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What is new on the Gay Marriage front?

Kulindahr said:
So long as they might have been able to say the districts were dealing with different issues, like recognizing out-of-state marriages or whatever, they could have stalled some more.
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There are 24 lawsuits challenging the whole shebang in 17 states.

I don't have time to follow the other two dozen that deal with narrow issues, such as the one in Ohio. It's just too much.

But the recent flat statements that the one-man, one-woman status quo violates both the due process and equal protection clauses leaves no room I can see for fiddling around; their only stalling maneuver at this point that I see is to put a case or two on hold so they can hear several from different circuits all at once -- and that won't buy them much time, anyway.
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I agree with scream, that would delay it by a term maybe. There are six circuits with challenges right now. The 9th and 10th obviously, but the 4th is a big one, Pennsylvania in the 3rd, and then the 6th and 5th circuits as well. I don't think the Supreme Court will wait for the latter two, and we are not likely to win those anyway. Then there is the adverse ruling in the 8th. So having four or five circuit rulings is more than sufficient to provoke the justices to rule.
 
Pennslyvania in the 3rd would be the easiest for the court to punt on if we get a favorable ruling as all three states in that area would have gay marriage.
 
Alnitak said:
I meant they want to deal with an untenable situation, not necessarily that they want to get to the issue itself. You can't have split circuits on an issue like this. By October it is likely that we will have different opinions in three, as we already have an adverse judgment from the 8th going back to 2006 when some idiot tried to sue Nebraska, and even more from several districts. Anyway, on a high profile issue, that can't stand without review.
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Wasn't aware of a split at least yet. What circuit has found against a ban based on the federal Constitution? I was only aware of the 9th's ruling in Perry which was vacated by the SCOTUS.

If the 10th Circuit upholds the district judge's ruling in this case, then yes there would be split.
 
Ah, I see what you mean.

Yes I agree that's a good possibility. There's even a not insignificant chance that we win all of them, since the 10th Circuit denied the stay. Generally a stay is denied if the judges feel the plaintiff is unlikely to prevail in their appeal.
 
Two hearings for this week, one in West Virginia and the other in Texas, to discuss getting an early start to marriage equality in those states. A decision from Virginia on summary judgment could come at any time. Note: All three would consequently put a majority of Americans in marriage equality states.

In addition, the legislative session begins in Indiana. See Related thread: http://www.justusboys.com/forum/threads/415996-Indiana-Marriage-Amendment-End-of-an-Era
 
The whole 10th Circuit is ablaze with activity. There was New Mexico this past fall, then Utah, Oklahoma, there will be a petition in Colorado, a tax return lawsuit in Kansas, and a bill in Wyoming. I really don't see the Court of Appeals throwing cold water on it all.
 
A brief summary by state on current cases challenging marriage bans

Virginia, Arkansas, Texas, and West Virginia could get the go ahead at any time for immediate relief.

Michigan and Pennsylvania have outstanding trial dates, in February and June respectively.

No word yet on Kentucky, but one case Bourke v. Beshear will be done briefing a motion for injunctive relief on the 23rd.

The other cases in North Carolina, South Carolina, Oregon, Tennessee, Colorado, and Idaho have no clear progress, but the NC case has finished briefing.

Arizona was just filed, and the case in Louisiana was just refiled.
 
Alnitak said:
Gay rights leaders across the country smell the blood

Advocates hopeful rulings spell doom for Neb. gay marriage, civil unions ban

US: Tennessee same-sex marriage supporters encouraged by Oklahoma ruling

[West Virginia] Attorney encouraged by gay marriage rulings

How All 50 States Could Have Gay Marriage By 2016
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Gotta love this, from the second article:

A spokesman for Governor Bill Haslam Dave Smith said: “The law is clear here. Those decisions don’t affect Tennessee.”
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Looking at that map I am disgusted that my home state, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the two holdouts in moving toward marriage equality. I'm referring to holdouts among the "Blue Firewall." The Blue Firewall refers to 18 states that haven't carried for a Republican presidential candidate once after the 1980s. Those 18 states are: California; Connecticut; Vice President Joe Biden's home state Delaware; Hawaii; President Barack Obama's home state Illinois; Maine; Maryland; Massachusetts; Michigan; Minnesota (not since 1972); New Jersey; New York; Oregon; Pennsylvania; Rhode Island; Vermont; Washington; and Wisconsin.

Michigan and Pennsylvania like to elect governors from the opposition party (from that of an incumbent U.S. president in the White House). While I'm not saying anything more specific here about Pennsylvania, with Michigan we are on delay because of the effects of the results of the 2010 midterm elections in which the governor/lieutenant governor, as well as secretary of state and attorney general, are all from the Republican column. (It used to be split: governor/lieutenant governor from one party; secretary of state and attorney general from the opposing party.) They, in addition to a state congress in the Republican camp, are holding back Michigan. And this is a state which—ever since it moved over to the Democratic column for presidential elections (with a realigning map for Bill Clinton) in 1992—has performed a good 5 to 6 points more Democratic than the national margins over those six election cycles (1992 to 2012). And I totally expect that Rick Snyder, the fascist and incumbent Republican, will get re-elected the 48th Governor of Michigan this coming November. I blame part of this on a weak Michigan Democratic Party. I also blame part of this on a dimwitted Michigan voting electorate which is the type that basically figures, "If we carry Democratic for president, as well as the state's two U.S. senate seats, well that is all that matters."
 
CoolBlue71 said:
Looking at that map I am disgusted that my home state, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are the two holdouts in moving toward marriage equality.
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Michigan has a comfortable majority in favor, as much as 57% according to the latest poll, while Pennsylvania has a slight one.

You do not need your legislature. Michigan is an initiated amendment state. I would actually argue that one should go before this year's ballot. The support looks higher in your state than in Oregon!

However, there is also an upcoming trial scheduled for February 25 that would make such a campaign unnecessary in the event that a pro-gay ruling survives appellate review. In any event, there is no way the ban in your state will survive past 2016, if the Supreme Court does not get there first.
 
If Indiana indeed fails to put this on the ballot this year (either by killing it or amending it), then I hope another state moves to put it on the ballot for 2014. I think either Michigan or Ohio are the best bets, especially considering that the 6th Circuit may be a bit more unfriendly then the 10th.
 
scream4ever said:
If Indiana indeed fails to put this on the ballot this year (either by killing it or amending it), then I hope another state moves to put it on the ballot for 2014. I think either Michigan or Ohio are the best bets, especially considering that the 6th Circuit may be a bit more unfriendly then the 10th.
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I don't know if the 6th Circuit has been tested on gay rights issues, but the 10th did slap down Oklahoma's adoption ban.
 
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