The expanding Israel-Hamas war

[TX-Beau]

Some good points...but Hamas as a political force is done.

It will now only be a guerilla warfare militia.

And I don't think the world is lining up behind Hamas...it is lining up behind all the innocent Palestians used as fodder by Hamas and Israel.

And Houthi are not the friends you necessarily want to have.

Sadly, Bibi has created at least two more generations of terrorists. I don't suppose that bothers him much. More excuses to be a butcher.

 

[Norri]

Some good points...but Hamas as a political force is done.

It will now only be a guerilla warfare militia.

I completely agree with you on these two points but I also believe Hamas wanted out of the governing business and wants to become just a gorilla force. They are lousy at governing and are not popular with the population. It is difficult for Hezbollah to keep those balls in the air but Hamas lacks the desire and without the burden of governing they will have a free hand to torment Israel.

Yes done as a political force but not done as a terrorist one.

 

[Norri]

I don't agree. I don't hear anyone claiming Hamas is suddenly vindicated of any of the blood on its hands. No one has found any new sympathy or started believing in what we all know is still a fucking bloody terrorist group - that started this with a bloody terrorist attack. Hamas cares no more for Palestinian children than Bibi does. I have no idea how the terrorists in charge of Hamas feel about anything, but no one is suddenly blowing up their phones with offers of support, now are they? They have lost support, not gained it. I also don't see American protests demanding we support Hamas.

Nor does Israel appear to be on any back foot; Israel has exploited the hostages to the maximum extent it possibly can. The right-wingers in charge are using them as an excuse to pursue ethnic cleansing, and it certainly doesn't appear to be making any good-faith attempts to retrieve them.

The sympathy is not for Hamas but for their cause and that’s a big plus for them but I agree they care nothing about the dead “martyrs” but then who cares for those poor beaten people? Not Egypt, not Jordan, not Syria and not even the Iranians.

And Israel was on its back foot at the beginning because of those hostages. No hostages and I believe the Israeli response would have been quick and brutal and not involve as many soldiers.

Hamas wasn’t loved before October 7th and they are not loved now……status quo.

 

[Norri]

I’d also like to add that Hamas has successfully brought Israel down to its level. Much of the world no longer sees a difference between the two at least tactically and that too is a huge plus for Hamas. The Israelis have lost their religion in a quest for vengeance another plus for Hamas.

 

[johaninsc]

 

[rareboy]

With Benny Gantz' resignation, Netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet.

I wonder what the impact will be on the survivability of his government?

 

[TX-Beau]

So what does that mean?

 

[rareboy]

I honestly don't know....Understanding politics in Israel is like understanding the work of the third house of an Ottoman ruler's harem. It is almost unknowable.

 

[KaraBulut]

Orthodox fundamentalists of all stripes are dangerous.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/06/middleeast/israeli-minister-smotrich-starve-gazans-intl/index.html

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said “it may be just and moral” to starve 2 million Gaza residents until Israeli hostages are returned, but “no one in the world would let us.”

In a speech on Monday at the Katif Conference for National Responsibility in the town of Yad Binyamin, the far-right minister said Israel should take control of distributing aid inside Gaza and claimed that Hamas was in control of distribution channels within the strip.

“It is impossible in today’s global reality to wage war – no one in the world would let us starve and thirst two million citizens, even though it may be just and moral until they return our hostages,” he said, adding that if Israel controlled aid distribution instead of Hamas, the war would have ended by now and the hostages would have returned.

Smotrich is part of Netanyahu's coalition and has been a major proponent of illegal Israeli land grabs in the West Bank.

 

[rareboy]

This guy is a full on genocidal monster...his extremism is already undercutting sympathy for Jews outside of Israel who also may face persecution.

When the survivors of holocaust create a holocaust...what moral ascendancy remains?

 

[Norri]

Mr. Smotrich has a peculiar idea of what waging war means, most people think of it as two sides fighting not one side engaging in the mass starvation of the other side.

Also I still think most Israelis don’t have stomach to watch such an event happen so world opinion is really a secondary concern for Mr. Smotrich.

It really is the religious who are the craziest of all.

 

[TX-Beau]

And the power mad. Which isn't necessarily a different category.

 

[KaraBulut]

It really is the religious who are the craziest of all.

And the Orthodox birthrate in Israel is about 7 children per woman. That's 3 times what the birth rate is for reformed and secular Jews and 2 times what the birth rate is for Arab women.

It doesn't bode well for the future of Israel.

 

[Alnitak]

And the Orthodox birthrate in Israel is about 7 children per woman. That's 3 times what the birth rate is for reformed and secular Jews and 2 times what the birth rate is for Arab women.

It doesn't bode well for the future of Israel.

The Haredi do, yes. But their population is not close to a majority, and won't be anytime soon. That is a 22nd century problem.

Israel was already trending rightwing in this century, because the newcomers tend to be religious Zionists, in contrast to the socialist Zionists of the early 20th century. Yesh Atid has managed to win some recent elections, but that is impossible now. Israel has been shoved deep into the right. The only way to manage this trend is the Supreme Court of Israel, which is liberal and has immense and unimpeachable power.

 

[KaraBulut]

The Haredi do, yes. But their population is not close to a majority, and won't be anytime soon. That is a 22nd century problem.

Israel was already trending rightwing in this century, because the newcomers tend to be religious Zionists, in contrast to the socialist Zionists of the early 20th century. Yesh Atid has managed to win some recent elections, but that is impossible now. Israel has been shoved deep into the right. The only way to manage this trend is the Supreme Court of Israel, which is liberal and has immense and unimpeachable power.

We're seeing in the US how a relatively small minority can have disproportionate power. Unlike the US which has a binary party system, the more parliamentary system in Israel results in more Faustian bargains that give the more right-wing and more Zionist factions leverage. That is exactly what is happening with Netanyahu and his coalition in Israel.

Israel traditionally had a larger coalition of liberal, secular or non-practicing Jews. That more secular coalition was in the range of 55-60%, which kept the State of Israel more moderate. That more liberal coalition has dropped to 45% of the population today, because of their lower birth rate and lower immigration rate. Because the secular coalition can no longer claim a simple political majority, it has opened the door for the 12% ultra-orthodox (the Haredi), the 40% of the population who are religious orthodox (dati and masorti) and the zionist immigrants to build the coalition which keeps Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet in power.

The growth of the ultra-orthodox population will not be linear. A single family with 7 children will be a family of 343 in just two generations if that birth rate stays constant. One generation ago, the Heredi were 10% of the population. They're now 12% of the population. By 2040, they will be 21%. By 2060 they will be 33%.

Complicating the demography of Israel is the high birthrate of the Arab population in Israel. The Jewish population has a birthrate that increased their numbers by 18% in the past decade. Meanwhile, the Arab population has increased 25% during that same period.

If these trends continue, Israel is going to look a lot less like Tel Aviv and more like Jerusalem. It means more radical Zionism. It means more oppression and suppression of the Arab population. It means even more fights over land and water. And it will elect more Netayahus.

 

[Alnitak]

We're seeing in the US how a relatively small minority can have disproportionate power. Unlike the US which has a binary party system, the more parliamentary system in Israel results in more Faustian bargains that give the more right-wing and more Zionist factions leverage. That is exactly what is happening with Netanyahu and his coalition in Israel.

Israel traditionally had a larger coalition of liberal, secular or non-practicing Jews. That more secular coalition was in the range of 55-60%, which kept the State of Israel more moderate. That more liberal coalition has dropped to 45% of the population today, because of their lower birth rate and lower immigration rate. Because the secular coalition can no longer claim a simple political majority, it has opened the door for the 12% ultra-orthodox (the Haredi), the 40% of the population who are religious orthodox (dati and masorti) and the zionist immigrants to build the coalition which keeps Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet in power.

The growth of the ultra-orthodox population will not be linear. A single family with 7 children will be a family of 343 in just two generations if that birth rate stays constant. One generation ago, the Heredi were 10% of the population. They're now 12% of the population. By 2040, they will be 21%. By 2060 they will be 33%.

Complicating the demography of Israel is the high birthrate of the Arab population in Israel. The Jewish population has a birthrate that increased their numbers by 18% in the past decade. Meanwhile, the Arab population has increased 25% during that same period.

If these trends continue, Israel is going to look a lot less like Tel Aviv and more like Jerusalem. It means more radical Zionism. It means more oppression and suppression of the Arab population. It means even more fights over land and water. And it will elect more Netayahus.

Ah, so the right wing in Israel is an odd coalition. The Haredi unlike US counterparts are passive and not very active in politics. Netanyahu is somewhat secular. He only puts on a kippah for show. Netanyahu is not popular. If the Supreme Court bans the bath salts right wing parties he will lose power for good. If the Haredi ever seek power Israel will turn into a Jewish Iran.

 

[KaraBulut]

Ah, so the right wing in Israel is an odd coalition. The Haredi unlike US counterparts are passive and not very active in politics.

They were. Now that they're going to be required to serve in the IDF, we'll see how long that lasts. They've historically cleaned up after the bombs. Let's see what happens when they, too, become the target.

Netanyahu is somewhat secular.

Only because he's a narcissist. Narcissists don't worship anyone but themselves.

Back when he was calling himself, "Ben Neta", he could claim the mantle of being "somewhat secular". Now, he's like Trump and like water- he'll conform to the shape of the vessel that will carry him.

He only puts on a kippah for show. Netanyahu is not popular. If the Supreme Court bans the bath salts right wing parties he will lose power for good. If the Haredi ever seek power Israel will turn into a Jewish Iran.

You have more faith in the Israeli judiciary than I do. We've already seen Netanyahu pull out the autocrat's playbook to try to weaken the Courts to save his own ass. Autocrats don't give up easily.

 

[Norri]

We're seeing in the US how a relatively small minority can have disproportionate power. Unlike the US which has a binary party system, the more parliamentary system in Israel results in more Faustian bargains that give the more right-wing and more Zionist factions leverage. That is exactly what is happening with Netanyahu and his coalition in Israel.

Israel traditionally had a larger coalition of liberal, secular or non-practicing Jews. That more secular coalition was in the range of 55-60%, which kept the State of Israel more moderate. That more liberal coalition has dropped to 45% of the population today, because of their lower birth rate and lower immigration rate. Because the secular coalition can no longer claim a simple political majority, it has opened the door for the 12% ultra-orthodox (the Haredi), the 40% of the population who are religious orthodox (dati and masorti) and the zionist immigrants to build the coalition which keeps Netanyahu and his far-right cabinet in power.

The growth of the ultra-orthodox population will not be linear. A single family with 7 children will be a family of 343 in just two generations if that birth rate stays constant. One generation ago, the Heredi were 10% of the population. They're now 12% of the population. By 2040, they will be 21%. By 2060 they will be 33%.

Complicating the demography of Israel is the high birthrate of the Arab population in Israel. The Jewish population has a birthrate that increased their numbers by 18% in the past decade. Meanwhile, the Arab population has increased 25% during that same period.

If these trends continue, Israel is going to look a lot less like Tel Aviv and more like Jerusalem. It means more radical Zionism. It means more oppression and suppression of the Arab population. It means even more fights over land and water. And it will elect more Netayahus.

I can’t help but notice Israel is the only western country that has an above replacement birth rate and is using its entire population to fight its war. (Excepting the orthodox) Neither Russia nor the Ukraine has done that and they are both losing population without the war. It’s worth keeping an eye on especially how it may effect Chinese behavior moving forward.

 

[KaraBulut]

I can’t help but notice Israel is the only western country that has an above replacement birth rate and is using its entire population to fight its war. (Excepting the orthodox) Neither Russia nor the Ukraine has done that and they are both losing population without the war. It’s worth keeping an eye on especially how it may effect Chinese behavior moving forward.

It's an interesting observation but it's misnomer to call what's happening in Gaza a "war". Israel has claimed to have killed 10,000 or more Hamas fighters, a figure that no one believes. When you've killed over 40,000 people and 2/3 of them were women and children, inviting the term "war" also invites the term "war crime".

The population changes in Israel probably more about the 6 million Jews in the diaspora that were exterminated in the early part of the 20th century than it is about the population of Israel.

The ultra-orthodox have a different agenda. It plays out every day on the streets of Jerusalem in the mini-conflicts between secular spaces and ultra-orthodox spaces and in settlements on the West Bank. It is the real conflict that most Americans are completely unaware of.

 

[Alnitak]

I can’t help but notice Israel is the only western country that has an above replacement birth rate and is using its entire population to fight its war. (Excepting the orthodox) Neither Russia nor the Ukraine has done that and they are both losing population without the war. It’s worth keeping an eye on especially how it may effect Chinese behavior moving forward.

Modern Israel is essentially Maccabean. Martialism was a dormant attribute of the Jewish nation since the last revolt against Rome in the 610s until the first Zionist defense forces were formed in the early 20th century. Through the intervening time Jews were seen as pacifist and passive, easily bullied and genocided.