What is new on the Gay Marriage front?

[CoolBlue71]

When in doubt, refer to the money.

Aren't people figuring that wealthy corporations are definitely wanting marriage equality?

The LGBT community, nationwide, is another source of consumers to whom these corporations can market.

The 6th Circuit's decision is prick-waving from two assholes wanting to fuck around with what they know is going to happen anyway. What pisses me off about this is that, of the "blue firewall" states which haven't carried Republican for a presidential candidate since after the 1980s, my home state Michigan is going to be the last on the timeline. I am not at all happy with my state.

 

[Ninja108]

When in doubt, refer to the money.

Aren't people figuring that wealthy corporations are definitely wanting marriage equality?

The LGBT community, nationwide, is another source of consumers to whom these corporations can market.

The 6th Circuit's decision is prick-waving from two assholes wanting to fuck around with what they know is going to happen anyway. What pisses me off about this is that, of the "blue firewall" states which haven't carried Republican for a presidential candidate since after the 1980s, my home state Michigan is going to be the last on the timeline. I am not at all happy with my state.

Indeed, this is them basically telling Scotus to rule and get it over with.

 

[Alnitak]

Kennedy will probably do the right thing, in the end, and support marriage equality. But that is far from certain. He voted against requiring the boy Scouts to admit gays ...

Apples to oranges.

The Boy Scouts case was about private discrimination. Romer, Lawrence, and Windsor were about government discrimination.

 

[palbert]

MISSOURI

After yesterday, a victory

Today, November 7, U.S. District Court Judge Ortrie D. Smith ruled in favor of the freedom to marry in a federal case from Missouri, striking down the state's marriage ban and paving the way for the freedom to marry to begin in the Show Me State.

http://www.freedomtomarry.org/blog/...i-paving-way-for-the-freedom-to-marry-in-show

Opinion at http://www.freedomtomarry.org/page/-/files/images/LawsonvKellyFederalRuling.pdf

 

[Kulindahr]

What are the chances there will be an appeal to an en banc 6th?

 

[Alnitak]

What are the chances there will be an appeal to an en banc 6th?

It's up to the clients. I'm sure the ACLU and GLAD attorneys are discussing it with April DeBoer and the other plaintiffs as you read this. I doubt they would be successful so they probably will just appeal right to the Supreme Court. Also, remember that there were multiple cases, so some could seek en banc while others skip it.

 

[Ninja108]

It's up to the clients. I'm sure the ACLU and GLAD attorneys are discussing it with April DeBoer and the other plaintiffs as you read this. I doubt they would be successful so they probably will just appeal right to the Supreme Court. Also, remember that there were multiple cases, so some could seek en banc while others skip it.

From what I've read, they are going straight to SCOTUS.

 

[palbert]

From what I've read, they are going straight to SCOTUS.

BuzzFeed is Tweeting that the Tennessee plaintiffs will go straight to the Supreme Court

 

[Alnitak]

From what I've read, they are going straight to SCOTUS.

Okay I wasn't sure if the ACLU represented all of the cases.

 

[Ninja108]

BuzzFeed is Tweeting that the Tennessee plaintiffs will go straight to the Supreme Court

Good, there is no point in bothering with the 6th. It is now a George W wasteland.

 

[palbert]

Kansas will appeal the decision to the 10th Circuit, en banc.



This means the stay will continue.

Tweet from Equality Case Files

"10th Circuit denies #Kansas stay pending appeal. Dist. Ct stay will expire Nov 11 at 5pm http:********/1z7bG4j @KansasEquality @aclukansas"

 

[Teddybear71]

So what happens if we - God forbid - lose the SCOTUS vote? Is the case for marriage equality lost for good?

Frankly, I'm amazed that this is still such an issue in an advanced country such as the US, and almost baffling that 4 SCOTUS judges are considered sure to vote against it. When did it go from the US bravely leading the world to the US being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the future?

Well, back on topic: When this goes to SCOTUS, will we have to wait until June for a ruling, or can they issue a verdict sooner?

 

[palbert]

Chris Geidner/BuzzFeed tweets

ALL FOUR STATES: Same-Sex Couples Heading To Supreme Court After Appeals Court Loss http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/same-sex-couples-lawyers-plan-next-steps-after-key-appeals-c …

 

[Alnitak]

So what happens if we - God forbid - lose the SCOTUS vote? Is the case for marriage equality lost for good?

In that unlikely but possible event all hell would break loose. Every ban struck down in federal court would be reinstated, Proposition 8 in California, Measure 36 in Oregon, etc. Quite simply we would have to go to initiative referendum in all those states that allow it. I reckon we could win everywhere now except the Deep South. It would be a costly and exhausting campaign, but one which would benefit from appearing on the 2016 ballot.

Frankly, I'm amazed that this is still such an issue in an advanced country such as the US, and almost baffling that 4 SCOTUS judges are considered sure to vote against it. When did it go from the US bravely leading the world to the US being dragged, kicking and screaming, into the future?

Well, back on topic: When this goes to SCOTUS, will we have to wait until June for a ruling, or can they issue a verdict sooner?

The US has a mixed record on civil rights. It is true that we have pioneered our form of representative democracy, but we are certainly not the first to have abolished slavery or granted universal suffrage. In terms of leadership, I ordinarily think of the US as a leader in three things: GDP, contemporary music, and military. In some ways I think we are leaders on this issue too. Massachusetts was only the fourth place in the world where you could get married. We are close to universal marriage equality in the US, perhaps just a few months away, while 90% of the world population doesn't have access to it.

 

[DonQuixote]

I can't believe they won't strike it down, after letting all of the other cases stand.
I read somewhere that some felt the court wanted some time for more states to adopt, see it wasn't the big boogey man the rednecks think it is, before they made national pronouncement. I half wonder if one of the judges on the Circuit Court of Appeals didn't vote nay just to force the issue.

 

[Ninja108]

In that unlikely but possible event all hell would break loose. Every ban struck down in federal court would be reinstated, Proposition 8 in California, Measure 36 in Oregon, etc. Quite simply we would have to go to initiative referendum in all those states that allow it. I reckon we could win everywhere now except the Deep South. It would be a costly and exhausting campaign, but one which would benefit from appearing on the 2016 ballot.

Indeed, and if the courts did that, you know every Republican in a Blue/Purple state or even states of light shades of Red will freak out.
This isn't 2004 anymore, it will be 2016.
If SCOTUS ruled against us, it would be our base coming out to clobber the bigots, not the other way around.

 

[hotatlboi]

I can't believe they won't strike it down, after letting all of the other cases stand.
I read somewhere that some felt the court wanted some time for more states to adopt, see it wasn't the big boogey man the rednecks think it is, before they made national pronouncement. I half wonder if one of the judges on the Circuit Court of Appeals didn't vote nay just to force the issue.

The dissenting opinion even raises that point of consideration.

 

[Kulindahr]

The US has a mixed record on civil rights. It is true that we have pioneered our form of representative democracy, but we are certainly not the first to have abolished slavery or granted universal suffrage. In terms of leadership, I ordinarily think of the US as a leader in three things: GDP, contemporary music, and military. In some ways I think we are leaders on this issue too. Massachusetts was only the fourth place in the world where you could get married. We are close to universal marriage equality in the US, perhaps just a few months away, while 90% of the world population doesn't have access to it.

In some ways the US is like the brilliant doctoral student in physics who shatters existing paradigms with a breakthrough thesis, but then never has another insight until retirement, just turning out supporting work for others' leads.

 

[hotatlboi]

So what happens if we - God forbid - lose the SCOTUS vote? Is the case for marriage equality lost for good?

If there were 5 votes for that they would have taken one of the previous cases.

All signs point to the fact that there are not, they will vote for full equality when the time comes, but they just wanted to wait longer (effectively one more year).

Also, because it only takes 4 votes to hear a case, its likely that even the minority knows they do not have the votes to overturn it at this point.

The final ruling will likely come in June 2016.

 

[scream4ever]

If there were 5 votes for that they would have taken one of the previous cases.

All signs point to the fact that there are not, they will vote for full equality when the time comes, but they just wanted to wait longer (effectively one more year).

Also, because it only takes 4 votes to hear a case, its likely that even the minority knows they do not have the votes to overturn it at this point.

The final ruling will likely come in June 2016.

You mean 2015 right? Cases which they grant cert to by January are generally heard and decided by the following summer.