The expanding Israel-Hamas war

[TX-Beau]

What Iran's government does is entirely about what's happening inside Iran.

 

[rareboy]

I agree the press hypes any possible developing disaster, and many, many not developing.

But, Israel has more ego at stake than Iran. And the hawks will indeed expect a direct attack of some sort, no matter what the US is telling Israel not to do. It's just a matter of time. We'll see how much time. Israel doesn't let attacks go unanswered.

If Israel wanted to create the most bitter revenge, she would blow up drones being sold to Russia before they can be shipped to them. A double slap. Even Israel knows Putin was behind the timing of Hamas' war.

The Harkonnens are not the only ones with plans within plans.

Unfortunately, rrrZZZia now produces Shahed drones in a plant located inside rrrshja. They no longer need to import.

And Iran was producing them in Syria as well.

It will be interesting to see what they target...if anything, inside Iran.

I still think that Iran knew that all their missiles and drones would be wasted...shot down by Iraq and Jordan and the Iron Dome defense system.

This theatre was for some domestic purpose.

 

[Norri]

In addition to its domestic audience that bit of theatre was also for its proxies I assume, although having them all shot down is a bad look to that group.

 

[rareboy]

True this.

It would seem to indicate that Iran really is militarily pretty ineffective.

 

[TX-Beau]

True this.

It would seem to indicate that Iran really is militarily pretty ineffective.

Which is not a surprise to anyone. Iran poses no threat to the existence of Israel, yet we must all pretend that it does.

 

[KaraBulut]

Which is not a surprise to anyone. Iran poses no threat to the existence of Israel, yet we must all pretend that it does.

In the last big war between Iraq and Iran (that most Americans are unaware of), which lasted 8 years, there were over 1,000,000 people killed (some casualty estimates are as high as 2,000,000).

The population of Iran is 89 million. The population of Israel is 9.5 million. If there were an actual war, I know where I would put my money. But as long as Russia is backing Iran and the US is backing Israel, both sides don't want a war because they know how high the casualties would be.

This was a little show of force. Now we have to wait to see what the next piss in the pissing match will be.

 

[rareboy]

Which is not a surprise to anyone. Iran poses no threat to the existence of Israel, yet we must all pretend that it does.

The only point that Iran will pose an existential threat to Israel will be if they acquire a nuclear bomb. And then they will potentially be a threat to a number of regional players (see Iran/Iraq) above.

One of the reasons why rrrZZZia needs to be defeated in Ukraine is to reduce its influence in the Middle East and Africa as well. As long as RRzsja is using so many 2nd and 3rd world states as proxies in order to tie up the US and other western countries, nothing will change. And the current Iran/Kremlin axis is very detrimental because of the added layer of theocracy and nihilism that can develop in these autocracies.

 

[TX-Beau]

In the last big war between Iraq and Iran (that most Americans are unaware of), which lasted 8 years, there were over 1,000,000 people killed (some casualty estimates are as high as 2,000,000).

The population of Iran is 89 million. The population of Israel is 9.5 million. If there were an actual war, I know where I would put my money. But as long as Russia is backing Iran and the US is backing Israel, both sides don't want a war because they know how high the casualties would be.

This was a little show of force. Now we have to wait to see what the next piss in the pissing match will be.

Iran would have to go through Iraq and Syria to get to Israel. Israel would be pounding them the entire way. So would we. I don't see that happening.

 

[TX-Beau]

The only point that Iran will pose an existential threat to Israel will be if they acquire a nuclear bomb. And then they will potentially be a threat to a number of regional players (see Iran/Iraq) above.

One of the reasons why rrrZZZia needs to be defeated in Ukraine is to reduce its influence in the Middle East and Africa as well. As long as RRzsja is using so many 2nd and 3rd world states as proxies in order to tie up the US and other western countries, nothing will change. And the current Iran/Kremlin axis is very detrimental because of the added layer of theocracy and nihilism that can develop in these autocracies.

Well, we thought we were going to reduce tensions, and Obama tried, then the orange Toad succeed on Bibis's cock and fucked everything up.

Bibi wants his wars to save his own sorry hide, and so far, it's working. If Toad ever gets back in the Oval Office, we'll be bombing people over there too - indiscriminately.

 

[rareboy]

The reality is that Trump and most politicians really don't give a fuck about Israel...but they are terrified of losing the Jewish voters in the US.

 

[Norri]

Iran would have to go through Iraq and Syria to get to Israel. Israel would be pounding them the entire way. So would we. I don't see that happening.

Given their distance the armies won’t be involved nor will either navy have much to do so it’s all about air power, missiles and drones. Also I’d take 9.5 million Jews fighting for their lives over 89 million Persians who, excepting their leadership, don’t give a rats ass about Palestinians and their land problems any day.
Never believe an army can fight until you see them do it. The IDF as fought well in their wars, not Gaza, and the Iranian army has not taken the field for more than 30 yrs so a real question mark fighting for an unpopular government.
I’d take the Kurds in a fight any day but I’d pass on Iran.

 

[TX-Beau]

Any air war between Israel and Iran would be a very one-sided affair. I also don't think Russia's backing means much these days. Frankly I'm sick and tired of all involved.

 

[NotHardUp1]

Given their distance the armies won’t be involved nor will either navy have much to do so it’s all about air power, missiles and drones. Also I’d take 9.5 million Jews fighting for their lives over 89 million Persians who, excepting their leadership, don’t give a rats ass about Palestinians and their land problems any day.
Never believe an army can fight until you see them do it. The IDF as fought well in their wars, not Gaza, and the Iranian army has not taken the field for more than 30 yrs so a real question mark fighting for an unpopular government.
I’d take the Kurds in a fight any day but I’d pass on Iran.

And, it's always worth noting that the Persians are very proudly NOT Arab. And the Palestinian problem is most definitely seen quite differently by the Arab nations.

 

[KaraBulut]

The New York Times said it out loud.

Fundamentalism and Religious Nationalism is not just a problem in the US and Saudi Arabia...

The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel (Published 2024)

After 50 years of failure to stop violence and terrorism against Palestinians by Jewish ultranationalists, lawlessness has become the law.

www.nytimes.com

The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel
After 50 years of failure to stop violence and terrorism against Palestinians by Jewish ultranationalists, lawlessness has become the law.

...The interviews, along with classified documents written in recent months, reveal a government at war with itself. One document describes a meeting in March, when Maj. Gen. Yehuda Fox, the head of Israel’s Central Command, responsible for the West Bank, gave a withering account of the efforts by Bezalel Smotrich — an ultraright leader and the official in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government with oversight over the West Bank — to undermine law enforcement in the occupied territory. Since Smotrich took office, Fox wrote, the effort to clamp down on illegal settlement construction has dwindled “to the point where it has disappeared.” Moreover, Fox said, Smotrich and his allies were thwarting the very measures to enforce the law that the government had promised Israeli courts it would take...

A sample of three dozen cases in the months since Oct. 7 shows the startling degree to which the legal system has decayed. In all the cases, involving misdeeds as diverse as stealing livestock and assault and arson, not a single suspect was charged with a crime; in one case, a settler shot a Palestinian in the stomach while an Israel Defense Forces soldier looked on, yet the police questioned the shooter for only 20 minutes, and never as a criminal suspect, according to an internal Israeli military memo. During our review of the cases, we listened to recordings of Israeli human rights activists calling the police to report various crimes against Palestinians. In some of the recordings, the police refused to come to the scene, claiming they didn’t know where the villages were; in one case, they mocked the activists as “anarchists.” A spokesman for the Israeli National Police declined to respond to repeated queries about our findings.

The violence and impunity that these cases demonstrate existed long before Oct. 7. In nearly every month before October, the rate of violent incidents was higher than during the same month in the previous year. And Yesh Din, an Israeli human rights group, looking at more than 1,600 cases of settler violence in the West Bank between 2005 and 2023, found that just 3 percent ended in a conviction. Ami Ayalon, the head of Shin Bet from 1996 to 2000 — speaking out now because of his concern about Israel’s systemic failure to enforce the law — says this singular lack of consequences reflects the indifference of the Israeli leadership going back years. “The cabinet, the prime minister,” he says, “they signal to the Shin Bet that if a Jew is killed, that’s terrible. If an Arab is killed, that’s not good, but it’s not the end of the world.”

 

[rareboy]

The far right nationalists in Israel have only one goal.

To annihilate Palestinians and to seize Gaza.

 

[Norri]

The far right nationalists in Israel have only one goal.

To annihilate Palestinians and to seize Gaza.

And like the things the far right wants in the US they have the desire but lack the votes. Even if they had the votes I wonder exactly how they they envision clearing Gaza of over a million people who have no place to go. One thing the nazis learned is that killing that many people individually is difficult for humans to do so mass killing is the only answer and who really believes Israeli Jews are willing and ready for that?

 

[rareboy]

Part of the strategy is diaspora...to drive the Palestinians into Sinai where they would then be shipped out to any country that would take them or left to rot in refugee camps funded by the Arab states who certainly don't want the Gaza Palestinians at their door.

The proposed bombing of Rafah was hopefully the straw that broke the camel's back...but watch the Israeli's swoop in and start to seize and settle in Gaza...or to leave behind such scorched earth that no settlement is possible....like Putin is trying to do in Ukraine.

 

[Norri]

Egypt will never allow Israel to dump over a million Palestinians in Sinai thats a fantasy. If the Egyptians wanted to help those in Gaza they would stop blocking the border but helping them is not an Egyptian priority, they are as concerned about Hamas fighters slipping thru as the Israelis are.
Very few who come up with such loopy ideas as that are fully engaged in the world as it actually exists.

 

[NotHardUp1]

The New York Times said it out loud.

Fundamentalism and Religious Nationalism is not just a problem in the US and Saudi Arabia...

The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel (Published 2024)

After 50 years of failure to stop violence and terrorism against Palestinians by Jewish ultranationalists, lawlessness has become the law.

www.nytimes.com

The pendulum swings.

I remember this being discussed back in the 1980's when fundamentalism was on the rise in the U.S. Sociologists were stating then that it was an international phenomenon.

And, it's easy enough to see and predict. What is not easy is deciding where on the pendulum's arc one is. We don't know how far we will swing until we start to return to center.

In the U.S., we swung to the left for decades, and now, we're going the other way.

 

[rareboy]

All the signs point toward Raisi's death meaning nothing in this war. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard have all the power here. Raisi had no mandate from the people and no real power...it is as likely that the IRG had him killed in order to cement even greater power for themselves.