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US Midterm Election Results Live......Blow For Blow.

Sausy said:
Her tilt toward the Trump right was really disappointing. I know there's a lot of smart tactics in her seeming graciousness, as when Kyl decides to step down, the earlier the better to name Mc Sally to be able to run in 2020 with an advantage to complete the remainder of the late Senator John Mc Cain's term. She seemed better than that kind of desperation and sewer politics... hopes she learns because I just don't see another Arizona seat going to the Dems at this point. Don't forget Sinema , though having a liberal background, has been much more of a centrist in recent years and even when they go Democrat in Arizona, it's centrists and mildly liberal candidates who really have a chance at getting elected.
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Arizona's another schizo State- a large Latino population, a large Mormon population, a large population of wealthy retirees and a bunch of nutso Wild Wild West libertarians. If you want to get an idea of how crazy they are, read about their efforts to mortgage their Capitol building to cover a 1 year budget shortfall. :##:

Both candidates have potential and having two female Senators would be an interesting turn of events. And a Democrat and a Republican from Arizona might do their Jekyll-Hyde personality justice.
 
^ Truly pitiful and shameful.

“Once again, Donald Trump only sees the military as props. If it doesn’t benefit him, he’s not going to do it.”
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The GOP has also lost Reagan country...Orange County is now represented by Democrats.
 
KaraBulut said:
Arizona's another schizo State- a large Latino population, a large Mormon population, a large population of wealthy retirees and a bunch of nutso Wild Wild West libertarians.
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Arizona is trending away from the Republicans. That state plus Georgia. Except for 2004, when they were 6 points in their margins spread, the two states have been routinely within 5 point at least since 1992. (In 2016, they were 1.60 points in margins spread.) In 1992 and 1996, Arizona and Georgia carried differently; but, the margins were so small enough, both times, their spread was 5 points or less. So, if one was to pair states—here and there—Arizona and Georgia are now companion states.

2016 was a Republican pickup year for the presidency to Donald Trump. His margins in Arizona was +3.50. His margin in Georgia was +5.10. From the six [Republican] pickup states for Trump—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—he averaged a margin of +3.39. So, those states are showing a clear indication of trending away from the GOP.

In the 2018 midterm elections, both states delivered Democratic pickups on particular fronts which mattered: A Democratic pickup of the U.S. Senate seat in Arizona; a Democratic pickup, for Ann Kirkpatrick, with a margin close to the national one for the U.S. House seat of Arizona #02 (Kirkpatrick won with a margin in between +8.5 and +9. That is par with the Ds having won the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House); and Georgia #01 flipped Democratic for Lisa McBath having unseated Republican incumbent Karen Handel from a district which use to have as its congressman 50th speaker of the U.S. House Newt Gingrich.

In Arizona, Maricopa County, which spotted John McCain and Mitt Romney an extra 2 or 3 points above their statewide margins, gave Donald Trump a margin of +2.84 while he won statewide by +3.50. It has become a bellwether county to the state as it delivered a 2018 Democratic pickup to Kyrsten Sinema. Latest results (11.15.2018, @ 05:15 p.m. ET) have it that Arizona flipped Democratic for Sinema by +1.8 while Maricopa County also flipped Democratic for Sinema by +3.8. (Numbers are not final.)

In Georgia, the Atlanta area counties Cobb (Marietta), Gwinnett (Lawrenceville), and Henry (McDonough) became 2016 Democratic pickups for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976 (Cobb and Gwinnett) and 1980 (Henry). 2018 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams won all three counties. Cobb and Gwinnett flipped from 2014 Republican [re-elected Nathan Deal] to 2018 Democratic [Stacey Abrams].

The map is moving. The 2018 Democrats, with the presidency in the Republican column for Donald Trump, needed to score in states trending in their direction and poised to become [Democratic] pickup states with the next election cycle in which the presidency flips from the Republican to the Democratic column. (And, although I won’t get deeply into it, Texas is also key. The 32nd district, with Democratic challenger Collin Allred having unseated Republican incumbent Pete Sessions, also produced a margin quite close to the Ds’ win in the U.S. Popular Vote for U.S. House.)
 
CoolBlue71 said:
Arizona is trending away from the Republicans. That state plus Georgia.
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Georgia and Arizona have a lot in common. Rural areas that vote Republican; urban areas that vote Democratic. Racial disparty- Arizona having an increasing Latino population; Georgia having an increasing Black population.

Texas also has similar urban/suburban and growing Latino characteristics. It also has another thing in common with Arizona- libertarian-contrarians.

One thing that is unique about Arizona has to do with its shared border with Utah and Nevada: Mormons. There's over 400,00 Mormons in Arizona. Only Utah and Idaho have more LDS churches. The Mormon vote is critical in Arizona. There are analysts and Mormon leaders who have noted that one of the few US evangelical groups who haven't participated in the Faustian bargain with Trump. What is happening with Senator Flake is playing out with a lot of Mormons who are appalled at Trump's behavior and lack of moral compass.
 
rareboy said:
The GOP has also lost Reagan country...Orange County is now represented by Democrats.
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One of the casualties was one of Putin's arm-wrestling buddies (that's not a joke), Dana Rohrabacher, who had served in Congress for 15 terms... 30 years!
 
KaraBulut said:
One of the casualties was one of Putin's arm-wrestling buddies (that's not a joke), Dana Rohrabacher, who had served in Congress for 15 terms... 30 years!
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There are times when I trip over my own ignorance. Politics are incredible, and I don't mean good incredible.
 
So many tweets probably put his legs to sleep on the toilet. His syntax is garbled bye diarrhea.
 
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• Solid shades: Republican or Democratic holds
• Light shades: Republican or Democratic pickups​



Effective Friday, December 7, 2018 @ 11:00 p.m. ET: North Carolina #09 has become an issue. But, if that holds Republican, the above map is the outcome for the 2018 midterm elections for U.S. House.

This is going by the 2018 Democrats having flipped the U.S. House, with a net gain of +40 seats, and for a new majority of 235 to the 200 seats for the Republicans. Not counting North Carolina, this was achieved through 21 states.

Wikipedia has it the 2018 Democrats won the U.S. Popular Vote, for U.S. House, by +8.56. (Latest numbers, 12.07.2018 @ 11:00 p.m. ET: Republican 44.85% vs. Democratic 53.41%.) This was after the 2016 Republicans won by +1.08. (Result: Republican 49.11% vs. Democratic 48.03%.)

Dave Wasserman has been keeping track of this and posting on Twitter.

That +8.56 can still grow some more. It probably won’t hit +9.00. But, taking that +8.56, that meant a 2016-to-2018 national shift of +9.64. With a net gain of +40 seats, this would mean the 2018 Democrats won +4.14 net gains in seats with each percentage point nationally shifted in their direction.

The average from past midterm elections in which the U.S. House flipped to the White House oppostion party—in 1946, 1954, 1994, 2006, and 2010—were a historical average of +3.64 net gains in seats with each percentage point nationally shifted. So, the 2018 Democrats overperformed historical average.

Taking that +4.14, and that the 2018 Democrats needed a net gain of +23 seats to win a majority pickup of the U.S. House, the party ended up flipping the lower chamber by winning the popular vote by +4.46. Nate Silver had it figured the Democrats needed +5.5. I figured, whole-number estimate, +6.

What this ultimately means is the 2018 midterm election voters absolutely made a point to flip the House. They delivered a popular-vote margin and a net gain of seats which were nearly double, on both counts, than what was necessary for the 2018 Democrats to reach their new majority.
 
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