kind of sexism that plays out often enough on this show* and...I'm just not ready to give THIS cast (which couldn't even figure out how to eliminate a minority tribe of four) that much credit. There is always a paucity of logical interpretation on Survivor juries, and this jury ranks as one of the most inept.

At most, I think Laura and Monica could vote against Russell. And that's the absolute most I'm willing to predict against him.


* Note that while I agree with That70'sJoe that sexism is always prevalent on this show, I don't think it is as simple as "a women will always lose to a man" though of course the statistics reveal that occurrence as a majority of times. Sexism often occurs in more nuanced ways on reality shows -- and in life -- which is why it is so insidious. On Survivor, it plays out as the favoring of ideals that are assumed to be masculine priorities (winning challenges, brawn, leadership etc), the rewarding of women for only fitting gender-proscribed roles that are assumed to be honorable (the nurturing mother type etc), and the punishing of women for being sneaky, lying and/or manipulative whereas these traits are translated and credited as "strategic gameplay" in men. It's more that kind of thing and it's why Natalie will likely lose if Russell is in the finals.

 

[Ekim23]

First of, I am really LOVIN and enjoyin this season which might not be the case for everyone...

I cannot belive FOA FOA Came back after the merge ! even better than last season coz they kept Erinn for her unpopularity which is quite the opposite after last episode with Brett.

I'm thrilled Shambo is gone she was annoyin. I do think Russel was thinkin about the finale votes when he voted out shambo. She's dumb anyway, and her first words were "Foa Foa is really tight". So russel still has Shambo's vote anyway. And with only brett left from Galu, there's no problem of pissing one of the foa foa member off by voting him out of the gam "before shambo"

I agree with slipintothefog I LMAO eac episode with the "Oh My word".


At this point, I do think that Natalie can win the million dollar prize if she's agaisnt russell. Now there's not much possibilities anyway, and I don't see russ win this game.

But we'll see

I'd love a F4 with Brett / Nat / Mick & Russ
then Brett Out
Mick Out
Russ lose
nat wins

 

[TeatimeForLoser]

^ See, I absolutely agree with you in terms of juries in general being more inclined to vote for men than women (to second what you've said, because of a perception of traditionally masculine tactics as superior, rather than any particular concious gender perceptions), which is why I think more and more that it MUST be a Mick, Jaison, and Natalie final three, because Russell, great character though he is, has simply not been given a winner's edit.

I don't think we'll get to see Russell lose to Natalie in the sense of them going head to head against a jury, but I think Russell and Brett are dead set for a 5/4 finish (depending on whether or not Brett wins immunity at 5), but I do think that we've seen enough of a combination of her building personal bridges with jury members and her cooperating/participating in strategy that to me, it points to an explanation of the jury's votes. Like I said before, I think what will happen is she'll go into the final with Mick and Jaison, and beat them with AT LEAST 6 votes

Although, this doesn't rule out an Amanda style collapse, but we'll call that the x-factor and see how it goes.

Speaking of Amanda, she's my all time favourite Survivor tied with Courtney, here's hoping one of them can win it in HvsV!!!!

 

[TaggedGalaxy]

We also have to look at relationships with the jury members so far and we might have a good idea of how votes might go.

Mick: We have not been shown any relationships to any of the jury members, we have no ideas why or why not a jury member might vote for Mick, all we know is that "he's a nice guy," and he does well in challenges. He is as big of a follower as Natalie is, but the difference is Natalie and Russell are in it together and I truly believe they trust each other and are loyal to each other. Mick does not have this relationship with Russell and they both have talked about getting the other out. What makes Mick look worse than Natalie is that he isn't tight with Russell and did not take him out when he had two perfect opportunities to do so and talked about doing it but not following through, which makes him look like more of a follower than Natalie. The only jury connection we have seen is between Mick and his "rivalry" with Erik, but I don't think it is strong enough to get a vote from Erik.

Natalie: We have seen jury connections to Laura, Monica, and Kelly. Possible connections include Russell and Brett. I feel like the whole religion thing shown in the last episode was put there for a reason possibly to show why Brett votes for Natalie or vice versa. We have also seen Dave talk about religion, so for all we know Dave and Natalie bonded the same way Brett and Nat did - through religion. I can see Natalie getting votes if she makes it to the end.

Brett: We haven't seen much of Brett, so we haven't seen any relationships, so we can only assume the connections to the jury are because it is made up of Galu and they all seem to like him.

Russell: Russell has connections with almost everyone on the jury, which could be good or bad, they all have reasons to vote for him or against him if they decide to reward his aggressive game play, or vote bitter and punish it.

Jaison: Like Mick we haven't seen any connections to the jury. The only one I can think of is John, and Jaison's comments about not liking John. Possible connections include Russell, Natalie, and Mick. Out of those three I only see Mick voting for Jaison. I don't think Jaison will win.

 

[Ekim23]

NATALIE ! RUSSELL ! NATALIE ! RUSSELL

 

[That70sJoe]

* Note that while I agree with That70'sJoe that sexism is always prevalent on this show, I don't think it is as simple as "a women will always lose to a man" though of course the statistics reveal that occurrence as a majority of times. Sexism often occurs in more nuanced ways on reality shows -- and in life -- which is why it is so insidious. On Survivor, it plays out as the favoring of ideals that are assumed to be masculine priorities (winning challenges, brawn, leadership etc), the rewarding of women for only fitting gender-proscribed roles that are assumed to be honorable (the nurturing mother type etc), and the punishing of women for being sneaky, lying and/or manipulative whereas these traits are translated and credited as "strategic gameplay" in men. It's more that kind of thing and it's why Natalie will likely lose if Russell is in the finals.

More stats for you of the show's history:

• The 9 guys that won Survivor IN TOTAL got 51 out of 67 jury votes
  
• 27 of 37 males on the jury voted for these 9 guys that won
  
• 25 of 32 females on the jury voted for these 9 guys that won

I wish Natalie well. She'll need it.

 

[Ekim23]

Still, she's the last women standing... And thats a surprise because I would have never guessed that back to the beginning

 

[CoolBlue71]

My prediction is Natalie.

If Russell gets to the final, his millionaire income from the previous year will be exploited despite making his case for being a serious Survivor player.

Mick and Jaison will be targeted right away, in Final 5 (as will all the guys!), and one of them may lose at that point; but it's tricky. The question: What has either done, strategically, that would persuade others to vote them the million without relying on hostility directed at someone else.

Brett relies on immunity. Unless there's some Sugar-like maneuvers by Nat to bring him further. If he does go on an immunity idol run, Brett could be like Sugar's father figure, Bob, the winner of Gabon. But I don't think that'll happen.

With Natalie, I think her case is made for having set in motion the downfall of Galu, when she facilitated Erik's exit upon approaching Laura, Kelly, and Monica (remember: Natalie had just listened to Jaison say he'd prefer to outlast an obnoxious Erik, who was offensive in his approach to the two and Mick when he had instructed them to vote for a Monica exit; this took initiative and guts, both of which Nat has in spades). That one move, which occured at a time when Russell was on the outside trying to look in and had no say about the direction of the game (he unnecessarily played his idol at that Tribal Council), is what gave Foa Foa their reversal of fortune. Plus, being a socially graceful figure can make the difference in being an appealing selection for the win.

We have to predict one person? I'm going with Natalie.

 

[TaggedGalaxy]

Mick and Jaison will be targeted right away, in Final 5 (as will all the guys!), and one of them may lose at that point; but it's tricky. The question: What has either done, strategically, that would persuade others to vote them the million without relying on hostility directed at someone else.

They haven't done anything but ride Russell coattails this entire game, that is why I think if either of them make it to the end they won't win, I would be surprised if they got any votes, they had chances to make moves but they never took advantage of it. Mick even said that he wasn't playing as aggressively as Russell in front of the jury, how is that supposed to get their respect. I think if Mick makes it to the jury questioning he will be another Amanda and Stephen and just completely bomb during the questioning.

I think his answer to Jeff's question at tribal council will be what he will try to put into his speech if he makes it to the final three, he will try to say he was loyal to Foa Foa the entire time.

I think Russell and Natalie will take first and second place, I just hope Natalie gets first.

 

[falconfan]

THANK FUCKING GOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


That is all. (For Now)

 

[Spiff]

Big kudos to Erik for ending the game with his very impressive and eloquent speech. I think he succeeded in swaying the jury to not vote for Russell. I wanted Brett to win, but now I am at least glad that Russell did not.

 

[TaggedGalaxy]

Hate that Russell was trying to lessen Natalie's win, seriously asking her to give up the title of sole survivor was ridiculous. He's a sore loser he can't accept the fact that his game wasn't as great as he seems to think it was. Finding a bunch of idols doesn't equal great gameplay.

Congrats to Natalie, she deserved it.

 

[Aratron]

There you go

Russell is such a loser. I hope he...

spoilers about season 20

Spoiler

isn't like this in Season 20 when he supposedly loses again to Parvati/Sandra

 

[slipintothefog]

As soon as Russell burned Jaison and then made a deal that he obviously wouldn't keep with Brett, I knew that Russell was not going to win because he had betrayed deals with most of the jury. However, I thought that Mick would be the winner and not Natalie at that point because Natalie was so UTR for most of the season.

However, Natalie beating the Russhole is just HILARIOUS, and I'm watching the reunion right now and he's fighting to hold back his tears as he asks Natalie for the title, which makes it even funnier.

It's also nice to see a woman legitimately beat a man in Survivor again. The last two female winners were Parv and Danni who defeated other women, so that means the last time that a woman beat a man was Amber vs. Rob, and that was an outcome that wouldn't have happened in any other non-ASS season. The last time before that was Jenna M vs. Matt.

 

[Spiff]

Ugh, now I suppose Russell feels that he is the real sole survivor, since he won the Sprint vote. He of all people should know that the jury knew him better than the viewers. Everything that the jury members saw all season was obviously not edited out from them.

 

[Sgt Pepper]

Believing that at least 5 people on the jury would vote against Russell is believing that at least 5 people are perspicacious enough, intelligent enough, and liberated enough from the particular kind of sexism that plays out often enough on this show* and...I'm just not ready to give THIS cast (which couldn't even figure out how to eliminate a minority tribe of four) that much credit. There is always a paucity of logical interpretation on Survivor juries, and this jury ranks as one of the most inept.

At most, I think Laura and Monica could vote against Russell. And that's the absolute most I'm willing to predict against him.

Sexism often occurs in more nuanced ways on reality shows -- and in life -- which is why it is so insidious. On Survivor, it plays out as the favoring of ideals that are assumed to be masculine priorities (winning challenges, brawn, leadership etc), the rewarding of women for only fitting gender-proscribed roles that are assumed to be honorable (the nurturing mother type etc), and the punishing of women for being sneaky, lying and/or manipulative whereas these traits are translated and credited as "strategic gameplay" in men. It's more that kind of thing and it's why Natalie will likely lose if Russell is in the finals.

Lord do I have to eat some MAJOR CROW tonight, but let me tell you, crow never tasted this good! I am SOOOO glad I was wring because it was immensely satisfying watching that asshole lose to Natalie. And Russell's pathetic bitterness afterward was just the cherry on top and the final confirmation that being on the show was the most important thing in life to this loser.

Way to go Natalie!!!!!!!!!

 

[Sgt Pepper]

• The 9 guys that won Survivor IN TOTAL got 51 out of 67 jury votes
  
• 27 of 37 males on the jury voted for these 9 guys that won
  
• 25 of 32 females on the jury voted for these 9 guys that won

There is nothing more appealing than a guy with stats for games of social strategy. Please tell me you watch Big Brother also and please come sit by me during all these game viewings.

 

[TaggedGalaxy]

Hopefully next season won't focus on Russell, they won't have the argument of having boring people with a cast of all stars and some of the biggest characters to ever be on the show.