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The 2026 Midterm Elections, One Year Out, Looks Good for Democrats
- Thread starter CoolBlue71
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Probably NOT a pick up for the Dems, but great news that Stephanik has not only quit the race for governor, but has also announced she won't run in 2026.
Another one who hitched her star to Trump in the most cynical way possible and ended up with nothing really to show for it. Except looking shopworn.
I doubt if she will even get a long running gig as pundit, but we'll see.
Another one who hitched her star to Trump in the most cynical way possible and ended up with nothing really to show for it. Except looking shopworn.
I doubt if she will even get a long running gig as pundit, but we'll see.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
No.
I commonly use the word “pickup” when I could use the word “flip” or the words “party switch.”
2022 GOVERNOR OF NEW YORK 
Lee Zeldin 46.73%
Kathy Hochul 53.12%
️ Margin: D+6.39In 2022, Kathy Hochul was a Democratic hold with winning a first full term as Governor of New York. This followed the three midterm elections of 2010, 2014, and 2018 winner Andrew Cuomo.
In 2022, the popular vote for U.S. House from New York was D+11.71. (National: R+2.72—and a Republican pickup for control for the U.S. House,)
In 2024, the popular vote for U.S. House from New York was D+14.69. (National: R+2.56—with Republican pickups for U.S. President and control for the U.S. Senate.)
In those two U.S. House elections from New York, there was a Democratic tilt vs. the nation of +14.43 and +17.25 percentage points. If the 2026 Democratic pickup for control of at least the U.S. House is won by at least +3 percentage points…it is going to be likely 2026 New York ends up with a U.S. House popular vote of nearly +20.
A conservative estimate is that a 2026 Kathy Hochul gets re-elected Governor of New York by at least D+16—an approximate 10-point increase going from 2022 to 2026—but with a 2026 that would be a bad year for Donald Trump’s Republican Party…she may end up winning by +20 points or better; possibly reaching 60 percent while her losing Republican challenger misses reaching 40 percent.
(I sense that New York #17’s Republican incumbent, Mike Lawler, will get unseated by his Democratic challenger.)
The decision to drop out, by Elise Stefanik, is not surprising.
Sources:
2022 New York gubernatorial election - Wikipedia
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I wasn't referring to the governor's race but the congressional seat.
She never was a contender for governor, but now that she is leaving Congress, I suspect that the GQP will run someone that would beat any Democrat in her district...hence, ,not possibility of a Dem pick-up
with her departure.
She never was a contender for governor, but now that she is leaving Congress, I suspect that the GQP will run someone that would beat any Democrat in her district...hence, ,not possibility of a Dem pick-up
with her departure.
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
UPDATE: 2026 UNITED STATES SENATE IS A TOSSUP
Two months have passed since I wrote and posted this topic.
I am rating the 2026 United States Senate elections a Tossup.
(I rate the 2026 United States House of Representatives as a Likely Democratic Pickup.)
You can refer to the above, opening-post map and focus especially on the states appearing in yellow. (They are currently in the column for the Republicans.)
Probable order:
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Ohio
51. Iowa (perhaps the Tipping-Point state and seat)
52. Alaska
53. Texas
Beyond 53:
54. Florida
55. Nebraska
56. South Carolina
My guess, here in January 2026, in a scenario in which the 2026 Democrats do succeed in winning majority-control pickup for the United States. They would reach that outright 51st seat. They would number between 51 to 53 seats. Good for 51 to 53 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate. Historically, when both houses flip to the White House opposition party, in the same midterm election cycle, a higher percentage of seats tend to be won over for U.S. House.
Related material:
www.newsweek.com
Two months have passed since I wrote and posted this topic.
I am rating the 2026 United States Senate elections a Tossup.
(I rate the 2026 United States House of Representatives as a Likely Democratic Pickup.)
You can refer to the above, opening-post map and focus especially on the states appearing in yellow. (They are currently in the column for the Republicans.)
Probable order:
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Ohio
51. Iowa (perhaps the Tipping-Point state and seat)
52. Alaska
53. Texas
Beyond 53:
54. Florida
55. Nebraska
56. South Carolina
My guess, here in January 2026, in a scenario in which the 2026 Democrats do succeed in winning majority-control pickup for the United States. They would reach that outright 51st seat. They would number between 51 to 53 seats. Good for 51 to 53 percent of the seats in the U.S. Senate. Historically, when both houses flip to the White House opposition party, in the same midterm election cycle, a higher percentage of seats tend to be won over for U.S. House.
Related material:
Mary Peltola’s chances of beating Dan Sullivan in Alaska: Polls
Democrats are hoping to flip the Senate in November 2026 in a move that would restrain President Trump's legislative agenda.
www.newsweek.com
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We'll see whether:
A. US voters thrill to the drumbeat of a war they only have to watch on TV as they seize one territory after another
B. Whether there are elections at all.
I think the first is likely and the call will be to support a wartime regime of Republicans.
I think there is an increasing chance that TrumpCo. will have evertthing they need with the assistance of the Republican House...to suspend 2026 Congressional elections. with the consent of all the members who wnat to keep their jobs on both sides of the aisle.
A. US voters thrill to the drumbeat of a war they only have to watch on TV as they seize one territory after another
B. Whether there are elections at all.
I think the first is likely and the call will be to support a wartime regime of Republicans.
I think there is an increasing chance that TrumpCo. will have evertthing they need with the assistance of the Republican House...to suspend 2026 Congressional elections. with the consent of all the members who wnat to keep their jobs on both sides of the aisle.
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Well, this month must be seen as a disaster for the GQP candidates in swing districts.
State murder, a government cover-up attempt...and Barbara Jordan's old seat won by a Democrat in a special election in Texas.
But the question...and I think we know the answer...is whether the seat is still winnable under the re-districting designed to deny Texas Dems a voice in Congress.
apnews.com
State murder, a government cover-up attempt...and Barbara Jordan's old seat won by a Democrat in a special election in Texas.
But the question...and I think we know the answer...is whether the seat is still winnable under the re-districting designed to deny Texas Dems a voice in Congress.
Democrat Christian Menefee wins election for US House, narrowing GOP's slim majority
Democrat Christian Menefee has won a Texas U.S. House seat in a special election that will narrow Republicans’ already-slim majority.
apnews.com
CoolBlue71
JUB Addict
Tuesday, February 10, 2026—I am considering the following two scenarios for overall majorities outcomes for the 2026 United States midterm elections.
Scenario A:
• Democratic pickup for U.S. House
• Republican hold for U.S. Senate
• Republican hold for U.S. Governors
Scenario B:
• Democratic pickup for U.S. House
• Democratic pickup for U.S. Senate
• Democratic pickup for U.S. Governors
Effective with most recent election cycles (position for the White House opposition Democratic Party):
• 2024 U.S. House: 215 of 435 seats; equivalent of 49.42%
• 2024 U.S. Senate: 47 of 100 seats; equivalent of 47.00%
• 2025 U.S. Governors (scheduled were New Jersey and Virginia): 24 of 50 states; equivalent of 48.00%
I am gradually inching toward Scenario B as I rate their current likelihood as follows:
• U.S. House: Strongly Likely Democratic Pickup
• U.S. Senate: Tossup
• U.S. Governors: Tossup
The 47 to 48 to 49.42 percents of established strength—from prior applicable election cycles—for the Democrats, looking to what will play out here in 2026, suggests that a linear-like national shift on all three counts (again, U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors) may deliver pickup majorities with each. In other words: a sweep.
Also Noteworthy:
I am changing some of the probable order for potential Democratic pickups for a scenario in which the U.S. Senate can switch from Republican to Democratic control.
Current number is 47.
Beginning at No. …
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Alaska
51 and 52. Ohio or Texas (Tipping-Point State and Seat)
51 and 52. Texas or Ohio
53 and 54. Iowa or Nebraska
53 and 54. Nebraska or Iowa
Consideration of where these states ranked, for the 2024 Democrats, carried or not carried for U.S. President:
48. Maine (#14, carried)
— Carried were 19 states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, and 226 electoral votes —
49. North Carolina (#25, not carried as is the true for remainder of listed states)
50. Ohio (#27)
51. Alaska (#29)
52. Iowa (#30)
53. Texas (#31)
54. Nebraska (#37)
Since 1992, the average number of states carried for U.S. President were 29. Republicans, who prevailed, averaged 30 carried states. Democrats, who prevailed, averaged 28 carried states. Winning Republicans George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states, in their first-term election wins, followed by 31 states, in their re-elections. Winning Democrats varied: Bill Clinton carried 32 followed by 31 states; Barack Obama carried 28 followed by 26 states; and Joe Biden carried 25 states. This is why I listed those potential 2026 Democratic pickups for U.S. Senate to include where they ranked, for U.S. President, for the 2024 Democrats.
Scenario A:
• Democratic pickup for U.S. House
• Republican hold for U.S. Senate
• Republican hold for U.S. Governors
Scenario B:
• Democratic pickup for U.S. House
• Democratic pickup for U.S. Senate
• Democratic pickup for U.S. Governors
Effective with most recent election cycles (position for the White House opposition Democratic Party):
• 2024 U.S. House: 215 of 435 seats; equivalent of 49.42%
• 2024 U.S. Senate: 47 of 100 seats; equivalent of 47.00%
• 2025 U.S. Governors (scheduled were New Jersey and Virginia): 24 of 50 states; equivalent of 48.00%
I am gradually inching toward Scenario B as I rate their current likelihood as follows:
• U.S. House: Strongly Likely Democratic Pickup
• U.S. Senate: Tossup
• U.S. Governors: Tossup
The 47 to 48 to 49.42 percents of established strength—from prior applicable election cycles—for the Democrats, looking to what will play out here in 2026, suggests that a linear-like national shift on all three counts (again, U.S. House, U.S. Senate, and U.S. Governors) may deliver pickup majorities with each. In other words: a sweep.
Also Noteworthy:
I am changing some of the probable order for potential Democratic pickups for a scenario in which the U.S. Senate can switch from Republican to Democratic control.
Current number is 47.
Beginning at No. …
48. North Carolina
49. Maine
50. Alaska
51 and 52. Ohio or Texas (Tipping-Point State and Seat)
51 and 52. Texas or Ohio
53 and 54. Iowa or Nebraska
53 and 54. Nebraska or Iowa
Consideration of where these states ranked, for the 2024 Democrats, carried or not carried for U.S. President:
48. Maine (#14, carried)
— Carried were 19 states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia, and 226 electoral votes —
49. North Carolina (#25, not carried as is the true for remainder of listed states)
50. Ohio (#27)
51. Alaska (#29)
52. Iowa (#30)
53. Texas (#31)
54. Nebraska (#37)
Since 1992, the average number of states carried for U.S. President were 29. Republicans, who prevailed, averaged 30 carried states. Democrats, who prevailed, averaged 28 carried states. Winning Republicans George W. Bush and Donald Trump carried 30 states, in their first-term election wins, followed by 31 states, in their re-elections. Winning Democrats varied: Bill Clinton carried 32 followed by 31 states; Barack Obama carried 28 followed by 26 states; and Joe Biden carried 25 states. This is why I listed those potential 2026 Democratic pickups for U.S. Senate to include where they ranked, for U.S. President, for the 2024 Democrats.
NotHardUp1
What? Me? Really?
The problem is, even if Democrats sweep the Congress, they won't have a supermajority and will be stuck with only talking about bills and facing a certain string of vetoes from the president, none of which they will be able to override, just like they won't be able to convict if there is an impeachment.
The fact that such a large percentage of Republicans still support the president IS the problem. They don't view morality as a problem. They don't view legality as a problem. They don't view unconstitutionality as a problem. They don't view treason as a problem. It's raw power. They simply do not care as long as they retain power.
They've taken out a Contract on America.
The fact that such a large percentage of Republicans still support the president IS the problem. They don't view morality as a problem. They don't view legality as a problem. They don't view unconstitutionality as a problem. They don't view treason as a problem. It's raw power. They simply do not care as long as they retain power.
They've taken out a Contract on America.
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So I can't tell whether Talarico will be a good choice for the Dems...I like both Crockett and him for different reasons.
If Cornyn wins, I am not hopeful for Talarico, but if Paxton wins, then I think the Dems have this seat.
If Cornyn wins, I am not hopeful for Talarico, but if Paxton wins, then I think the Dems have this seat.
Talarico wins, which I think is a good choice. I like both of them but, in my view, he has a much better chance of winning in November which the important thing.
Cornyn and Paxton are headed for a run-off. I hate both of them. But Paxton is thoroughly corrupt and people know that, which might be an advantage for Talarico if Paxton is the candidate. Don't know.
Cornyn is like the devil you know. I don't know where either plays in the minds of Texas voters.
Cornyn and Paxton are headed for a run-off. I hate both of them. But Paxton is thoroughly corrupt and people know that, which might be an advantage for Talarico if Paxton is the candidate. Don't know.
Cornyn is like the devil you know. I don't know where either plays in the minds of Texas voters.
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Ken Paxton and John Cornyn will go to a May runoff election for the Republican nomination for US Senate. Cornyn, the incumbent, spent over $40 million on ads against Paxton, however the race was very close.
Discussed in the "not returning to Congress" thread, Rep Tony Gonzales [R-TX] will also go to a runoff against his far right opponent who is a gun rights activist.
Last year, the Texas Legislature voted to put the Ten Commandments on the wall of every public school classroom in Texas. Apparently, they need to post the Commandments in their Republican primary voting booths!
And it's not just Texas Republicans. In Arkansas, one of the candidates for sheriff is up on murder charges and he still won his primary last night!
Discussed in the "not returning to Congress" thread, Rep Tony Gonzales [R-TX] will also go to a runoff against his far right opponent who is a gun rights activist.
Last year, the Texas Legislature voted to put the Ten Commandments on the wall of every public school classroom in Texas. Apparently, they need to post the Commandments in their Republican primary voting booths!
And it's not just Texas Republicans. In Arkansas, one of the candidates for sheriff is up on murder charges and he still won his primary last night!
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Talarico reminds me a lot of LBJ's aide Bill Moyers, who was a Baptist minister, although the Texas Democrats would argue that most of Talarico's positions are more middle-of-the-road than Moyers.
Talarico did have a couple of stumbles in the run-up to the primary. He didn't appeal to younger voters in the way that Crockett did. He also made a comment about the mediocrity of Colin Allred, a handsome former Baylor football player who briefly played in the NFL. Allred notably did not exceed 50% his primary last night for the US House, even though he previously served in the US House until 2024 when he attempted to run against Ted Cruz for US Senate, so the "mediocre" comment might have been on the mark.
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Remember Rep Dan Crenshaw [R-TX]? A few election cycles ago, he was the darling of the Republican Party - a war veteran who was wounded in an IED attack in Iraq, a Navy Seal and a masters degree from Harvard with two bronze stars and a purple heart? He was elected to the US House in 2018.
Trump didn't endorse him. He lost his primary last night to another far-right extremist.
That district - Tx US House 2 - was redrawn by the Texas Legislature as part of Trump's demands to redistrict in an off-census year.
His opponent, Steve Toth, is a 65 year old member of the Texas Legislature who is a former pastor (red flag!). And he probably doesn't look as good shirtless as Crenshaw did.
Trump didn't endorse him. He lost his primary last night to another far-right extremist.
That district - Tx US House 2 - was redrawn by the Texas Legislature as part of Trump's demands to redistrict in an off-census year.
His opponent, Steve Toth, is a 65 year old member of the Texas Legislature who is a former pastor (red flag!). And he probably doesn't look as good shirtless as Crenshaw did.
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Crenshaw has been a real disappointment...and I see how he no longer appeals to the hard core base who are coming out to vote in the GQP primaries.
Oops Dan.
Been nice knowin' ya. Start clearing out your desk. We know you will likely vote lockstep with Trump all the way to the end of your term, but maybe you might just vote to preserve democracy in the US? Because you just got fucked by the people determined to overthrow it.
Oops Dan.
Been nice knowin' ya. Start clearing out your desk. We know you will likely vote lockstep with Trump all the way to the end of your term, but maybe you might just vote to preserve democracy in the US? Because you just got fucked by the people determined to overthrow it.
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Jim Carville has a saying that the only thing you'll find in the middle of the road is a yellow stripe and road kill.
Crenshaw, in just 8 years, went from the future of the Republican party to road kill.
This is a part of the loss of reliable Republican and Democratic voters, as more and more moderates no longer affiliate themselves with either party and instead call themselves "independents". Texas is a closed primary State, so primary voters can only vote for an all-Democrat or all-Republican ballot. That structure favors extremist gun nuts, Jesus freaks and QAnon crazies in the Republican primary, and favors more green, granola-loving, left-leaning, social program friendly, minority voters in the Democratic primary. That leaves guys like Crenshaw in the middle of the road with the dead possums and dead armadillos.
