U.S. Economy and its Mess

[rareboy]

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[rareboy]

 

[KaraBulut]

Remind me: why are we giving $600 to a rich person, again?

 

[KaraBulut]

It's always interesting to see what get broken when government does stupid things.

Here's an example.

Modelo, Corona sales plunge as demand among Hispanic consumers slips

Constellation Brands chief Bill Newlands said consumers are making fewer trips to buy beer and are spending less per trip, adding that the trend is most pronounced among Hispanic consumers.

nypost.com

Constellation Brands, which owns the Modelo and Corona beers in the US, lowered its full-year sales and profit outlook Tuesday, citing falling demand from Hispanic consumers.

Constellation President and CEO Bill Newlands said US purchases of high-end beers have declined over the past few months. Consumers are making fewer trips to buy beer and are spending less per trip, Newlands said.

The trend is most pronounced among Hispanic consumers, Newlands said. The company said in a recent conference call with investors that Hispanic buyers account for about half of Constellation’s business.

Since the beginning of the year, their stock has declined 42% from $244/share to $142/share.


This might inspire the MAGA faithful to rejoice but this is because of a lack of understanding of how patterns of consumer sales are part of the butterfly effect in a complex economy.

Since Trump took office, daily ICE arrests have gone from 85/day to 176/day. It is estimated that about 140,000 construction workers have been arrested- many rounded up at construction sites or at Home Depots. About 24% of the construction jobs in the US are staffed by undocumented day laborers. This has translated to an increase in delayed and unfinished construction projects.

Spanish language media is reporting on the impacts but English language media has been slow to pick up on the impacts. At a time when construction materials are up due to Trump's tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, at a time when hourly wages are at an all time high, at a time when business insurance rates are skyrocketing and at a time when interest rates on construction loans are 300% higher than they were before the pandemic.

These construction company owners and vendors have been inviting their members of Congress to their meetings. News reports show empty chairs with the members' names. Many of the members are Republicans.

Also impacted: truck driving schools. Many Mexican nationals were attending truck driving schools along the southern border to obtain a commercial driver's license. News reports estimate that about 50% of truck driving schools may close in the next year. Fewer truck drivers means increased transportation costs, higher grocery prices and supply shortages similar to what we saw after the pandemic.

Each of these workers were paying rent or a mortgage. They shopped at grocery stores. They bought gas at gas stations. They eat at fast food restaurants. And yes, they bought a lot of beer.

 

[rareboy]

Fortunately I think I had my investment manager screen for impacts in consumer product companies in the US and we dropped the most vulnerable before the impacts of
tariffs and mass deportations and lay-offs really took hold.

The US is getting what it voted for though.

 

[rareboy]

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[KaraBulut]

Idiocracy of the day.

Yesterday, the DOJ and Blondi were beating their chests and bragging that they had shut down a computer chip smuggling ring. The smugglers were exporting NVIDIA chips that the US does not allow the company to sell to China. The chips in question are advanced chips that are used in AI processing. If China were able to get their hands on the chips, they would be able to copy the chips and make them in Chinese factories. This would also allow the Chinese to catch up with US' current lead in AI.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/09/us-attorneys-office-southern-district-of-texas-prosecutors-nvidia-chips-h200-h100-smuggle-china.html

U.S. Authorities Shut Down Major China-Linked AI Tech Smuggling Network

Two businessmen are now in custody for allegedly violating U.S. export control and smuggling laws.

www.justice.gov

Today, Trump announced that he will allow NVIDIA to sell the chips to China. Supposedly, the NVIDIA is going to give the 25% of the sales to China. Basically, the US is now a mafia that takes "a cut" of corporate profits in exchange for "deals".

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/08/u-s-to-allow-nvidias-h200-sales-in-china-trump-confirms-00681619

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/u-china-hawks-trump-approved-161103425.html

This is what happens when idiots vote for idiots... a representative democracy where idiots represent idiots.... idiocracy.

 

[rareboy]

Bessent is one of the worst of the TrumpCo. liars club. Another one who lies reflexively, knowing that there is no way to fact check the figures any more.

Again, the goal is to make it so that no one beleives anything any more.

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[rareboy]

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[rareboy]

 

[rareboy]

This is really bad news...and there will be ripple effects felt through the whole market.

The collapse of a major grain company in Nebraska will likely trigger bankruptcies all the way down the line as farmers are stuck with unpaid bills.

$500M Nebraska grain giant collapses, leaving farmers unpaid - NewsBreak

The sudden failure of a $500M Nebraska grain giant has ripped a hole through the rural economy, leaving farmers, truckers, and local suppliers wondering if

www.newsbreak.com

 

[rareboy]

More and more, I feel that the US is going to slow roll into a recession.

Nearly 300 stores are set to close across the US in 2026. Here's the list. - NewsBreak

Macy's, Kroger, and Carter's are leading 2026 US retail store closures, citing long-term strategy and shifting consumer habits.

www.newsbreak.com

 

[KaraBulut]

The coming AI jobpocalypse and the powers behind it...

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/mit-study-finds-ai-can-already-replace-11point7percent-of-us-workforce.html

MIT study finds AI can already replace 11.7% of U.S. workforce

• Massachusetts Institute of Technology released a study that found that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market.
• The study was conducted using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which was created by MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
• For lawmakers preparing billion-dollar reskilling and training investments, the index offers a detailed map of where disruption is forming down to the zip code.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/11/trump-orders-government-to-fight-state-ai-laws-00687948

Trump signs AI order to shut down state laws

The White House wants to accelerate the technology — and is already triggering blowback from governors.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday mobilizing the federal government to fight state limits on the fast-growing artificial intelligence industry.

The move is intended to boost the growth of American AI companies, which have been eager for a national law rolling back the increasing number of state-level regulations that have cropped up around the technology.

The order drew overwhelming praise from the tech industry but a fast rebuke from critics, including lawmakers in both parties who say the federal government is not doing enough to address the dangers that AI poses.

 

[rareboy]

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[Kulindahr]

 

[Kulindahr]

 

[Kulindahr]